uscryptomarketstructurebill

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may be getting close to the bottom of this downturn, according to analysts at Compass Point.
They believe that while short-term risk is still slightly to the downside, the market is now entering the final phase of the bear cycle

However, they also noted that a much deeper drop would likely require a major risk-off event in U.S. equities.

$60K–$68K Seen as Strong Bottom Zone

Compass Point’s base case expects Bitcoin to bottom between $60,000 and $68,000, with the strongest support near $65,000.

This range matters because long-term holders have historically accumulated heavily here.

Analysts pointed out that around 7% of long-term holder supply was acquired in this zone, showing strong conviction from patient buyers in past cycles.

ETF Outflows Are Adding Pressure

Bitcoin recently broke below $81,000 and fell as low as $74,500 over the weekend.
Analysts said this area reflects the average cost basis for both ETF investors and the broader market.
Since January 15, Bitcoin ETFs have reportedly seen nearly $3 billion in net outflows, and with more than half of ETF assets now underwater, outflows could remain elevated.
They also warned that the $81K–$83K zone may now act as overhead resistance.

The $70K–$80K Zone Is an “Air Pocket”

Compass Point described the price range between $70,000 and $80,000 as an “air pocket,” meaning there is little structural support in that region.
Less than 1% of long-term holder supply was acquired there, which could allow price to slide faster if selling pressure continues.

What If $60K Breaks?

If Bitcoin falls through the $60K–$68K support zone, analysts say the next major level could be around $55,000.
But they emphasized that this would likely require extreme conditions, similar to 2022 when an equity bear market and major crypto bankruptcies pushed BTC below its average cost basis.

Final Thoughts

Compass Point’s message is clear: the bear market may be entering its final innings, and the $60K–$68K range could be the key long-term floor.
Further downside is possible, but a major breakdown would likely need broader financial stress, especially in U.S. equities.
Stay cautious, watch support zones, and manage risk.

Not financial advice.


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