A recurring framework keeps resurfacing:
After
$BTC breaks a prior cycle high, the next macro bottom tends to form roughly 21–23 months later.
The historical rhythm is tight.
Post-2013 peak → ~23 months.
Post-2017 peak → ~21 months.
Post-2021 peak → ~23 months.
The repetition isn’t exact, but the clustering is hard to ignore.
If we anchor from the last confirmed ATH break, we are approaching that historical window again. Naturally, the question emerges:
Is Bitcoin nearing a cycle bottom in time?
But time symmetry alone doesn’t complete the picture.
Cycles don’t unfold in isolation. The macro backdrop in 2026 introduces a meaningful variable. If the U.S. economy slows materially and equities have not fully repriced risk, pressure across broader markets could still expand. Historically,
$BTC rarely forms durable bottoms before traditional markets finish their own deleveraging process.
Bitcoin is sensitive to liquidity conditions.
Liquidity is sensitive to macro policy and growth expectations.
That’s why the 21–23 month thesis should be treated as a probability framework, not a deterministic rule.
To evaluate whether we are truly near a structural floor, three layers must align:
• Time Structure – Are we within the historical window?
• Liquidity Conditions – Is global liquidity stabilizing or tightening?
• Technical Confirmation – Are higher timeframe lows forming with sustained absorption?
When previous cycle bottoms formed, they shared a few characteristics:
– Volatility compression after deep retracement
– Negative sentiment saturation
– Gradual improvement in long-term holder behavior
– Reduced systemic leverage
If those ingredients begin clustering inside the 21–23 month window, the probability of a cyclical floor increases.
But if macro risk expands while liquidity contracts, the time window alone won’t prevent further downside testing.
Markets operate on probabilities, not promises.
The real edge is not predicting the exact week of reversal.
It’s recognizing when asymmetry improves — when downside risk narrows relative to long-term positioning potential.
If this is indeed a temporal bottoming zone, the key question becomes strategic:
Have you defined allocation levels?
Have you mapped structural invalidation points?
Are you prepared to scale exposure gradually instead of chasing confirmation later?
Cycles reward preparation more than prediction.
Time may be aligning.
Now liquidity and structure must confirm.
#BTC #Crypto