TSS Trading
Daily crypto insights, technical analysis, and smart risk management. Learn to trade Bitcoin and altcoins with discipline and clarity.
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Bitcoin đã tạo đáy chưa? Có nên bắt đáy ở thời điểm hiện tại? LONG từ vùng 9x còn cơ hội về bờ được không ?
Sau nhịp giảm mạnh, $BTC đang khiến rất nhiều anh em phân vân giữa việc bắt đáy sớm hay tiếp tục chờ đợi xác nhận. Giá chậm lại không đồng nghĩa với tạo đáy, và việc mua vào khi cấu trúc chưa rõ ràng luôn đi kèm rủi ro cao.
Video này mình sẽ tập trung phân tích hành vi giá tại các vùng hỗ trợ quan trọng, đánh giá liệu lực bán đã thực sự suy yếu hay chưa,và đâu là tín hiệu cần có để một cú đảo chiều trở nên đáng tin cậy.Đồng thời, mình cũng sẽ nói rõ khả năng hồi phục của $BTC ngắn hạn
Sau nhịp giảm mạnh, $BTC đang khiến rất nhiều anh em phân vân giữa việc bắt đáy sớm hay tiếp tục chờ đợi xác nhận. Giá chậm lại không đồng nghĩa với tạo đáy, và việc mua vào khi cấu trúc chưa rõ ràng luôn đi kèm rủi ro cao.
Video này mình sẽ tập trung phân tích hành vi giá tại các vùng hỗ trợ quan trọng, đánh giá liệu lực bán đã thực sự suy yếu hay chưa,và đâu là tín hiệu cần có để một cú đảo chiều trở nên đáng tin cậy.Đồng thời, mình cũng sẽ nói rõ khả năng hồi phục của $BTC ngắn hạn
What to actually look for in a real $BTC reversal structure.
A proper reversal usually starts with signs of seller exhaustion, not just price slowing down. Long lower wicks after an extended selloff often show sellers getting absorbed at key levels. That alone isn’t enough, but it’s the first hint that downside pressure may be weakening.
Next, you want to see a strong bullish reaction — ideally a bullish engulfing close that comes after the selloff, not during chop. Where this candle forms matters just as much as how it looks. Reversal signals that appear at major support or structural levels carry far more weight than anything forming mid-range.
After the initial reaction, structure needs to improve. The market should hold above the reaction low and start printing higher lows on the following candles. That’s where intent shows up and where probability begins to shift.
One important reminder: a single candle is only a signal, not confirmation. Real confirmation comes from follow-through and structure reclaim, not from hoping the first green candle is “the bottom.”
A proper reversal usually starts with signs of seller exhaustion, not just price slowing down. Long lower wicks after an extended selloff often show sellers getting absorbed at key levels. That alone isn’t enough, but it’s the first hint that downside pressure may be weakening.
Next, you want to see a strong bullish reaction — ideally a bullish engulfing close that comes after the selloff, not during chop. Where this candle forms matters just as much as how it looks. Reversal signals that appear at major support or structural levels carry far more weight than anything forming mid-range.
After the initial reaction, structure needs to improve. The market should hold above the reaction low and start printing higher lows on the following candles. That’s where intent shows up and where probability begins to shift.
One important reminder: a single candle is only a signal, not confirmation. Real confirmation comes from follow-through and structure reclaim, not from hoping the first green candle is “the bottom.”
Why Bitcoin Dropped From 120K to 76K — And Why This Was Inevitable
Bitcoin dropping nearly 40% from the 120K high shocked a lot of people.
But from a market perspective, this wasn’t chaos — it was a textbook sequence.
No drama. No mystery. Just structure doing its job.
1. The move into 120K was overheated
Before topping, BTC had:
•A fast, near-vertical expansion
•Very shallow pullbacks
•Elevated funding and expanding open interest
•Retail FOMO chasing momentum, not structure
When price accelerates faster than liquidity can build, the market always needs a pressure release.
That release doesn’t come gently.
2. Excessive leverage created a liquidation cascade
At the highs:
•Late longs piled in
•Leverage increased
•Stops were tight and obvious
One aggressive sell was enough to trigger:
•Initial long liquidations
•Forced market sells
•A cascading effect as price pushed lower
This wasn’t emotional selling.
It was derivatives mechanics playing out exactly as designed.
3. Large players sold into liquidity — not the top
Funds and large holders didn’t need perfection.
They needed depth.
At 120K:
•Liquidity was thick
•Retail demand was aggressive
•FOMO provided the exit
Smart money doesn’t sell the top candle.
They sell when buyers are most desperate to own.
4. Macro conditions stopped supporting risk
At the same time:
•The dollar caught a bid
•Yields moved higher
•Risk assets came under pressure
Bitcoin doesn’t trade in isolation.
When macro tightens, speculative positioning is the first to unwind.
5. A 30–40% correction is normal in BTC uptrends
History is clear:
•BTC regularly corrects 30–50% during bull cycles
•Even in the strongest trends
These moves:
•Reset leverage
•Flush weak hands
•Rebuild a healthier structure
A 40% drawdown doesn’t end a cycle.
It keeps it alive.
What this move actually means
This drop doesn’t say Bitcoin is “dead.”
It says:
•The market needed to clean itself
•Price needed to return to a sustainable zone
•Risk management mattered more than conviction
The market doesn’t reward belief.
It rewards positioning.
Final thought
Bitcoin didn’t fall because someone hates crypto.
It fell because markets need losers to function.
40% from the top hurts —
but for Bitcoin, it’s just the language of the cycle.
The real question isn’t how much price dropped.
It’s where you were positioned when it happened.
But from a market perspective, this wasn’t chaos — it was a textbook sequence.
No drama. No mystery. Just structure doing its job.
1. The move into 120K was overheated
Before topping, BTC had:
•A fast, near-vertical expansion
•Very shallow pullbacks
•Elevated funding and expanding open interest
•Retail FOMO chasing momentum, not structure
When price accelerates faster than liquidity can build, the market always needs a pressure release.
That release doesn’t come gently.
2. Excessive leverage created a liquidation cascade
At the highs:
•Late longs piled in
•Leverage increased
•Stops were tight and obvious
One aggressive sell was enough to trigger:
•Initial long liquidations
•Forced market sells
•A cascading effect as price pushed lower
This wasn’t emotional selling.
It was derivatives mechanics playing out exactly as designed.
3. Large players sold into liquidity — not the top
Funds and large holders didn’t need perfection.
They needed depth.
At 120K:
•Liquidity was thick
•Retail demand was aggressive
•FOMO provided the exit
Smart money doesn’t sell the top candle.
They sell when buyers are most desperate to own.
4. Macro conditions stopped supporting risk
At the same time:
•The dollar caught a bid
•Yields moved higher
•Risk assets came under pressure
Bitcoin doesn’t trade in isolation.
When macro tightens, speculative positioning is the first to unwind.
5. A 30–40% correction is normal in BTC uptrends
History is clear:
•BTC regularly corrects 30–50% during bull cycles
•Even in the strongest trends
These moves:
•Reset leverage
•Flush weak hands
•Rebuild a healthier structure
A 40% drawdown doesn’t end a cycle.
It keeps it alive.
What this move actually means
This drop doesn’t say Bitcoin is “dead.”
It says:
•The market needed to clean itself
•Price needed to return to a sustainable zone
•Risk management mattered more than conviction
The market doesn’t reward belief.
It rewards positioning.
Final thought
Bitcoin didn’t fall because someone hates crypto.
It fell because markets need losers to function.
40% from the top hurts —
but for Bitcoin, it’s just the language of the cycle.
The real question isn’t how much price dropped.
It’s where you were positioned when it happened.
ĐU ĐỈNH VÀNG 190 TRIỆU CÓ VỀ BỜ ĐƯỢC KHÔNG ???
xem hết video chỉ tiết dưới đây để biết xử hướng vàng trong thời gian sắp tới $XAU
#GOLD_UPDATE #GOLD
xem hết video chỉ tiết dưới đây để biết xử hướng vàng trong thời gian sắp tới $XAU
#GOLD_UPDATE #GOLD
If you don’t understand this, you’ll keep losing money trading
Most traders don’t lose because of bad strategies — they lose because of bad behavior.
You don’t need to trade all the time. No edge = no trade.
A stop loss is a rule, not a suggestion. Move it and you’re gambling.
Winning small and losing big will destroy any account.
More trades don’t mean more profit — patience does.
No clear plan means you’ll change your mind every candle.
If you can’t accept a loss before entering, you’ll manage the trade poorly.
You’re losing because you lack discipline and risk control.
Most traders don’t lose because of bad strategies — they lose because of bad behavior.
You don’t need to trade all the time. No edge = no trade.
A stop loss is a rule, not a suggestion. Move it and you’re gambling.
Winning small and losing big will destroy any account.
More trades don’t mean more profit — patience does.
No clear plan means you’ll change your mind every candle.
If you can’t accept a loss before entering, you’ll manage the trade poorly.
You’re losing because you lack discipline and risk control.
THE BIGGEST METALS WIPEOUT 💥
Over $7 TRILLION vanished from the precious metals market
in just 36 hours.
Silver: -30% → below $85
$1.96T in market value erased.$XAG
Gold: -13.6% → below $4,900
Nearly $5T wiped out.$XAU
Platinum: -27.25% → under $2,100
$215B gone.
Palladium: -21.5% → below $1,700
$85B erased.
No headlines.
No panic button.
Just brutal reality.
Over $7 TRILLION vanished from the precious metals market
in just 36 hours.
Silver: -30% → below $85
$1.96T in market value erased.$XAG
Gold: -13.6% → below $4,900
Nearly $5T wiped out.$XAU
Platinum: -27.25% → under $2,100
$215B gone.
Palladium: -21.5% → below $1,700
$85B erased.
No headlines.
No panic button.
Just brutal reality.
Bitcoin’s supply story is something most people still underestimate.
Since 2020, $BTC total supply has only expanded by ~10%.
Put that into perspective:
Gold supply grew by roughly ~15% over the same period.
USD money supply expanded by a staggering ~45%.
That gap matters.
With less than ~1 million $BTC left to be mined, Bitcoin’s future supply growth is mathematically capped and slowing every cycle. New issuance keeps getting cut, while demand doesn’t need to explode — it just needs to stay steady.
Compare that to gold. New gold deposits are discovered and brought online every year. Production responds to price. Bitcoin doesn’t care about price — its issuance schedule is fixed and blind to demand.
That’s why $BTC scarcity isn’t a narrative.
It’s a hard-coded constraint, and over time, that asymmetry becomes impossible for markets to ignore.
Since 2020, $BTC total supply has only expanded by ~10%.
Put that into perspective:
Gold supply grew by roughly ~15% over the same period.
USD money supply expanded by a staggering ~45%.
That gap matters.
With less than ~1 million $BTC left to be mined, Bitcoin’s future supply growth is mathematically capped and slowing every cycle. New issuance keeps getting cut, while demand doesn’t need to explode — it just needs to stay steady.
Compare that to gold. New gold deposits are discovered and brought online every year. Production responds to price. Bitcoin doesn’t care about price — its issuance schedule is fixed and blind to demand.
That’s why $BTC scarcity isn’t a narrative.
It’s a hard-coded constraint, and over time, that asymmetry becomes impossible for markets to ignore.
Silver market update
Price explosion: Silver just tagged $118.87/oz, up +56% in a single month. In Vietnam, physical silver bars have pushed above 121M VND/kg.
Record liquidity: Daily turnover is exploding at $80–200B/day. SLV alone is trading $35–38B, basically on par with the S&P 500 — that’s not normal, that’s full-blown mania-level activity.
Physical supply crunch: Massive demand from China (EVs, solar, AI infrastructure) is draining global inventories. Shanghai silver is trading at a $17/oz premium over London, a clear signal of real-world scarcity.
ETF paradox: Institutions are pulling physical silver out of ETFs to sell into higher-priced markets. Result? SLV can’t expand supply even though paper demand is exploding.
👉 This isn’t just a rally.
$XAG is going through the largest physical supply squeeze in history, turning it into one of the hottest growth assets of early 2026.
Crowded? Yes.
But this move is being driven by real metal, not just screens.
Price explosion: Silver just tagged $118.87/oz, up +56% in a single month. In Vietnam, physical silver bars have pushed above 121M VND/kg.
Record liquidity: Daily turnover is exploding at $80–200B/day. SLV alone is trading $35–38B, basically on par with the S&P 500 — that’s not normal, that’s full-blown mania-level activity.
Physical supply crunch: Massive demand from China (EVs, solar, AI infrastructure) is draining global inventories. Shanghai silver is trading at a $17/oz premium over London, a clear signal of real-world scarcity.
ETF paradox: Institutions are pulling physical silver out of ETFs to sell into higher-priced markets. Result? SLV can’t expand supply even though paper demand is exploding.
👉 This isn’t just a rally.
$XAG is going through the largest physical supply squeeze in history, turning it into one of the hottest growth assets of early 2026.
Crowded? Yes.
But this move is being driven by real metal, not just screens.
Altseason won’t be a spray-and-pray game anymore.
This market has grown up.
Blindly throwing money at every low-cap pump is how you get chopped, not rich.
The real trigger will be $BTC dominance rolling over.
The real confirmation will be $ETH stepping into leadership and holding it.
Until those two align, what we’re seeing in alts is quiet structure building — accumulation, compression, and selective strength, not broad mania.
This cycle won’t reward noise.
It’ll reward utility, real flows, and patience.
Pick strength.
Pick structure.
Not hype.
This market has grown up.
Blindly throwing money at every low-cap pump is how you get chopped, not rich.
The real trigger will be $BTC dominance rolling over.
The real confirmation will be $ETH stepping into leadership and holding it.
Until those two align, what we’re seeing in alts is quiet structure building — accumulation, compression, and selective strength, not broad mania.
This cycle won’t reward noise.
It’ll reward utility, real flows, and patience.
Pick strength.
Pick structure.
Not hype.
Market alert: $XAU is EXTREMELY overbought.
Data as of 29/01/2026 is flashing major pullback risk:
Price: Global ~$5,508 (+1.69% day) | SJC ~184.2m VND — fresh ATH
Momentum: +27% in just 1 month. That’s a stretched, unsustainable move — price is being force-pushed, not built.
Macro: Yes, geopolitical tension + weak DXY (~97) are tailwinds, but $5,500 is a psychological wall where profit-taking will be aggressive.
Reality check:
This is pure crowd-driven euphoria at the highs.
When everyone is lining up to buy, risk/reward flips hard.
👉 Stay sharp.
This is a zone to consider taking profit or staying sidelined, not chasing.$XAU
Data as of 29/01/2026 is flashing major pullback risk:
Price: Global ~$5,508 (+1.69% day) | SJC ~184.2m VND — fresh ATH
Momentum: +27% in just 1 month. That’s a stretched, unsustainable move — price is being force-pushed, not built.
Macro: Yes, geopolitical tension + weak DXY (~97) are tailwinds, but $5,500 is a psychological wall where profit-taking will be aggressive.
Reality check:
This is pure crowd-driven euphoria at the highs.
When everyone is lining up to buy, risk/reward flips hard.
👉 Stay sharp.
This is a zone to consider taking profit or staying sidelined, not chasing.$XAU
$XAG just printed a record weekly trading volume of $80B — a number that normally takes an entire year to reach.
The main driver is exploding physical demand, especially from China. Dealers are aggressively stockpiling silver to meet delivery needs, which is fueling both price expansion and abnormal volume at the same time.
And it doesn’t stop there — Uranium has officially made a new ATH 🥲
Strange market conditions: Crypto keeps dumping, metals keep grinding higher.
Is this the future of “technology”… or are we all becoming commodity traders again? 🥲
$XAG
The main driver is exploding physical demand, especially from China. Dealers are aggressively stockpiling silver to meet delivery needs, which is fueling both price expansion and abnormal volume at the same time.
And it doesn’t stop there — Uranium has officially made a new ATH 🥲
Strange market conditions: Crypto keeps dumping, metals keep grinding higher.
Is this the future of “technology”… or are we all becoming commodity traders again? 🥲
$XAG
$BTC / Gold — this is not just another ratio chart.
BTC/Gold is pressing right into its 14-year parabolic support, a level that has defined Bitcoin’s relative strength against hard money for more than a decade. Every major cycle expansion respected this curve. Every time it was tested, the market made a decision — trend continuation or regime shift.
From a technical perspective, momentum is clearly compressing here. The ratio has been putting in lower highs, while downside pressure is getting absorbed right at the parabola. Volume has thinned out into the level, which usually signals a decision point, not a continuation grind. RSI is hovering near historical support zones on the ratio, suggesting we’re late in the move, not early.
If this parabolic structure fails, it’s not just a small breakdown. It would imply a macro relative trend reversal, meaning Bitcoin would likelk underperform hard assets for an extended period — something we’ve only seen during deep bear phases. That kind of loss of structure would open the door to accelerated downside and long-term re-pricing.
On the flip side, holding this curve keeps the macro thesis intact. It maintains Bitcoin’s long-term outperformance trend and sets the stage for another expansion leg once risk appetite rotates back.
This level matters.
Lose it, and the damage is structural — not emotional.$XAU
BTC/Gold is pressing right into its 14-year parabolic support, a level that has defined Bitcoin’s relative strength against hard money for more than a decade. Every major cycle expansion respected this curve. Every time it was tested, the market made a decision — trend continuation or regime shift.
From a technical perspective, momentum is clearly compressing here. The ratio has been putting in lower highs, while downside pressure is getting absorbed right at the parabola. Volume has thinned out into the level, which usually signals a decision point, not a continuation grind. RSI is hovering near historical support zones on the ratio, suggesting we’re late in the move, not early.
If this parabolic structure fails, it’s not just a small breakdown. It would imply a macro relative trend reversal, meaning Bitcoin would likelk underperform hard assets for an extended period — something we’ve only seen during deep bear phases. That kind of loss of structure would open the door to accelerated downside and long-term re-pricing.
On the flip side, holding this curve keeps the macro thesis intact. It maintains Bitcoin’s long-term outperformance trend and sets the stage for another expansion leg once risk appetite rotates back.
This level matters.
Lose it, and the damage is structural — not emotional.$XAU
We’ve seen this $BTC pattern before 👀
Same structure.
Same price behavior.
Exactly like 2021.
If the 4-year cycle still matters, $BTC could flush to $25k within two weeks ⏳
Most people won’t be ready.
They never are.
Are you positioned for what’s next? 🧠$BTC
Same structure.
Same price behavior.
Exactly like 2021.
If the 4-year cycle still matters, $BTC could flush to $25k within two weeks ⏳
Most people won’t be ready.
They never are.
Are you positioned for what’s next? 🧠$BTC
$RIVER & $ZEC — Short DONE
Both shorts hit full TP cleanly.
No drama, no hesitation — full profits secured. Well executed 🤝
$SOL — Short update
Still tracking perfectly with the plan.
Structure and momentum remain bearish.
– Trail SL to entry or a profitable level
– Let price continue doing the work
Stay patient. Protect gains. Keep it mechanical.
Both shorts hit full TP cleanly.
No drama, no hesitation — full profits secured. Well executed 🤝
$SOL — Short update
Still tracking perfectly with the plan.
Structure and momentum remain bearish.
– Trail SL to entry or a profitable level
– Let price continue doing the work
Stay patient. Protect gains. Keep it mechanical.
$RIVER bounce looks weak — sellers still in control.
SHORT $RIVER
Entry: 58.0 – 59.0
SL: 61.5
TP1: 55.5
TP2: 53.0
TP3: 50.0
Price is failing to hold above the recent bounce high and getting rejected back into prior supply. No clean reclaim, momentum stays heavy and structure remains corrective. As long as 61.5 caps, this move looks like distribution before another push down to sweep liquidity below.
$RIVER
SHORT $RIVER
Entry: 58.0 – 59.0
SL: 61.5
TP1: 55.5
TP2: 53.0
TP3: 50.0
Price is failing to hold above the recent bounce high and getting rejected back into prior supply. No clean reclaim, momentum stays heavy and structure remains corrective. As long as 61.5 caps, this move looks like distribution before another push down to sweep liquidity below.
$RIVER
$SOL looks heavy here — bounce is getting sold, not accepted.
SHORT $SOL
Entry: 126.5 – 127.5
SL: 134
TP1: 121
TP2: 117
TP3: 112
Price stalled right under prior supply and failed to reclaim the 127–128 area with any momentum. Each push up is seeing quick rejection, showing distribution rather than continuation. Momentum is fading and structure is still corrective after the last leg down. As long as 132 isn’t reclaimed, this looks like another leg lower hunting liquidity below.
SHORT $SOL
Entry: 126.5 – 127.5
SL: 134
TP1: 121
TP2: 117
TP3: 112
Price stalled right under prior supply and failed to reclaim the 127–128 area with any momentum. Each push up is seeing quick rejection, showing distribution rather than continuation. Momentum is fading and structure is still corrective after the last leg down. As long as 132 isn’t reclaimed, this looks like another leg lower hunting liquidity below.
South Korea tightens the screws on crypto & real estate.
Homebuyers in regulated areas — including Seoul — will soon be required to disclose crypto sale proceeds when submitting funding plans for property purchases.$BTC
The Korea Real Estate Board is finalizing system updates, and once the amended Transaction Reporting Act is approved by the Cabinet, the rule takes effect immediately — no grace period.
Clear message: crypto gains are now fully on the radar when it comes to housing.
Homebuyers in regulated areas — including Seoul — will soon be required to disclose crypto sale proceeds when submitting funding plans for property purchases.$BTC
The Korea Real Estate Board is finalizing system updates, and once the amended Transaction Reporting Act is approved by the Cabinet, the rule takes effect immediately — no grace period.
Clear message: crypto gains are now fully on the radar when it comes to housing.
$ETH – push into this level getting sold, upside losing acceptance.
Short $ETH
Entry: 2980–3020
SL: 3120
TP: 2860 / 2720
Price pushed into the 2980–3020 zone but failed to hold above it, with repeated stalls showing supply overhead. The move up looks stretched and momentum is starting to roll over after the push. As long as $ETH stays below 3020, structure favors a pullback toward the lower support rather than continuation higher.
Short $ETH
Entry: 2980–3020
SL: 3120
TP: 2860 / 2720
Price pushed into the 2980–3020 zone but failed to hold above it, with repeated stalls showing supply overhead. The move up looks stretched and momentum is starting to roll over after the push. As long as $ETH stays below 3020, structure favors a pullback toward the lower support rather than continuation higher.
$BTC – bounce running into supply, upside losing traction.
Short $BTC
Entry: 88,500–89,300
SL: 92,000
TP: 86,200 / 83,500 / 80,800
Price pushed back into the 88.8k–89.5k area but couldn’t get clean acceptance above it. The rebound looks corrective, with momentum stalling and buyers failing to follow through at higher levels. As long as $BTC stays below the 90k zone, structure favors a pullback rather than continuation higher.
Short $BTC
Entry: 88,500–89,300
SL: 92,000
TP: 86,200 / 83,500 / 80,800
Price pushed back into the 88.8k–89.5k area but couldn’t get clean acceptance above it. The rebound looks corrective, with momentum stalling and buyers failing to follow through at higher levels. As long as $BTC stays below the 90k zone, structure favors a pullback rather than continuation higher.
$ZEC – push higher getting rejected, sellers still in control here.
Short $ZEC
Entry: 385–400
SL: 418
TP: 360 / 330
Price pushed into the 390–395 zone but failed to get clean acceptance above it, with multiple rejections showing supply sitting overhead. The move up looks stretched and momentum is starting to roll over after the push. As long as $ZEC stays below 395, structure favors a pullback toward the lower support rather than continuation higher.
Short $ZEC
Entry: 385–400
SL: 418
TP: 360 / 330
Price pushed into the 390–395 zone but failed to get clean acceptance above it, with multiple rejections showing supply sitting overhead. The move up looks stretched and momentum is starting to roll over after the push. As long as $ZEC stays below 395, structure favors a pullback toward the lower support rather than continuation higher.
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