The crypto market has reached a critical moment.
After nearly two months of sideways movement, Bitcoin has finally broken out. This move was mainly driven by cooling Core CPI data, which increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will be forced to ease monetary policy faster.
While this breakout looks promising, the next 36 hours will be far more important. Two major events could either strengthen this rally or completely stall it.
Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Today at 10am ET, the Supreme Court of the United States will issue a ruling on Trump-era tariffs.
Trump has recently stated that if the ruling goes against tariffs, it would be very bad for the U.S. economy. Market expectations are currently leaning toward a decision against tariffs.
This creates uncertainty for crypto.
When tariffs were announced in April 2025, the crypto market experienced a sharp crash. Based on that reaction, a ruling against tariffs should be positive for risk assets, including crypto.
There is also a monetary angle. The Fed has remained hawkish because tariffs are expected to add inflation. If tariffs are removed, inflation pressure may fall, allowing interest rates to come down faster. Lower rates have historically been bullish for crypto.
However, there is another risk.
Over the last six months, U.S. stock markets have consistently hit new highs. Trump has repeatedly claimed this strength is due to tariffs, and many market participants agree to some extent. If tariffs are struck down, equities could correct, and crypto could follow due to strong correlation with stocks.
This uncertainty is likely to cause strong volatility across all markets.
The Clarity Act Vote
Tomorrow at 10am ET, the U.S. Senate will hold a markup session and vote on the Clarity Act. If it passes, the bill will move forward to a full Senate vote.
Current market estimates give around a 56 percent chance that the Clarity Act becomes law this year.
The Clarity Act could introduce major structural changes to the crypto industry:
Exchanges would be required to perform regular verification, reducing the risk of bank-run style collapses like FTX.
Builders would be allowed to openly discuss development plans and roadmaps.
Crypto exchanges would operate under clear regulatory frameworks.
Wash trading and market manipulation could be reduced significantly.
Most crypto tokens would no longer be treated as securities.
This level of clarity would reduce systemic risk and give institutions confidence to invest beyond Bitcoin. It could also open the door for pension funds to gain regulated exposure to crypto.
The vote tomorrow is only the first step, but if it passes, the probability of full approval increases sharply.
Conclusion
2026 has started on a positive note for crypto. Bitcoin is moving higher, and altcoins are showing strength.
However, the next 36 hours will be decisive. These events could either slow the current momentum or act as the catalyst that sends the market into a much stronger phase.
Volatility is expected. Direction will depend on how these decisions unfold.
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