The Rational Crypto

If you want BTC to rise again and recover your losses, maybe it’s time to write a letter to Satoshi Nakamoto.

Dear Satoshi,

If you are still alive,

If you still have access to your private keys,

And if you truly have no intention of spending your coins,

It would be a great gift to the ecosystem if you sent those early mined coins to a burn address.

Sincerely,

The market. #btc

Bitcoin touches $70,000 before fading as altcoins lead the strongest bounce in weeks
Ether, solana, and cardano all outpaced bitcoin on the day, suggesting a rotation into higher-beta tokens as forced selling from the February crash begins to clear.
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/26/bitcoin-touches-usd70k-before-fading-as-altcoins-lead-the-strongest-bounce-in-weeks

So what’s next?

I’ve redrawn the broken bear pennant using the latest swing low, and the structure now looks much cleaner than the previous failed setup.

Technically, the measured move from this pennant points toward the $40K area — something to keep in mind. That said, I see this scenario as low probability considering the higher-timeframe support zones, key moving averages, volume profile, liquidation heatmaps, and an already overheated RSI.

My base case is a move toward the April 2025 low first. The most bullish outcome would be a strong reclaim before February closes.

The “Japanese Fish-Eating” Trading Method

The “Japanese fish-eating” approach in crypto trading is a strategy built on selective opportunity and technical analysis. Instead of trying to catch the exact bottom or sell at the absolute top — which is extremely difficult and risky — the trader focuses only on the “best meat” of the fish: the middle part of a clearly established trend.

To apply this method, traders rely on technical tools such as trendlines, moving averages (MA), RSI, MACD, and key support–resistance zones to confirm trend direction.

For example, when a reversal candle signals a shift from bearish to bullish momentum — supported by other indicators — the trader waits for a few more candles to confirm the trend. Once the bottom is clearly formed, a long position is opened. Later, when a reversal from bullish to bearish appears and the top is reasonably confirmed, the position is closed.

The goal is to capture the clean middle portion of the move, while avoiding the “head and tail” — the top and bottom — which are the hardest and riskiest parts to trade.

By combining multiple technical tools, traders can improve probability, reduce false signals, and maintain a more disciplined, sustainable trading strategy.

In thin liquidity conditions, the market’s main objective is to seek out liquidity pools.

Recently, low-leverage longs below 65K were taken out. Now, the focus appears to be on short positions stacked above 72K.

Be careful not to turn bullish at the wrong time. #btc

People were blaming CZ and Binance, but the real driver behind the move was Jane Street.
#MarketDownturn

If we begin to see the Supertrend indicators flip from red to green across major crypto assets and crypto-related stocks, it could set the stage for a strong March–April.

A broader trend shift like that would signal momentum turning back in favor of the bulls. #mstr

#sol is trading within a very clean daily range right now.

If it breaks out to the upside and holds, $120 could be the next target.

If it breaks down, we already know what that likely means.

Either way, a decisive move would be much better than this ongoing chop.

Solana's price outlook hinges on its ability to convert high-speed tech into sustained adoption amid fierce competition.

Network Upgrades – The Alpenglow consensus overhaul targets sub-second finality in 2026, a potential catalyst for institutional use.

ETF & Institutional Adoption – A potential U.S. spot ETF and partnerships (e.g., PayPal, Ondo) could unlock significant capital inflows.

Network Health vs. Rivals – Declining active addresses and validator centralization pose risks as competitors like Sui and Aptos advance. #sol

Total crypto market cap today stands at $2.35 trillion, showing the overall value of the entire digital asset space.

24-hour trading volume is $123.36 billion, reflecting strong liquidity and ongoing market activity. #market

Bitcoin is approaching a key decision point.

Earlier this week, BTC lost the 200-week EMA (black line), a level that had been acting as strong support. Once lost, this level can flip into resistance during a bounce.

Now we’re seeing that bounce.

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the 200-week EMA and gets rejected, it would confirm the breakdown and open the door for further downside — something we’ve seen repeatedly in past market cycles. #BTC

After the rain comes the sunshine.
Bitcoin hit $125k at the end of 2025.
That was the peak of a strong cycle.
Markets don’t move in straight lines.
They expand. They correct. They reset.

A pullback isn’t the end.
It’s the cost of a bull market.
Crypto is volatile by nature.
If it only went up, it wouldn’t be crypto.
But zoom out.

As long as the United States continues printing USD to finance deficits and buy goods from the world, monetary expansion remains structural.

And Bitcoin exists for exactly that reason.
Limited supply.
No central printer.
Global liquidity magnet.
Short term: fear.
Mid term: consolidation.
Long term: math.
Stay calm.
Observe.

Think in decades, not days.
After every storm in this market, the sun has always returned.
And capital always flows toward scarcity. #btc

Stay silent and observe when the market feels like a train that has lost its brakes #MarketDownturn

Bitcoin, Ethereum jump 3% in one day as Trump’s State of the Union address lifts crypto sentiment 25/02/2026

✅ Crypto is a risk asset → it reacts more strongly to market sentiment than to the actual content of a speech.

✅ Macro politics creates narratives → even without direct policy decisions, the market treats political signals as indicators for the outlook of risk assets.

✅ Expectations move markets more than facts → positive anticipation often pushes prices up before any concrete news is confirmed. #BTC

What is PiRC1?
PiRC1 (Pi Request for Comment 1) is an open token standard proposal within the Pi ecosystem.
Like Ethereum’s ERC standards, it defines how tokens should be structured and issued.
However, PiRC1 is designed with stronger product integration and sustainability in mind — not just token creation.

PiRC1 is proof that Pi Network is not chasing short-term trends.

They are building infrastructure for an economy.

While many other projects are busy with “yield farming” or leverage strategies, Pi Network is quietly refining PiRC1 — preparing for a future where blockchain-based payments become as natural as breathing.
That is what true real-world blockchain adoption looks like at the deepest level. #PiNetwork

Who I am and why I write about Crypto? https://www.hokanews.com/2023/09/breaking-news-vietnam-publishes-book-pi.html

Before you enter crypto, ask yourself one question:
Who are you?
And who do you want to become?
This market doesn’t just test your strategy.
It reveals your identity.

Are you a:
1️⃣ Trader
Living on volatility.
Thriving on timing and discipline.
2️⃣ Holder
Believing in long-term capital migration.
Ignoring short-term noise.
3️⃣ Miner
Supporting infrastructure.
Thinking in years, not days.
4️⃣ Game Creator
Building tokens, systems, narratives.
Designing the rules — not playing them.

Most people don’t lose because they chose the wrong coin.
They lose because they chose the wrong identity.
In crypto, clarity is capital.
So tell me —
Who are you becoming? 👇

– The Rational Crypto #trader #holder

Do you know that coin?