4 year cycle is NOT the same as stock-to-flow model.
The 4 year cycle says that the year after a halving is a bull year, like 2013, 2017, 2021 🟩🟥🟩🟩 and 2025 did obviously not fit that pattern.
But S2F says nothing about bull or bear, top or bottom. S2F is the thesis that scarcity drives value, that bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because BTC is scarcer than gold. S2F models the rough path of nonlinear phase transitions towards $30T+. S2F roughly models the average price during a 4 year cycle (regardless of which years are bull or bear). Current cycle average is $90k, clearly above past cycle's average of $34k, and is still going towards S2F $250k-$1m range (2 years to go) IMO. I still fundamentally believe that.
Here are 3 Key safety practices 1) Always Verify Payment Directly. As a seller ,never release your cryptocurrency solely based on a buyers screenshot, a text messa or an email notification. Scammers can use AI and other tools to create a convincing fake Payment proofs .Log into your actual bank account or e-wallet to confirm the funds are available & cleared. 2) Avoid THIRD -PARTY Payments. The name on the Payment method used by the buyer should exactly match their verified name on the P2P platform .Do not accept payment from 3rd party,as this is a major red flag and can lead to charge back fraud or bank account freeze . 3) Keep Communication On -Platform. Avoid request to move your conversation to external apps like WhatsApp,telegram or email .Official platform can only intervene in disputes & access that records if the conversation occurred within their system. Be careful when trading p2p . #P2PScam #P2PScamAwareness
$BTC on 1D Timeframe has formed a Fair Value Gap between $92326 -$9500 due Manipulation-Increased inflows . However holding OB support $94400 If we lose the support it mighty land to $92k again .THEN a HUGE PUMP again . A little pullback is HEALTHY. #MarketRebound
#StrategyBTCPurchase Bitcoin rose 2.69% to $94,222 over 24h, slightly outpacing the crypto market’s 2.59% gain. This extends a 6.25% monthly uptrend but remains below 90-day levels. Key drivers:
●Corporate Treasury Expansion (Bullish Impact)
Strive Asset Management secured shareholder approval to acquire Semler Scientific, transferring 5,048 BTC ($472M at current prices) to its balance sheet. This brings Strive’s total Bitcoin holdings to 12,798 BTC – making it a top-15 corporate holder globally. this means: The deal permanently removes liquid supply from markets, echoing MicroStrategy’s accumulation strategy. Reduced sell-side pressure historically correlates with mid-term price support, especially when institutional adoption grows.
●Inflation Data Calms Rate Fears (Bullish Impact)
December’s U.S. CPI rose 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y), aligning with forecasts. Core inflation held at 0.2% m/m, signaling contained price pressures. this means: Predictable inflation metrics lower perceived Fed hawkishness, boosting risk assets. Bitcoin’s 1.62% intraday jump post-CPI release reflected relief among duration-sensitive investors. Sustained low rates improve Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
According to Glassnode $BTC Over the past 6 months, Bitcoin treasuries held by public and private companies have grown from ~854K BTC to ~1.11M BTC. That’s an increase of ~260K BTC, or roughly ~43K BTC per month, highlighting the steady expansion of corporate balance-sheet exposure to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s next wave of believers won’t come from ETFs, it’ll come from collapsing currencies.
Iran's Rial just hit 1,470,000 to the dollar. Down 40% since June.
This isn’t geopolitics noise, it’s 90 million people learning why Bitcoin exists.
The pattern is undeniable: Venezuela's currency collapsed. They moved oil revenue into USDT. Tether froze 41 wallets. Iran watched. Took notes. They moved to USDT too. Tether froze 42 more wallets in July.
There are only two kinds of money: Freezable. Unfreezable.
Stable coins? A leash. Gold? Can't move it. Yuan? CCP strings attached.
Every door closes except one.
The number that matters: $4.18 billion flowed out of Iran into crypto last year. Up 70%.
The asymmetry: Markets price war as fear. Bitcoin absorbs war as adoption.
There's always a lag.
Venezuela taught the playbook. Iran is running it.
Venezuela Just Proved the Bitcoin Bull Case, And No One Is Paying Attention
Maduro used Tether to move 80% of Venezuela's oil revenue. Billions in sanctions evasion, settled on Tron since 2020.
Then the US made a phone call.
Tether froze the wallets.
Game over.
Everyone's focused on the arrest. The real story is the lesson every finance minister on earth just learned in real time: Stable coins are a leash, not an escape.
If someone can freeze it, it isn't money. It doesn't solve sovereignty.
First principles: USDT is dollar plumbing without SWIFT. Faster. Cheaper. Still has a CEO. Still has a compliance department. Still picks up when Washington calls.
This is why USDT adoption exploded, 71-year-old grandmothers in Caracas pay their HOA fees in tether now. But useful ≠ sovereign.
The entire value proposition for sanctions evasion just got publicly falsified.
Now do the game theory: You're Iran. Russia. Any country hedging against dollar weaponization. You just watched Venezuela's "crypto solution" get shut off like a light switch.
Where do you put reserves now? USDT? Compromised. Yuan? Political strings. Gold? Try settling $500M across borders in 10 minutes. CBDCs? Same kill switch, government branding.
There's exactly one asset that clears final settlement without asking permission from anyone.
21 million units. No CEO. No freeze function. No phone number.
This is the ad Bitcoin never had to buy. The most desperate, highest-stakes capital on earth just learned there's only one door.