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Table of Contents
Market Musing-g
Powell Criminal Investigation Sparks Fed Uncertainty, Bitcoin Holds Firm
Jerome Powell
POWELL
2026
2026
Bitcoin
BTC
Gold
GOLD
Reserve
RSRV
CoinRank_io
By CoinRank_io
39 minutes ago
•
8 mins read
Powell Criminal Investigation Sparks Fed Uncertainty, Bitcoin Holds Firm
Table of Contents
BACKGROUND OF THE POWELL CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION AND FEDERAL RESERVE INDEPENDENCE
POLITICAL PRESSURE, TRUMP, AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE LEADERSHIP TRANSITION
FEDERAL RESERVE RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS AND POLICY UNCERTAINTY IN 2026
BITCOIN PRICE REACTION AND DECOUPLING FROM TRADITIONAL RISK ASSETS
BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND DERIVATIVES MARKET SIGNALS
CRYPTO MARKET SENTIMENT, FED POLITICIZATION, AND BITCOIN NARRATIVES
CONCLUSION: POWELL INVESTIGATION, FED POLICY RISK, AND BITCOIN’S STRATEGIC ROLE
Powell’s criminal investigation has increased Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, reinforcing concerns over politicization and weakening confidence in traditional monetary governance structures.
Rate-cut expectations for 2026 have dropped sharply to 51 basis points, yet Bitcoin has shown resilience as equities declined.
Bitcoin’s stable price action amid macro turmoil strengthens its narrative as a hedge against fiat policy risk and institutional instability.
Powell’s criminal investigation reshapes Federal Reserve policy risk as rate-cut expectations fall. Bitcoin shows signs of decoupling as a hedge against political uncertainty.

On January 9, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, an action Powell described as politically motivated pressure. As rate-cut expectations cooled sharply—markets now pricing only 51 basis points of easing in 2026—Bitcoin showed early signs of decoupling from traditional risk assets. While U.S. equity futures declined 0.4–0.7%, Bitcoin remained stable and even gained 0.7%. Many analysts argue that growing concerns over Federal Reserve politicization are strengthening Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation and fiat policy risk.

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BACKGROUND OF THE POWELL CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION AND FEDERAL RESERVE INDEPENDENCE

The criminal investigation into Jerome Powell represents one of the most extraordinary developments in modern U.S. monetary history. According to the disclosed timeline, the probe was approved in November 2025 by U.S. prosecutor Jeanine Pirro, with a grand jury subpoena formally issued to the Federal Reserve on January 9, 2026. Two days later, on January 11, Powell released a video statement via the Federal Reserve’s official website, characterizing the investigation as an unprecedented attempt to exert political pressure on monetary policy rather than a legitimate inquiry into misconduct.

The investigation centers on Powell’s June 2025 congressional testimony regarding a $2.5 billion Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project. The project, initiated in 2022 and scheduled for completion in 2027, has exceeded its original budget by approximately $700 million. The Department of Justice stated that its priority is examining potential misuse of taxpayer funds and the accuracy of Powell’s testimony before Congress. Powell has strongly rejected this framing, arguing that the renovation issue is being leveraged as a political instrument to undermine Federal Reserve independence.

POLITICAL PRESSURE, TRUMP, AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE LEADERSHIP TRANSITION

The Powell investigation cannot be separated from the broader political context surrounding U.S. monetary policy. Tensions between Powell and Donald Trump have persisted for years, particularly over disagreements regarding the timing and scale of interest rate cuts. Powell’s term as Federal Reserve Chair is set to expire in May 2026, and Trump has indicated plans to announce a successor in the near future.

Compounding uncertainty, Senator Thom Tillis has publicly opposed confirming any new Federal Reserve nominee until the investigation is resolved, raising concerns about judicial overreach and the erosion of institutional independence. As a result, investors are increasingly forced to account not only for macroeconomic data, but also for the growing risk that monetary policy decisions may be shaped by political dynamics rather than economic fundamentals.
@powel_chrasher

Istoria arată că anii de scădere rari ai Bitcoinului au fost urmați de rebounduri de peste 100%, păstrând astfel 2026 pe lista de urmărire a tranzactorilor.
Bitcoin
BTC
$90.965
a încheiat anul 2025 ușor în negativ, cu un randament de -6,36%, după un început puternic în prima parte a anului. Deși pierderea anuală pare modestă, modelele istorice sugerează că anii cu scăderi au fost adesea urmați de unele dintre cele mai puternice raliile Bitcoinului.

Rezultate cheie:

Bitcoin a avut în mod tradițional o creștere medie de aproape 100% în anul următor unui an cu scădere.

Modelele pe termen lung proiectează un obiectiv semnificativ aproape de 300.000 USD dacă condițiile de lichiditate devin favorabile.

Bitcoin 'not likely' to make new all-time high in 2026, says new research
Bitcoin long-term short signals from trading tools led analysis to conclude that no new BTC price all-time high would come this year.

BTC$91,261
faces a new “battle” for control before bulls trigger the next round of BTC price gains, but the long-term outlook is grim.
KEY POINTS:
Bitcoin short-term and long-term perspectives contrast as bears stay in control on high timeframes.A golden cross on the day chart does not cancel out short signals for the rest of the year.A new all-time high is “not likely” as a result.
$87,500 retest next stop for BTC price
In his latest X analysis on Wednesday, KEITH ALAN, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, forecast a retest of the 2026 yearly open.
Bitcoin price action is now caught in a tussle between buyers and sellers, but a return to $87,500 is “not a matter of if, but when,” Alan said.

“FireCharts shows a realtime battle unfolding in the $BTC order book,” he said.
“Bulls are trying to defend support at the 2026-01-05 Timescape Level, but Whales appear to be looking for a support test closer to the Yearly Open before a Golden Cross forms on the D chart to trigger the next rally.”

That cross involves the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The former crossing above the latter would indicate renewed strength on lower timeframes.
Before that, however, a support retest of the yearly open is on the wall.
“The battle for it is happening right now,” Alan said, adding:
“If it doesn't happen in the next 24 hours, I expect it will happen after the Death Cross forms on the Weekly chart, around the middle of the month.”

Bitcoin, Ether at “critical inflection points”
Zooming out, other findings had little inspiration for Bitcoin optimists on multimonth timeframes and further out.
Multiple “short” signals, trading tools showed, mean that BTC/USD is unlikely to make new all-time highs before 2027.
“A lot can happen in 6 months that could invalidate it, but at the moment, it’s easy to build a case for price to drop after this current pump loses momentum,” Alan wrote about the six-month chart.
The research held similar conclusions about largest altcoin Ether ETH$3,154, describing both coins as being “at critical inflection points.”
For a true turnaround, one-week relative strength index (RSI) values above 41/100, along with weekly closes above the 50-week SMA at $101,500, are needed.