SignalPlus

Metrici cheie: (12Ian 4pm HK -> 19Ian 4pm HK)
BTC/USD +1.1% ($91,700-> $92,700), ETH/USD +1.6% ($3,150 -> $3,200)

Juriul este încă în dezbatere cu privire la următoarea mișcare direcțională pentru BTC, cu o inițială pozitivitate asupra depășirii rezistenței de $94.5–95k la începutul săptămânii trecute, care nu a reușit să continue — atingând pe scurt următorul nivel cheie de rezistență la $98k înainte de a reveni rapid. Mișcarea înapoi sub pivotul de $94.5k la începutul dimineții de luni în Asia ne-a readus ferm în formarea wedge-ului care poate sugera un alt test de $92k, înainte de un suport mai material la $88–90k

Metrice cheie: (5Ian 16:00 HK -> 12Ian 16:00 HK)
BTC/USD -1,0% (92.600$-> 91.700$), ETH/USD -0,5% (3.165$ -> 3.150$)

Piața spot BTC continuă mișcarea laterală pe care a avut-o de la sfârșitul lui noiembrie, frustrând atât cumpărătorii, cât și vânzătorii din cauza volatilității realizate în scădere. Putem vizualiza acțiunea prețului într-un triunghi care se înclina ușor mai probabil spre o mișcare finală în jos (și inversiunea definitivă), dar având în vedere sprijinul decent observat în ultimele două luni, există o șansă bună că aceasta face parte dintr-o mișcare corectivă complexă în sus (în cele din urmă). Pentru moment, jura este încă în discuție, dar susținem opinia generală că scăderea de aici va fi limitată atât din punct de vedere al mărimii mișcării, cât și al volatilității, în timp ce partea superioară are mult mai mult potențial în ceea ce privește mișcarea finală, deși din nou nu așteptăm o acțiune bruscă a prețului sau o volatilitate ridicată aici. Sub 89.000$ sau peste 95.000$ sunt probabile să catalizeze o schimbare față de această perioadă de ținere/triunghi și susținem răbdarea în timp ce piața încearcă să rezolve următoarea sa mișcare

Ce timpuri interesante trăim.
În momentul în care piețele se închid aproape de maxime istorice (din nou), chiar în timp ce administrația americană este ocupată cu implementarea operațiunii schimbare de regim 2.0 în întreaga lume, ne-am trezit cu știri despre Banca Federală care primește un act de citare din partea Departamentului de Justiție, în timp ce independența Fedului continuă să fie pusă la îndoială:
"Amenințarea cu acuzații penale este o consecință a faptului că Banca Federală stabilește ratele dobânzilor pe baza celei mai bune evaluări privind ceea ce va servi publicul, mai degrabă decât a urma preferințele Președintelui." — Jerome Powell, 11 ianuarie 2026

Tensiunile geopolitice sau nu, piețele nu au pierdut timpul să revină la modul complet de acceptare a riscului, cu SPX la o distanță de tragere de la marcajul de 7000.
Deși multe au fost spuse despre situația din Venezuela și despre ce va fi următorul obiectiv în cadrul noii „Drepturi Donroe” (Islanda?), este clar că există în prezent un efort global de stocare a metalelor prețioase și a materiilor prime de bază, pregătind un scenariu bullish pe termen lung pentru materiile prime într-o lume în care comerțul liber și alianțele strategice se dezagregă.

Sentimentul de risc a făcut o întorsătură de 180 de grade vineri, pe măsură ce activele macro s-au vândut pe toată linia, conduse de o slăbiciune semnificativă în acțiunile tehnologiei, cu o îngustare a curbei randamentelor. Îngrijorările cu privire la câștigurile Oracle și Broadcom au tras complexul de risc general în jos, în timp ce realizările de profit și rotația sectorială de sfârșit de an au tras Nasdaq în jos cu -2% în timpul zilei, la un moment dat.

În plus, Curtea Supremă este pe cale să decidă cu privire la autoritatea tarifară a președintelui Trump încă din această săptămână, iar o hotărâre negativă ar însemna că guvernul SUA ar putea datora ~200b $ în rambursări importatorilor pe parcursul anului următor. Acest lucru ar trebui să fie finanțat din emiterea suplimentară de obligațiuni, având un impact semnificativ asupra bugetului guvernamental viitor, deoarece tarifele au fost desemnate ca o sursă majoră de venituri. Ca urmare, randamentele pe 10 ani au fost testate și par să depășească plafonul multi-lunar de ~4.20%, cu curba randamentelor 2/10 de asemenea îngustându-se cu ~15bp în ultimele 2 săptămâni.

While risk sentiment steadied last week, G7 fixed income had a rough go as a number of Tier-1, non-US economic indicators surprised to the upside. Australia CPI came in at 3.8% vs 3.6% expected, triggering a 15bp gap up in their 5yr yield and AUDUSD +2.5% higher on the month. Canada’s job report was up next with an extremely strong upside beat (unemployment at 6.5% vs 7.0% expected), which triggered the sharpest daily move in the Canadian 5yr bond since 2022 (+20bp), and the CAD soaring by 2%. Over in Japan, despite weak capex spending, the market is pricing in a 90% chance of a BOJ hike this month, making the dovish Fed the odd one out of the G7.

The market widely expects a 25bp in the FOMC this week, with an addition 2 more priced in for all of 2026. Despite stubborn inflation, the Fed has hinted that they will lean on the softness in the unemployment rate (~4.5%) to justify the final cut of the year. Furthermore, with 2 more jobs reports between the Dec and Jan FOMC, we expect Chairman Powell to keep his options open for another rate cut in January or March, with the 2026 ‘dot plot’ similar to before.

Unsurprisingly, the Fed dovishness is starting to meet some market resistance, with market participants starting to price in the chance of a ‘hawkish cut’ through Powell’s Q&A guidance or a change in SEP forecasts. In order to make that happen, the Fed would need to be rather explicit in his forward guidance, such as by shifting the 2026 rate cuts expectations to 1 or less, which we think has a low probability of happening.
On the other hand, with President Trump strongly hinting at Kevin Hasset being the next chair, that’s likely going to be the market’s modal outcome, which implies a more ‘easier’ Fed Chair taking the helm starting next June. As such, the medium views of 1) weaker USD, 2) higher inflation, 3) Treasury curve steepeners and 4) higher asset prices are likely to stay without a meaningful change in realized macro conditions.

All that hasn’t meant a lot of crypto, which saw BTC prices rebound to the 86–92k price range after a quiet week of trading. Unfortunately, underlying sentiment appears to have turned for the worst as Blackrock’s IBIT has suffered its longest streak of weekly outflows since inception, with nearly $2.9bln of cumulative outflows over the past 6 consecutive weeks.

The structural mood change can be seen from BTC’s recent correlation (or lack off), as it has dramatically underperformed the rest of the high-beta, risk-on complex over the past 8 weeks. The asset decoupling is happening at a time when the investor mindshare has fully pivoted to AI and related stocks, with global retail traders flocking back to day trading stocks (and prediction) markets, while gold and silver are still within a stone’s throw from ATHs.

From a production perspective, BTC continues to cover below most measure of product costs. Hash rate has fallen precipiously given China’s recent regulatory turn against crypto activities, as well as miners having shifted its compute resources towards AI and downsizing on their pure mining activities. A protracted stay underneath the product cost shall put additional pressures on miners which could lead to a further retreat in the hash rate and mining difficulty, leading to a more negatively reflexive loop of lower BTC prices in the medium term.

To make matters trickier, the collapse in global DATs has brought a lot of negative attention to supply overhang and possible forced selling should these listed equity prices trade significantly beneath their BTC treasury values. MSTR has been under the most pressure, with the company’s combined debt + equity values now barely trading at a premium to its BTC holdings. When pressed against the uncomfortable question of what happens if the ratio was to dip below 1, Saylor worrisomely said:
“When our equity is trading above the net asset value of the bitcoin, we just sell the equity it creates shareholder value and when the equity is trading below the (net asset) value of the bitcoin, we would either sell bitcoin derivatives or we would just sell the bitcoin.” — Michael Saylor at Binance Blockchain Week, December 3rd
Let’s hope that MSTR’s $1.4bln reserve fund will be able to keep them from force liquidating its BTC reserves in the foreseeable future.

Looking ahead, pretty much the same playbook as before — equities are likely to hold up heading into year-end, with fixed income underlying a near-term adjustment as yields trend higher with global central banks turning more neutral/hawkish outside of the Fed. We fear that crypto remains in a near-term bear market until proven otherwise, and is reflected in the vol market where traders continue to pay-up for protection against lower prices. It would likely take a very dovish cut (or a surprise SPX index inclusion decision) to reverse the near-term trend, so we expect more of the same grind lower in interest and sentiment heading into the new year.
Good luck & good trading.

Key metrics: (17Nov 4pm HK -> 1Dec 4pm HK)
BTC/USD -9.6% ($95,600-> $86,400), ETH/USD -11.9% ($3,200 -> $2,820)After a plunge down towards key support at $80k two Fridays ago, last week was categorised as a corrective climb back from the lows as the market in thin Thanksgiving liquidity attempted to regain a solid footing ahead of an anticipated “Santa” rally. This week began with a reality check: the overhang of longs still out there, and the pivot level of $89k triggered some heavy selling over the Asian session. While we do expect the market to engineer a ‘Santa rally’ later in the month (especially in light of Fed expected to cut rates), we initially (continue) to expect that the most likely path forward is a re-testing of the lows from here, but that low will be a longer term buying opportunity. Participants that didn’t sell the bounce-back last week might be panicking a little, especially if we don’t see a quick recovery/climb back towards the resistance lvls ($88.5–90k) and that would catalyse the move lowerThere are a few alternative “counts” and possible price paths out there — more so than usual owing to the complications of the Oct flash crash — so there is a non-trivial probability that this is simply a correction of an overshoot higher on thin liqudiity and that the longer term move higher is already in play. A final alternative is this is still part of the corrective move before the last leg lower (this will be evident if we reclaim > $90k but fail at $100k) but odds are on more downside price action from here this week. We suggest scaling into longer term longs from here ($85.5–86.5k lvl) and again closer to $80–81k and for the daring, more $78–80k (big secular support comes in below that). Key pivots to the top side include > $89k and through $94.25k, with $100k the key pivot to open us back up to $125–130k region (our target for wave B, which comes after this move is done)
Market Themes
Volatile couple of weeks across markets as the FOMC pricing pendulum swung from 90% odd of a December cut down to 30% and back up to 90%. High-beta tech/AI names and crypto suffered the most, while VIX briefly re-visited the local highs of 25–26 that we have seen on a few occasions this year (excluding the March-April tariff highs >40), though once again this level capped pricing as the fundamental macro backdrop remains broadly risk supportive in the absence of any material change to the Fed’s rate path. The market’s capacity to sustain risk-off for an extended period of time remains limited as positioning lightened up into Thanksgiving and we saw a broad relief in risk assetsAfter leading the move down in the high-beta risk complex, crypto was not spared from an extension of the move lower, with BTC cracking key support at $85k and triggering a fast move down to test strong support at $80k two Fridays ago. From there we have seen a corrective bounce in thin liquidity and selling exhaustion set in and broad risk sentiment bounced, with the market attempting to call the bottom. Unfortunately it seems that sentiment/market structure has been fundamentally weakened following the events of 10th-11th October and so this cycle ‘might be different’ in the sense that buying appetite and fresh liquidity may not be plentiful enough to drive a material surge back through $100k. IBIT outflows have picked up but nothing near the extent of the months of continuous inflows we saw since the summer and the trend of flows there will be key to monitor going forward. Interestingly alt coins have held up relatively better which is very unusual for ‘bear markets’ in crypto, which is suggestive of much deeper de-leveraging (again related to the effects of 10th-11th October) and with alt coin positioning broadly much cleaner (outside of the DAT holdings, though Tom Lee shows no signs of slowing purchases of ETH… yet!)
BTC$ ATM implied vols

Implied vols exhibited a big range in the past 2 weeks as <2m contracts exploded higher as spot tested down to $80k before having a sharp sell-off last week as spot exhibited a low realised corrective grind higher, before picking up again with the fresh sell-off from $90.5–85.5k in Asia. Realised performance has actually remained healthy in the high 40s/low 50s, so the sell-off in implied vols can only be attributed to position reduction into year end, with dealers looking to recycle any selling flows from unwinds of directional plays.The term structure of implied vols has flattened up broadly as some supply of back-end vols has left >3m expiries a little heavy, while front-dated contracts remain supported due to elevated realised
BTC$ Skew/Convexity

Skew prices have broadly been tracking the directionality of spot, and the realised spot-vol correlational (both realised and implied vol) has been incredibly strong. From a supply-demand dynamic the market has started to see overlay supply of calls again even at these spot levels and this should continue to keep skew prices bid deeply for putsConvexity prices have been broadly sideways as spot finds a footing in the broad $80-94k range. Directional plays either side of this range have been in call-spread or put-spread format supplying more wings to the market, with limited expectation of a material break of this range anytime soon. Also with local gamma realising healthily this has also created more appetite for local strikes over wings
Good luck for the week ahead!

Ei bine, asta a fost rapid. După un puternic rally de risc, pentru a închide săptămâna, prețurile criptomonedelor au scăzut drastic pentru a începe decembrie, cu BTC alunecând sub 87k $ într-o altă rundă de stop-loss generată în timpul sesiunii matinale subțiri din Asia.

Deși este greu să dăm vina pe un anumit declanșator, apetitul general pentru risc rămâne slab după spălarea din octombrie-noiembrie și a fost agravat de o serie de titluri negative care au apărut în ultimele sesiuni. Cu un alt hack DeFi pe un protocol OG (staking Yearn), un terminal DEX abandonând lansarea sa mult așteptată din cauza condițiilor dificile de piață (Terminal Finance), OG Arthur Hayes 'FUD' fiind deschis cu privire la recentul ICO Monad (99% dezavantaj), o retrogradare a ratingurilor S&P pentru USDT la 'slab' (dezvăluiri slabe) și PBoC reiterând poziția sa precaută cu privire la comerțul cu criptomonede și stablecoins, probabil că e corect să spunem că rămânem ferm în teritoriul pieței urșilor până la noi ordine.

Crypto a arătat semne timide de stabilizare în urma vânzării dramatice din săptămâna trecută. Prețurile au sărit de la nivelul scăzut de 80k pentru a tranzacționa aproape de 88k la începutul zilei de luni, pe măsură ce piața se îndreaptă spre săptămâna de vacanță de Ziua Recunoștinței cu un optimism prudent, deoarece președintele Fed, Williams, a revitalizat așteptările pentru o reducere a ratei în decembrie. O rally puternică a acțiunilor (SPX +1.5%, Nasdaq +2.7%) înainte de fluxurile de reechilibrare de la începutul lunii a ajutat, de asemenea, la întărirea sentimentului de risc.

Sentimentul de risc s-a îmbunătățit pe scară largă, cu un interes deschis în opțiunile BTC care devine ușor pozitiv, cu un raport put-call de ~0.67 pentru expirarea EoM. Se observă strikuri mari de put în jur de 80k, deoarece skew-urile put rămân agresiv cumpărate, cu opțiuni call pe partea de sus fiind puternic disponibile pentru vânzare. Piețele se simt cu siguranță mai bine acoperite împotriva unor posibile scăderi suplimentare în acest moment, permițând piețelor să se bucure de un rebound de recuperare împotriva nivelului de suport de 82k.

Key metrics: (10Nov 4pm HK -> 17Nov 4pm HK)
BTC/USD -10.0% ($106,200-> $95,600), ETH/USD -11.6% ($3,620 -> $3,200)

The rally on the US government reopening news was short lived and the market turned, retesting and breaking the $98–100k support zone. This resulted in a move down to test the support at $93–94k which so far has managed to absorb supply and hold. At this point the breakdown from $112.5–115k post the October flash crash looks to be mostly played out and while it is hard to call the exact lows, we consider dips below here to provide good buying opportunities. More broadly the ABC move from $123k → $107k → $126k → current/$93k looks almost completely played out, however we could see market re-testing the $93–94k, looking for a print down towards $90k, given the growing bearish sentimentPositioning seems lighter out there and CTAs are likely short here, so we think the risk-reward of further downside in spot is shifting here. Below $93k, expect strong support at $89–90.5k. Should that break, there’s isn’t much strong support until we reach $79k (some limited support $83–85k) since <$90k area was a very choppy “pivot” level back in March/April this year. On the top side resistance comes in around $98–101k initially and then again at $104–107k. We think that in general realised volatility will remain elevated whether spot is going up or down, though market will likely try to sell down implied vols initially on the relief in spot (especially if we get back above $107k)
Market Themes
Extension of risk-off sentiment particularly in US Tech/AI names this week, as the end of the government shutdown proved to be a ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’ event for markets, with the initial relief rally in risk last week fading very quickly. Concerns around AI valuations and spending/investment arose once more while Fedspeak was broadly on the more hawkish side as the market continued to walk back pricing of the December rate cut, from over 90% priced a month ago to a coin-toss 50%/50% as per current pricing. Interestingly though, the pick-up in VIX was fairly muted compared to e.g October, as US equities indexes broadly held in fairly well, with most of the pain felt in AI names specificallyCrypto was not spared from the sell-off in risk assets as BTC plunged back below $100k and took out key support at $98k, trading down to a low of $92.9k over the weekend before finding some temporary equilibrium closer to $95k. ETH also traded down to test $3k again though found some good support again ahead of that level, gravitating back towards the $3.2k that seems to have been a more stable equilibrium for it in the past few sessions. Overall after this latest sell-off, the risk-reward dynamics for accumulating crypto at these levels seems relatively more attractive and we would expect to see a bit more 2-way in the absence of a more protracted sell-off in broader risk assets (or a more material spike in VIX). However native sentiment seems noticeably poor so it will be the resolve of IBIT holders/buyers that will be tested most closely in the coming sessions
BTC$ ATM implied vols

Implied vols rallied in line with the recent spot-vol correlation of higher volatility on lower spot, as we plunged back below $100k and took out key support of $98k. Realised volatility continued to remain high both on a high frequency basis but also on a fix-to-fix, with an 90+ vol observation between Thursday and Friday expiry on fix-to-fix. This extended period of high realised volatility is causing some stress in the market and driving a natural reflation of volatility further out the curve, as the market begins to price a higher structural vol base for the asset after an abnormally low period of realised vol over the recent summer monthsThe term structure of implied vols has flattened up driven by higher front-ends as gamma performance remains elevated. The curve moves have been relatively weighted in fashion (i.e. back end vols have still repriced higher but just by a lower beta vs front-end) as the market continues to feel relatively short vol overall. There has been decent demand observed for January/March/June strangles in the past week as the market looks to cover some legacy short vol positions that were put on when the term structure was much steeper
BTC$ Skew/Convexity

Skew prices broadly moved deeper for puts on the break of $100k and remains fairly bid for puts in gamma tenors as the downside remains the more vulnerable side of the distribution for now. However the market is cognisant of more 2-way risks from this level of spot, particularly on a slightly longer term basis, and this is keeping skew prices fairly stable in tenors further out, as we have begun to see some demand for topside for year-end and out at this lower spot entry levelConvexity prices moved lower as local gamma performed admirably in the past few sessions, while the market is starting to discount the extreme wing observations here as positioning seems to be cleaner and many feel we are coming to the last leg of the sell-off. Directional demand for an extension lower has been seen the in the form of put spreads (e.g. year-end 90k/70k put spreads) while topside plays also seem to be in call-spread format (e.g $110k/125k call spreads) — again adding further supply of convexity to the market. Overall at these levels and given the high vol-of-vol that we have witnessed we think flies are approaching value zone
Good luck for the week ahead!

Crypto prices faltered again the past week with BTC touching $94k on the back of a thin Monday selloff, with the majors selling off another 10–20% on a week-on-week basis, and native sentiment as pessimistic as it’s ever been, including the prior bear markets. While macro headwinds could be excused for driving part of the sell-off, crypto has legitimately underperformed most other asset classes, including levered tech stocks, which they have been most tightly correlated with.

Furthermore, post the October meltdown, persistent rumors of significant market maker losses have led to a significant drop in order book liquidity, exacerbating market moves and particularly to the downside.

Unsurprisingly, we’ve seen rapid deleveraging and real money outflows across the entire crypto complex. Significant CEX futures liquidations are followed by YTD highs in ETF outflows and DAT sales, with Blackrock’s IBIT seeing a single day record of -$463M in sales and DATs also seeing the first weekly outflows since inception.

The persistent sales have led to a collapse in DAT premium to negative territory, sparking concerns of treasury sales as companies dispose of assets to support the falling equity market cap. MSTR is obviously the elephant in the room, though Saylor was quick to publicly deny any sale shennigans, but the final verdict might be yet to be seen.

After a long period of doldrum, both realized and implied volatility have perked up as prices crashed through bull cycle ranges. In particular, put skews remain bid especially for ETH, where real money support less supportive than BTC, opening concerns for sharper downsides.

Amidst all the doom and gloom, have there been any good news out of the space as of late? Outside of the recent Square announcement that they have recently started to accept Bitcoin payments for their merchants, the latest 13F filings have also shown that the Harvard Endowment ($57B AUM) now has a $443M position in IBIT, their largest single equity holding in the portfolio. But before everyone gets too excited, it is unclear that if the position is an outright long or as a spread/arbitrage trade vs DATs or other crypto proxy. We lean towards the latter, but it’s still good to see that TradFi real money accounts are at least becoming more active participants in this space, even if it’s not just a pure long exposure.

Back on macro, US stocks shook off a shaky start despite a -3.8% sell off in the KOSPI and an early -2% swoon in the Nasdaq to close positive on the session while holding its 55d moving average support. Fixed income has also been under stress with Japan, Korea, and UK bonds all under pressure due to brewing fiscal / political concerns, with US treasuries facing similar headwinds as yields have reversed higher.

Over in the US, December rate cut odds have fallen towards 40% as Fed officials have been coming out in force to manage down easing spectations, with the US economy still largely holding in despite some concerns over the labour market. The biggest worry remains with inflation, where President Trump has recently suffered a significant setback in polls given high inflation and rising cost of living concerns, with former Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair Yellen declaring that the US is “in danger of becoming a banana republic”.
Fed Officials have Been Explicit in Managing Down Easing Expectations, with Former Chair Yellen Proclaiming the US Being in Danger of Being a “Banana Republic”
“It’s not obvious that monetary policy should be doing more right now,” — Cleveland Fed President Hammack
“As I look to the December meeting, I think it would be hard to support another rate cut unless we were to get convincing evidence that inflation is really coming down faster than my expectations or that we were seeing more than the gradual cooling that we’ve been seeing in the labor market.” — Dallas Fed President Logan
“I do not think further cuts in interest rates will do much to patch over any cracks in the labor market — stresses that more likely than not arise from structural changes in technology and immigration policy,” — Kanas City Fed President Schmid

Looking ahead, we’ll be keeping an eye out on a few things.
1.Deluge of Make-Up Data Releases Following Government Reopening
We expect rate cut expectations to be volatile over the next couple of weeks analysts begin to sift through a backlogged economic dataset

2. A Return of Macro Factors to Drive Near Term Asset Moves as Asset Vol have Picked Up
Cross-asset volatility has picked up as investors are focusing back economic growth with early stages of a labour slowdown against stubborn inflation

3. US Equities Remain Rangebound for Now, But Could See an Acceleration on a Sustained Break >7000 or <6500 on the SPX as the Gamma Profile Flips Negative

4. We Remain Cautiously Optimistic on US Equities on (Still) Rising Earnings Growth and Strong Retail Demand
While valuations are expensive, US corporate earnings growth remain at some of the highest levels in recent years

The retail bid in US equities has shown no signs of subsiding, and should be respected until the trend changes

5. Technical Picture on Crypto is Less Supportive, But Could Offer Decent Long-Term Entry Points
We continue to expect the fallout from the October collapse to drag-on as more victims surface, and more protocols to shut as more native participants exit on further dillusionmentDAT sales are a real risk and present a significant overhang on sentiment until further notice.Further sell-offs would present long-term attractive entry points given the continued and accelerating adoption of BTC in the US financial system.

Key metrics: (3Nov 4pm HK -> 10Nov 4pm HK)
BTC/USD -1.0% ($107,200-> $106,200), ETH/USD -1.9% ($3,690 -> $3,620)

After finally breaching the psychological level of $100k last week, positive news out of Washington over the weekend drove a relief rally to start the week and the market traded up to test the previous support (now resistance) level/region of $104–107k. Through $107–108k we expect the market to see some top side acceleration given the pivotal/choppy zone of $108–114kA break higher would suggest this part of the correction might be completed and the market could be gearing up for a fast and choppy test of the ATHs. We ultimately think that this would give way to a larger and more sustained correction since we see the larger-cycle as corrective (albeit flat corrective) for the coming monthsIf we fail to break $107k that would suggest the market wants to retest the $100k support and we have a more “pure” break down target closer to $95k, but given lows have printed on a $98k handle already we have been within a whisker of that level already. We would think that re-tests at or below $100k from here are opportunities to buy delta into, carefully and calmly in a fashion that gives plenty of room in case the downside runs on stops / liquidations before the bigger turn comes in
Market Themes
Wobbly week for risk assets as the US government shutdown extended, with fears of the extended impact on the US economy. On top of this, despite a fairly solid round of US corporate earnings, concerns began to arise around the stretched levels of AI valuations, particularly given the heavy spend and investment being made by some of these companies to continue the development and integration of AI e.g. Meta … what if at the end of all this spending the technology doesn’t produce the revenues priced in? Ultimately so far the investments have been paying dividends, so partly this aspect of the price action felt like narrative chasing on what was probably just a healthy correction given the extended rallies some of these names have had so far this yearCrypto has been underperforming risky assets (and Gold) all year and found itself in a vulnerable position with the broader turn in risk assets. BTC finally plunged through $100k, though selling flows were well absorbed in the $98–100k range, while ETH tested down towards $3k before also finding some support. The end of the Government shutdown and the likelihood of another Fed cut in December (especially given the impact on US economy from the recent shutdown) should ultimately support risk assets from here into year end and this may bring a relief rally, but after a challenging year and high opportunity cost in the space, it still feels like a ‘high risk low reward’ asset in the absence of any crypto-specific catalyst, and therefore may find itself vulnerable should an unexpected turn in risk assets occur once more before year end
BTC$ ATM implied vols

Implied vols broadly traded sideways this week as realised volatility remained in the low-mid 40s (on a high frequency basis), justifying this newer implied vol base that we have reset to. Implied vols initially dipped early in the week before finding some support as spot broke $100k. However with no follow through below that key level, implies drifted lower into the weekend before finding support again into the new week as spot had a quick rally off the lowsThe term structure of implied vols has begun to steepen out as the short-term realised begins to wane with spot establishing itself in a range and no immediate catalysts to trigger a change. Directional players (looking at topside) have shifted positioning to December onwards expiries to allow more time for the market to digest the recent price action
BTC$ Skew/Convexity

Skew prices broadly moved deeper for puts on the break of $100k but having found decent support there and then exhibiting a quick relief rally on the US govt shutdown lifting over the weekend, skew prices began to move less deep for puts as tactical call buyers emerged. Structurally the spot-vol correlation remains clear (higher implied/realised vol on lower spot) as BTC becomes more correlated with traditional equity/risky assets in this behaviourConvexity prices moved lower as spot retraced into the broad $104–112k range, after a brief visit below $100k. Vol of vol remains high but ultimately the market seems to be finding equilibrium at this newer price range for now having tested and found strong support at $98–100k, any material break of $98–117k broad range will trigger some repricing of risk reversals structurally and bring convexity back into play
Good luck for the week ahead!

Activele macro au avut o săptămână dificilă săptămâna trecută, cu Nasdaq suferind cea mai mare pierdere săptămânală de la Ziua Eliberării din aprilie, tras în jos de îngrijorările legate de o bulă AI în descompunere și date economice dezamăgitoare.

Deși este o publicare de date de ‘nivel 2’, raportul despre concedierile Challenger de săptămâna trecută a șocat participanții de pe piață cu cea mai mare creștere lunară din octombrie din 2003 (+153k, 99k creștere MoM), concedierile fiind în mare parte determinate de sectorul privat. Detaliile au arătat că peste 30% din reduceri au fost în depozitare, urmate de 22% în tehnologie. Deși datele pot fi zgomotoase și nu sunt (încă) corelate cu mai multe cifre oficiale ale salariilor din cauza închiderii guvernului, mediile netezite arată o corelație trecătoare cu cererile, piețele fiind probabil să înceapă să acorde o atenție mai mare datelor despre muncă în săptămânile următoare, având în vedere încetinirea aparentă.

Cu guvernul american încă în lockdown, principalul eveniment de săptămâna trecută a fost cu FOMC, unde au dezamăgit porumbeii de pe piață, deoarece Powell a respins tăierea complet prețuită din decembrie ca fiind „departe de” o „concluzie inevitabilă”. În ciuda tăierii de 25 de puncte de bază, Powell a indicat că există „opinii foarte diferite” în cadrul comitetului, aproximativ jumătate din comitet susținând tăierea cumulativă de 75 de puncte de bază în T4, iar cealaltă jumătate dissentind. În plus, închiderea guvernului a făcut prognoza economică și mai dificilă decât de obicei, iar Fed a mers atât de departe încât a sugerat că ar putea fi „cautious” așteptând întâlnirea din decembrie pentru a vedea dacă o tăiere suplimentară este justificată.

Metrici cheie: (27Oct 4pm HK -> 3Nov 4pm HK)
BTC/USD -7.3% ($115,600-> $107,200), ETH/USD -12.1% ($4,200 -> $3,690)
Piața continuă să fluctueze în intervalul $104/105-$115/116k aici, cu volatilitate realizată rămânând ridicată chiar și pe măsură ce intervalele absolute se comprimă — aceasta sugerează că piața se luptă să găsească un echilibru aici, derutată de deconectarea dintre Crypto vs Tech/acțiuni cu beta ridicat și îngrijorată de posibilitatea ca Aurul/prețios să aibă o corecție mai semnificativă în jos de aici. Tehnic, ne așteptăm la o altă mișcare în jos de aici pentru a finaliza această mișcare corectivă plată (prima dintr-o potențială corecție plată cu 3 părți pe termen lung (an?) ), dar am putea vedea intervalul fluctuant înainte și înapoi pentru câteva sesiuni / săptămâni de aici înainte

Indicatori cheie: (6Oct 4pm HK -> 27Oct 4pm HK)
BTC/USD -6.4% ($123,450-> $115,600), ETH/USD -7.5% ($4,540 -> $4,200)
Piața ne-a oferit un vârf B destul de clar și evident în jurul valorii de $126k, iar de atunci a petrecut cea mai mare parte a ultimelor 2 săptămâni testând suporturile de la $109–104k, deși acum s-a întors pentru a testa rezistența la nivelul de $114.5–117.5k. Părerea noastră este că aceasta este probabil unda 2 din 5 a unei progresii mai mari în jos, sub $95k, dar, având în vedere dificultățile de a lua în calcul prăbușirea din 11Oct, există un risc să fi trecut într-o corecție mai extinsă care ar putea re-testa din nou vârfurile undei B (înainte de a corecta în jos). Suportul coboară la $109k aici și apoi din nou la $107k și $105–104.5k, în timp ce pe partea superioară, rezistența cheie inițială la $117.5k înainte de $121–125k, rezistență mai puternică

US equities blew out to another record high on Monday, led by the Nasdaq with a +1.6% gain and SPX rallying by 1%. Optimism over another supposedly China-US trade deal, bullish positioning into Mag-7 earnings, and expectations of another dovish Fed meeting propelled risk sentiment higher.
Cross-asset vols have also collapsed back close to record lows as investors piled back into risk-on positions, while global equities might also be making significant upside breaks with the Shanghai Composite appearing to break out of a 10yr downward trendline.

Markets are fully pricing in a 25bp cut in this month and December’s FOMC meeting, and traders are expecting more dovish language from the Fed Chair despite US macro basically in a govt data vacuum for nearly a month now. We expect Powell to suggest that policymaking is becoming trickier without timely economic data, hence justifying the Fed’s earlier base-case of another cut this month, and the prolonged government shut down to bring further downside risks to labour markets.
We don’t expect a lot of new policy guidance to be offered given the data blackout, and the focus to be on how quickly they will end QT (balance sheet reduction) as system reserves have returned to ‘ample’ levels. Market base-case would suggest QT to end in 1Q2026, with risks of a dovish surprise should Powell announce an earlier end to the balance sheet reduction.

BTC has rebounded back to the $115K area, albeit with noticeably weaker momentum than equities, with prices basically having treaded water both on a monthly and quarterly basis. BTC implied vol has resumed its downwards trajectory as prices have stabilized, though vol skews are starting to be more balanced with some buyers looking to add top-side given the sizeable amount of long liquidation in recent months.

We don’t see a lot of near-term catalysts for crypto prices here with DATs remaining on the back-foot, while ETF inflows have steadied after multi-quarter inflows. A resurgence in upcoming crypto-related IPOs before year-end might bring some FOMO energy back to the market, with price action likely to be sub-dued given the significant PNL damage suffered from the altcoin wipe out earlier this month.
In the meantime, position adoption momentum continues in stablecoins, with payment transaction volumes breaking de-correlating against spot trading volume, suggesting that there’s more capital being brought on-chain without purely going into speculative purposes.

Will a dovish Fed and teflon-stocks save us from an otherwise disappointing Uptober? Hope springs eternal…!

Macro a încheiat o săptămână tumultoasă pe o notă puternică, cu încă un ‘TACO’ din partea Președintelui, deoarece a admis public că tarifele ridicate pe China nu sunt “sustenabile” și că se va întâlni cu Președintele Xi în două săptămâni, așa cum a fost transmis de către Trezoreria Bessent și echipa sa.

În plus, încă un sfert de rezultate mai puternice decât se așteptau pentru câștigurile băncilor a ajutat la calmarea unor îngrijorări legate de creditul privat din cauza falimentului First Brands și a ștergerii datoriei de la creditorul auto subprime (Tricolor, $170M ștergere de datorie), chiar și în ciuda afirmației amenințătoare a lui Jamie Dimon că “Și probabil că nu ar trebui să spun asta, dar când vezi o gândac, probabil că sunt mai mulți. Și așa că ar trebui — toată lumea ar trebui să fie avertizată cu privire la aceasta.”, referitor la mai multe defaulturi de credit în viitor.

Worst liquidation day since FTX.. $19bln (or much more) in PNL wiped out from ADL (auto-deleveraging) algorithms across CEXs… altcoins touching zero as market-maker support evaporated… There’s probably no need for us to regurgitate on what was a brutal Friday close for crypto traders and macro investors alike.

The China-US trade truce came to a sudden end as President Trump unended the calm with an exasperated response to the Chinese renewed export controls, which is unprecedented in its complexity and comprehensiveness. A US/Japan long-holiday weekend provided unfortunate timing as markets flash crashed into the Friday close, leading to a -4% drop in the Nasdaq and an instant wipeout across many altcoins.

In response, the crypto community was quickly introduced to the ‘ADL’ mechanism, aka Auto Deleveraging or ‘maintenance margin’ in the TradFi world. While logical in theory, auto stop-losses do not work well in gap-down markets when liquidity becomes discontinuous and prices ‘gap down to zero’ in an order-book vacuum. Traders often forget that market makers disappear in one-way markets as price discovery evaporates, and the auto-develeveraging ends up ‘hitting the first’ bid regardless of how low it is, creating negative “reflexivity” (or convexity) as prices accelerate to the downside.

To make matters worse, a significant jump in data traffic overloaded exchange infrastructure, which further confounded the auto-liquidation mechanisms with delayed data feeds and congested orders. However, this problem wasn’t limited to just the major CEXs, but was also seen in leading DEXs such as Hyperliquid, which ‘led’ the liquidation leaderboard with over $10bln of capital wiped out on-chain on a 24-hour basis. Liquidity vacuums are agnostic to whether your capital is on-chain or not, unfortunately.

In the TradFi world, this is mitigated somewhat by the presence of circuit breakers, which would have shifted some of the pain buy asset holders onto the exchange operators, which would require a reserve / insurance fund similar to FDIC for banks. However, that would lead to less leverage available to CEX traders as costs of trading increases (which is one reason why crypto exchanges can offer more trading leverage than say, CME), and also goes against the ‘24/7’ continuous markets that crypto traders value highly.
As with all things though, all decisions come with a trade-off, but we imagine that this wipe-out will lead to a lot of renewed discussions on infrastructure investments if crypto were to continue to be institutionalized.

Looking ahead, markets have bounced a bit on Monday due to a lack of further escalation from both the US and China sides, and also due to long-weekend holidays in Japan and US markets. While the overriding view is that the recent escalation is a mere bargaining chip ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting (now in question), we believe that the longer term impact is for the macro decoupling theme to have massively accelerated. The enhanced rare metals ban is a non-trivial escalation, and highlights the declining effectiveness of any US tariff retaliation.
In the short-run, the consensus view is for both sides to dial down the temperature (as they have over the weekend), and asset prices to see a short-term repreieve. Nevertheless, we are concerned over any significant altcoin recoveries this time around, given the deep critical PNL damage, and BTC-focused rally YTD which has left many native investors behind.

With the US government still shut and US economic data in a semi-blackout phase, markets are expected to remain extremely choppy this week with views subject to change on a whim. With systematic and momentum funds still highly invested, we would keep an eye out on any sustained rise in IVs to drive derisking flows from that community. Of course, any sudden tweets or announcements from either administration could turn the situation 180 at any time, so it’s probably best to keep risk as light as possible over the next few days.
Stay safe everyone.

Metrici cheie: (22Sep 4pm HK -> 6Oct 4pm HK)
· BTC/USD +9.2% ($113,000 -> $123,450), ETH/USD +8.6% ($4,180-> $4,540)

O mișcare foarte rapidă și ascuțită înapoi pentru a testa și a realiza noi maxime în săptămâna trecută, după ce a scăzut la $108k la sfârșitul lunii/trimestrului din săptămâna anterioară. Tehnic, corecția (extinsă?) plată pe care am căutat-o pare să fi început să se desfășoare. Având în vedere că acțiunea prețului este în general consistentă cu nivelurile noastre pe termen lung, continuăm să credem că o corecție plată este cea mai probabilă dinamică aici și cu asta credem că un maxim ar putea fi realizat în jur de $129–130k; dincolo de asta va trebui să revizuim această mișcare pe măsură ce devine din ce în ce mai probabil să fie parte dintr-o mișcare progresivă. Ne așteptăm la un suport bun pe retrageri inițial la $120–118k, dar orice mișcare sub aceasta ar putea semnifica că ne îndreptăm spre corecția mai agresivă Wave C așteptată mai jos (sub $100k)