CoinRank

According to data tracked by crypto KOL, Musk @elonmusk owner of X, Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI—has repeatedly engaged with #Polymarket on the X, highlighting his growing visibility around #prediction markets.
#ElonMusk #CryptoMarket

According to The Block, Whale Alert data shows that on January 11, #Tether froze more than $182 million worth of #USDT across five wallet addresses on the #Tron blockchain in a single day. The affected wallets held balances ranging from approximately $12 million to $50 million, marking one of the largest single-day wallet freeze actions on Tron in recent months.
The move aligns with Tether’s voluntary wallet-freezing policy launched in December 2023, aimed at complying with the U.S. Treasury Department’s OFAC sanctions list.
#CryptoNews #CryptoTrading

India tightens #cryptocurrency regulations to combat money laundering and terrorist financing
#JPMorgan Chase no longer predicts a Fed rate cut in 2026
H100 Group plans to acquire Swiss Bitcoin treasury company Future Holdings AG
Polycule appears to have experienced a rug pull; user funds remain unwithdrawn
Vitalik: #Ethereum itself must pass the test of being "easy to walk away from".
#CoinRank

LISA a cunoscut un crash rapid de 76% în 24 de ore, cu trei utilizatori Alpha vândând activele lor, ceea ce a provocat o scădere rapidă a prețului

JPMorgan Chase nu mai previziunează o scădere a ratelor Fed în 2026

Un trader transformă 85 de dolari în 146.600 de dolari tranzactionând token-uri „I’m Here”

Coreea de Sud ridică interdicția de nouă ani privind investițiile corporative în criptomonede, permițând companiilor cotate să investească în criptomonede

Bine ați venit la Raportul Zilnic CoinRank. În această serie de coloane, CoinRank va oferi știri importante despre datele zilnice ale criptomonedelor, permițând cititorilor să înțeleagă rapid cele mai recente dezvoltări din piața criptomonedelor.

According to Beincrypto, South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (#FSC ) has officially eased regulations, allowing listed companies and professional investors to trade cryptocurrencies, ending a nine-year ban.
Eligible corporate entities may invest up to 5% of their net assets annually in cryptocurrencies ranked in the top 20 by market cap on Korea’s five major exchanges, potentially opening market access to around 3,500 institutions. Exchanges will be required to implement staggered execution and order size limits, while the eligibility of USD-backed stablecoins such as #USDT remains under discussion.
#CryptoNews #cryptocurrency

Perspectiva Goldman Sachs pentru 2026: creștere puternică a economiei americane și inflație moderată se potrivesc; Fed va reduce ratele de două ori în plus
Pump.fun lansează funcția de partajare a veniturilor din taxe pentru creatori
Indonezia a aprobat un exchange de criptomonede ICEx, sprijinit cu 70 de milioane de dolari, ca al doilea exchange oficial al țării
LISA scade cu 76% în 24 de ore; vânzarea de către trei utilizatori alpha provoacă o scădere rapidă a prețului
#Cryptocurrency -Vizualizări de conținut legate de #Cryptocurrency pe YouTube scad la cel mai scăzut nivel din ianuarie 2021
#CoinRank #GM

Summitul Conversational AI & Experience-ul Clientului (CACES) va organiza ediția sa globală a 10-a în Kuala Lumpur, consolidând poziția Malaeziei ca centru regional pentru inteligență artificială și transformare digitală.

 

Summitul de o zi, în prezență, va aduna lideri seniori în experiența clientului, practicieni AI și decidenți din întreprinderi pentru a discuta cazuri practice în domeniile IA conversațională, GenAI, adoptarea LLM, IA etică și experiența clientului impulsionată de IA.

 

Cunoscut pentru standardele sale editoriale ridicate și pentru rețeaua de profesioniști de top, CACES Asia 2026 vizează ajutarea organizațiilor să transforme strategia de IA în rezultate comerciale măsurabile în întreaga regiune Asia-Pacific.

Prediction markets are not inherently gambling tools. Their function depends on user intent. The same YES or NO contract can represent speculation, insurance style hedging, or risk free arbitrage.

 

Hedging is the most misunderstood but most powerful use case. When users already carry exposure such as airdrops, leveraged positions, or price risk, prediction markets allow that risk to be priced, transferred, and partially neutralized.

 

Arbitrage activity is essential to market quality. By exploiting temporary price inconsistencies across outcomes or platforms, arbitrageurs improve efficiency and turn prediction markets into reliable probability and pricing signals.

 

Are prediction markets just casinos?

 

At first glance, they do look like one. Users buy YES or NO on whether an event will happen. After the event resolves, positions are settled. If the outcome matches your position, you profit. If not, you lose. This structure feels very similar to traditional gambling.

 

However, this interpretation only captures one narrow use case.

 

The core idea of a prediction market is to turn the question “will an event happen” into a tradable market. What is really being traded is probability. Capital becomes a way to express beliefs, manage exposure, and transmit information through prices.

 

If someone enters a prediction market only to guess outcomes such as weather events or sports results, then the behavior is indeed close to gambling.

 

But prediction markets can support much broader financial behavior. In many situations, they resemble insurance markets or financial derivatives rather than casinos.

 

For some participants, prediction markets are entertainment.

 

For others, they are tools for managing risk or extracting price inefficiencies.

 

The difference is not the mechanism. It is the motivation for participation.

 

If you enter without existing exposure and simply want to guess an outcome, you are betting.

 

If you already face risk linked to an event, the prediction market becomes a place to trade that risk.

 

THREE DISTINCT WAYS TO USE PREDICTION MARKETS

 

Prediction markets support very different strategies depending on how users approach risk and profit.

 

BETTING

 

In betting mode, the user actively takes on outcome risk.

 

There is no prior exposure to the event. The user selects a direction based on belief or intuition. If the prediction is correct, the payoff depends on the entry price and implied probability. If incorrect, the position can lose its full value.

 

Returns can vary widely. They range from small gains to very large multiples, depending on how unlikely the outcome was at entry.

 

The logic is simple. You predict whether an event will happen.

 

This is the use case that most closely resembles gambling.

 

HEDGING

 

In hedging mode, the user already carries risk.

 

The goal is not to maximize upside. The goal is to reduce downside. This behavior is closer to buying insurance.

 

The user places a position on an outcome they do not want to happen. If that outcome occurs, the profit from the prediction market helps offset losses elsewhere.

 

The key idea is risk transfer. The user pays a premium to reduce uncertainty.

 

ARBITRAGE

 

In arbitrage mode, the user avoids outcome risk altogether.

 

Profit comes from price inconsistency rather than predicting results. Individual trades usually have very small margins. Profit depends on repetition and execution speed.

 

Arbitrage activity helps align prices across markets and improves overall efficiency.

 

The core logic is straightforward. When prices do not match, arbitrage closes the gap.

 

HEDGING AIRDROP VALUATION RISK WITH PREDICTION MARKETS

 

In crypto markets, airdrops are common and often uncertain.

 

Two questions appear almost every time.

 

What will the valuation be at launch, and was the participation effort worth it.

 

After receiving the tokens, should they be sold immediately, or is there upside or downside risk ahead.

 

 

Once you participate in an airdrop, you already hold price exposure. This is different from pure speculation. Prediction markets allow you to manage or transfer that exposure.

 

This behavior is closer to insurance than betting.

 

On platforms such as Polymarket, there are markets that predict a token’s fully diluted valuation one day after its token generation event.

 

Two points are important.

 

First, this is not the opening price. It is the valuation after one day of trading.

 

Second, fully diluted valuation is not the same as circulating market cap. It reflects total token supply.

 

For an airdrop participant, the logic is simple.

 

If the valuation is high, the token price is high, and the airdrop value is strong.

 

If the valuation is low, the token price is low, and the airdrop value is weak.

 

This market can be treated as a hedging tool.

 

One approach is to buy NO on a high valuation outcome. If the token launches strongly, the airdrop performs well while the hedge loses slightly. If the launch is weak, the airdrop underperforms but the hedge compensates.

 

 

Another approach is to buy YES on a low valuation outcome. The structure is the same, with different pricing and payout profiles.

 

The purpose is not to increase expected returns. It is to reduce variance.

 

The same logic applies after receiving the tokens.

 

If you sell immediately but worry about a price surge, you can hedge with positions that benefit from higher valuations.

 

If you hold and worry about a price drop, you can hedge with positions that benefit from lower valuations.

 

Prediction market positions can be exited before settlement, subject to liquidity. Position sizing matters. If the hedge exceeds the underlying exposure, the strategy turns back into speculation.

 

APPLYING THE SAME LOGIC TO BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM RISK

 

The same principles apply to major crypto assets.

 

If a trader holds a leveraged position, the most dangerous risk is not short term volatility. It is liquidation during extreme moves.

 

Prediction markets often offer contracts tied to future price ranges or maximum prices within a time window.

 

A trader with a short position can use a small prediction market position as protection against extreme upside moves.

 

The objective is not higher profit. It is survival.

 

This is risk management, not betting.

 

ARBITRAGE AND MARKET PRICE ALIGNMENT

 

Arbitrage is not exploiting errors. It is a natural mechanism that keeps markets coherent.

 

Arbitrage and hedging share one trait. Neither depends on guessing the final outcome.

 

They differ in purpose. Hedging manages exposure. Arbitrage manages mispricing.

 

Because markets are never perfectly aligned, opportunities appear briefly.

 

SINGLE OUTCOME ARBITRAGE

 

Each binary outcome has a YES and a NO. Only one settles to one. The other settles to zero.

 

In theory, buying both for a total cost below one guarantees profit.

 

In practice, order mechanics prevent placing such trades simultaneously. These opportunities only appear temporarily through timing and liquidity imbalance. They are extremely difficult to execute manually.

 

MULTI OUTCOME EVENT ARBITRAGE

 

Some events have multiple mutually exclusive outcomes. Only one can occur.

 

If the total cost of buying all YES options is below one, arbitrage exists.

 

This can happen when liquidity is thin or when large trades distort prices. Such opportunities are short lived and often require automation.

 

CROSS PLATFORM ARBITRAGE

 

The same event may appear on multiple platforms.

 

If definitions and deadlines match exactly, positions can be combined across platforms.

 

Care is critical. Even small differences in definitions or resolution rules invalidate the strategy.

 

Some events are not identical but logically connected. Mispricing across such events can also create opportunities.

 

A CLEAR FRAMEWORK FOR USING PREDICTION MARKETS

 

Betting means you had no prior exposure and chose to take risk.

 

Hedging means you already had exposure and want to manage it.

 

Arbitrage means you avoid exposure and exploit price mismatch.

 

THE LONG TERM ROLE OF PREDICTION MARKETS

 

Prediction markets are not casinos by default. They are tools for pricing risk.

 

A useful comparison is CME.

 

CME is a futures market, but it is also a major pricing center. Participants include banks, asset managers, insurers, and hedge funds. Many trades exist for hedging and balance sheet management rather than speculation.

 

Prediction markets differ in one key way. They trade probability directly. This makes interpretation more intuitive.

 

Could they become core onchain pricing infrastructure.

 

Possibly, but only under certain conditions.

 

Events must matter economically. Price ranges, macro decisions, protocol launches, and valuation metrics generate real hedging demand. Sports and celebrity gossip do not.

 

Liquidity must be deep. Without depth, prices carry little informational value.

 

As onchain finance integrates more macro and financial activity, prediction markets may evolve into essential infrastructure. If that happens, their role in hedging and arbitrage will expand, and their perception as casinos will continue to fade.

 

〈Prediction Markets Are Not Casinos: Three Ways to Use Them — Betting, Hedging, Arbitrage〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

Powell’s criminal investigation has increased Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, reinforcing concerns over politicization and weakening confidence in traditional monetary governance structures.

Rate-cut expectations for 2026 have dropped sharply to 51 basis points, yet Bitcoin has shown resilience as equities declined.

Bitcoin’s stable price action amid macro turmoil strengthens its narrative as a hedge against fiat policy risk and institutional instability.

Powell’s criminal investigation reshapes Federal Reserve policy risk as rate-cut expectations fall. Bitcoin shows signs of decoupling as a hedge against political uncertainty.

On January 9, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, an action Powell described as politically motivated pressure. As rate-cut expectations cooled sharply—markets now pricing only 51 basis points of easing in 2026—Bitcoin showed early signs of decoupling from traditional risk assets. While U.S. equity futures declined 0.4–0.7%, Bitcoin remained stable and even gained 0.7%. Many analysts argue that growing concerns over Federal Reserve politicization are strengthening Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation and fiat policy risk.

 

BACKGROUND OF THE POWELL CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION AND FEDERAL RESERVE INDEPENDENCE

 

The criminal investigation into Jerome Powell represents one of the most extraordinary developments in modern U.S. monetary history. According to the disclosed timeline, the probe was approved in November 2025 by U.S. prosecutor Jeanine Pirro, with a grand jury subpoena formally issued to the Federal Reserve on January 9, 2026. Two days later, on January 11, Powell released a video statement via the Federal Reserve’s official website, characterizing the investigation as an unprecedented attempt to exert political pressure on monetary policy rather than a legitimate inquiry into misconduct.

 

The investigation centers on Powell’s June 2025 congressional testimony regarding a $2.5 billion Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project. The project, initiated in 2022 and scheduled for completion in 2027, has exceeded its original budget by approximately $700 million. The Department of Justice stated that its priority is examining potential misuse of taxpayer funds and the accuracy of Powell’s testimony before Congress. Powell has strongly rejected this framing, arguing that the renovation issue is being leveraged as a political instrument to undermine Federal Reserve independence.

 

POLITICAL PRESSURE, TRUMP, AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE LEADERSHIP TRANSITION

 

The Powell investigation cannot be separated from the broader political context surrounding U.S. monetary policy. Tensions between Powell and Donald Trump have persisted for years, particularly over disagreements regarding the timing and scale of interest rate cuts. Powell’s term as Federal Reserve Chair is set to expire in May 2026, and Trump has indicated plans to announce a successor in the near future.

 

Compounding uncertainty, Senator Thom Tillis has publicly opposed confirming any new Federal Reserve nominee until the investigation is resolved, raising concerns about judicial overreach and the erosion of institutional independence. As a result, investors are increasingly forced to account not only for macroeconomic data, but also for the growing risk that monetary policy decisions may be shaped by political dynamics rather than economic fundamentals.

 

 

FEDERAL RESERVE RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS AND POLICY UNCERTAINTY IN 2026

 

Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 have shifted dramatically. As of January 12, 2026, CME FedWatch data shows a 95% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the January 28 FOMC meeting, with only a 5% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For March, the probability of no change stands at 71.3%, while the likelihood of a cut has declined to 27.6%, down sharply from over 50% one week earlier.

 

June 2026 is now widely viewed as the earliest plausible timing for the first rate cut, with markets assigning a 73% probability to a 25 basis point reduction. In total, expectations for 2026 have been revised down to just 51 basis points of easing, compared with earlier projections of 70–80 basis points before the release of stronger-than-expected December employment data on January 9.

 

Although the Powell investigation did not trigger an immediate repricing of rate-cut probabilities, it has materially increased perceived policy uncertainty. Powell has explicitly linked the probe to threats against Federal Reserve independence, and the uptick in the VIX on January 12 reflects a rising demand for protection against macro and institutional risk.

 

 

BITCOIN PRICE REACTION AND DECOUPLING FROM TRADITIONAL RISK ASSETS

 

Bitcoin’s price behavior during this period has attracted significant attention. From January 1 to January 6, Bitcoin rallied from $87,520 to a weekly high of $93,927, representing a 7.3% gain. Following Powell’s January 11 statement, Bitcoin retraced to $90,442, a 3.7% decline from the local high. However, as news of the investigation spread more broadly, Bitcoin stabilized and rose to $91,884 by 02:00 UTC on January 12, posting a 0.7% gain over 24 hours.

 

This resilience stood in stark contrast to traditional risk assets. During the same period, Dow Jones futures fell by 180–200 points, S&P 500 futures declined 0.5%, and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.7%. The divergence suggests that Bitcoin may be temporarily decoupling from equities, behaving less like a high-beta risk asset and more like a hedge against macroeconomic and institutional uncertainty.

 

 

BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND DERIVATIVES MARKET SIGNALS

 

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s indicators remain broadly constructive. As of January 12, the 14-day RSI stands at 56.65, indicating neutral momentum without signs of overheating. The MACD histogram reading of 227.26 confirms a bullish crossover, while price action remains above both the 12-day and 26-day exponential moving averages, reinforcing short-term trend support.

 

Key support levels are identified at $87,200, followed by $84,000 and a broader zone between $72,000 and $68,000. On the upside, resistance is clustered near $94,000, with additional barriers at $101,000, $104,000, and the $107,000–$110,000 range. The 200-day simple moving average at $106,174 remains a significant long-term resistance level.

 

Derivatives data provides additional insight. Total open interest reached $61.86 billion, up 0.91% over 24 hours, while funding rates across major exchanges remained positive, indicating that long positions are paying shorts. Over the same period, total liquidations amounted to $22.03 million, with short liquidations significantly exceeding long liquidations, signaling persistent upward pressure but also elevated leverage risk.

 

CRYPTO MARKET SENTIMENT, FED POLITICIZATION, AND BITCOIN NARRATIVES

 

Within the crypto community, the Powell investigation has reinforced several dominant narratives. Despite the recent cooling in rate-cut expectations, many participants continue to view any eventual easing cycle as a structural tailwind for Bitcoin. More importantly, concerns over Federal Reserve politicization are increasingly interpreted as supportive for Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.

 

Bitcoin is being framed less as a speculative asset and more as a non-sovereign store of value, designed to hedge against institutional credibility risk. Some commentators argue that a leadership change at the Federal Reserve could accelerate a shift toward more accommodative policy, further strengthening Bitcoin’s appeal in a liquidity-driven environment.

 

Prominent voices such as Anthony Pompliano have suggested that political pressure on the Federal Reserve could lead to weaker equities, higher volatility, a softer dollar, and stronger performance for Bitcoin and gold—a pattern partially reflected in early 2026 data.

 

CONCLUSION: POWELL INVESTIGATION, FED POLICY RISK, AND BITCOIN’S STRATEGIC ROLE

 

The criminal investigation into Jerome Powell marks a significant escalation in the long-standing tension between political authority and central bank independence. While officially centered on a headquarters renovation project, the investigation has heightened fears that monetary policy could become increasingly politicized.

 

In the short term, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $90,000 while equity futures declined suggests a meaningful shift in market perception. Rather than trading purely as a risk asset, Bitcoin is increasingly functioning as a hedge against institutional uncertainty and fiat policy risk. Technical indicators and derivatives positioning support this view, even as leverage-related risks remain.

 

Looking ahead, the investigation introduces a new layer of complexity into an already fragile macro environment. If leadership changes or political pressure accelerate a dovish policy shift, the resulting liquidity dynamics could provide a meaningful medium-term tailwind for Bitcoin. Ultimately, while the investigation raises short-term uncertainty, it may strengthen the structural case for Bitcoin as a hedge against the erosion of monetary credibility.

The above viewpoints are referenced from Ace

 

Read More:

Why Gold Is Surging: Central Banks, Sanctions, and Trust-1

Gold Front-Runs QE as Bitcoin Waits for Liquidity-2

〈Powell Criminal Investigation Sparks Fed Uncertainty, Bitcoin Holds Firm〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。

Potrivit rapoartelor, dacă legislația viitoare include restricții asupra mecanismelor de recompensare pentru stablecoin, Coinbase ar putea reconsidera sprijinul său pentru proiectul de lege privind structura pieței de active digitale.
Această dezvoltare evidențiază stimulentele pentru stablecoin ca un punct crescut de tensiune între industria cripto și reglementatori, cu implicații potențiale atât pentru progresul legislativ, cât și pentru poziționarea industriei.
#Coinbase #Stablecoin #Crypto

Creșterea rapidă a "Sunt În sfârșit Aici" evidențiază cum declarațiile celebrilor și aprobarea platformei pot transforma instant o mamă într-un activ speculative cu lichiditate ridicată.

 

Dezbaterea polarizată în jurul tokenului reflectă tensiuni mai profunde între expresia culturală, legitimarea mămăligii și favoritismul perceput în cadrul ecosistemelor centralizate de schimb.

 

Angajamentul Binance cu monedele meme nu este atât o chestiune de gust, cât o necesitate structurală, determinată de rolul său ca cel mai mare CEX care concurează pentru lichiditate, utilizatori și activitate de tranzacționare.

Legea GENIUS a avut ca scop clarificarea reglementării stablecoinurilor, dar interzicerea plății dobânzilor a dezvăluit un conflict mai profund privind cine controlează valoarea în timp a dolarii digitale.

 

În timp ce băncile avertizează că stablecoinurile cu dobândă ar putea să scadă depozitele și să slăbească crearea de credite, firmele din domeniul cripto susțin că blocarea randamentului taxează efectiv utilizatorii și reduce competitivitatea globală a dolarii americane.

 

Pe măsură ce stablecoinurile pentru consumatori sunt supuse unor limite stricte, instituțiile financiare mari au avansat cu depozite și fonduri tokenizate, creând un sistem în care instituțiile accesează randamente pe lanț, în timp ce utilizatorii obișnuiți nu pot.

POL a crescut cu aproximativ 51% într-o săptămână, pe măsură ce activitatea de ardere pe lanț a atins niveluri record, reducând oferta eficientă prin mecanisme de taxă legate de utilizare, mai degrabă decât prin răscumpărări discretionary.

 

Transferurile mari de POL către locații precum Binance și GSR Markets par consistente cu o poziționare structurată și gestionarea lichidității, nu cu o distribuție directă.

 

Sustenabilitatea creșterii depinde de faptul dacă utilizarea sporită a rețelei — și rata corespunzătoare de ardere — poate persista dincolo de impulsul pe termen scurt și de interesul speculativ.

Michael Saylor @saylor posted that the strongest-performing asset categories over the past decade are now clear:
🔹 Digital intelligence: #NVIDIA ( $NVDA)
🔹 Digital credit: #Strategy ( $MSTR)
🔹 Digital capital: #Bitcoin ( $BTC)
His remarks once again place Bitcoin alongside core U.S. technology equities, reinforcing its long-term narrative as “digital capital.” They also reflect an institutional view in which AI, crypto assets, and capital structure are increasingly converging.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell, focusing on the accuracy of his statements and congressional testimony regarding the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project. The project was originally budgeted at approximately $2.5 billion and is now estimated to be over budget by around $700 million.
At a time when rate-cut expectations and policy credibility are highly sensitive, the investigation may further intensify market scrutiny of the Fed’s governance and transparency.
#FederalReserve #Powell #CryptoNews

Aurul la măsură a atins un maxim istoric de peste 4.600 USD pe uncie, beneficiind în primul rând de o incertitudine geopolițică și de politică crescută, în timp ce Bitcoin s-a redresat dar a subperformat din cauza structurii pieței impulsionată de ETF-uri și derivate.

 

Acțiunea prețului Bitcoin rămâne limitată de protecția opțiunilor și de condițiile de lichiditate, chiar dacă narativul său pe termen lung ca mijloc de păstrare a valorii continuă să se întărească alături de aur.

 

Durabilitatea scenariului „dual bull” depinde mai puțin de știrile de ultimă oră și mai mult de faptul că riscul politic persistă, presiunea de protecție se ameliorează și condițiile generale de lichiditate încep să se îmbunătățească.