The MJD Report

Bitcoin (BTC) has once again arrived at a pivotal level — the 50-week moving average, historically known as the “bull market support.” Each time BTC has tested this level during previous cycles, it has rebounded sharply, signaling renewed bullish momentum and confidence among investors.


Now, as BTC trades near $100,000 after a 20% correction, traders and analysts are debating whether this support will once again hold strong — or if this time could be different.



The 50-Week Support: Bitcoin’s Historic Lifeline


The 50-week moving average has consistently acted as Bitcoin’s defining line between bull and bear phases. In every prior cycle, BTC’s dips to this level resulted in major recoveries:




In 2020, Bitcoin rebounded over 104% after touching the support.


In mid-2023, a similar test triggered a 200% surge into 2024’s highs.


Again in 2025, BTC respected this line before rallying 68% within weeks.




These recurring patterns reinforce why the 50W support is more than just a technical indicator — it represents market confidence, liquidity re-entry, and the end of broad profit-taking phases.
Current Structure: Testing the Trend
BTC is now hovering around $100,000, testing the same dynamic support level that previously marked major bottoms. Despite the pullback, the price structure remains within the ascending channel that has guided Bitcoin’s growth since late 2022.
The lower band of this channel aligns perfectly with the 50-week moving average, suggesting this confluence could once again provide the base for the next impulsive leg.
A bounce here could project BTC back toward the $130,000–$150,000 range — the upper boundary of the channel — representing a potential 70–100% upside if history repeats itself.
Why Optimism Still Makes Sense
While short-term sentiment is cautious following the recent liquidation cascade, macro factors continue to favor Bitcoin’s long-term growth. Institutional accumulation remains steady, public company exposure to BTC has grown substantially in Q3 2025, and global demand for hard digital assets persists amid inflation and monetary uncertainty.
Additionally, on-chain data suggests that long-term holders remain largely unmoved. Supply held by entities with over one-year holding periods is near record highs, signaling conviction even during sharp corrections.
When combined with the historical strength of the 50W support, these fundamentals strengthen the “hopeium” argument — that Bitcoin is consolidating before its next all-time high rather than topping out.
What Could Invalidate the Bullish Outlook
Of course, optimism doesn’t equal immunity from risk. The one key level to watch remains a weekly close below the 50W support. If BTC were to lose this structure decisively, it could trigger a deeper retracement toward the $85,000–$90,000 range before finding its next base.
Such a breakdown would also weaken the multi-year ascending channel, possibly delaying new all-time highs until late 2026. Traders should remain flexible — optimistic but not blindly committed.
Outlook for 2025
Assuming the 50-week support holds, 2025 could still see Bitcoin chart new highs above the $130,000 region. The channel projection implies a 70–100% upside potential from current levels, aligning with both prior post-correction rebounds and broader cycle timing.
Momentum indicators are also showing early signs of stabilization, suggesting that the correction phase might be nearing exhaustion. Volume trends hint at accumulation rather than panic — a healthy sign during a structural test like this.
Final Thought
Bitcoin’s retest of the 50-week support isn’t a reason to panic — it’s a moment to observe closely. Every previous touch of this level during a bull cycle has given birth to explosive rallies.
As long as BTC holds this line on a weekly close, the path toward new all-time highs in 2025 remains intact. The market may be filled with fear and uncertainty right now, but sometimes, “hopeium” isn’t just blind faith — it’s an understanding of Bitcoin’s cyclical rhythm.
Patience, as always, remains the best trade.
$BTC
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