Flaneur

Sveiki visiem. Kamēr mēs atstājam aiz septembra lēmumu nedēļu, Fed gaidas un kripto tirgus svārstības, mēs tagad ieejam 2025. gada oktobrī — mēnesī, kas, iespējams, noteiks gada pēdējo ceturksni. “Miers pirms vētras”, ko redzējām septembrī, sāk plaisāt. Tagad svarīgākais jautājums ir, vai šis miers atdos ceļu patiesai svārstībai. Apskatīsim tuvāk to, ko oktobris mums sola.
Oktobra kalendārs: lēmumi, ienākumi un svarīgas datums
Oktobris ir piepildīts ar augsta ietekmes notikumiem globālajā finansē. Mēnesis sākas ar G20 Enerģijas pārejas darba grupu (7.–9. oktobris), kur “kritiskās minerālvielas” būs darba kārtībā. Lai arī šī sanāksme var nekavējoties nepārvietot tirgus, tā var veidot ilgtermiņa ieguldījumu tēmas zaļajā enerģijā un ieguvē.

Hello everyone. We left the first week of September behind with a picture where BTC challenged a critical resistance but couldn't break through, while ETH remained relatively weaker. In this environment where the market's search for direction continues, as we start the second week, both technical levels and short-term option data provide us with important clues. Let's examine in detail what awaits the markets this week and what the data tells us.
This week's macroeconomic agenda is also quite important. Tomorrow, Thursday, September 11th, the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision and US Monthly Inflation announcements could be sources of volatility for the week. However, the markets' main focus continues to be the FED Interest Rate Decision to be announced next week on September 17th. This expectation may cause a cautious trend to dominate the market throughout this week.
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC closed last week with a +2.66% rise. Despite several attempts throughout the week, it couldn't manage to break the $113,000 level that stood like a fortress against it. Starting the week by testing this critical zone again shows that buyers haven't given up, but also demonstrates how strong the sellers are. The Fear and Greed Index in the market is at 53, indicating neutral indecision.

This week's implied volatility range is between 99.5k and 123k. I expect the price to first break the 113k zone and then test the 118-119k area. I think this zone is emerging as a key level for the near term. The probability of a correction from this zone seems quite high. Therefore, I think it's necessary to be careful with trades in these zones and bearish trades could be structured.

The most striking data of this week comes from the short-term (September 12 expiry) options market:
Max Pain: The Max Pain price for weekly expiry is exactly at the $113,000 level where the struggle is taking place.Put/Call Ratio: The Put/Call Ratio for weekly options is at an extremely high level of 1.53. This ratio shows that demand for put options in the market is much higher than call options for the short term. This situation indicates that investors either expect a sharp decline or are heavily hedging their positions against a pullback from the $113k resistance. This data is one of the biggest obstacles to breaking $113k. We also see some increase in the P/C ratio in end contracts.DVOL: With volatility still continuing to decline, uncertainty is also increasing. We can view the coming days as time-passing movements and correction completion movements. It can be said that as volatility decreases during periods when price can break in both directions, the severity of the next move also increases. Taking trades according to the breakout direction and taking volatility trades can give quite good results. The only disadvantage could be causing losses during this time-playing period.

Ethereum (ETH)
ETH showed a weaker performance compared to BTC last week, closing the week with approximately -2% decline. Most importantly, it made a close below the monthly opening price, turning this level into resistance. The most critical resistance zone to follow for ETH is $4,500. Without permanent and high-volume closes above this level, it seems difficult for ETH to positively diverge from BTC.

This week's implied volatility range is between 3600 and 5000. We need to see daily closes above the 4500 area first. Until this condition is met, it can be said that heavy long positions are more likely to cause losses. After testing this zone again, I think a pullback to the 3500-3700 area would be a good move.

ETH's option data tells a different story compared to BTC:
Weekly Option Data (September 12 Expiry):
Max Pain: Weekly Max Pain is at $4,400 level. This shows that price may consolidate in this zone in the short term.Put/Call Ratio: Weekly P/C Ratio is at a neutral level of 1.01. Unlike the extreme pessimism in BTC, the market appears balanced for ETH in the short term.

Monthly Option Data (September 26 Expiry):Max Pain: Monthly Max Pain price has been slightly revised upward from last week's $3,200 level to $3,300.Put/Call Ratio: Monthly P/C Ratio at 0.55 shows that the market maintains its optimistic outlook on ETH in the medium-long term, but there's also some increase here.DVOL (Derivative Volatility): DVOL, which was 70% last week, has declined to 65% this week. This shows that the market's excessive volatility expectation for the short term has decreased somewhat, but is still at high levels. It's likely to decrease further with recent inactivity.
ETH/BTC Pair
Last week, with ETH losing momentum against BTC, there was some pullback in the pair. For ETH to regain strength, it first needs to decisively break the $4,500 resistance in its own Dollar pair. Until this happens, the pair can be expected to remain under pressure for a while. Especially after experiencing a sharp rise, losing the important purple box support here makes a pullback to the 0.033-0.034 area seem possible. Taking short positions on ETH and longs on BTC might be more logical.

Conclusion and Weekly Strategy
The second week of September is a candidate to be a direction-setting week. BTC is challenging the fortress at $113,000, but the extremely high weekly Put/Call ratio shows how strongly this fortress is being defended. ETH is struggling to accompany BTC without breaking its own critical resistances.
Points to consider when determining strategy for this week:
BTC's $113k Response: A decisive rejection from this level could trigger a short-term pullback. A breakout could attract new buyers to the market.
Option Data: Especially the 1.53 P/C ratio in BTC whispers that caution should be exercised against upward movements.
Macro Agenda: ECB decision may create short-term volatility, but the real storm could break next week with the FED. Therefore, a waiting atmosphere may also be seen in the market this week.

Being patient until a clear breakout comes in the market and focusing on key levels will be the right strategy in this critical week. We will closely follow the developments.
#NasdaqTokenizedTradingProposal #BTCvsETH #USNonFarmPayrollReport #OptionTrading #options

Hey everyone! As we leave August's mixed signals behind, it's time to examine the potential turbulence and critical historical data that September might bring. BTC's 6.5% decline despite hitting a new ATH at $124k before closing at $108k, and ETH's 18.8% surge to $4,955 followed by an 11% pullback to close around $4,400, clearly highlight the uncertainty dominating the market. So what's waiting for us in September, a month historically known for its volatility?
September Calendar: Where Risk and Opportunity Converge
The September calendar is packed with critical events that could determine the market's fate. The ECB Interest Rate decision on September 9th right at the start of the month, along with potential tariff and conflict discussions during the 80th Session of the UN from September 9-23, will test global risk appetite. However, the most significant event of the month, and possibly the year, is the FED Interest Rate Decision on September 17th. This decision, made in light of inflation data, has the potential to deeply impact not just crypto, but all global markets. Additionally, astronomical events like the Total Lunar Eclipse on September 7-8 and the Partial Solar Eclipse on September 21 could have interesting effects on market psychology.

Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC closed August with a 6.5% loss. Although it refreshed its ATH by hitting $124,000 during the month, it pulled back due to selling pressure and ended the month around $108,000. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to 46 during this period indicates that fear and uncertainty in the market have increased.

Looking at historical data for September, BTC's average monthly volatility is 22.77%, and its weekly average is 10.52%.

Based on the opening price of around $108,000, this historical average gives us a potential monthly movement range of roughly $83,500 to $133k, weekly movement range is $97k to $119.5k.

Here's what the options market data shows:
Max Pain: The Max Pain price for the September 26th expiry has dropped from last month's $115,000 to $110,000. This suggests that the market's expectation for the month-end expiry has been revised slightly downwards.Put/Call Ratio: The ratio has increased from 0.59 to 0.63. This signals rising demand for put options, indicating that traders are leaning towards hedging or expecting a downturn.DVOL (Derivative Volatility): After hitting low levels last month, DVOL has shown a slight increase from 37% to 39%. This small uptick could be the first signal that the period of "extreme calm" is beginning to fade.Funding Rate: Funding rates continue to hover at neutral levels, suggesting the market is still in a "wait-and-see" mode before a major move.

Ethereum (ETH)
ETH positively diverged from BTC in August, closing the month with an impressive 18.8% gain. While it reached a new ATH at $4,955, subsequent profit-taking led to an 11% drop, with the month closing around $4,400. A Fear & Greed Index of 49 shows the market is wavering between neutral and fear.

Looking at the historical data for September, ETH's average monthly volatility is 35.24%, with a weekly average of 16.06%.

Based on the opening price of around $4,400, this historical average gives us a wide potential monthly movement range of roughly $2,850 to $5,950, weekly range is $3,700 to $5,100.

Other options data is as follows:
Max Pain: The Max Pain price for the September 26th expiry is set at $3,200. This level indicates significant downside potential from the current price and could act as a magnet on the price towards expiry.Put/Call Ratio: The ratio has decreased from 0.52 to 0.50. This, despite the bearish Max Pain level, shows that overall market optimism is being maintained and demand for call options remains strong. This is a contradiction that should be watched closely.DVOL (Derivative Volatility): DVOL's rise from 69% to 70% is the strongest evidence that ETH is poised for a much more volatile month compared to BTC.

ETH/BTC Parity
ETH's strong performance against BTC in August pushed the pair upwards. The continued optimism in the ETH options market (low P/C ratio) in September suggests this strength could continue. However, a sharp market-wide sell-off, especially after the FED's decision, could cause ETH to pull back along with BTC. The pair's ability to maintain its strength will depend on the overall risk appetite in the market.

DVOL: The Silence is Ending, Is the Spring Uncoiling?
Last month, we called the historically low BTC DVOL a "calm before the storm" and interpreted it as a warning. The initial data for September shows that this silence is beginning to crack. Although the slight rise in BTC's DVOL is a small signal, it suggests the market is starting to move out of its state of extreme complacency. ETH's consistently high DVOL was already keeping expectations for a big move alive. The coiling spring is slowly starting to release, and the September 17th FED decision could be the event that fully triggers it. Regardless of the direction, it seems the markets are preparing for a level of activity they haven't seen in a long time.
Conclusion
Following the mixed signals of August, September is shaping up to be a decision month. The growing caution in BTC and bearish sentiment in its options market are contrasted with the underlying optimism and high volatility expectations for ETH. However, all these internal dynamics are overshadowed by the FED's interest rate decision mid-month. This decision will be the key that determines which way the market's pent-up energy will be released. As the calm before the storm ends, we are entering a month where investors need to be prepared for every scenario. We'll be keeping a close eye on developments.
#RedSeptember #TrumpTariffs #FedRateDecisions #september #ListedCompaniesAltcoinTreasury

Hello everyone. As we leave July behind with significant gains, it's time to examine the potential movements and critical data that August will bring. After BTC's new peak in July and ETH's notable rise, markets are seeking a new balance. So, what awaits us in August with its intense macroeconomic and geopolitical agenda?
August's calendar is packed with important dates that could trigger volatility in the markets. The deadlines regarding Russia/Ukraine tensions on August 8th and US-China tariff tensions on August 12th could directly affect global risk appetite. The month's most critical data will be the US CPI data to be announced on August 12th. This data will play a decisive role in FED's interest rate policies with the signals it gives about inflation's trajectory. At the end of the month, the Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for August 21-23, will be closely watched for the messages central bank governors and leading economists give regarding monetary policy.

Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC closed July with an 8% rise and a new ATH. However, despite this rise, a significant decrease in volatility was observed throughout the month. July's overall volatility was 17%, while the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 53 indicates some market uncertainty.

Looking at historical data for August, BTC's monthly average volatility is around 29%, weekly average 12%. This gives a monthly price band of 83k-148k, and weekly 100k-128k.

However, the recent low volatility trend and August's potential to be generally calmer suggest we might see a more compressed movement this month too. In this context, a pullback to the $110,000-$112,000 region in a possible retreat can be considered normal. In months when volatility drops this much, selling option contracts is one of the most logical choices.

Looking at options market data:
Max Pain: For August 29 expiry contracts, Max Pain price is at $115,000, similar to monthly opening
Put/Call Ratio: The ratio has declined to 0.59, showing decreased demand for put options and increasing market optimism
DVOL (Derivative Volatility): DVOL declining from 39% to 37% confirms continued low volatility expectations for the near term. We'll revisit this topic at the end of the article
Funding Rate: Funding rates are moving at neutral levels, indicating no excessive long or short position accumulation and a waiting stance

Additionally, in August 8th contracts, BTC's 110k strike contracts have seen significantly high demand with a Put/Call ratio of 1.20, showing quite bearish expectations. For ETH, 3500 strike put contracts are in high demand with a P/C ratio of 1.10.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH literally put on a show in July. Recording approximately a 59% jump during the month, ETH closed with a 49% rise. During this process, quite high volatility of 63% was recorded. With the recent correction, the Fear and Greed Index is at 58, positioned between neutral and greed.

For ETH, August historical averages point to higher volatility compared to BTC, with monthly 40% indicating a 5200-2200 range, and weekly 16% indicating a 2950-4050 price range. For scalpers, with a daily average of 5.5%, nice intraday trades can be caught.

After this sharp rise, two scenarios stand out for August: First, experiencing some cooling along with BTC and a correction movement toward the $3,000-$3,100 region. Second, taking advantage of BTC's sideways movement and attempting new peaks with money flowing to altcoins. My expectation is that prices will move more sideways and correctively throughout the month, with potential activity concentrating toward the end of the month.

Options market and other data are as follows:
Max Pain: For August 29 expiry contracts, Max Pain price is at $3,000, an important support level
Put/Call Ratio: At 0.52, this ratio shows that bullish expectations for ETH are stronger compared to BTC and the market is quite optimistic
DVOL (Derivative Volatility): Though declining from 68% to 65%, it's still at a very high level compared to BTC. This shows the options market keeps volatility expectations alive for ETH, though there's some general pullback.

ETHBTC
Experienced a pullback from 0.033 to 0.03 and found good support here, but I don't think it has the strength to make new peaks. I think it wouldn't be wrong to expect some pullbacks. I think the 0.026-28 region is a very good area for buying.

DVOL and the Emerging Calm Before the Storm
DVOL, the implied volatility index for cryptocurrencies, gives us a very important signal about the market's mood. Similar to the VIX index in traditional markets, DVOL measures options market players' expectations for future price movements.
BTC's DVOL index is moving at near-historic lows (37%). This shows the market is in excessive complacency and doesn't expect major price fluctuations in the near future. However, financial market history has taught us this: Extremely low volatility is usually a harbinger of extremely high volatility to come. The market is like a compressed spring. When it moves sideways for so long and volatility drops this much, the first break (upward or downward) is usually very sharp and explosive. While it's difficult to predict direction, this whispers that we need to be prepared for a sharp trend beginning in the coming weeks. Also, the biggest advantage of such low volatility is the cheapening of option contracts. As volatility expectations drop, contracts also become cheaper, giving you access to cheaper purchases.
Conclusion
In markets that closed July strongly, August appears to be a month of direction-seeking and finding balance. The historically low volatility observed in BTC resembles the calm before a major storm, while ETH maintains more dynamic and optimistic expectations. Macroeconomic data during the month, especially CPI and messages from the Jackson Hole Symposium, could be triggers that break the market's silence. While options data paint cautiously optimistic expectations on one hand, the "calm before the storm" image created by DVOL on the other shows we need to be prepared for a sharp movement that could happen in any direction at any moment. We'll closely follow developments.
#TrumpTariffs #WhiteHouseDigitalAssetReport #BTCReserveStrategy #EthereumTurns10 #OptionsTrading

Hey everyone. As we enter the final week of July, we've closed out the previous week with a clear divergence in the market. While Bitcoin has entered a resting phase with low volatility after its new high, the long-awaited move came from Ethereum, which completely dominated the week. With options expiration approaching, let's dive in and see what the data is telling us.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Last week's summary clearly shows that BTC has passed its energy and momentum to altcoins, especially ETH. The price closed the week with a slight drop of 1.5%, but the Fear & Greed Index remaining at 73 indicates that investors are still maintaining their overall bullish expectations. This sideways movement can be read as a consolidation period where BTC is gathering strength for its next big move.

This week's expected volatility (implied volatility) range is between $102k and $132k. The price remaining in this wide range, especially if it tests the lower supports, could be seen as a buying opportunity for the next wave up.

Options Market Data:
Put/Call Ratio: The ratio, which was quite optimistic at 0.65 last week, has risen to 0.76. This indicates that some fear or at least hedging trades have entered the market due to the price stalling near its peak. It's likely that the rise in the Max Pain price to $110k is also related to this, as traders hedge their positions against a higher price target.DVOL: Remaining stable at 39%, it confirms that the near-term expectation for BTC is still one of low volatility.

Ethereum (ETH)
The star of the week was undoubtedly Ethereum. It broke upwards from the long-standing squeeze around the $2500 area with an incredibly powerful candle, as seen on the shared chart. With a massive weekly gain of 28.6%, the volatility that had been expected for months has finally arrived, even exceeding the monthly implied volatility. The surge in the Fear & Greed Index to 80 is also a reflection of this euphoria.

This week's implied volatility range points to a very wide zone between $3000 and $4500. With the breakout now confirmed, all eyes will be on whether this momentum can continue. A pullback towards the $3500-$3300 area and establishing stability there is critical for the continuation of the rally, and a move upwards can be expected again from these zones.

Options Market Data:
Max Pain: Following the price action directly, it jumped from last week's $2,500 level to $2,800. This shows that the market has accepted this as the new equilibrium point.Put/Call Ratio: In a similar move to BTC, we see this ratio has also increased from 0.62 to 0.79. This could reflect some investors taking profits after the sharp rally or hedging their positions against a possible pullback.DVOL: Rising from 66% to 70%, it shows us that after the sharp move, the expectation for future volatility has also increased.

ETH/BTC
With the rally in ETH, the 0.026 and 0.030 resistance levels were broken sharply last week. We can now confidently say that this area is a bottom. Of course, this doesn't mean there won't be pullbacks. However, we have now confirmed, along with the technicals, that ETH will be stronger. For this idea to be invalidated, we would need to see closes below 0.026 and then 0.023. Otherwise, our upside targets are the purple box region at 0.04 and the 0.049-0.050 zone.

#BTCvsETH #ETHBreaks3700 #StablecoinLaw #CryptoMarket4T #AltcoinBreakout

Hey everyone, and welcome to the second week of July. As we saw from the data, we left the first week behind with very calm and compressed price action. The market continues to bide its time, accumulating within a narrow range. This "calm before the storm" situation is revealing some interesting signals in both the technicals and the options data. Let's take the pulse of the market with this week's data and charts.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Last week's summary clearly laid out the general market sentiment: although the Fear & Greed Index showed "Extreme Greed" at 73, the price action was quite stagnant. The week only managed to close in the green thanks to a weekend rally. This situation shows that while investors are optimistic, they are waiting for a catalyst to open new positions.

With every rally, excitement builds, only for the price to pull back again. The price is moving in an increasingly smaller range, while a stronger resistance zone awaits above. The longer this compression lasts, the more powerful the eventual breakout is expected to be. I personally think it's not wise to have high expectations until the ATH is broken with significant volume. This week's implied volatility range is almost the same as last week, between $95.6k and $123k.

Options Market Data:
Max Pain (July 25 Expiry): Remains fixed at $105,000, showing that this area continues to act as a "price magnet."Put/Call Ratio: This was the most volatile data point of the week. The ratio dropped from 0.76 last week to 0.65. This is a bullish signal, indicating that demand for "Put" (sell) options is decreasing while demand for "Call" (buy) options is increasing. The market is pricing in less downside risk and is willing to pay a higher premium for a potential upward move.DVOL: Staying at 39%, it remains near historical lows. If you are expecting a move, now is the perfect time to buy contracts, because when expected volatility is this low, contracts are at their cheapest.Funding Rate: It has started to rise. I think we will soon see whether this increase, despite the lack of significant price movement, is a leading indicator or just a retail-driven move.

Ethereum (ETH)
A similar compression is dominant on the Ethereum side. After a week that saw a 5.4% rise followed by a 5.1% fall, ETH's Fear & Greed Index remains in the "Greed" zone at 65. Its struggle around the $2500 area continues.

The chart shows us again how critical the $2500 level is as a pivot. While the price's effort to stay above this level is a positive sign, the weakness of the rallies doesn't look very good either. Similar to last week, the expected volatility for this week points to a price range between $2070 and $3070. Although my own positioning is skewed downwards, I will be paying close attention to the $2800 zone if the price trades above $2600.

Options Market Data:
Put/Call Ratio (July 25 Expiry): It showed a slight increase from 0.55 last week to 0.62. This suggests that the extreme optimism has normalized a bit, but with the ratio still well below 1, the bullish expectation remains strong.DVOL: Remaining fixed at 65%, it underscores how much more alive the expectation of volatility is for ETH compared to BTC.
ETH/BTC
After the drop to 0.022, the price is moving upwards very slowly. Not much has changed for a while. It appears to be following Path 1, which I outlined in a previous analysis.

Conclusion
The market continues to be squeezed in a narrow band, and this situation is a harbinger of a sharp move to come. Significant changes in some indicators suggest that certain market expectations are now being acted upon.
#TrumpTariffs #DayTradingStrategy #MuskAmericaParty #SpotVSFuturesStrategy #BTCWhaleMovement

Sveiki visiem. Es gaidīju līdz šodienai, lai kopā dalītos nedēļas un mēneša analīzē. Ar nedēļas noslēgumu vakar un jauno mēneša atklāšanu šodien, mēs atstājam 2. ceturksni aiz muguras un uzsākam 3. ceturksni, jaunu ceturksni, kas ir pilns ar kritiskiem datiem un notikumiem kriptovalūtu tirgos. Pēc vispārējā stagnācijas jūnijā, jūlijs izskatās, ka būs intensīvs mēnesis, gan makroekonomiskā kalendāra, gan iekšējā tirgus dinamiku ziņā. Iegremdēsimies tajā, kas mūs gaida.

Tieši mēneša sākumā, 8.-9. jūlijā, ASV 90 dienu pārtraukums attiecībā uz tā sauktajiem "reciprocal" tarifiem uz 180 tirdzniecības partneriem beidzas. Tas var radīt nelielu spriedzi globālajos tirgos. ASV un eirozonas CPI dati, kas tiks publicēti no 15. līdz 18. jūlijam, būs viens no mēneša vissvarīgākajiem notikumiem, tieši ietekmējot centrālo banku turpmākos procentu likmju lēmumus. Mēneša beigās, 30. jūlijā, mēs vērosim ASV un Japānas procentu likmju lēmumus. Gaida likmju paaugstināšana no Japānas, jo īpaši, var izraisīt jaunu svārstīguma vilni tirgos.

End of Q2: When Fear Increases...
We closed last week with a sell-off following the US bombing attempt in the Iran-Israel conflict. Although we saw a dip on Sunday due to rumors of the Strait of Hormuz closing, this didn't fully reflect reality, and yesterday we witnessed ceasefire agreements. In a period where fear had escalated so much, I believed the decline was over and took a long position. I think the coming days are critical.
Bitcoin
Although Monday saw a manipulated increase, it was followed by another sell-off. The rest of the week was dominated by selling, and the range-bound movement continued. While the double top formation on BTC doesn't look very promising, it's worth remembering that during a similarly critical time in the 2021 bull run, it continued its rally even after confirming a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. The possibility of a similar situation should be considered.

Last week, I mentioned that while I expected a new ATH, I was hesitant due to the anticipated risks. With yesterday's weekly open, the price made a nice move by pushing back above the monthly open. I will be hesitant to take short positions as long as the price does not trade below the $103.5k region. Being the last week of Q2, I'm torn between thinking it could be either very volatile or very calm. I will likely avoid taking many trades until I see more decisive movements. This week's implied volatility range is between $86k and $115k.

While DVOL continues to decline, the ratio of put contracts in the month-end options has further increased, with the Put/Call Ratio reaching 0.72 and the max pain level now at $102k. This Friday, BTC contracts worth $14.8 billion will expire.

Ethereum
After an unsuccessful move towards $2700, ETH experienced a pullback all the way to $2100. The price structure, which was stuck around the $2500 level, remained very weak against BTC and suffered a sharp sell-off.

It broke down through that "wicky" structure on the weekly chart with intense selling. However, yesterday it recovered quickly along with BTC and re-entered that range. The weekly implied volatility is in the $1780-$2670 range. Since it still hasn't fully regained its strength, I'm keeping my focus on BTC.

The rise in DVOL has paused; in fact, there's a decline. While bullish positioning continues, the market sentiment remains bullish for this week, although the P/C Ratio for month-end contracts has slightly increased to 0.52. The Max Pain Price is at $2200, the area where it has been stuck for several weeks.

ETH/BTC
The structure of lower highs and higher lows has broken to the downside. However, it currently appears to have found support at the 0.022 region, which I have been mentioning for a long time. Since I expect sharp movements when we see a rise from here, it would be logical to include ETH in long positions. However, for a more significant position, it might be better to wait for a sustained hold above 0.026; otherwise, the trend is still downwards.

#MarketRebound #NEWTBinanceHODLer #IsraelIranConflict #ScalpingStrategy #SwingTradingStrategy

We've left another week behind us, full of up-and-down moves that ultimately closed right where it opened. We're navigating a period of heightened risk, from the Trump-Elon saga last week to the Israel-Iran conflicts this week. We have now entered a week expected to have high risk and volatility, driven by the G7 summit, interest rate decisions, the Iran-Israel conflict, and key data releases.
Bitcoin
During the price's move towards a new ATH, another sell-off occurred from the $110k region. However, it quickly recovered from the $102k area and pushed back above the monthly open. Today, it has once again moved towards the $110k region with another rally.

Although I expect a new ATH this week, my expectation for an ATH within this month continues due to the anticipated risks. I believe it will continue its back-and-forth movements within this range until the first week of July. Therefore, I don't anticipate any extreme upward or downward moves. This week's implied volatility range is between $90k and $121k. On the monthly chart, the highs and lows of previous weeks have still not been breached.

While the DVOL continues to decline, the ratio of put contracts in the month-end options has further increased, with the Put/Call Ratio at 0.66, and no change in the max pain level. For June 20th, the Put/Call Ratio paints a bearish picture at 1.13. The max pain price is $105k.

Ethereum
After making a move above $2800 and failing again, ETH experienced another pullback to the $2500 level. Despite this week's risks, crypto, which saw only a limited decline, continued its ascent today.

In contrast to BTC, I expect a somewhat slower movement from ETH. I believe ETH will proceed more cautiously while BTC maintains its dominance. Although another test of the blue box is likely, it's wise to approach with caution. The weekly implied volatility is in the $2040-$3060 range. I think ETH needs to close the month above at least $2600, and above $2800 for a bullish outlook.

The DVOL for ETH continues to rise. While bullish positioning persists, the market expects a rally this week as well, with a weekly P/C Ratio of 0.66. The Max Pain Price is at $2600, the area where it has been stuck for several weeks.

ETH/BTC
Nothing has changed here; it continues to make lower highs and higher lows. I don't think it's necessary to take any risks until a breakout occurs. From a High Time Frame (HTF) perspective, a move to 0.030 followed by a retest of 0.027 could offer a good entry point. A sustained hold above 0.026 could also be traded for a move towards 0.030.

#IsraelIranConflict #MarketRebound #TrumpBTCTreasury #SaylorBTCPurchase #BinanceHODLerHOME

We've experienced a week where the price moved slightly up and down, ultimately ending up in the same place. The decline that came with Elon and Trump's standoff was quickly recovered, and the strong structure continues to persist. Although ETH still appears somewhat weaker compared to BTC, Bitcoin continues to carry and dominate the market. We've entered a week where US inflation data will be announced and the G7 summit will begin. Since this will be one of the most critical data points for interest rate cuts, I believe its impact will be significant.
Bitcoin
After making its weekly opening, it closed slightly above its weekly opening with small movements. The price is also trading slightly above its monthly opening. In the movement experienced so far, it appears much less strong compared to ETH.

This week's implied volatility is similar to last week, ranging between 91k and 121k. I think the price harbors a desire to move upward, and I believe these 2 weeks will be quite positive. For this reason, I've taken upward positions.

The decline continues in the volatility index DVOL, but overall, contract purchases are also quite noticeably high. DVOL dropping this much suggests we might see sharp movements soon. In June 13 contracts, the Max Pain Price is 106k, and although call contracts are slightly more dominant, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.95, it can't be said to have a very bullish appearance.

Ethereum
Similar to BTC but with more movement. Weekly closes have been closing in doji candle form for 4 weeks. Here too, similar to BTC trying to close above 102k, it's trying to hold above 2500.

This week's implied volatility range is again in the 2000-3000 range. ETH, which has been making range movements in approximately a 20% area for about 40 days, won't make sense to expect sharp movements without breaking the 2800 area.

In ETH this week, the put/call ratio of 0.80 looks somewhat bullish. With the abundance of contract purchases, we can say sharp volatility is approaching in ETH as well. However, due to its weaker appearance, looking at short ETH and long BTC might be more logical. The max pain level is 2550.

ETHBTC
There isn't much change here, but since mid-May, we see a squeeze with lower tops and higher lows in every movement. It might be more logical to wait for breakouts before taking positions. Otherwise, I don't think there's a bearish outlook as long as it doesn't stay below the 0.021 zone.

#CryptoCharts101 #TradingMistakes101 #USChinaTradeTalks #TrumpTariffs #BigTechStablecoin

Sveicieni pēc ilgas pauzes. Kopā ar jaunajām dizaina izmaiņām es arī pievienoju dažas jaunas funkcijas. Mēs atvadījāmies no maija ar pozitīvu kustību kriptovalūtām. Jūnijs nes svarīgas attīstības, kā arī datus un notikumus, kas veidos kriptovalūtas nākotni. Mēs arī iejaucamies periodā, kur ģeopolitiskās attīstības būs intensīvas. Tagad apskatīsim, kas gaida mūs priekšā.
5. jūnijā ECB paziņos par savu procentu likmju lēmumu, ar 250 bāzes punktu samazinājumu, visticamāk, sagaidāmu. Tam sekos G7 līderu samits no 15. līdz 17. jūnijam, un tūlīt pēc tam FED procentu likmju lēmums 18. datumā. Izņemot šos, visticamāk, mēs piedzīvosim mainīgu mēnesi, ņemot vērā attīstību Krievijas-Ukraiņas karā, miera sarunās un tarifu jautājumos.

Unfortunately, I have not been able to publish monthly and weekly data for a while. For this reason, let's take a general look at May and see the situation.
The price has been neither going up nor down for a few weeks and indecision is increasing. The fact that BTC has been at the peak of ETH under significant resistance leaves people in the middle between a sharp correction or an increase. I do not see any signs that this region is the top yet. The fact that the classic ladder structure continues right now and the price does not willingly go up or down is very bullish and does not show a peak structure. Such a statement is not true when no market structure is broken and there is no HTF weakness. Yes, the markets are uncertain due to policy inflation and interest rates, but I also think that the uncertainty here should not be considered the market.

Although the movement in BTC is not as strong as ETH, it still looks good. However, due to both the beginning of the month and the weakness in the recent structures, I think it will make a correction and the price may pull back to the 98k region. If you take a broader view of the chart and look at it with a weekly time frame, you can see that the last candlestick structures are not very good and there could be a potential double top. I think that the price will start to rise with the rumors of double tops and the increase in panic when it reaches the 98k or maybe 91k region next week. Of course, we can go from here without any correction and call it a classic BTC bull and look back, but this scenario seems more logical to me since uncertainty is so effective and monetary policies are still not loosening. If we see dovish statements in the FED interest rate decision and the discourses before it in 19 days, I think we will have very good months ahead of us.

Monthly implied volatility in ETH seemed to be 70% due to the 2017 pump. If we did not add the data from that date, implied volatility could be expected as 50%. ETH both gave people hope again and gained some strength with a move of up to 58%. We see that we have seen a bottom formation in ETHBTC and maybe there may be another bottom attempt. Frankly, I do not expect this movement very much due to the V-shaped image, but I keep it among the possibilities.

The monthly image is quite bullish, it seems to have a weekly image that is prone to a bit of correction. The important points on my charts have been fixed for months. One of them is the red line 2500 and the blue box in the 2800-2900 area. As I mentioned before, it is not right to dream too much before these areas are completely broken. We still have not seen a good weekly close above 2500. For this reason, I will start positioning upwards in the correction that will come with the new month. The 2480-2300-2100 areas will be my buy points for upward positions. This is my general plan.

In summary, although the possibility of the price moving sharply in both directions is taken into account, it does not change the fact that our direction is up. For this reason, if you are in between, it may make sense to establish two-way positions. Yes, it will be a little more costly, but you will reduce your risk and the possibility of missing the move. Positioning in a two-way direction between 8-10% on a monthly basis may make sense.
Good days to all of you in the new month

February closed in red for the third time in BTC's history and the second time in ETH's history. We've left behind a February that ended with sharp declines, making many investors uneasy with its movements at the top. As we enter March, when quarters will close, important news and data await us. During these days of high-impact data on prices, numerous factors are at play, including war, tariffs, economic conditions, and inflation. Expectations have increased with Trump's announcement of important news tomorrow. Additionally, the White House will host a crypto summit on March 7.

Bitcoin
Last week's decline broke the narrow price movement within the month. Although monthly implied volatility remained lower, recent movements have increased volatility expectations. Despite breaking below the important 90k support, it climbed back above with March's opening.

Looking at March data, we can expect monthly average volatility of 33% and weekly of 15%. This suggests a price range from the monthly opening at 84k between 56k and 112k, and from today's weekly opening between 80k and 109k. The 88k region can be monitored as a pivot.

While $11 billion worth of contracts were purchased for March 28, the Max Pain price is 85k. The Put/Call Ratio at 0.45 indicates quite bullish expectations. The Funding Fee has also turned positive again.

Ethereum
ETH experienced a 36% drop after the monthly opening, followed by range movement between 2500-2850. With last week's decline, the 2075 region again served as support. It approached implied volatility with 38% monthly volatility.

March presents a handicap. In March 2017, its rise from $15 to $55 created 250% volatility. This is significant enough to mislead our data. Therefore, I'll share and graph the ratios excluding 2017's data. After this adjustment, monthly average volatility is 66%, weekly approximately 22%. Excluding 2017, the monthly average becomes 40%, weekly 17.5. Monthly 66% Implied volatility range shows $750-3700, 40% shows $1340-3140, and weekly shows 1965-3160. The 2550 region can be monitored as a pivot.

For March 28, $2 billion worth of contracts were purchased, with Max Pain price at $2800. The Put/Call Ratio at 0.34 indicates very bullish expectations. DVOL shows a 68% increase.

ETHBTC
Though testing the 0.3 region, it continues its downward trend. I believe we shouldn't see closures below the expanding channel. Perhaps the movement providing ETH's high volatility could come through ETHBTC chart movements. We might see much sharper movements with price moving up or down. I consider 0.0195 and 0.03 as important support and resistance areas that should work during sharp movements.

#USCryptoReserve #MarketRebound #BTCRebundsBack #CMEsolanaFutures

Pagājušajā nedēļā tirgus redzēja Ethereum mēģināt pārsniegt 2850 atzīmi, kamēr Bitcoin pārvietojās kā stabils monēta. Tirgus sastapās ar divām pārdošanām stagflācijas un ETH hakeru ziņu dēļ. Neskatoties uz to, ka šī nedēļa ir salīdzinoši klusa ziņu ziņā, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index dati piektdien būs nozīmīgi. Turklāt Tramps šodien runās plkst. 22:00.
Bitcoin
Pēc nedēļas atvēršanas Bitcoin noslēdzās nedaudz virs savas nedēļas atvēršanas ar nelielām kustībām. Lai arī tas mēģināja sasniegt 100k, tam tur radās strauja pārdošana. Cena joprojām ir zem mēneša atvēršanas. BTC svārstīguma indekss ir sasniedzis zemāko līmeni kopš 2024. gada jūlija. Ja DVOL paliks zem 42, mēs varētu redzēt būtiskas cenu kustības.

BTC mēs esam redzējuši apmēram 5% kustību, kamēr ETH parādīja apmēram 10% kustību, ar cenu veicot ierobežotas augšupejošas un lejupejošas kustības pirms atgriešanās pie savas atvēršanas. Es nedomāju, ka ir jēga izveidot smagas pozīcijas, nepārlaužot identificētos atbalsta un pretestības līmeņus.
Bitcoin
Pēc nedēļas atvēršanas BTC noslēdzās nedaudz zem šīs atvēršanas ar nelielām kustībām. Cena joprojām tiek tirgota zem mēneša atvēršanas. Līdz šim tā izskatās daudz vājāka salīdzinājumā ar ETH šajā kustībā.

🔥 Mana svārstīguma tirdzniecības iestatīšana pirms CPI datiem! 🔥
Sveiki, tirgotāji! Ar CPI datiem ap stūri, es izveidoju svārstīguma tirdzniecību. Lūk, mans plāns:
💰 15. februāris: 2450 Call (14.5$) + 2800 Put (14.5$)
Kopējās izmaksas: 29$.

Februāra 15. ETH opciju līgumi
📅 Kāpēc 15. februāris?
Šī nedēļa, ieskaitot piektdienu, ir piepildīta ar svarīgām ziņām. CPI var izraisīt svārstīgumu, bet, ja gaidītais kustības punkts netiks sasniegts, citas ziņas vai kavētas tirgus reakcijas var vēlāk radīt aktivitāti.
💡 Kāpēc šie līgumi?
Mans mērķis ir gūt peļņu no līguma vērtības. Tā kā termiņš ir tālāks, līgumi ir dārgāki. Es izvēlējos streikus tālu no vietējās cenas, bet tuvu potenciālajam svārstīgumam. Ja apjoms paliek zems, es negaidīšu uz realizāciju — līguma vērtība ir galvenā.

Sveicieni no inflācijas nedēļas
Mēs esam iegājuši nedēļā, kurā tiek gaidīta papildu volatilitāte. Mūs gaida aizņemta nedēļa. Mēs varam teikt, ka šie inflācijas dati ietekmēs gaidāmās procentu likmju lēmumus. Visā nedēļā būs svarīgas ziņas un dati. Jūs varat redzēt detaļas zemāk. FTX paziņoja, ka atmaksas sāksies 18. februārī ar 20.5% procentu likmi. Turklāt Tramps paziņoja, ka parakstīs izpildrīkojumus pulksten 13:00 ET.
Nedēļas svarīgie notikumi un ziņas (GMT +3):
Otrdiena 19:15 - ECB prezidenta Lagardas runa

Sveicieni pēc ilgas pauzes. Mēs esam iegājuši nedēļā ar straujiem pārdošanas darījumiem pēc mēneša slēgšanas. Lai gan BTC būtiski nenoslīdēja, mēs novērojām kritumus līdz pat 30% ETH un altcoinās. Iepriekš es biju dalījies ar grafikiem Twitter, kas norādīja uz šiem potenciālajiem pārdošanas darījumiem. Februāris nes būtiskus attīstības un notikumus, kas veidos kriptovalūtas nākotni. Apskatīsim, kas mūs sagaida. Inflācijas dati, kas gaidāmi 12. februārī, ir izšķiroši, jo tie noteiks nākotnes procentu likmju samazinājumus un monetārās politikas. Turklāt FTX atmaksas sāksies februāra beigās, kas ir ļoti cenu ietekmējošas ziņas.