How One Polymarket User Turned Losing Bets Into $106K Monthly Profit
TLDR:
Polymarket trader sb911 earned $106K in one month with only 25.51% winning predictions.
Strategy focused on buying multiple Elon Musk tweet ranges at 1 to 10 cents per share.
One winning trade turned $1,100 into $79,000 for over 6,600% return on investment.
Approach relied on asymmetric payoffs where small losses fund rare explosive wins.
A Polymarket trader has generated over $106,000 in profit during the past month despite winning only one in four predictions.
The counterintuitive performance has sparked discussion about probability trading versus traditional speculation.
Trader sb911 completed 294 predictions with just 75 wins, yet walked away with substantial returns. The strategy relied on asymmetric payoffs rather than prediction accuracy.
Betting on Predictable Behavior Patterns
The core of sb911’s approach centered on weekly markets asking how many times Elon Musk would post on X.
Data from Lookonchain shows these markets appeared repeatedly with defined tweet ranges. Each week featured multiple options like 200 to 219 tweets, 220 to 239, and 240 to 259.
Musk’s posting habits remain statistically consistent over short periods. This consistency made the activity measurable rather than random.
The trader didn’t attempt to pinpoint exact outcomes.
Instead, sb911 purchased shares across several adjacent ranges in the same week. Polymarket structures each range as a separate betting market. However, tweet counts follow continuous probability distributions.
By covering multiple brackets simultaneously, the strategy captured most realistic outcomes. The method treated connected ranges as a single probability spectrum.
Entry prices played a critical role in the math.
Many winning positions cost just 1 cent, 3 cents, or 5 cents per share. Correct predictions settled at 100 cents per share. This created extreme upside with limited downside risk.
A $1,100 investment in one position returned roughly $79,000. That single trade represented a return over 6,600 percent.
1/ Let's break down how trader sb911 did it pic.twitter.com/41BaaBrg0n
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 11, 2026
Small Losses Fund Rare Explosive Wins
Most individual bets ended in total loss.
The trader’s history shows dozens of positions dropping to zero value. This wasn’t a flaw in execution but a feature of the design. The approach accepted frequent small failures to capture infrequent massive successes.
Position sizing kept losses manageable while wins compounded dramatically.
According to Lookonchain, sb911 focused on events with clear resolution rules and repeating patterns.
The markets resolved based on verifiable tweet counts rather than subjective outcomes. This eliminated ambiguity and allowed probability modeling. The trader wasn’t guessing which specific range would hit. The question became whether realistic scenarios could be covered at favorable prices.
The 25 percent win rate masked the actual profitability mechanism. Expected value calculations drove decision making rather than win frequency.
Shares purchased for pennies occasionally exploded in value when ranges hit. One successful outcome funded dozens of failed attempts. This math works when upside multiples dwarf the frequency of wins.
Traditional prediction accuracy metrics don’t capture this type of trading.
Win rates measure correctness but ignore position sizing and payout ratios. A portfolio can lose money with 75 percent accuracy if losses outweigh gains.
Conversely, 25 percent accuracy becomes profitable when winners return 50x or 100x their cost. The sb911 case demonstrates trading probability distributions across correlated markets rather than isolated predictions.
The post How One Polymarket User Turned Losing Bets Into $106K Monthly Profit appeared first on Blockonomi.
Dubai Updates Crypto Rules: No Privacy Tokens, New Stablecoin Standards
TLDR
The DFSA has banned all privacy tokens from use within the Dubai International Financial Centre.
The new rules prohibit mixers, tumblers, and tools that obscure crypto transaction data.
Licensed firms must now assess and approve the crypto tokens they offer, replacing DFSA’s approval list.
Stablecoins are now limited to fiat-backed tokens with high-quality, liquid reserves for stress redemption.
Algorithmic stablecoins like Ethena are excluded from Dubai’s stablecoin definition but are not banned.
Dubai has enforced new crypto regulations that ban privacy tokens within its financial free zone, the DIFC. The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) also shifted the responsibility for token approvals to licensed firms. The rules introduce stricter guidelines around stablecoins and prohibit privacy-enhancing tools such as mixers and tumblers.
Privacy Tokens Face Full Restriction in the DIFC
The DFSA has prohibited the use, trading, promotion, or derivative activity involving privacy tokens in or from the DIFC. The ban covers assets that anonymize holders or transaction history, such as Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC). This measure comes as part of compliance with Financial Action Task Force (FATF) standards.
Elizabeth Wallace, DFSA associate director, said the restrictions were essential for AML compliance, stating, “It’s nearly impossible to comply if trading privacy tokens.” The FATF requires firms to identify both the originator and the beneficiary of each transaction. Wallace explained that privacy tokens do not allow that traceability to take place.
She added that most anti-money laundering requirements cannot be satisfied when firms use tokens designed to hide user activity. The ban applies directly to licensed entities under the DFSA, targeting privacy coins and associated tools. These include mixers, tumblers, and obfuscation software used to conceal transaction data.
The updated rules now fully align the DFSA’s stance with international regulatory efforts against anonymous crypto activity. Unlike Dubai, Hong Kong permits privacy tokens under a high-bar licensing regime. The European Union is also enforcing measures through MiCA and an upcoming anti-anonymity regulation.
DFSA Revises Stablecoin Definition Under New Rules
The DFSA also changed how it categorizes stablecoins, now calling them Fiat Crypto Tokens under tightened criteria. These tokens must be backed by high-quality and liquid assets tied to fiat currency reserves. The new definition limits the category to those that can fulfill redemptions under stress conditions.
Wallace said algorithmic stablecoins, such as Ethena, do not meet these requirements under the revised rules. “In our regime, Ethena wouldn’t be considered a stablecoin,” she confirmed. The token would instead fall under general crypto assets without stablecoin classification. Wallace added that the focus is on ensuring redemption is possible and that reserves are transparent and liquid.
The rule targets redemption quality rather than outright banning algorithmic tokens, which are still allowed as long as firms disclose their risk. Dubai’s approach now mirrors global regulatory focus on asset-backed stablecoins and liquidity safeguards.
The post Dubai Updates Crypto Rules: No Privacy Tokens, New Stablecoin Standards appeared first on Blockonomi.
Powell received DOJ subpoenas threatening indictment over June Senate testimony on building renovations
Fed chair claims real issue is central bank setting rates based on economics, not White House preferences
Powell served four administrations and vows to continue duties despite unprecedented legal pressure
Subpoenas test whether Fed maintains evidence-based policy or succumbs to political intimidation
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Department of Justice issued grand jury subpoenas threatening criminal indictment over his June Senate testimony on building renovations.
Powell characterized the action as retaliation for the Fed’s independent interest rate decisions rather than genuine concerns about his congressional testimony.
The subpoenas mark an unprecedented escalation in tensions between the central bank and the current administration over monetary policy control.
The Justice Department served the Federal Reserve with subpoenas related to Powell’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee last June.
His testimony addressed a multi-year renovation project for historic Federal Reserve office buildings. Powell stated the Fed maintained transparency with Congress throughout the renovation process through testimony and public disclosures.
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: https://t.co/5dfrkByGyX pic.twitter.com/O4ecNaYaGH
— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) January 12, 2026
“I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy,” Powell said. He acknowledged no official, including the Federal Reserve chair, stands above legal scrutiny.
However, Powell framed the DOJ action within a pattern of administration pressure on the institution.
Powell dismissed the stated justifications for the subpoenas as pretexts. “This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings,” he explained.
The chair argued the criminal threat stems from the Fed setting interest rates based on economic assessments rather than presidential preferences.
Powell Commits to Continuing Senate-Confirmed Role
The Federal Reserve chair has served under four presidential administrations from both political parties. “In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment,” Powell stated. His focus has remained exclusively on the Fed’s dual mandate.
Powell described public service as sometimes requiring resilience against threats and intimidation. “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions,” he said.
The chair questioned whether monetary policy will follow data-driven analysis or political pressure.
Despite the unprecedented nature of the DOJ action, Powell pledged to continue his Senate-confirmed responsibilities. “I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do, with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people,” he stated.
The chair’s statement represents a direct public challenge to what he characterized as the administration’s attempts to influence monetary policy through legal threats.
The post Powell Claims DOJ Subpoenas Target Fed Independence Over Interest Rate Policy appeared first on Blockonomi.
Coinbase draud atcelt kriptovalūtas likumprojektu, saistībā ar stabilās monētas atalgojumu strīdu
TLDR:
Coinbase varētu atcelt atbalstu, ja likumprojekts ierobežos stabilās monētas atalgojumu aizvietošanas prasībām
Banku nozare pretojas atalgojuma pieprasījumiem, apgalvodama, ka tie iztukšo depozītus un draud kopienas kredīta spējai
Stabilās monētas ieņēmumi sasniedza 1,3 miljardus ASV dolāru Coinbase 2025. gadā, padarot atalgojumu uzņēmuma būtisku
Pārpartijas atbalsts samazinās, kad piektdien tuvojas Senāta izskatīšana, ar iespēju, ka likumprojekts tiks pieņemts zem 70 procentiem
Coinbase draud atcelt atbalstu lielam ASV digitālās aktīvu struktūras likumprojektam, ja likumdevēji iekļaus ierobežojumus, kas pārsniedz uzlabotās ziņošanas prasības stabilās monētas atalgojumiem.
Liquidation spikes align with sharp price reversals, revealing liquidity hunts rather than genuine trend strength
Rising Open Interest during choppy price action indicates dangerous leverage accumulation across markets
Rapid funding rate fluctuations between positive and negative territory expose unstable trader sentiment
Bollinger Bands show mean reversion patterns driven by leverage resets instead of sustained spot flows
The current behavior of the Bitcoin market reflects leverage-driven dynamics rather than organic spot demand, according to recent technical analysis.
The 1-hour chart setup reveals price movements shaped primarily by liquidation events across derivatives markets. Sharp wicks and rapid reversals continue to dominate trading patterns as overleveraged positions get flushed out.
This environment creates conditions where liquidity-driven trades become the primary driver of short-term direction, rather than genuine buyer or seller conviction.
Derivatives Metrics Paint a Volatile Picture
Liquidation spikes on both long and short positions align directly with sudden price reversals and extended wicks. These patterns typically emerge during liquidity hunts where compressed price action forces out overleveraged traders.
The moves do not indicate underlying trend strength but instead reveal stress building within derivatives markets. Traders caught on the wrong side face forced exits during these volatile periods.
Open interest continues rising during impulsive moves and stays elevated through subsequent pullbacks. This combination of high open interest with choppy price behavior points to leverage accumulation across the market.
Source: CryptoQuant
The buildup creates conditions ripe for sudden squeezes that can trigger moves in either direction. Market participants face increased risk when leverage concentrations reach extreme levels during range-bound trading.
Funding rates demonstrate rapid fluctuations between positive and negative territory throughout recent sessions.
These swings reflect how quickly trader sentiment shifts following major liquidation events. Recovery from deeply negative funding can provide support for short-term bounces.
However, persistently unstable funding often serves as a precursor to additional volatility rather than sustainable trend development.
Bollinger Bands analysis shows price frequently mean-reverting toward the mid-band during recent trading sessions. Band expansion episodes coincide directly with liquidation-heavy price moves rather than sustained directional momentum.
The volatility appears manufactured through leverage resets instead of genuine spot market buying or selling pressure. This pattern reinforces the view that derivatives positioning drives current price discovery mechanisms.
Liquidation spikes warrant treatment as volatility warnings rather than direct entry signals for position building. Elevated open interest combined with stretched funding metrics increases squeeze risk across the board.
High-leverage strategies become especially dangerous when these conditions persist. Market participants should exercise caution when these warning signs appear simultaneously.
Healthier market conditions typically emerge when open interest begins cooling and funding stabilizes. These developments prove more constructive than scenarios where open interest rises during rebounds.
The current setup reflects a market where liquidity hunts drive short-term direction through leverage positioning. These metrics remain valuable for identifying risk zones but require confirmation from spot flows and higher-timeframe structure analysis.
The post Bitcoin’s Leverage Hunt: Liquidation Events Drive Price Action as Derivatives Metrics Flash Warning Signs appeared first on Blockonomi.
Altkriptovalūtu dibens: analītiķis izceļ līdzības starp 2019. un pašreizējo tirgus struktūru
TLDR:
Pašreizējā altkriptovalūtu tirgus struktūra atkārto augustā 2019. gadā novērotās apstākļus ar līdzīgiem krītoša trūka raksturlielumiem un makroekonomiskām apstākļiem.
Kvantitatīvās atslābināšanas beigas abos periodos vēsturiski norāda uz likviditātes paplašināšanos un altkriptovalūtu pārsvaru.
Šodienējā ekstremāli baismīgā noskaņa un kapitulācijas stāsti atbilst 2019. gada ICO burvju izplūšanas pesimismam pirms uzplūdes.
Kvalitatīvas projektu izvēle paliek būtiska, jo likviditātes paplašināšanās uzlabo sektorās, taču ne visi tokeni vienādi iegūst labumu.
Kriptovalūtu tirgi rāda tehniskus un makroekonomiskus raksturlielumus, kas atkārto apstākļus, kas bija pirms 2019.-2021. gada altkriptovalūtu uzplūdes, pēc nesenās tirgus analīzes.
Binance Smart Chain ienākumi sasniedza visaugstāko vērtību, veicot tīkla aktivitātes uzplūdu
TLDR:
BSC dienas ienākumi sasniedza 1,3 miljonus ASV dolāru 8. janvārī, pārspējot iepriekšējo rekordu 1,27 miljonu ASV dolāru, kas tika izveidots 30. novembrī
Maksu ienākumi norāda uz patiesu tīkla izmantošanu, jo lietotāji maksā vairāk, lai izpildītu transakcijas dažādās protokolās
Ienākumu pieaugums liecina par liela mēroga akumulācijas paraugiem, kas izveidojas institucionālo dalībnieku vidū
Palielinātais tirdzniecības un pārskaitīšanas darbība liecina par augošu Binance balstīto DeFi protokolu pieņemšanu
Binance Smart Chain iepriekšējos mēnešos reģistrēja savu augstāko dienas ienākumu, sasniedzot 1,3 miljonus ASV dolāru 8. janvārī. Šis rekords pārspēja iepriekšējo maksimālo ienākumu 1,27 miljonu ASV dolāru, kas tika fiksēts 30. novembrī.
Ethereum stakinga pieaugums, kad analītiķi brīdina par pārāk karstiem kriptovalūtu tirgus apstākļiem sākumā 2026. gadā
KĻŪDAS:
Ethereum stakingā redzama zema iziešanas rinda un augsta ieejas rinda, kas liecina par stipru validātoru drošību, lai gan tirgus nevienmērīgums.
Bitcoin MVRV attiecība norāda uz iegādes iespējām, taču analītiķi ieteic gaidīt realizēto zaudējumu apstiprināšanu.
ETF dalībnieki atkārto mazāku investoru uzvedību, nevis ienes institucionālu disciplīnu kriptovalūtu tirgos.
Noskaņojuma metriki un tīkla izaugsmes spīvēšanas vēsturiski iepriekšējās korekcijas, kas pamato uzmanīgu pieeju pašreizējai uzplūdai.
Kriptovalūtu tirgus 2026. gadā ienāca ar neskaidriem signāliem, kad analītiķi izpētīja stakinga datus un noskaņojuma metriku galvenajās digitālajās aktīvās.
Vai mēs varam saņemt maksājumu kriptovalūtā? Krievi kā sārta apsēdina sociālo fondu ar digitālās naudas jautājumiem
TLDR:
Kriptovalūtas pensiju jautājumi kļuvuši par galveno neparasto pieprasījumu, kad 2025. gadā Krievijas sociālais fonds apstrādāja 37 miljonus pieprasījumu.
Darbinieki paskaidroja, ka visas pensijas maksājumus ir jāveic rubļos, savukārt digitālo aktīvu nodokļu apmērs atbilst Federālās nodokļu dienestā.
Vienam zvanītājam izdevās izveidot rekordu ar 1000 zvaniem gadā, katru reizi iepazīstinoties ar citu vēsturisko personu vārdu, sazinoties ar siltās linijas centrā.
Kontaktcentra personāls 2024. gadā saņēma 77 000 mutisku pateicību, lai gan apstrādāja neparastus pieprasījumus, kas bija ārpus standarta sociālās apgādības jautājumiem.
Bitcoin spēka likuma trajektorija norāda, ka zelta vienādība var būt iespējama līdz vidējiem 2030. gadiem
Kādas galvenās iezīmes:
Bitcoin aukstākā kapitalizācijas attiecība ar zeltu ir sekotu spēka likuma izkrišanu ar 0,959 R² korelāciju, izmantojot 15 gadu datu kopu
Attiecība samazinājās no 117 000 2012. gadā līdz 24 2024. gadā, paredzot turpmāku samazināšanos līdz vienādībai līdz 2030. gadiem
Bitcoin piegāde paliek fiksēta uz 21 miljonu monētām neatkarīgi no cenas, radot nepieredētu retuma dinamiku
Pašreizējā 1,8 triljona ASV dolāru kapitalizācija norāda uz 8–9 reižu izaugsmes potenciālu tikai, lai sasniegtu zelta 16 triljona ASV dolāru vērtību
Bitcoin tirgus dinamika turpina izraisīt izaicinājumus tradicionālajiem investīciju ietvariem, jo jauna analīze atklāj pastāvīgu matemātisko sakarību ar zeltu, kas pastāv vairāk nekā 15 gadus.
Kriptovalūtas nekustamā īpašuma iegādes Eiropā pieaug, kad bagātie investori pieņem digitālos aktīvus
Kopsavilkums:
Brighty ir veicis vairāk nekā 100 kriptovalūtas balstītus nekustamā īpašuma darījumus Eiropā, kuru vērtība ir no 500 000 līdz 2,5 miljoniem ASV dolāriem.
Starptautiskie kriptomiljonāri palielinājās par 40%, sasniedzot 241 700 cilvēkus, kas uzlabo prasību pēc cieto aktīvu portfeli diversifikācijas stratēģijām.
Eiro atbalstīto stabilo kriptovalūtas darījumu apjomi pieauga no 15 785 eiro Q3 līdz 59 894 eiro Q4, jo pircēji izvairās no konversijas izmaksām.
Bankas noraida kriptotiesību darījumus, patiesībā blokārkopu analītikas rīki nodrošina pārredzamu pārbaudi par naudas avotiem.
Pēc nesenām nozarē pieejamām datiem bagātie kriptovalūtas investori arvien biežāk izmanto digitālos aktīvus, lai iegādātos nekustamo īpašumu Eiropā.
Stellar tīkls pārvarēja 1 miljardu ASV dolāru slieksni telpās iekļautos reālos aktīvus, kad sākās 2026.
TLDR:
Stellar sasniedzis 1 miljardu ASV vērtības telpās iekļautus aktīvus, norādot uz izaugsmi blokārkārtas pamatotās finanšu sistēmās.
PayPal, FTDA ASV un Ondo Finance sadarbojas ar Stellar, lai paplašinātu institucionālo aktīvu telpās iekļaušanas iespējas.
Tīkls nodrošina ātrāku noslēgumu un zemākas izmaksas salīdzinājumā ar tradicionālām finanšu infrastruktūras sistēmām.
Saderīga ar regulējumu infrastruktūra piesaista regulētās institūcijas, kuras prasa pārbaudāmas tīkla transakcijas.
Stellar pārvarēja 1 miljardu ASV dolāru slieksni telpās iekļautos reālos aktīvus savā tīklā, kad sākās 2026. gads. Blokārkārtas platforma sasniedza šo sasniegumu, sadarbojoties ar tradicionālām finanšu institūcijām un kriptonaivām uzņēmumiem.
UK Crypto Exchanges Moved $1 Billion for Iran’s IRGC Using Stablecoins, TRM Labs Reveals
TLDR:
Zedcex and Zedxion processed $1 billion in IRGC-linked stablecoin transactions between 2023 and 2025.
IRGC-related flows peaked at 87% of total exchange volume in 2024 before declining to 48% in 2025.
Exchanges transferred over $10 million directly to US-sanctioned Houthi terrorist financier Sa’id al-Jamal.
Babak Zanjani, previously sanctioned for laundering billions, connected to Zedxion through corporate records.
Two cryptocurrency exchanges registered in the United Kingdom processed approximately $1 billion in stablecoin transactions linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps between 2023 and 2025.
TRM Labs research revealed that Zedcex and Zedxion operated as front companies for the sanctioned military organization, handling funds that represented 56% of their total transaction volume.
Corporate Structure Masks Operational Reality
Zedcex Exchange Ltd and Zedxion Exchange Ltd incorporated in the UK as separate legal entities but functioned as a single operation.
Zedxion received its incorporation in May 2021, with Babak Morteza assuming directorship in October that year.
US and EU authorities previously sanctioned Babak Morteza Zanjani in 2013 for channeling funds to an IRGC company.
Zedcex incorporated in mid-2022, days after Zanjani formally exited Zedxion. Both companies shared identical virtual office addresses and listed the same successor director.
The exchanges filed dormant accounts through June 2025 despite processing billions in cryptocurrency transactions.
This coordinated structure allowed the operation to spread across multiple legal shells while maintaining unified control.
Zanjani’s background as a sanctions evasion financier adds context to the exchanges’ activities. Iranian authorities arrested him for embezzling millions from Iran’s National Oil Company.
His sentence received commutation in 2024 after repaying the funds. By 2025, Zanjani re-emerged through DotOne Holding Group, operating across cryptocurrency, logistics, and telecommunications sectors.
Blockchain Analysis Reveals IRGC Connections
TRM Labs connected Zedcex-attributed wallets directly to addresses designated by Israeli authorities as IRGC property under Administrative Seizure Order ASO-43/25.
The National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing issued this order on September 1, 2025. Tether subsequently blocklisted many of these wallet addresses.
IRGC-linked flows through the exchanges increased from $24 million in 2023 to $619 million in 2024. The proportion of IRGC-related transactions peaked at 87% of total volume in 2024.
In 2025, IRGC-linked activity declined to $410 million, representing 48% of total transactions as other activities expanded.
The exchanges conducted nearly all transfers in USDT on the TRON blockchain. Wallets routed funds between IRGC-controlled addresses and Iranian crypto services including Nobitex, Wallex, and Aban Tether.
Many wallets held Zedxion (USDZ), a dollar-pegged token promoted through Persian-language Telegram channels. TRM analysts used USDZ holdings to map the exchange infrastructure.
Payment Integration and Terrorist Financing Links
Zedxion integrated with Zedpay, a mobile payment processor operating from Turkey. Zedpay maintained relationships with Turkish financial entities including Vepara and Vakif Katilim.
Turkish regulators suspended Vepara’s license amid anti-money laundering concerns. This integration extended crypto infrastructure into fiat settlement capabilities.
On-chain analysis revealed direct transfers exceeding $10 million to Sa’id Ahmad Muhammad al-Jamal in late 2024.
US Treasury sanctioned al-Jamal for providing material support to the IRGC and operating a smuggling network generating revenue for Houthis in Yemen. The transfers occurred without intermediary routing through brokers or mixers.
ChainUp, a Singapore-based infrastructure provider, hosted portions of the exchange operations. This white-label service allowed rapid scaling while maintaining separate wallet infrastructure for distinct activities.
The hybrid model enabled the exchanges to process high-value transactions while presenting as conventional trading platforms.
The post UK Crypto Exchanges Moved $1 Billion for Iran’s IRGC Using Stablecoins, TRM Labs Reveals appeared first on Blockonomi.
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