Selena Hart

No uzbudinājuma līdz panikai, $ASTER stāsts ir bijis savvaļas. Tikai 3 dienu laikā pēc palaišanas tas pieauga par 1,700%, īslaicīgi sasniedzot $2 un drukājot miljonus agrīnajiem pircējiem. Bet drīz pēc tam tokens saskārās ar 15% korekciju, kad vaļi sāka atbrīvoties — viena maku vienība vienā dienā izlaida $60M vērtībā. Grāmatu pumpēšanas un izsistēšanas noskaņa.
📉 Sviras trakums
Atvērtā interese par $ASTER nākotnes līgumiem pieauga līdz $822M (31% pieaugums dienā), ar ~ $200M jauniem sviras garajiem darījumiem steidzoties iekšā. No malas tas izskatās bullish… bet, ņemot vērā, ka vaļi tur lielāko daļu piedāvājuma, pat neliels kritums varētu izraisīt likvidācijas kaskādi.

A lot has shifted in the last 48 hours. Markets still feel noisy, sentiment is confused, and price action looks shaky… but the macro structure of this cycle is finally becoming clearer.

1️⃣ QT Has Officially Ended

On Dec 1, the Federal Reserve froze the balance sheet. QT is done.

This doesn’t pump liquidity overnight, but historically the 3–9 months after QT ends are where crypto begins its mid-cycle acceleration.

Sequence we’ve seen in past cycles:

• QT ends → liquidity tightening stops

• RRP + reserves stabilize

• Treasury markets calm

• Credit spreads ease

• Risk assets move last

We are now in that window.

2️⃣ Bitcoin & Altcoins — December Snapshot

🔸 BTC is in classic late-stage consolidation: ETF inflows steady, leverage flushed, volatility compressing.

🔸 Altcoins under pressure — normal before liquidity rotation. Historically, alts lag macro shifts by a few months.

🔸 Macro improving:

• US 10Y cooling

• Dollar momentum fading

• PMI flashing expansion

• Equities stabilizing

These are the same conditions seen before past crypto expansions in 2016, 2020, and 2023.

3️⃣ ICP Risk Model — Moderate Buy Zone

The new CCV Intelligence ICP model just posted a Risk Score of 34 — a moderate accumulation zone.

Historically, at this level:

• ICP was higher 56% of the time after 3 months

• 86% higher after 12 months

Years of capitulation → long base → reset into low-risk territory.

Exactly the type of setup that appears before trend expansions.

Final Take:

Sentiment still feels bearish, but structurally the liquidity tide is quietly turning.

Crypto often lags the macro turn — until suddenly it doesn’t.

#Crypto #Binance #BTC #Altcoins #ICP #Macro #Liquidity #QT #FederalReserve

Over the past 48 hours, markets have felt noisy, confused, and directionless — but underneath the volatility, the macro structure of this cycle is becoming clearer. With the Federal Reserve officially ending Quantitative Tightening (QT) and multiple macro indicators aligning, the early signs of a liquidity reversal are emerging. Historically, these conditions have preceded some of crypto’s strongest mid-cycle expansions.

Here’s a breakdown of what’s shifting, why it matters, and how risk-based analytics like CCV Intelligence’s ICP Model fit into the bigger picture.

1. QT Has Officially Ended — and That Changes the Game

On December 1st, the Fed froze its balance sheet. QT — the process of draining liquidity from the financial system — is done.

While this doesn’t spark an instant liquidity boom, past cycles show a predictable sequence:

QT ends → liquidity tightening stops
Repo/RRP balances stabilize
Treasury markets regain footing
Credit spreads ease
Risk assets respond last

The key historical pattern:

🚀 The 3–9 months after QT ends often mark the start of crypto’s mid-cycle acceleration.

This window is exactly where we are now. Yet markets haven’t priced it in, primarily because:

Sentiment is still anchored to short-term volatility
Geopolitical noise dominates headlines
Many investors remain in “cycle disbelief mode”

But structurally, this is the point in previous cycles (2013–14, 2016–17, 2020–21) where liquidity quietly shifts from tightening → neutral → expansion. Crypto tends to lag the turn… until suddenly it doesn’t.

2. Crypto Market Snapshot — December 2, 2025

Bitcoin: Late-Stage Consolidation

BTC continues grinding sideways while ETF inflows remain steady. This is classic behavior seen after long upward expansions:

Volatility compresses
Leverage gets flushed
Strong hands accumulate quietly

Historically, such consolidations have preceded macro-driven trend extensions.

Altcoins: The Pre-Rotation Stress Test

Alts remain under pressure, not because the cycle is breaking, but because they always lag macro shifts.

In previous cycles:

Macro turns first
Bitcoin moves second
Altcoin liquidity rotation begins last

This period — the “stress test” phase — typically flushes weak hands before capital rotates into higher-beta assets.

Macro: The Ingredients for a Risk-Asset Move

Several macro indicators are aligning:

US 10Y yields are cooling, lowering discount-rate pressure on risk assets
Dollar strength is losing steam, historically bullish for global liquidity
PMI readings are showing expansion, suggesting improving economic momentum
Equity markets are stabilizing after November turbulence

These conditions closely mirror past mid-cycle inflection points such as mid-2016 and early-2020.

3. Risk Models Are Flashing Opportunity — ICP Example

The new ICP Long-Term Risk Model inside CCV Intelligence returned a first reading of:

Risk Score: 34 (Moderate Buy Zone)

Historical behavior at this level:

ICP was higher 56% of the time after 3 months
ICP was higher 86% of the time after 12 months

That puts the current environment in the lower-risk, high-asymmetry zone — a region typically seen after long periods of capitulation and base formation.

The chart (from CCV Intelligence) shows:

Multi-year washout
A long accumulation base
A reset into low-risk territory

This aligns with the broader liquidity backdrop: risk models tend to flip earlier than market sentiment — similar to 2020’s post-QT environment.

Conclusion: The Liquidity Tide Is Quietly Turning

We are entering a historically significant phase:

QT has officially ended
Macro indicators are stabilizing
Dollar strength is fading
Treasury markets are recovering
Risk-model signals (like ICP’s 34 score) are shifting into moderate-buy zones

Sentiment remains skeptical, but the structural backdrop resembles previous mid-cycle expansions — the periods where crypto eventually accelerates the hardest.

For investors tracking cycles, liquidity, and rotation dynamics, the next 3–9 months may be the most critical of the cycle.
$BTC

#BTC