GoranCh

💰 Price: $2,101.56
📊 CURRENT SITUATION:
Fresh bounce from extreme oversold zones (12H BW -56, Daily -67) — just crossed zero on 15M and 1H
15M BrainWaves: +15 RISING (just crossed zero)30M BrainWaves: -15 RISING (recovering)1H BrainWaves: +22 RISING CONTRACTING4H BrainWaves: +11 RISING
Multiple bullish breakouts:
D-VWAP BO, W-VWAP BO, Middle Line BO, EMA200 BO (all CURRENT/recent)"Three White Soldiers" on Daily (CURRENT)BrainWaves crossed zero on 15M (CURRENT)
⚠️ MACRO CONTEXT — WHY STILL CAUTIOUS:
Weekly: BW -52 FALLING, exhaustion 80%, delta -155 FALLINGDaily: BW -67 (extreme oversold but trend still down)Monthly: BW +2 FALLING, momentum declining12H: Bearish Market Manipulation (5 bars ago)
🎯 LIQUIDATION ZONES:
ABOVE (magnets):
$2,100-$2,110 — 48H yellow zone (VERY STRONG) — $0-$9 away ⭐$2,115-$2,125 — 24H green/yellow (STRONG) — $14-$24 away$2,120-$2,135 — 48H green/yellow (STRONG) — $19-$34 away$2,140-$2,150 — 12H green/yellow — $39-$49 away
BELOW (targets):
$2,075-$2,085 — 48H green/yellow (STRONG) — $17-$27 below$2,000-$2,020 — 3D/1W green/yellow (STRONG) — $82-$102 below ⭐$1,900-$1,920 — 3D yellow zone (VERY STRONG) — $182-$202 below
💡 CRITICAL DIFFERENCE FROM BTC:

ETH is NOT overbought yet — still has room to push higher before hitting warning zones.
Why ETH different:
✅ BrainWaves 15M only +15 (vs BTC +68 overbought)
✅ BrainWaves 1H only +22 (vs BTC exhaustion signals)
✅ Exhaustion 70% on 15M (high but not extreme like BTC)
✅ Fresh breakouts (D-VWAP, W-VWAP, Middle Line all CURRENT)
✅ "Three White Soldiers" forming on Daily

📈 TWO SCENARIOS — NEXT 24-48H:
SCENARIO 1: Push to $2,120-$2,135 Liquidation Zone (60% probability) — MORE LIKELY
Price continues bounce to sweep $2,115-$2,135 liquidation clusters before potential rejection.
Why more likely:
✅ NOT yet overbought (15M +15, 1H +22)
✅ Fresh bullish breakouts (D-VWAP, W-VWAP, Middle Line)
✅ Daily "Three White Soldiers" forming
✅ Lower TF exhaustion 19-70% (room to extend)
✅ Strong liquidation magnets above ($2,100-$2,135)
✅ Delta accumulating on 4H, 12H, Daily
Targets before rejection:
→ $2,105 (UPPER)
→ $2,112 (Fib 1.0)
→ $2,120-$2,135 (liquidation sweep zone)
SCENARIO 2: Immediate Rejection from Current Area (40% probability)
Price rejected from $2,101-$2,105 (UPPER resistance) without reaching liquidation zones above.
Why possible:
⚠️ Weekly BEARISH FALLING (BW -52, exhaustion 80%)
⚠️ Daily still BEAR trend (BW -67)
⚠️ Monthly momentum declining
⚠️ 12H Bearish Market Manipulation (5 bars ago)
⚠️ Delta distributing on 15M, 30M, 1H (short-term weakness)
Targets:
→ $2,077 (Cluster: LOWER + W-VWAP + EMA50)
→ $2,000-$2,020 (strong liquidation cluster)
→ $1,992 (PDL)
💰 TRADING PLAN:
1️⃣ LONG Continuation (Decent Risk — 60% confidence)
Entry$2,101-$2,105 (current area)Stop Loss$2,068 (below Fib 0.618)TP1$2,112 (Fib 1.0) — R:R 0.3:1TP2$2,120 (liquidation cluster) — R:R 0.5:1TP3$2,135 (upper liquidation zone) — R:R 1.0:1
✅ Why this works:
NOT overbought yet (unlike BTC)Fresh breakouts activeLiquidation magnets aboveDelta accumulating on higher TFs
⚠️ Risk: R:R marginal on TP1/TP2, better on TP3. Must trail stop aggressively.
Confirmation:
Volume continues elevated (>300%)BrainWaves continues rising on 15M/1HNo immediate bearish engulfing
2️⃣ SHORT from Liquidation Sweep (Best Setup — 60% confidence)
Entry$2,115-$2,125 (liquidation sweep zone)Stop Loss$2,145 (above liquidation cluster)TP1$2,077 (Cluster: LOWER + W-VWAP + EMA50) — R:R 1.7:1TP2$2,000 (liquidation cluster below) — R:R 4.8:1TP3$1,992 (PDL) — R:R 5.2:1
✅ Confirmation for SHORT:

Volume spike at $2,115-$2,125Bearish engulfing on 15M/30MBrainWaves starts FALLINGDelta goes more negativeRSI divergence
⚠️ Remember: All higher TFs (1D, 1W, 1M) still BEARISH. Bounce = relief, not reversal.
3️⃣ Wait for Clarity (SAFEST)
Wait for one of two things:
Sweep $2,115-$2,125 + rejection confirmation → SHORTBreakout above $2,135 with volume → reassess (invalidates bearish short-term)
🔑 KEY LEVELS FOR NEXT 24-48H:
RESISTANCE:
$2,105 (UPPER) — $4 above ⭐$2,112 (Fib 1.0) — $11 above$2,115-$2,125 (liquidation zone) — $14-$24 above ⭐$2,120-$2,135 (liquidation zone) — $19-$34 above$2,268 (PWC) — $167 above
SUPPORT:

$2,077 (Cluster: LOWER + W-VWAP + EMA50) — $25 below ⭐$2,069 (Fib 0.618) — $33 below$2,058 (EMA200) — $44 below$2,000-$2,020 (liquidation cluster) — $82-$102 below ⭐$1,992 (PDL) — $110 below
⚖️ BOTTOM LINE:
BEARISH macro, but short-term bounce has MORE room than BTC.
ETH NOT yet overbought (15M +15, 1H +22) unlike BTC (15M +68 overbought). Fresh breakouts active: D-VWAP, W-VWAP, Middle Line, "Three White Soldiers" on Daily.
TWO OUTCOMES:
60%: Push to $2,115-$2,135 liquidation sweep → SHORT rejection40%: Immediate rejection from here → DROP to $2,077 → $2,000
All higher TFs (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) remain BEARISH. Weekly exhaustion 80% (sellers tired, but trend still down).
BEST PLAY:

Option A: LONG current area → take profit $2,120-$2,135 (don't overstay)

Option B: Wait for $2,115-$2,125 sweep + rejection → SHORT toward liquidation clusters below ($2,077, $2,000)
SITUATION CHANGES IF: Close above $2,145 with volume → invalidates bearish short-term thesis.
📌 ETH has more room to bounce than BTC — but it's still a relief bounce within macro bearish structure, NOT a reversal.
#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoAnalysis #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #Liquidation

💰 Price: $69,577
⚠️ OVERBOUGHT WARNING — REJECTION ZONE
📊 CURRENT SITUATION:
Bounce from extreme oversold (12H BW -65, Daily -72) has reached OVERBOUGHT on lower timeframes:
15M BrainWaves: +68 (OVERBOUGHT)30M BrainWaves: +55 (OVERBOUGHT — "Reversal Possible" signal)Delta Bearish Divergence on 15M (1 bar ago)Conviction: 100% BEARISH STRONG (full body red candles)
🎯 CRITICAL ZONE: $69,900-$70,100

Massive 24H liquidation cluster (shorts) — likely target before rejection
📉 WHAT'S HAPPENING:
Price pumped from $68k → $69.6k in low-volume weekend bounce. Now hitting overbought resistance with bearish divergence forming. All higher timeframes (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) remain BEARISH.
⚠️ MACRO CONTEXT — WHY BEARISH:
Weekly: BW -60 FALLING, exhaustion 25% (fresh move, room to fall)Daily: BW -72 (extreme oversold but trend still down)Monthly: BW +19 FALLING, momentum decliningVolume elevated (401-440%) but efficiency LOW (23-28%) = weak conversion
🎯 LIQUIDATION ZONES:
ABOVE (magnets):
$69,900-$70,100 — 24H yellow zone (VERY STRONG) — $322-$522 away$70,500-$71,000 — 48H yellow zone (VERY STRONG) — $923-$1,423 away$72,000-$73,000 — 3-day yellow zone — $2,423+ away

BELOW (targets):
$69,000-$69,300 — 24H green/yellow (STRONG) — $277-$577 away$68,800-$69,200 — 48H green/yellow (STRONG) — $377-$777 away$68,000-$68,500 — Support + liquidation — $1,077-$1,577 away$67,000-$68,000 — 1-week yellow zone (VERY STRONG) — $1,577+ away
💡 TWO SCENARIOS — NEXT 24-48H:
📈 SCENARIO 1: Push to $70k (40% probability)
Price sweeps $69,900-$70,100 liquidation cluster before rejection
Why possible:
✅ Lower TF exhaustion only 4-16% (fresh move)
✅ Strong liquidation magnet above
✅ 1H and 4H not yet overbought
✅ Delta accumulating on 30M, 1H, 4H
What happens next:
→ Volume spike + rejection
→ Bearish engulfing
→ BrainWaves topping
→ DROP to $69k → $68.5k
📉 SCENARIO 2: Immediate Rejection (60% probability) — MORE LIKELY
Price rejected from current level ($69,577) or slightly above ($69,700-$69,800)
Why more likely:
✅ 15M and 30M ALREADY overbought
✅ Delta Bearish Divergence on 15M
✅ Conviction 100% BEARISH STRONG
✅ Weekly BEARISH FALLING, exhaustion 25%
✅ Efficiency 23-28% (weak conversion, absorption)
Targets:
→ $69,200 (EMA200 + support cluster)
→ $68,800-$69,000 (48H liquidation cluster)
→ $68,000-$68,500 (strong support)
→ $67,336 (PDL)
💰 TRADING PLAN:
1️⃣ LONG Scalp (RISKY — aggressive traders only)
Entry$69,577-$69,700Stop Loss$69,037TP1$69,920 — R:R 0.6:1TP2$70,100 — R:R 1.0:1TP3$70,947 — R:R 2.5:1
⚠️ WARNING: Trading INTO overbought against higher TFs. Must exit at $70k-$70.1k — don't overstay.
2️⃣ SHORT from Overbought (BEST SETUP — 60% confidence)
Entry$69,900-$70,100 (sweep zone) OR current if immediate rejectionStop Loss$70,500TP1$69,577 — R:R 0.9:1TP2$69,200 — R:R 1.6:1TP3$68,500 — R:R 3.2:1TP4$67,336 — R:R 5.5:1

✅ Confirmation signals:
Volume spike at $69,900-$70,100Bearish engulfing on 15M/30MBrainWaves starts FALLINGRSI divergenceDelta stays negative
3️⃣ Wait for Clarity (SAFEST)

Wait for one of two things:
Sweep + rejection at $70k → SHORTImmediate rejection + bearish confirmation → SHORT now
🔄 SITUATION CHANGES IF:
Close above $70,500 with volume → invalidates bearish short-term thesis

⚖️ BOTTOM LINE:
BEARISH macro, but short-term bounce reached overbought. Lower timeframes showing "Overbought +55 (Reversal Possible)" + Delta Bearish Divergence = WARNING ZONE for rejection.

TWO OUTCOMES:
40%: Push to $70k liquidation sweep → SHORT rejection60%: Immediate rejection → DROP to $69k → $68.5k

All higher TFs (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) remain BEARISH. Weekly exhaustion 25% = fresh move, room to fall.
BEST PLAY: Wait for $70k sweep + rejection OR immediate rejection confirmation, then SHORT toward liquidation clusters below.
📌 This is a relief bounce hitting overbought — NOT a reversal. Rejection imminent.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoAnalysis #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #Liquidation

📊 CURRENT SITUATION:
Bounce from extreme oversold zones (1D BrainWaves -71, Weekly -52). Lower timeframes (15M-1H) BULLISH, but all higher timeframes (12H-Monthly) remain BEARISH.

🎯 TARGET:
$2,085-$2,100 — massive liquidation zone (shorts) + Previous Day High resistance. Price will likely sweep this level.

⚠️ WARNING:
- 12H: Bearish manipulation (4 bars ago), divergence forming
- Daily: BW -71 (extreme oversold), manipulation detected
- Weekly: BW -52 FALLING, exhaustion 76% (sellers tired but still dominant)
- Monthly: Below ALL major EMAs, momentum declining

🟢 BULLISH FACTORS:
✅ Extremely oversold (Daily -71, Weekly -52)
✅ Bullish divergence on 12H and Daily
✅ Lower TF exhaustion only 10% (fresh move)
✅ BrainWaves crossed zero on 1H
✅ Liquidation magnet $2,085-$2,100

🔴 BEARISH FACTORS:
❌ All higher TFs (12H+) BEARISH
❌ Weekly efficiency 48% (weak conversion)
❌ Monthly: 22% below EMA21, 18% below EMA50
❌ Daily manipulation 2 bars ago
❌ Price below all major VWAPs

💡 TRADING PLAN:

SHORT-TERM (1-2 days):
📈 LONG: $2,045-$2,052 → TP $2,090
🛑 Stop: $1,980
⚠️ Risk: Decent — trading against higher TFs
R:R: 0.6:1 (marginal)

BEST SETUP (2-5 days):
📉 SHORT: $2,085-$2,100 (sweep zone)
🛑 Stop: $2,120
🎯 TP1: $2,041 (Daily VWAP) — R:R 1.6:1
🎯 TP2: $2,010 (liquidation cluster) — R:R 2.7:1
🎯 TP3: $1,980 (support cluster) — R:R 3.7:1
🎯 TP4: $1,753 (Lower + PDL cluster) — R:R 11.7:1 (if breakdown continues)

✅ Confirmation for SHORT:
- Volume spike at $2,085-$2,100
- Bearish engulfing
- BW 15M/30M → FALLING
- RSI divergence

🔄 SITUATION CHANGES IF:
Close above $2,100 with volume → invalidates bearish thesis

⚖️ BOTTOM LINE:
This is a relief bounce within a larger downtrend — NOT a reversal. Wait for sweep, SHORT the rejection, target liquidation clusters below.

📌 Key Levels:
- Resistance: $2,061 (PDC) | $2,092 (PDH) | $2,128 (W-VWAP) | $2,228 (Fib 0.236 Monthly)
- Support: $2,010 | $1,980 | $1,753 | $1,385 (Fib 0.0)

🔗 ETH following BTC structure — both targeting liquidation sweeps before rejection

#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoAnalysis #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis