Bitcoin's 'ultimate' bear market bottom is around $55,000
Bitcoin has not reached full capitulation yet, as key onchain indicators remain in a Bear Phase rather than the Extreme Bear Phase seen at past bottoms. The firm said bitcoin’s realized price support — or “ultimate” bear market bottom — is around $55,000, a level that has not yet been tested and typically takes time to form. Bitcoin's "ultimate" bear market bottom is currently around $55,000, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which said bear market bottoms typically take months to form rather than occur in a single capitulation event.
The firm said bitcoin’s realized price, which historically has been a major price support area in previous bear markets, represents the likely ultimate bear market bottom. Bitcoin is still trading over 25% above that level. In previous bear markets, prices fell 24% below the realized price after the FTX collapse and 30% below it during the 2018 cycle, Firm said. After reaching those levels, bitcoin typically spent four to six months forming a base, it added. Another factor that shows that bitcoin hasn’t yet reached a structural bottom is the large daily realized losses, Firm said. Bitcoin holders recently realized $5.4 billion in daily losses on Feb. 5 when the price fell 14% to $62,000 — the largest daily realized losses since March 2023, when they amounted to $5.8 billion, and larger than the $4.3 billion losses recorded a few days after the FTX collapse of November 2022, the firm noted. Despite the scale of the realized losses, Firm said a price bottom is not near yet. "Monthly cumulative realized losses in bitcoin terms are still much lower than the levels associated with bear market bottoms, 0.3 million BTC today, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market," it said. Several key valuation indicators also remain above historical capitulation zones. $BTC $ETH $BNB #MarketRebound #USNFPBlowout
Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins experienced successive and very sharp declines. During these declines, Bitcoin fell as low as $60,000, while Ethereum (ETH) dropped below $2,000. At this point, analysts expect the declines to continue as cryptocurrencies are in a bear market, while Standard Chartered has released its latest updated forecasts. Standard Chartered analysts, revising their predictions for Bitcoin and Ethereum, stated that the downtrend will continue for a few more days. According to Reuters, Standard Chartered analysts said the cryptocurrency market will bottom out within a few months. In this context, analysts stated that they expect Bitcoin to fall to $50,000 and Ethereum to fall to $1,400 before the market bottoms out. The bank also revised its year-end forecasts downwards. The forecast for Bitcoin was lowered from $150,000 to $100,000, and for Ethereum from $7,500 to $4,000. Bitcoin is trading at around $67,900 at the time of writing and has lost about a third of its value since October. Ethereum is currently trading at $1,980 and has experienced a drop of approximately 60% during the same period. *This is not investment advice