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ポール刑事捜査が連邦準備制度の不確実性を引き起こし、ビットコインは安定している
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2026
2026
ビットコイン
BTC
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39分前
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ポール刑事捜査が連邦準備制度の不確実性を引き起こし、ビットコインは安定している
目次
ポール刑事捜査の背景と連邦準備制度の独立性
政治的圧力、トランプ、および連邦準備制度のリーダーシップ移行
2026年の連邦準備制度の金利引き下げ期待と政策の不確実性

歴史的に見ると、ビットコインの稀な下落年は、三桁の回復を伴っており、2026年はトレーダーたちの注目リストにしっかりと位置づけられています。
ビットコイン
BTC
$90,965
2025年は年初の好調なスタートに続いて、わずかに赤字で終了し、-6.36％のリターンとなりました。年間の損失はわずかに見えますが、歴史的なパターンから、下落年はしばしばビットコインの最も強力な上昇の前触れとなることが示唆されています。

主なポイント：

歴史的に見ると、下落年以降の年にはビットコインがほぼ100％のリターンを記録しています。

長期モデルは、流動性状況が支援的になった場合、約30万ドルの大きな目標を示唆しています。

Bitcoin 'not likely' to make new all-time high in 2026, says new research
Bitcoin long-term short signals from trading tools led analysis to conclude that no new BTC price all-time high would come this year.

BTC$91,261
faces a new “battle” for control before bulls trigger the next round of BTC price gains, but the long-term outlook is grim.
KEY POINTS:
Bitcoin short-term and long-term perspectives contrast as bears stay in control on high timeframes.A golden cross on the day chart does not cancel out short signals for the rest of the year.A new all-time high is “not likely” as a result.
$87,500 retest next stop for BTC price
In his latest X analysis on Wednesday, KEITH ALAN, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, forecast a retest of the 2026 yearly open.
Bitcoin price action is now caught in a tussle between buyers and sellers, but a return to $87,500 is “not a matter of if, but when,” Alan said.

“FireCharts shows a realtime battle unfolding in the $BTC order book,” he said.
“Bulls are trying to defend support at the 2026-01-05 Timescape Level, but Whales appear to be looking for a support test closer to the Yearly Open before a Golden Cross forms on the D chart to trigger the next rally.”

That cross involves the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The former crossing above the latter would indicate renewed strength on lower timeframes.
Before that, however, a support retest of the yearly open is on the wall.
“The battle for it is happening right now,” Alan said, adding:
“If it doesn't happen in the next 24 hours, I expect it will happen after the Death Cross forms on the Weekly chart, around the middle of the month.”

Bitcoin, Ether at “critical inflection points”
Zooming out, other findings had little inspiration for Bitcoin optimists on multimonth timeframes and further out.
Multiple “short” signals, trading tools showed, mean that BTC/USD is unlikely to make new all-time highs before 2027.
“A lot can happen in 6 months that could invalidate it, but at the moment, it’s easy to build a case for price to drop after this current pump loses momentum,” Alan wrote about the six-month chart.
The research held similar conclusions about largest altcoin Ether ETH$3,154, describing both coins as being “at critical inflection points.”
For a true turnaround, one-week relative strength index (RSI) values above 41/100, along with weekly closes above the 50-week SMA at $101,500, are needed.