Ever since this pump started from the $62k zone, a lot of people were already bearish on bitcoin. Many were expecting a wick towards that $58k zone and most retails set themselves up for shorting the market.
The market pumped, Shorts got liquidated. They again tried shorting at $65k but too many of them provided additional fuel to the pump. This in turn squeezed us towards that $70k zone.
Having experienced BTC for the past couple of years, I have seen Bitcoin is master at catching everyone off guard and doing what people are not prepared for.
If you look at the current market scenario, you can clearly see that while $BTC is around the $68k or $69k resistance, our funding is negative and OI is almost decent.
Shorts are still present and retail is bearish on the market. This makes me bullish that we might go on and hunt these shorts towards the first POI at $72.3k and then $79.3k.
Also yesterday's dump was interesting to me. While in every dump whenever we reached resistance, longs entered in the market. Yesterday was different, I saw shorts aping in even on dumps and pumps around this $66k to $67k region. This makes me confident that yes Bitcoin has successfully convinced everyone about THE BIG SHORT setup that they keep waiting for.
I have a tg where I post all these stuff, and a private community where I post the setups too. My bio is where everything is.
$BTC Friday continuations Have collected the last 3 years of data on bullish weekly candles for Bitcoin and it indicates that now is not the time for reversal shorts.
The current weekly low is strong: - Only 7.1% chance to take it based on time - 25.6% chance to take it based on distance made from low to high
Price will likely make a new P2: - 80.1% chance based on time - 26.3% of weeks see more displacement from low to high
Since P1 is likely holding, a new P2 means: new weekly high's. So if your shorting with your stops above the weekly high: be careful.
Don't understand "P1-P2"? Comment "P1" and I send you a tutorial in your DM!
Currently, we're in a redistribution range. The $60-72K zone has been holding price for weeks now and every bounce within it is being sold.
If the bulls have any strength left, there will be an upthrust above this range first. A move above $72K that looks like a breakout, traps late longs, and fails to hold. This won't be an extensive phase.
After that, the next leg down begins. The redistribution range breaks and price will slowly move towards the $40-50K region where I expect the initial accumulation to start.
That's where the cycle most likely resets. Months of boring, grinding, sideways action while professional traders start building positions and weak hands lose interest entirely. The kind of market where nobody wants to look at charts anymore. That's the floor.
Nobody can predict the exact number. But you can predict the process.
So to start the day fresh. I would like to see us wick up to $68,500 - $68,600 before coming back down. I still want to see the lows at $65,500 - $66,600 tested, but not before a liquidity grab higher #BlockAILayoffs #JaneStreet10AMDump