🚨 Breaking: A Costly Bitcoin Trade Highlights Market Risk
A trader known as “Trump’s insider” has exited a large $311M Bitcoin long position with a reported loss of $3.8M. Despite a reputation for high accuracy and opening the trade ahead of Trump’s signing, the market moved against the position.
The episode underlines a key reality of crypto markets: narratives and perceived insider timing do not remove risk. Even well-known, well-capitalized traders can face losses, reinforcing the importance of discipline and risk management.
Bitcoin is flashing technical signals that often precede significant price action. Bollinger Bands are tightening, a pattern historically associated with upcoming volatility. At the same time, a key whale indicator has emerged, pointing to renewed positioning by large holders.
The previous occurrence of this setup saw Bitcoin rally from $93K to $125K. With market activity remaining relatively calm, underlying pressure appears to be building beneath the surface.
According to Tom Lee, Bitcoin could potentially reach $250,000 in 2026, particularly if the traditional four-year market cycle begins to evolve. Should Bitcoin maintain strength beyond its typical cycle timing, this scenario often encourages broader risk-on market behavior, which has historically been supportive for Ethereum as well.
• Solana ETFs have surpassed $1B in assets under management, with Bitwise’s BSOL leading the group • Vitalik Buterin emphasized that Ethereum was designed around freedom and resilience, rather than pure efficiency • The total crypto market cap has increased by approximately $240B since January 1, now standing at $3.18T • Coinbase shares rose 8% following an upgrade from Goldman Sachs • Morgan Stanley submitted an S-1 filing for a Bitcoin Trust • The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high at 6,944
📊 Golden Cross vs. Death Cross: Insights From Bitcoin’s History
Golden and Death Crosses are moving average signals based on the 50-day and 200-day averages, and they are often misinterpreted as tools for forecasting future price action. In practice, they reflect market sentiment after a trend has already begun.
These signals proved effective in 2020 and 2024 because broader factors such as market structure, trading volume, and macro conditions were aligned. However, they failed in 2021, when selling pressure had largely been exhausted before the signal appeared.
As a result, Golden and Death Crosses are most effective when used alongside market structure, volume analysis, and macro context, rather than in isolation.
More than $250B has already entered the crypto market this year, with the majority of inflows concentrated in Bitcoin ( $BTC ) and Ethereum ( $ETH ).
If total market capitalization can successfully break and hold above $3.5T before the end of January, it may set the stage for a strong altcoin season, as capital begins rotating beyond the two largest assets.
This remains a critical level for the broader market to monitor.