Crypto Degelist

目立つ緑の象の問題に取り組みましょう。ソーシャルメディア上で、魅力的だが危険に満ちた誤った幻想が広がっています：$PEPE が1ドルに達するという考えです。アナリストとして私の仕事は夢を潰すことではなく、数学と市場メカニズムに基づいて現実に grounded することです。今日は現実の検証を行います。ネタバレ：1ドルは数学的に不可能ですが、なぜそうなるのかを理解することが、PEPEが持つ非常に現実的な利益の可能性を把握する鍵です。
冷酷な数学：なぜ1ドルは幻想なのか
騒ぎが無視している数値を検証してみましょう。PEPEの流通量が420.69兆トークンの場合、価格が1ドルに達するためには時価総額が420.69兆ドルに達する必要があります。

2026年の最初の完全な週がビットコインに関して終了しました。そして、爆発的な展開を予期していたあなたは、物足りなさを感じるかもしれません。しかし、静かな調整に見える表面の下には、重要な戦いが進行しています。暗号資産の王者は、重要な心理的水準を下回らずに守り続けていますが、次の上昇局面に必要な力を発揮できるでしょうか？データを詳しく見てみましょう。
過去7日間：90,000ドル以上での地道な取り組み
週は楽観的な気運とともに始まりました。$BTC は先週火曜日（1月6日）に約94,395ドルまで上昇し、11月中旬以来の最高値を記録し、持続的なブレイクアウトの期待を高めました。しかし、上昇は抵抗圧力に直面しました。それ以降は、BTCがサポートとレジスタンスの間を上下する典型的な調整パターンが続き、週末には約91,544ドルで終了しました。

今週末に飛び出した衝撃的なニュースが、世界中の市場を揺るがしている。米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）のジェローム・パウエル議長は、司法省が中央銀行に対し、FRBの建物改修に関する証言についての召喚状を送付したと発表した。これは、彼の証言を巡る刑事告発の危機を示している。珍しい動画声明の中で、パウエル氏はあいまいな表現を避け、これを「前例のない行動」と呼び、FRBの核心的な使命である「政治的圧力から独立した金利設定」を揺るがすための「口実」だと断言した。
対立の核心

Remember the laughter. In the dark days following Terra's historic collapse, talking about a future for its ancestral token, $LUNC was met with ridicule.
Yet here we are in 2026, and the whispers have changed. The question is no longer about survival, but about possibility. For the community that refused to quit, the dream persists, but it's time to separate relentless hope from mathematical reality.
The core thesis for $LUNC has always been elegantly simple: burn supply into scarcity, and price will follow.
The numbers are undeniably impressive on the surface. Since the fall, a staggering 436.64 billion LUNC tokens have been sent to the inferno.
This isn't just grassroots effort; it's institutional commitment.
Terra Form Labs itself has been the lead arsonist, and giants like Binance have contributed billions more through dedicated fee-burn programs.
This creates a powerful, deflationary pressure cooker, with millions of tokens burned daily, often sparking short-term volatility and hope.
However, this is where diamond hands must also wield a calculator.
The mountain of supply is simply colossal. Even after all that heroic effort, over 6.46 trillion LUNC remains in circulation.
The burns, for all their symbolic and psychological power, have reduced the total supply by less than 7%. This leads to the sobering math behind the famous "$1" dream.
To reach that price through deflation alone would require eliminating approximately 99.2% of all tokens—a task that, at current rates, would span decades, not years. The burn engine is vital, but it is a slow drip, not a short-term rocket fuel.
Therefore, the true path to a revaluation lies beyond the burn address. The community's real work in 2026 is building utility.
The successful implementation of technical upgrades like v3.5.0, which improves the chain's interoperability, is a quiet but crucial step.
The recently approved "Market Module," which aims to restore the link between LUNC and its revived stablecoin cousin, USTC, could be the most significant catalyst on the horizon.
It seeks to restore core utility, the very thing the ecosystem lost. This, combined with the undeniable force of an unbreakable community that builds and governs three years after a $60 billion wipeout, forms the fragile blueprint for a comeback.
So, what is a realistic outlook? Chasing the $1 phantom in 2026 is a distraction from credible opportunity. The real battle is for foundational milestones.
A realistic bullish scenario for the year requires several stars to align: the successful deployment of the Market Module to spark developer interest, sustained high-volume burns, and a lift from a broader crypto bull market.
In this case, a move toward $0.0001—a 2.5x from current levels—is a credible target, representing a massive victory. An explosive run toward $0.001 is possible only if every single catalyst fires perfectly.
The verdict is this: $$LUNC s the ultimate high-conviction bet on a community's will against impossible odds. The dream is kept alive by relentless burns, but its future will be determined by rebuilt utility. The diamond hands aren't foolish for believing, but the smartest among them are those who know the exact size of the mountain they are climbing. The journey continues, not on hype, but on the slow, grinding work of reconstruction.

The crypto launch of the week is undeniable: $BREV is on an absolute tear. Fresh off its Token Generation Event (TGE) and mainnet launch, the Brevis token has skyrocketed over 900% from its launch price. But this isn't just a random pump. Brevis sits at the red-hot intersection of Zero-Knowledge (ZK) proofs and Decentralized Physical Infrastructure (DePIN), positioning itself as a critical "ZK coprocessor" for smart contracts across any blockchain. The question everyone is asking: Is this a sustainable infrastructure play or a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event about to correct?
📊 The Jaw-Dropping Technical Snapshot
The numbers are staggering and tell a story of extreme speculative interest:
Price Action: Launched near $0.056, peaked above $0.50, and currently consolidating at lofty levels.Volume Frenzy: 24-hour trading volume hit an astronomical $872 million—that's nearly 8 times its market cap, signaling insane token turnover and pure momentum trading.Sentiment Signal: The RSI is deep in overbought territory (>70), a classic warning sign that the asset is due for a pullback or consolidation in the short term.
🎯 Critical Price Levels to Watch
Immediate Support: $0.40 - $0.42. This is the zone bulls must defend to prevent a deeper correction.Key Resistance: $0.55 - $0.60. A clean break above here could target the next psychological level.Risk Zone: A break below $0.40 could see a swift move toward $0.30.
⚡ The Bull vs. Bear Case: Why It's So Volatile
The Bullish Narrative (Why It Could Go Higher)

Elite Backing: Co-led by Polychain Capital and Binance Labs, with support from HashKey Capital. This is institutional-grade credibility.

Fundamental Utility: As a ZK coprocessor, it solves a real problem—offloading complex computation from blockchains—tapping into the AI and DePIN narratives.

Perfect Launch: Immediate listings on Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken provide unmatched liquidity and access from day one.

The Bearish Risks (Why It Could Correct)

Extreme Speculation: A volume-to-market-cap ratio of 8x is a textbook sign of a frenzy that often precedes sharp, painful corrections.

Future Supply Unlock: Only 250M of 1B $BREV are in circulation. Starting in 2027, tokens for team, investors, and ecosystem will unlock, creating potential sell pressure for years.

Fierce Competition: The ZK infrastructure space is crowded with well-funded rivals. Brevis must execute flawlessly to maintain its lead.

🎲 Bold Price Prediction & Final Verdict
Given the insane volatility, predictions are highly speculative but can be framed by potential market cap moves.
Short-Term (Next 2-4 Weeks): Expect wild swings. A best-case hold of support could lead to a retest of $0.55-$0.60. A loss of support could see a fall toward $0.30-$0.35.2026 Outlook: Success depends on developer adoption. If the network gains real usage, a market cap of $1.5B-$2B (implying a price of **$0.90 - $1.20+) is plausible. Failure to attract builders will see prices languish.
The Bottom Line: $BREV is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward momentum play. It has elite fundamentals and a killer narrative, but is currently priced for perfection amidst a speculative mania. Trade it with extreme caution, tight stop-losses, and the understanding that the most volatile part of its journey may be just beginning.
#brev #brevis #crypto #Altcoin

The tide has turned for Solana. After weeks of grinding consolidation, $SOL has decisively broken and held above the critical $130 resistance level, flipping it into a new support floor. This isn't just a minor bounce; it's a significant shift in market structure that signals buyer control is back. The 24-hour trading volume surged over 35%, confirming the move with real conviction.
Key Technical Levels to Watch Now:
✅ New Support: $130 - $132. This is the line in the sand. Holding here is critical for the bullish thesis.🔨 Immediate Resistance: ~$139. A clean break above this paves the way for the next move.🎯 Ultimate Pivot Point: $140. Analysts highlight this as the level that would confirm a full macro trend reversal from bearish to bullish.🚀 Next Targets: With $140 broken, the path opens toward $150, and potentially the $155 - $172 zone in the medium term.
📈 Bold Price Prediction & The Path Forward
The data suggests the setup is bullish. Momentum indicators like the MACD are positive, and the Awesome Oscillator has flipped green. My analysis points to two key scenarios for SOL :
Base Case (Next 4-6 Weeks): Continued momentum pushes price toward $150 - $155. This aligns with short-term algorithmic forecasts predicting a move to $150.56 by mid-February 2026.Bull Case (2026): A sustained bull market, driven by strong network adoption and a positive crypto macro environment, could see SOL challenge its previous highs. Some analysts even project a run toward $200+ in 2026.
⚠️ A Word of Caution
Always manage your risk. The Fear & Greed Index is still in "Fear" territory (29), and a failure to hold $130 support could see a retest lower toward $117. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
The Bottom Line: $SOL has made its move. The technical breakout is clear, and the next few days are crucial. Watch for a hold above $130 and a breach of $140 for confirmation that the next leg up to $150+ has begun.
#Solana #SOL #Altcoin #priceprediction
What's your target for $SOL ? Bullish or bearish on this breakout? Let me know in the comments! 👇
(Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) before making any investment.)

仮想通貨は単なる投機取引やミームコインに関するものだと考えているなら、あなたは昨日のニュースを見ているだけです。2026年の物語は明確にシフトしました。グレイシャルドのような主要機関はこの時期を「機関投資家の時代の始まり」と呼んでいます。これは、騒ぎのサイクルではなく、実際の実用性、規制の明確化、そしてグローバル金融システムへの深いつながりによって特徴づけられる段階です。『仮想通貨』という物語は、今や『現代の金融インフラ』という物語へと進化しています。
この変革の中心にあるのは、あなたが当然視しているかもしれない1つの資産クラスである：ステーブルコインです。

In the wake of the stunning U.S. operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, global attention is fixed on the world's largest oil reserves. Yet, beneath the geopolitical drama lies a more tantalizing mystery for the crypto world: a potential "shadow reserve" of $BTC worth tens of billions, accumulated by a nation locked out of the global financial system. This hidden hoist doesn't just represent wealth; it's a live-fire test of crypto's role in a fragmented world and a potential catalyst for the next market move.
From Geopolitical Shock to Diplomatic Thaw
The landscape shifted rapidly. Following the military action, the U.S. and Venezuela's new interim government under Delcy Rodríguez have initiated an "exploratory process" to re-establish formal diplomatic ties, severed since 2019. This unexpected diplomatic opening coincides with hard-nosed economic strategy: President Trump announced a plan for U.S. oil companies to invest $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela's crippled energy infrastructure, aiming to unlock vast reserves and exert control over global oil flows.
The immediate market read was clear. Analysts like BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes argued that flooding the market with Venezuelan crude could lower global energy prices. This, in turn, could allow for more aggressive economic stimulus without stoking inflation—a macroeconomic environment historically favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. Following the events, Bitcoin's price surged nearly 5%, adding credence to this thesis.
The "Shadow Reserve": Fact, Fiction, or Geopolitical Weapon?
The most explosive crypto narrative centers on Venezuela's rumored Bitcoin treasury. Isolated by severe U.S. sanctions, the Maduro regime is believed to have turned to cryptocurrencies as a financial lifeboat. Reports suggest a systematic accumulation beginning around 2018, converting proceeds from gold sales and, later, requiring oil payments in stablecoins like USDT, which were then swapped for Bitcoin.
The estimated size of this stash is where speculation runs wild. Some intelligence reports suggest a value between $56 billion and $67 billion, which would place Venezuela among the largest Bitcoin holders globally. Other analyses, based on limited on-chain data, estimate a more conservative 240 $BTC (worth roughly $22 million). The truth is likely complex and obscured; experts suggest any holdings are probably spread across thousands of wallets controlled by various regime officials, making them nearly impossible to track conclusively.
Three Paths for the Crypto Treasure: Seizure, Reserve, or Fire Sale
The fate of these assets is now a multi-billion-dollar question for the crypto market, with three primary scenarios:
U.S. Seizure and Freeze: The most probable outcome, where the U.S. identifies and legally seizes the Bitcoin, locking it in Treasury custody and removing it from circulation.Strategic U.S. Reserve: A more bullish scenario where seized Bitcoin is added to a formal U.S. strategic reserve (a policy Trump has floated), creating a massive, long-term holder.Chaotic Fire Sale: The least likely but most bearish possibility, involving a rapid, disorderly liquidation that could temporarily swamp the market.
Critically, the first two outcomes would constitute a massive supply shock—effectively taking a potential overhang off the market. As analysts note, Germany's sale of 50,000 $BTC in 2024 caused a significant correction; a reserve many times larger being frozen or held by a major power would be structurally bullish.
The Bigger Picture: Crypto as the New Financial Frontline
Beyond the price speculation, the Venezuela crisis validates several core crypto theses. It demonstrates, in real-time, how nations and individuals use Bitcoin and stablecoins to operate outside sanctioned financial networks. It highlights crypto's emerging role as a tool of statecraft and a hedge against geopolitical instability.
This event is a microcosm of the "Dawn of the Institutional Era" in crypto, where digital assets are no longer just speculative toys but integral pieces in global finance and strategy. Whether Venezuela's stash is $22 million or $60 billion, the message is clear: in the modern world, a nation's treasury may now be held not just in vaults of gold, but in encrypted wallets on a decentralized ledger. The market is now watching closely to see who holds the keys.
#crypto #venezuela #Geopolitics  

2026年の爆発的なスタートを経て、$XRP は重要な分岐点に立っています。CNBCが『最も注目される暗号資産取引』と称するように、週間で20〜25％の上昇を記録し、ビットコインやイーサリアムを上回るパフォーマンスを発揮したことで、市場の注目を集め直しました。しかし、上昇のニュースの陰には、技術的判断の迷いと、機関投資家の積み増しと、根強い根本的な疑問との戦いという、より複雑な実態が存在しています。この分析では、過去7日間の動き、注目すべき重要な水準、そして今後の見通しについて解説します。