The market data for February 2026 confirms a period of intense volatility for Bitcoin, characterized by a 40% decline from its late 2025 peak of approximately $126,220. As of today, February 4, 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $77,000–$78,000, showing a modest relief rally after touching a year-to-date low of $74,555 earlier this week. The current sentiment is dominated by "Extreme Fear" (index levels around 24–27), with analysts debating whether this is a "capitulation bottom" or a pause before further drops. Short-Term Support & Resistance (Q1 2026) The immediate battle is centered on the mid-70k range. Technical data points to several critical hurdles: Primary Support ($74,000–$74,500): This has held as the "2026 floor" so far. A breakdown here is widely expected to open the doors to the high $60k range. The "$70,000 Magnet": Prediction markets (like Polymarket) currently show a 62% probability of BTC hitting $70,000 before it returns to $90,000. Immediate Resistance ($80,000–$82,000): Reclaiming the $80k psychological level is seen as the first step toward a "V-shaped" recovery. @Bitcoin #Binance #BTC☀️
Institutional and Bearish Forecasts for 2026 While retail sentiment is shaky, institutional activity remains a significant "counter-weight." Companies like MicroStrategy (Strategy) continue to accumulate even as prices dip below their recent cost basis. Firm/Analyst2026 Low/Base TargetBullish/Year-End TargetRationaleBernstein$60,000 rangeReversal expectedLate-stage correction; "most consequential cycle" incoming.JPMorgan$94,000 (Floor)$150,000+Volatility-adjusted gold model; ETF growth to revive momentum.Fundstrat (S. Farrell)$60,000–$65,000$150,000+Base case retracement for H1 2026; long-term upside remains.Standard CharteredN/A$150,000Price appreciation now depends almost entirely on ETF inflows.Peter BrandtAs low as $25,000N/AExtreme "fractal-based" view if the 2022 collapse repeats. Key Market Drivers Macro Pressure: Rising bond yields, a partial U.S. government shutdown, and hawkish Fed signals (following Kevin Warsh's nomination) are currently weighing on "risk-on" assets. ETF Dynamics: While U.S. spot ETFs saw roughly $1.49 billion in outflows last week, total assets under management remain high, suggesting that long-term holders are not fully exiting. Technical Breakdown: Bitcoin is currently trading below its 50-day ($88,790) and 200-day ($97,547) EMAs, confirming that bears have the upper hand in the immediate trend. #TrumpProCrypto #GoldSilverRebound #VitalikSells #StrategyBTCPurchase $BTC $ETH $BNB