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Bitcoin $BTC trades at $90,605 today (Sunday), January 11, 2026, attempting a modest 0.24% rebound after experiencing five consecutive days of declines. The world's largest cryptocurrency remains trapped in a prolonged consolidation pattern, down approximately 28% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198. While many investors ask why Bitcoin is going down, the answer lies in critical technical breakdowns that point toward significantly lower prices ahead. Potentially $68,000 to $74,000 according to my weekly chart analysis.
In this article, I explain why Bitcoin is falling and why it could drop by another 25%. Check out my technical analysis of the BTC/USDT chart, based on more than a decade of experience as a trader and analyst.
Why Bitcoin Is Falling? Weekly Chart Technical Breakdown
Bitcoin has experienced five consecutive days of declines and during Sunday’s session attempted a modest 0.3% rebound, changing hands at just under $91,000. On the daily chart, we remain in the same consolidation and nothing particularly interesting is happening.

How Bitcoin looks on the daily timeframe. Source: Tradingview.com
For a fresh perspective, I decided to look at a slightly broader interval, namely the weekly chart, which brings interesting observations from a technical analysis point of view.
As I show on the weekly chart, we see exactly the same consolidation pattern and support zone defined by April 2025 lows between $78,000 and $74,000. As a reminder, $74,000 is my bearish target that I have mentioned many times in recent weeks, where I expect reaccumulation after weak hands are shaken out and a return to growth.
However, the weekly chart reveals that this $74,000 zone could significantly expand when looking at local peaks drawn from March to July 2024. According to my analysis, the $68,000 level particularly catches my attention, representing the July 2024 highs, which currently coincides with the 200-week exponential moving average, which price last tested nearly three years ago. Breaking above it was the official start of the uptrend that pushed Bitcoin's price from $23,000 to $123,000.
The fact that we dropped below the 50-week moving average for the first time since October 2023 also gives much to think about and suggests that price may again head toward the longer-term 200-week average I mentioned. This would expand my bearish target nominally by $6,000, meaning Bitcoin could fall 25% from current levels to test the $68,000 zone.

How low can Bitcoin go? We are targeting the 200 WMA. Source: Tradingview.com
BTC Key Technical Levels
Current structure:
Current price: $90,605 (modest Sunday bounce)50-week MA: Broken for first time since October 2023200-day MA: $106,421 (significantly above current price)Year low: $74,437 (April 2025 support)
Downside targets:
Primary target: $74,000 (April 2025 lows, initial reaccumulation zone)Extended target: $68,000 (July 2024 highs + 200-week EMA confluence)Potential decline: 25% from current $90,605 levelsSupport zone expansion: March-July 2024 local peaks create $68K-$78K band
The 200-week exponential moving average represents a critical historical support level. Three years ago, when Bitcoin reclaimed this moving average, it marked the beginning of a massive rally from bear market lows around $23,000 all the way to the October 2025 all-time high of $126,198.
Major corrections typically revisit these long-term moving averages to reset sentiment and create sustainable foundations for the next bull phase.
Crypto Influencers Back $64K-$68K Bitcoin Predictions
My weekly chart analysis showing $68,000-$74,000 downside targets isn't an isolated bearish view. Several prominent crypto influencers and traders have recently published remarkably similar predictions, creating an emerging consensus around major support in the mid-to-high $60,000 range.
James Wynn published a prescient call on December 17, 2025: "$67,000 $BTC . 200 day moving average on the weekly there. Said it since $120k. That's the next major support channel. You have to hit them to have that 'flush' / 'reset'. - Wynn"
$67,000 $BTC

200 day moving average on the weekly there.

Said it since $120k.

That's the next major support channel. You have to hit them to have that 'flush' / 'reset'.
His $67,000 target aligns almost perfectly with my $68,000 extended support zone at the 200-week EMA.
Brannigan Barrett also provided detailed bearish analysis on January 8, 2026, noting current price action weakness: "BTC price action continues with weak efforts to bounce. This is not a market to be long. As I mentioned last year, $68k is likely to be tested. This is the 24' election breakout. Sentiment remains sour and is confirmed by the markets inability to bounce, despite being oversold."
BTC price action continues with weak efforts to bounce. This is not a market to be long. As I mentioned last year. $68k is likely to be tested. This is the 24' election breakout. Sentiment remains sour and is confirmed by the markets inability to bounce-despite being oversold.… pic.twitter.com/6XlKUbWvyp
Barrett's $68,000 target matches my extended support analysis precisely, referencing the 2024 election breakout level that now serves as major historical support. His timeline suggests several more weeks of consolidation before the eventual breakdown toward $68,000.
Perhaps the most detailed bearish roadmap comes from coko.nad, who outlined a multi-stage decline scenario on January 5, 2026: "Now, changed my mind about Bitcoin. I am now expecting $98K - $99K. Then hard crash to $77K. Horizontal and no-vol phase between $77K - $83K. Then, drop to $64K - $66K. Here is 1.5-2 month plan."
Why Bitcoin Can Fall Further? Fundamental Headwinds
Beyond technical analysis, several fundamental factors support the thesis that Bitcoin is going down and has further to decline before bottoming.
Macro Environment Remains Challenging
Despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 175 basis points cumulatively over 2024-2025, bringing the target range to 3.50-3.75%, monetary conditions remain restrictive for risk assets. The dollar has strengthened against major currencies, creating headwinds for dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin. Equity markets show stretched valuations with ongoing concerns about artificial intelligence investment sustainability, factors that typically pressure Bitcoin given its high correlation to risk-on assets.
Market Structure Deterioration
Institutional forecasts showing BTC hitting only $150K in 2026 reflect growing caution among sophisticated market participants. Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies that accumulated massive Bitcoin holdings during 2024-2025 have largely exhausted their buying power as valuations became unsupportive of additional capital raises.
Technical Necessity of Deeper Correction
From a pure technical perspective, Bitcoin's failure to test the 200-week EMA for nearly three years represents an anomaly. Historically, major bull markets experience periodic corrections to long-term moving averages that serve as "trend separators" between bull and bear market conditions.
How Low Can Bitcoin Go? $68K-$74K Target Zone
According to my technical analysis, Bitcoin's downside targets break into two distinct levels:
Primary target: $74,000
Represents April 2025 yearly lows last tested during spring correctionInitial reaccumulation zone where weak hands begin capitulating17.5% decline from current $90,605 levelsFirst major test of whether buyers defend 2025 lows
Extended target: $68,000
July 2024 local highs now serving as supportCoincides with 200-week exponential moving average (untested for three years)Historical significance as launchpad for $23,000-$123,000 rally24.9% decline from current levels (25% round-number correction)Likely triggers maximum capitulation and final flush
As I show on the weekly chart, the $68,000 level represents convergence of multiple technical factors: July 2024 resistance-turned-support, the critical 200-week EMA, and March-July 2024 consolidation peaks. This confluence creates a high-probability zone for trend reversal after capitulation.
What Happens at $68K-$74K Support?
Based on historical precedent and market cycle dynamics, the expected scenario at major support involves:
Phase 1 - Initial test ($74,000): Brief stabilization as some buyers defend April 2025 lows, followed by breakdown as selling pressure overwhelms demandPhase 2 - Acceleration ($74K → $68K): Rapid decline as stop-losses trigger and leveraged positions liquidate, creating panic sellingPhase 3 - Capitulation ($68,000): Maximum fear and weak hand exits at 200-week EMA, creating classic "V-bottom" or extended base formationPhase 4 - Reaccumulation: Institutional buyers and long-term holders accumulate aggressively at attractive valuations, absorbing selling pressurePhase 5 - Recovery: Return to growth as technical structure improves, moving averages reclaim, and momentum shifts bullish
This process typically takes several weeks to months, suggesting Q1 2026 correction followed by Q2 2026 reaccumulation and potential Q3-Q4 2026 return to all-time high territory.
FAQ: Why Bitcoin Is Going Down
Why is Bitcoin going down today?
Bitcoin is declining due to breakdown below the 50-week moving average for the first time since October 2023, weak bounce attempts despite oversold conditions, and technical targeting of the 200-week EMA at $68,000. According to my weekly chart analysis, current consolidation suggests continuation toward $68,000-$74,000 support zone where reaccumulation is expected.
How low can Bitcoin go in 2026?
According to my technical analysis, Bitcoin targets $74,000 (April 2025 lows) with extended support at $68,000 (July 2024 highs + 200-week EMA), representing potential 25% decline from current $90,605 levels. coko.nad predicts even lower targets of $64,000-$66,000 in 1.5-2 month scenario, while James Wynn targets $67,000 and Brannigan Barrett expects $68,000 test.
Will Bitcoin crash to $60,000?
My primary targets are $74,000 and $68,000 based on weekly chart support confluence and 200-week EMA location. coko.nad's $64,000-$66,000 scenario represents deeper extension beyond 200-week EMA but remains within historical correction ranges. Sub-$60,000 would require breakdown of all major 2024 support levels, which seems unlikely based on current technical structure.
When will Bitcoin stop falling?
According to my analysis, significant support and reaccumulation expected at $68,000-$74,000 zone where 200-week EMA and April 2025/July 2024 historical levels converge. Brannigan Barrett suggests "continue consolidation range between 80-94k for a few more weeks" before breakdown, while coko.nad outlines 1.5-2 month timeline to final lows. Expect capitulation and reversal in Q1 2026.
Is this a Bitcoin bear market?
Breaking below 50-week MA (first since October 2023) signals correction phase rather than full bear market. According to my weekly chart analysis, testing 200-week EMA at $68,000 is necessary for trend reset and healthy market structure. Expect reaccumulation at major support before growth resumes, similar to historical patterns where 200-week EMA tests marked bottoms before major rallies.
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