COIN STACK

Ultimamente, il mercato delle criptovalute sembra deludente. Sul grafico a 4 ore, Bitcoin mostra segni ribassisti e, basandosi sui dati passati, c'è un'alta probabilità che possa scendere per riempire il suo gap CME intorno a 88.2k. Inoltre, il tanto atteso disegno di legge sulla struttura del mercato delle criptovalute, che molti credevano avrebbe portato miliardi negli altcoin, è stato nuovamente ritardato. Questo ritardo ha già danneggiato il sentimento, con le azioni di Coinbase e Robinhood che sono scese di circa il 6-7%. Guardando indietro, è anche deludente che invece di un reale progresso, i grandi titoli di un anno fa fossero lanci di meme coin come Trump e Melania. Complessivamente, il mercato sembra bloccato in un ciclo di entusiasmo, ritardi e frustrazione ripetuta.

Molte persone entrano nel crypto senza comprendere la differenza tra trading spot e trading di futures, e questo errore porta spesso a pesanti perdite. Entrambi sono strumenti, ma sono destinati a tipi di utenti molto diversi.
Cos'è il Trading Spot?
Il trading spot significa che acquisti l'attuale asset cripto e lo possiedi. Se acquisti Bitcoin sul mercato spot, rimane nel tuo portafoglio fino a quando non lo vendi. Non c'è scadenza, nessuna liquidazione e nessuna pressione per agire velocemente.
Ad esempio, se hai comprato Bitcoin a $20.000 sul mercato spot, puoi tenerlo anche se il prezzo scende a $15.000 o $10.000. Nulla ti costringe a vendere. Questo rende il trading spot più sicuro e più adatto per principianti e investitori a lungo termine.

La strategia di Michael Saylor sembra complessa, ma in realtà è molto semplice.
In primo luogo, MSTR raccoglie denaro vendendo prodotti a reddito fisso (come obbligazioni). Queste obbligazioni pagano agli investitori un rendimento fisso di circa l'11% all'anno. Ad esempio, se MSTR raccoglie un miliardo di dollari, promette di pagare circa 110 milioni di dollari ogni anno. In 10 anni, il costo totale degli interessi diventa di circa 1,1 miliardi di dollari.
Ora arriva la parte importante.
Invece di tenere quel denaro inattivo, MSTR utilizza i 1 miliardo di dollari per acquistare Bitcoin.
Bitcoin non paga interessi fissi, ma il suo valore cresce nel tempo. Anche supponendo un tasso di crescita conservativo del 15% all'anno, quel miliardo di dollari in Bitcoin può crescere notevolmente grazie agli interessi composti. Dopo 10 anni, quel Bitcoin avrebbe un valore di circa 4 miliardi di dollari.

Not every crypto will benefit from what’s happening next. On October 6, 2025, the crypto market lost nearly $1 trillion, with around $50 billion liquidated. According to Raoul Pal, exchanges had to step in and buy assets they normally wouldn’t, and now those positions are slowly being sold. This is one reason why the market is seeing strong volatility. Long-term data shared by Benjamin Cowen also highlights important yearly trends to keep in mind.
From a broader perspective, not all coins are expected to move in a positive direction. Unfortunately, global geopolitical tensions are rising, which is adding more uncertainty to the markets. We’re seeing increased involvement and pressure from the U.S. in different regions, including Iran, Greenland, and Cuba. These developments are not bullish and usually create fear and instability. During uncertain times like these, markets typically do one of two things: they either move sideways and consolidate, or they trend downward. Because of this, it becomes important to identify key levels and understand where Bitcoin could potentially head next.
Historically, $BTC and other risk-on assets tend to perform poorly during midterm years, especially when the market is transitioning within the four-year cycle from a bull phase to a bear phase. With expectations of more liquidity support and quantitative easing ahead, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may enter a long period of consolidation through 2026. In reality, long consolidation phases can feel worse than sharp price drops, because when prices fall, there is at least volatility to trade. Unfortunately, this means the outlook doesn’t look very strong for most coins in the near term.
When capital flows turn negative, markets usually move into consolidation, which aligns with what we typically see during midterm years. Right now, the market is lacking liquidity, and without enough liquidity, strong price expansion is unlikely. The ISM data still shows economic contraction, and until it shifts back into an expansion phase, it’s hard to expect a broad rally across crypto. Without a growing U.S. economy, most coins will struggle to move higher. On top of that, rising geopolitical tensions over the past year have continued to pressure price action and limit upside.
With so much uncertainty in the market, looking at technical analysis helps provide some direction. The previously mentioned $90K CME gap has now been filled, which confirms a common market behavior. Although many traders doubt CME gaps, historically around 95% of them eventually close due to market psychology, as long as CME does not move to 24/7 trading. There is still another CME gap around 88.1K that may also get filled. If that happens, it would support a bearish continuation setup, likely forming a bear flag. Based on past cycles, price could eventually move toward the 200-day moving average, as this has happened consistently in previous market cycles.
The business cycle shift that usually changes market direction hasn’t happened yet, so prices are still following the traditional four-year cycle. In past cycles, whenever price breaks below key levels, it eventually comes back to test the 200-day moving average. Because of this, a retest of the 200-day MA is likely, whether it happens this month, next month, or even by March. The timing will depend on price action. A strong move above 94.2 could open the door for a fast push higher, while a breakdown below the 84–84.2 range may lead to a deeper drop, possibly into the low 70s.
If price fails to move higher, a drop into the low 70s could happen to collect liquidity from previous price action. Whether the market moves up now or dips first and then recovers will depend mainly on two key levels: 94.2 and 84.2. These levels are important for understanding the next major direction of the market, so they should be closely watched. This wraps up today’s update. The coming week includes a few important news events, especially market reactions to developments from President Trump, which could add further volatility.
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$BTC

There is some important news for people interested in crypto. Former President Trump recently shared some statements that could strongly impact Bitcoin in 2026.
New unemployment data has been released and it is better than expected, meaning fewer people are without jobs. At the same time, inflation data shows prices are rising slowly and are likely below 2%. When unemployment goes down and inflation stays low, it shows the economy is strong and stable. This gives the central bank confidence that the economy is healthy. Because of these conditions, markets like Bitcoin can benefit, as investors expect more supportive economic policies ahead.
The economy looks healthy, which helped Bitcoin rise a little recently. However, there is still an open price gap near $88,200, so it's not very positive about Bitcoin in the short term and expects some weakness. In the long term, though, the situation is important because inflation and employment goals are already being met. Since the economy is stable, the central bank does not need to cut interest rates or print more money right now. Doing that could increase inflation again, which is a risk. Overall, short-term caution remains, but long-term conditions are changing in a meaningful way.
When banks are given more money, people borrow more and start spending, which allows businesses to raise prices and causes inflation. Because of this risk, the central bank prefers to keep things as they are instead of adding more money to the system. However, Trump has a different plan. He needs to refinance about $9.5 trillion in debt within a short time period, mostly between January and June. To do this, the government must issue new bonds, and this situation could push policymakers to change their approach to interest rates and liquidity.
With interest rates around 4%, the U.S. government has to pay hundreds of billions of dollars just in interest, which is a big waste of money. If rates were reduced closer to 1%, the savings would be huge and that money could be used for other important needs. Trump understands this problem and believes interest costs matter a lot. Because of this, he plans to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair soon. The leading choices are Kevin Walsh and Kevin Hassett, and both support lower interest rates and policies that make borrowing cheaper.
While the central bank focuses on its goals, the government still needs to reduce how much it pays in interest. The two possible new Federal Reserve leaders are supportive of crypto and lower interest rates. Trump is pushing his own form of money support by increasing military spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion. He said this extra cost would be covered by tariff income, but so far the money collected is much less than expected. There is also a chance that some of this tariff money may have to be returned if the courts rule the tariffs illegal. If that happens, the government may need to create hundreds of billions of dollars more, which could increase money supply and impact markets like crypto.
The extra money needed will likely be created by printing new money. Around $200 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities may be bought by institutions, which is a form of quantitative easing. This puts fresh cash into banks, increases available capital, and reduces financial stress, especially for smaller banks. If interest rates are also lowered under new leadership at the Federal Reserve, borrowing becomes cheaper. Together, more money in the system and lower rates mean higher liquidity, which can strongly impact markets like crypto.
The government is shifting toward a loose monetary policy that essentially forces "quantitative easing" on the economy. By printing money to fund major projects—like the proposed acquisition of Greenland—and implementing the 2025 tax cuts on tips and general income, the administration is bypassing traditional Federal Reserve controls. These massive liquidity injections, overseen by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, are expected to create an inflationary "tailwind" starting in February. While this may cause a period of market consolidation rather than a severe crash, the full impact of this high-risk liquidity won't be truly visible until 2027.making this year a key time to accumulate.$BTC $BTC
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