GEMINI
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The flow of long held #Bitcoin into the market is losing strength. After a period of heavy distribution, net outflows have eased back from extreme levels, signaling that much of the older supply has already changed hands.
Buyers are gradually absorbing coins from long term holders, reducing the amount of supply sitting above current prices. With this overhang thinning out, overall market pressure appears more balanced.
Buyers are gradually absorbing coins from long term holders, reducing the amount of supply sitting above current prices. With this overhang thinning out, overall market pressure appears more balanced.
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Still Fear 👀
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#Bitcoin is trading in a fragile range between the Short Term Holder Cost Basis near $102.7k and the True Market Mean around $81.3k. Recent on chain data shows weakening demand, cautious derivatives positioning, and overall softening market strength, a setup that looks similar to early 2022. Although price is still holding slightly above the True Market Mean, unrealized and realized losses are rising, and long term holders are spending at elevated levels, adding pressure to the market.
The first important upside level to watch is the 0.75 quantile near $95k, followed by the STH Cost Basis. Until these levels are reclaimed, the True Market Mean remains the most likely support zone and potential bottom, assuming no major macro or liquidity shock hits the market.
The first important upside level to watch is the 0.75 quantile near $95k, followed by the STH Cost Basis. Until these levels are reclaimed, the True Market Mean remains the most likely support zone and potential bottom, assuming no major macro or liquidity shock hits the market.
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Gli acquirenti aggressivi hanno preso il controllo del trading #bitcoin su #bybit con il rapporto acquirenti/ venditori al dettaglio salito a 30.33. Ciò indica una forte pressione acquisti, poiché i partecipanti al mercato privilegiano la velocità rispetto al prezzo per assicurarsi posizioni lunghe. Tale comportamento spesso indica una forte convinzione da parte dei grandi trader.
Quando gli acquisti al dettaglio dominano in modo così marcato, i venditori faticano a spingere il prezzo verso il basso. Tuttavia, estremi di questo tipo possono provocare volatilità. Se il prezzo non riesce a superare il livello precedente, le posizioni lunghe concentrate potrebbero essere rapidamente chiuse. Tenere d'occhio la reazione del prezzo, l'interesse aperto e i tassi di finanziamento aiuterà a confermare se questa forza degli acquisti possa durare.
Quando gli acquisti al dettaglio dominano in modo così marcato, i venditori faticano a spingere il prezzo verso il basso. Tuttavia, estremi di questo tipo possono provocare volatilità. Se il prezzo non riesce a superare il livello precedente, le posizioni lunghe concentrate potrebbero essere rapidamente chiuse. Tenere d'occhio la reazione del prezzo, l'interesse aperto e i tassi di finanziamento aiuterà a confermare se questa forza degli acquisti possa durare.
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#BTC moved from $80K to $90K, and UTxO Loss Supply dropped from 7.5M to 6.1M BTC. This does not mean new money entered the market or that the bottom was heavily bought. The drop happened because of a mark to market effect.
Each #UTXO has a creation price. When BTC trades above that price, the UTxO automatically shifts from loss to profit without any on chain transaction. So around 1.4M BTC moved out of loss on paper only, driven by price recovery, not real buying pressure.
Each #UTXO has a creation price. When BTC trades above that price, the UTxO automatically shifts from loss to profit without any on chain transaction. So around 1.4M BTC moved out of loss on paper only, driven by price recovery, not real buying pressure.
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Negli ultimi 24 ore, il mercato ha visto pesanti liquidazioni con 71.713 trader costretti a uscire dalle loro posizioni. Le perdite totali derivanti dalle liquidazioni ammontavano a 169,51 milioni di dollari. Il colpo più duro è arrivato da un singolo trade #BTCUSD su Hyperliquid, valutato a 2,51 milioni di dollari.
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Hello there !
can I ask you something?
can I ask you something?
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L'indice di Paura e Aggressività #Bitcoin si è spostato da Paura a Paura Estrema 👀
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📈 S&P 500 closes above 6,966 for the first time in history.
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🇺🇸 Fed’s Bostic says inflation is still well above the 2% target and the Fed is ready to act to bring it down.
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At the moment, the VDD Multiple for #Bitcoin remains positioned in the lower band, highlighting a phase of steady accumulation. Long term holders are largely inactive on the selling side, keeping distribution pressure muted.
Rather than showing signs of exhaustion, the market is smoothly absorbing earlier gains. This behavior points to a solid underlying structure, where supply is being taken up gradually and the overall setup stays supportive for further upside if buying interest remains consistent.
Rather than showing signs of exhaustion, the market is smoothly absorbing earlier gains. This behavior points to a solid underlying structure, where supply is being taken up gradually and the overall setup stays supportive for further upside if buying interest remains consistent.
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Since January 2023, #Bitcoin’s on chain transfer volume has been steadily declining and this weakness has continued even as price moves higher, the current rally is not supported by a recovery in real network activity. Instead, the move is largely driven by FOMO, shaped by political backing for Bitcoin in the U.S., the launch of spot ETFs, accumulation by corporate treasuries, and an increasingly bullish media narrative promoted by major KOLs.
Most market participants are not actively transacting but are holding their coins, waiting for higher price levels where selling becomes more attractive. This behavior keeps on chain activity low while pushing prices up through reduced circulating supply, making the rally more narrative driven than fundamentally supported and increasing the risk of heightened volatility once sentiment shifts or profit taking begins.
Most market participants are not actively transacting but are holding their coins, waiting for higher price levels where selling becomes more attractive. This behavior keeps on chain activity low while pushing prices up through reduced circulating supply, making the rally more narrative driven than fundamentally supported and increasing the risk of heightened volatility once sentiment shifts or profit taking begins.
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Still Fear 👀
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#Bitcoin is trading around 89,9K, sitting below the short term holder cost basis at 98,9K, which keeps short term sentiment under pressure. Price is hovering near the Active Investors Mean at 87,7K, a zone that often reflects fair value during consolidation.
The True Market Mean around 81,0K remains an important support level, while the realized price at 56,2K shows that long term holders are still comfortably in profit. Overall, the structure looks more like consolidation than weakness.
The True Market Mean around 81,0K remains an important support level, while the realized price at 56,2K shows that long term holders are still comfortably in profit. Overall, the structure looks more like consolidation than weakness.
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Still Fear 👀
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Catch up on the news over the last 24 hours!
🔥 Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas says "spot bitcoin ETFs are coming into 2026 like a lion", as they recorded $1.2B inflows in just two days.
🚨 Stablecoin issuers generated around $5B in revenue from Ethereum deployments in 2025, per Token Terminal.
🚨 opBNB has completed its Fourier Mainnet hardfork, cutting block time from 500ms to 250ms for faster transaction finality.
🇺🇸 US community banks push to close GENIUS Act "loophole" allowing exchanges to offer stablecoin yields, claiming it undercuts traditional banking.
⚡️ $2.2T banking giant Barclays makes its first stablecoin investment, backing Ubyx.
🔥 $1.3T Morgan Stanley files an S-1 registration for an Ethereum Trust with the SEC.
⚡️ Rumble enables $BTC tipping for streamers via MoonPay wallet integration.
⚡️ Binance releases its 38th Proof of Reserves, user holdings rise to 618K $BTC, 4.17M $ETH, and 38.2B $USDT as of Jan 1.
🇺🇸 Donald Trump says he plans to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to address housing affordability.
🇺🇸 Wyoming becomes the first US state to issue a stablecoin, rolling out $FRNT on Solana.
🔥 S&P 500 futures hit 7,000 for the first time ever.
🚨 Ripple says it has no plans for an IPO, pointing to a strong balance sheet and prioritizing product expansion and acquisitions over going public.
🇺🇸 Trump-backed World Liberty Financial has applied for a national trust bank charter to issue and custody USD1 stablecoins.
🔥 Solana Mobile is set to launch its SKR token on January 21, 2AM UTC.
🚨 Stablecoin issuers generated around $5B in revenue from Ethereum deployments in 2025, per Token Terminal.
🚨 opBNB has completed its Fourier Mainnet hardfork, cutting block time from 500ms to 250ms for faster transaction finality.
🇺🇸 US community banks push to close GENIUS Act "loophole" allowing exchanges to offer stablecoin yields, claiming it undercuts traditional banking.
⚡️ $2.2T banking giant Barclays makes its first stablecoin investment, backing Ubyx.
🔥 $1.3T Morgan Stanley files an S-1 registration for an Ethereum Trust with the SEC.
⚡️ Rumble enables $BTC tipping for streamers via MoonPay wallet integration.
⚡️ Binance releases its 38th Proof of Reserves, user holdings rise to 618K $BTC, 4.17M $ETH, and 38.2B $USDT as of Jan 1.
🇺🇸 Donald Trump says he plans to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to address housing affordability.
🇺🇸 Wyoming becomes the first US state to issue a stablecoin, rolling out $FRNT on Solana.
🔥 S&P 500 futures hit 7,000 for the first time ever.
🚨 Ripple says it has no plans for an IPO, pointing to a strong balance sheet and prioritizing product expansion and acquisitions over going public.
🇺🇸 Trump-backed World Liberty Financial has applied for a national trust bank charter to issue and custody USD1 stablecoins.
🔥 Solana Mobile is set to launch its SKR token on January 21, 2AM UTC.
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🤑 Riot sells $162M worth of Bitcoin as mining hash price drops.
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On chain demand has yet to show real strength, even as the price trades back above $93,000. Blockchain activity and buyer participation remain subdued, the market still lacks strong conviction. For a healthy move toward $100,000, demand needs to recover more decisively through increased accumulation and stronger network usage. Until then, upward moves may struggle to hold.
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