GEMINI

We’re seeing compression again in the Perpetual Market Directional Premium. Long exposure is steadily unwinding.
Leverage is being flushed out while #BTC chops sideways. This phase reflects time capitulation rather than aggressive sell pressure. Positioning is resetting, the market is cooling down, and we’re likely building a base for the next major move.

Dall'inizio del 2024, #gold è aumentato di quasi il 160%, il che ha aumentato la domanda di prodotti legati all'oro nel mercato delle criptovalute. #Binance ha lanciato il trading di futures sull'oro 24/7 il 5 gennaio, e il prodotto ha rapidamente attirato l'attenzione, raggiungendo quasi $35 miliardi di volume totale di scambi.

Il volume più alto in un giorno singolo ha superato i $4 miliardi, mentre la media settimanale si attesta ora intorno ai $4,7 miliardi. L'attività di trading è aumentata anche dopo che l'oro ha subito una forte correzione del 20% in soli due giorni, mostrando un forte interesse da parte degli investitori in cerca di esposizione digitale all'oro.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

With options expiry getting closer, #Bitcoin’s gamma exposure around the current spot price has shifted into negative territory.

Glassnode’s GEX heatmap breaks down dealer positioning across different strike prices, showing where hedging flows might keep price stable and where they could instead increase volatility and push stronger moves.

Il 25 febbraio alle 18:00 UTC, lo stesso schema è riapparso. Il Net Realized P&L smussato ha superato i $5M all'ora mentre il prezzo è salito a $69.4K, ma si è bloccato appena sotto $70K. Le prese di profitto vicino a quel livello continuano a limitare il rialzo e, in questo ambiente di liquidità ridotta, anche una modesta pressione di vendita è sufficiente per ostacolare i tentativi di recupero.

When you zoom out, the long term trend is still clearly positive. The main concern right now is the recent correction, which has pushed short term investors deep into losses. The 1 to 3 month holders have a realized price around $90,000, and with BTC trading near $68,000, they are down roughly 24% on average. Around this realized price, the deviation bands sit at $153,000 on the high end, $126,000 above, $79,000 below and $56,000 at the lower extreme.

These levels often act as reaction zones since this group tends to respond quickly to price moves. In this cycle, #BTC has frequently corrected after reaching the upper extreme band, and from current levels, price still needs to climb further for these short term holders to return to comfortable profits.

Yesterday, Net Taker Volume on the 25HMA jumped to $1.13B per hour, one of the strongest buy imbalances in months. This shows heavy aggressive market buying, meaning traders were actively lifting offers instead of waiting.

It signals strong bullish pressure and high conviction from buyers. If this continues, price can push higher. If it fades, we may see a short pause or pullback.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

LSI is now rolling over and trending lower, which shows that the immediate stress in the market is easing. This shift has created short term relief, allowing price to push upward after moving through the 63K stress zone. Even so, the MA24h remains above 56, signaling that background pressure is still present.

The surface may look stable for now, but the broader structure has not completely normalized. So while buyers have gained temporary control and upward continuation is possible, the overall environment still carries underlying risk...

La mappa di calore GEX completa di Glassnode ora evidenzia un accumulo di gamma negativa intorno e al di sotto del prezzo spot attuale, mentre le barriere di gamma positiva sopra stanno diventando più sottili.

Poiché #BTC sta negoziando in una zona di gamma corta, i flussi di copertura dei dealer possono aumentare la volatilità. Invece di assorbire i movimenti dei prezzi, l'attività di copertura può esercitare pressione nella stessa direzione, rendendo sia i movimenti al rialzo che al ribasso più aggressivi.

La struttura delle #BTC opzioni è cambiata. Attraverso l'intera storia della #GEX heatmap, il gamma negativo si sta espandendo intorno e sotto il livello attuale, mentre la resistenza del gamma positivo sopra si sta assottigliando. Con il prezzo che si trova in una zona di gamma corta, i flussi di copertura dei dealer potrebbero amplificare la volatilità e rendere i movimenti più aggressivi in entrambe le direzioni.

#Bitcoin’s MVRV has cooled off and is now trading close to its long term average, with the previous +1 standard deviation extreme fully reset. Valuations are moving toward levels that have historically provided better risk to reward opportunities, although the market has not yet entered the deeply undervalued zone typically seen near major cycle bottoms.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

During the previous 24 hours, 137,720 traders saw their positions liquidated, pushing the total liquidation amount to $418.80 million. The largest individual liquidation took place on Bitget, involving an #ETHUSDT_UMCBL order valued at $26.10 million.

Mining difficulty didn’t stay low for long. After winter storms temporarily shut down several operations and caused a brief dip, the network has already recalibrated. As miners brought their machines back online and hash rate recovered, the latest adjustment pushed difficulty right back up.

It’s a clear example of how responsive the #Bitcoin network is. External disruptions may slow things down for a moment, but the system quickly adapts and restores balance, keeping block times steady and the chain moving forward.

Market conditions have shifted as the 90D SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio moves below 1. This indicates that loss realization is now dominating over profit taking, which typically reflects weaker sentiment and tighter liquidity. In past cycles, the ratio has remained below 1 for several months before recovering. A sustained move back above this level would signal improving confidence and a healthier flow of capital into the market.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

I costi di prestito overnight tra le banche stanno diminuendo mentre il Tasso Efficace dei Fondi Federali scende. Questo cambiamento di solito segnala che i responsabili politici si stanno muovendo verso condizioni finanziarie più flessibili. Man mano che il finanziamento diventa più economico, la liquidità nel sistema tende a migliorare. Un aumento della liquidità spesso avvantaggia gli asset che rispondono fortemente ai flussi di capitale, inclusi Bitcoin e altri mercati a rischio.

A familiar pattern is forming as the #Binance Buying Power Index returns to previous low levels. This typically signals a temporary cooldown rather than a breakdown, showing that the market is pausing, liquidity is tightening, and aggressive buying has slowed. In past cycles, similar compressions have often been followed by upward moves once demand picks up again, making this setup historically lean more bullish than bearish.

Still Extreme Fear 👀