Boy Lost In Thoughts

Nonostante la debolezza persistente nel mercato del lavoro, l'economia del Regno Unito è pronta per un leggero rialzo della crescita quest'anno, trainata da un rallentamento dell'inflazione e da attesi tagli dei tassi di interesse.
Punti principali evidenziati:
Crescita del PIL prevista: l'economia del Regno Unito è prevista in crescita dell'1,4% nel 2026 (Q4/Q4), in aumento rispetto all'~1% del 2025.
Rallentamento del mercato del lavoro: il tasso di disoccupazione è previsto in aumento fino al 5,3% a marzo 2026 prima di stabilizzarsi man mano che la crescita riprende.
Inflazione e tagli dei tassi: l'inflazione principale è prevista in rallentamento fino al 2,1% nel secondo trimestre 2026, consentendo alla Bank of England di tagliare i tassi tre volte (25 punti base ciascuno) portandoli a un tasso finale del 3%.

Nelle sue prime dichiarazioni dell'anno, il presidente della Fed di New York John Williams ha indicato una posizione paziente sui tassi di interesse, citando una prospettiva economica favorevole. Ha sottolineato che la politica attuale della Federal Reserve è adeguatamente orientata a far tornare l'inflazione al suo obiettivo del 2%, gestendo contemporaneamente un mercato del lavoro in rallentamento. Williams si aspetta una crescita solida e un'inflazione che si attenua gradualmente, rafforzando l'idea che la Fed sia in una fase di stallo dopo i tagli dei tassi dello scorso anno. I suoi commenti arrivano mentre la banca centrale affronta sfide politiche e giuridiche senza precedenti alla sua indipendenza.

Il capo economista di Raymond James, Eugenio J. Alemán, illustra un quadro cautamente ottimista ma complesso per l'economia statunitense nel 2026, con una crescita moderata in un contesto di pressioni politiche e inflazionistiche persistenti.
Punti principali evidenziati:
Proiezione crescita PIL: si prevede una crescita del 2,2% per il 2026, sostenuta da stimoli fiscali e da un investimento continuo nell'IA.
Prospettiva inflazionistica: si prevede che la disinflazione continuerà, ma l'inflazione rimane "tenace" e al di sopra dell'obiettivo della Fed, in parte a causa degli effetti delle tariffe.
Politica della Federal Reserve: con una crescita solida, la Fed ha poco spazio per ridurre i tassi - probabilmente solo una volta nel 2026.

Japan recorded a strong current account surplus of ¥3.67 trillion in November 2025, a 10.0% increase from the same month the previous year.
The primary driver of this surplus was income from overseas investments (Primary Income), which contributed a surplus of ¥3.38 trillion. While the trade balance for goods also showed a significant surplus (¥625 billion), the services balance turned into a slight deficit (-¥44 billion) for the month, a notable shift from its surplus a year earlier.
🔍 Key Insights
Strong Current Account Surge: Japan's current account surplus grew to ¥3.674 trillion in November 2025, a 10% increase from a year earlier. This indicates the nation's overall international earnings significantly outweighed its payments.Driven by Investment Returns, Not Just Trade: The largest contributor was the primary income surplus of ¥3.381 trillion, primarily from returns on overseas investments. This was more crucial than the trade surplus, showing Japan's strength as a global investor.Services Sector Shift: The services balance turned negative (-¥44.1 billion) after being positive a year ago. A detailed look shows a smaller travel surplus and larger deficits in areas like "Other Business Services" and "Telecommunications, computer, and information services."Active Foreign Investment: The financial account recorded a net inflow of ¥4.117 trillion, meaning more foreign capital entered Japan. This was heavily driven by substantial direct investment by Japanese companies abroad (¥3.066 trillion in assets).
📌 Detailed Breakdowns (Bullet Points)
Here are the key details from the supplementary tables:
Services Account (November 2025 vs. November 2024)
Transport: Deficit improved slightly to ¥-51.5 billion (from ¥-67.0 billion).Travel: Surplus decreased to ¥452.4 billion (from ¥558.0 billion).Other Services: Deficit widened significantly to ¥-445.0 billion (from ¥-223.2 billion).Charges for Intellectual Property: Strong surplus of ¥584.8 billion.Financial Services: Surplus of ¥49.8 billion.Major deficits were in Insurance & Pension (¥-282.4B), Telecom/Computer Info (¥-263.8B), and Other Business Services (¥-444.1B).
Primary Income Account (Driven by Investment Returns)
The total surplus was ¥3.3809 trillion.Investment Income accounted for nearly all of it (¥3.3875 trillion surplus).Direct Investment Income: ¥1.6674 trillion surplus (from dividends and reinvested earnings).Portfolio Investment Income: ¥1.5910 trillion surplus (mainly from bond interest).
Secondary Income & Capital Account
Secondary Income: A deficit of ¥288.0 billion, smaller than last year's ¥422.4 billion deficit, mainly from transfers by corporations and households.Capital Account: A minor deficit of ¥27.2 billion.
Financial Account (Capital Flows)
Direct Investment: Net outflow of ¥2.2305 trillion (Japanese investments abroad far exceeded foreign investments in Japan).Portfolio Investment: Net inflow of ¥443.4 billion (foreign investment in Japanese securities exceeded Japan's overseas security purchases).Overall: The account showed a net financial inflow of ¥4.1173 trillion into Japan.
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$LUMIA

$HYPER
$MTL

I dati della Banca del Giappone mostrano che la crescita dei prestiti bancari giapponesi ha accelerato al 4,4% annuo a dicembre 2025. Le banche principali hanno guidato con una crescita del 5,7%, mentre le banche straniere hanno registrato un'espansione esplosiva del 29,7% nei prestiti in yen. Al contrario, la crescita complessiva dei depositi è rimasta debole al 0,9%, con le banche Shinkin che hanno registrato una contrazione dello 0,4%.
📈 Prestiti e sconti (attività di finanziamento)
Crescita complessiva: la crescita totale dei prestiti ha accelerato al 4,4% a dicembre 2025, in aumento rispetto al 4,1% di novembre. Per il trimestre ottobre-dicembre, la crescita ha registrato una media del 4,2%, superiore al 3,5% del trimestre luglio-settembre.

Federal Reserve President John C. Williams struck an optimistic yet cautious tone in his New Year’s remarks, highlighting the U.S. economy’s resilience and a favorable path toward stable growth and lower inflation.
Major Points:
Economic Resilience: Despite trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, the U.S. and global economies have shown strength and are positioned for solid growth in 2026.Inflation Expected to Peak Soon: Inflation is likely to reach a high (around 2.75%–3%) in the first half of 2026 due to tariffs, before declining toward the Fed’s 2% goal by 2027. Underlying inflation trends remain favorable.Tariff Impact Clearer: Recent analysis shows tariffs have largely been absorbed by U.S. businesses and consumers, adding about 0.5 percentage points to inflation. Most effects have yet to fully materialize.Labor Market Cooling Gradually: The jobs market has softened, with unemployment ending 2025 at 4.4%, but without signs of severe deterioration. It is expected to stabilize and then strengthen in coming years.Monetary Policy Well-Positioned: Last year’s rate cuts have moved policy from restrictive toward neutral, balancing inflation and employment risks. The Fed remains data-dependent but is poised to support continued growth and disinflation.Balance Sheet Adjustments Complete: The Fed has ended balance sheet runoff and will maintain ample reserves, using tools like standing repo operations to manage liquidity pressures—a technical step, not a policy shift.Anchored Expectations: Long-term inflation expectations remain stable, a key factor in sustaining price stability.
Bottom Line:
The U.S. economy enters 2026 on steady footing, with the Fed expecting above-trend growth, a manageable inflation peak, and a patient, data-guided approach to interest rates. Resilience and stability are the watchwords—but uncertainty remains.
$XVG
$DUSK

Fitch e S&P hanno avvertito che l'indipendenza della Federal Reserve è un pilastro critico che sostiene il rating di credito sovrano degli Stati Uniti. Affermano che una pressione politica prolungata—evidenziata dai recenti attacchi contro il presidente della Fed Powell—potrebbe passare da un rischio di mercato a una minaccia diretta alla solvibilità del paese, al ruolo della moneta e alla forza delle istituzioni.
Punti principali riformulati:
Indipendenza della banca centrale = Forza del credito degli Stati Uniti
Fitch Ratings ha dichiarato che l'indipendenza della Federal Reserve è un "pilastro critico" che sostiene il rating di credito sovrano AA+ degli Stati Uniti.

Speranze per la casa
L'ultimo sondaggio Westpac-Melbourne Institute rivela che i consumatori australiani stanno affrontando il 2026 con un atteggiamento cauto e pessimista, principalmente a causa dei cambiamenti nelle aspettative sui tassi di interesse. Sebbene il sentiment si mantenga al di sopra dei minimi estremi degli ultimi anni, crescono le preoccupazioni per il futuro prossimo.
📉 Risultati chiave sul sentimento dei consumatori (gennaio 2026)
Il sentimento complessivo dei consumatori è sceso a 92,9, con un calo del -1,7% rispetto al mese precedente. L'indice si trova ora ulteriormente nella zona pessimistica (un punteggio inferiore a 100).

L'ultimo rapporto sull'inflazione per il 2025 arriva in un momento cruciale, pronto a tagliare attraverso mesi di dati economici confusi. Mercati e responsabili politici considerano questa pubblicazione dell'Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo (CPI) una sentenza definitiva che modellerà tutta la prospettiva sui tassi di interesse e sull'economia per il 2026.
Punti principali evidenziati:
Importanza fondamentale: Non si tratta semplicemente di un aggiornamento mensile. È considerato il rapporto conclusivo per un anno caotico, atteso per chiarire se l'inflazione si sta riducendo in modo sostenibile verso l'obiettivo del 2% della Fed o se persiste ostinatamente.

$ZKP

Binance Pool is launching a special reward program—the Miner’s League—designed exclusively for new Bitcoin miners. From January 13 to March 31, 2026, participants can earn daily points based on their mining hashrate and redeem them for USDC rewards after the promotion ends.
Major Points Highlighted:
Eligibility: Only new miners—users who have never mined BTC on Binance Pool before January 13, 2026—can participate.How it works:Complete KYC and create a mining account.Mine BTC during the promotion period.Earn 1 point per 1 PH/s of daily average hashrate.Rewards:Points are converted to USDC after the promotion ends.1 point = 0.5 USDC.Minimum requirement: Maintain an average hashrate of at least 0.25 PH/s throughout the promotion to qualify.Reward example: A miner with 3 PH/s over 78 days earns 234 points → 117 USDC.Terms apply: Rewards will be distributed within 14 working days after the promotion ends. Binance reserves the right to amend terms or disqualify users for suspicious activity.
Ready to start earning?
If you’re new to BTC mining on Binance Pool, now’s your chance to earn extra rewards in USDC while you mine. Join the Miner’s League today and track your progress on the leaderboard!
Note: Not available in all regions. Standard mining fees apply. Please review full terms and conditions before participating.
$WAL

The EUR/USD pair has snapped back into focus after a surprise selloff in the U.S. dollar, triggered by news that the Department of Justice is investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell over past testimony. This political shock raises concerns about Federal Reserve independence and, in turn, the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. However, EUR/USD bulls still face stiff resistance amid a struggling European economy—setting up a major technical and fundamental showdown around key price levels and tomorrow’s U.S. CPI report.
Major Points Highlighted:
U.S. Dollar Selloff Driven by Political NewsReports of a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell sparked a sharp USD selloff.Raises concerns about Fed independence and could undermine the dollar’s reserve currency status.Source of Probe UncertainInitially seen as potentially orchestrated by former President Trump, new information suggests the inquiry may have originated from FHFA Director Bill Pulte.Analyst doubts Trump would willingly sacrifice Powell as a “scapegoat” for economic weakness ahead of a new Fed Chair nomination in May.EUR/USD Rally Faces Fundamental & Technical HurdlesThe Euro is the largest component of the DXY basket, so USD weakness supports EUR/USD.But Europe’s weak economy has kept the pair range-bound for over six months, with strong resistance between 1.1686–1.1748 (Fibonacci zone).CPI Report Could Decide Next MoveTuesday’s U.S. inflation data is critical: a hot print would limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates, regardless of leadership.Could also create divergence between Fed policy and Treasury rates—key for growth objectives.Key Levels to WatchSupport: 1.1656–1.1669 (Oct/Nov swing highs), then 1.1616 (Dec low).Resistance: 1.1686 (Fibonacci), 1.1717, and 1.1748.A breakout above resistance could signal bullish momentum, while a hold suggests sellers remain in control.
Bottom Line: While political drama has given the Euro a boost, its sustained rally hinges on overcoming both technical resistance and Europe’s economic weakness—with tomorrow’s U.S. CPI likely to set the near-term direction for EUR/USD.
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$ADA

Il segretario del Tesoro Scott Bessent ha avvertito urgentemente il presidente Trump che l'indagine federale senza precedenti sul presidente della Federal Reserve Jerome Powell sta destabilizzando i mercati e potrebbe danneggiare l'economia, secondo un rapporto di Axios.
Punti principali evidenziati:
Turbolenza dei mercati: Dopo la notizia dell'indagine, il dollaro è calato mentre i rendimenti obbligazionari e l'oro sono saliti, segnalando un'ansia immediata degli investitori.
Contrasto interno: Bessent, visibilmente frustrato, ha detto a Trump che l'indagine rischia di distruggere la fiducia economica e ha complicato il passaggio del comando alla Fed.

Uno scontro pubblico tra il presidente Trump e il presidente della Federal Reserve Jerome Powell si è intensificato, coinvolgendo ora un'indagine penale sulle dichiarazioni di Powell davanti al Congresso. Gli esperti avvertono che questo confronto rischia di minare la credibilità della Fed, un pilastro della stabilità finanziaria statunitense. Le principali preoccupazioni includono:
Inflazione non ancorata: l'erosione dell'indipendenza della Fed potrebbe invertire i progressi compiuti sull'inflazione, spingendo le aspettative verso l'alto.
Volatilità dei mercati: gli azionari potrebbero registrare un calo mentre gli investitori scontano un rischio politico ed economico maggiore.

Quick Takeaway:
Silver’s breakout to fresh records is backed by multiple bullish chart patterns, completed corrections, and clear support levels—paving the way for further gains toward key Fibonacci targets.
Major Points :
Record High Achieved: Silver hit a new all-time high of $86.27 on Monday, confirming strong bullish momentum.Key Breakouts Triggered Rally: The surge followed a bull pennant pattern breakout on the daily chart and a breakout above a rising channel from early December.Correction Over, Upturn Renewed: The recent pullback ended near the 38.2% Fibonacci support, signaling renewed buying strength and trend continuation.Support Levels Identified: Near-term support is at $80.31, with the 10-day moving average acting as dynamic trend support.Next Price Targets: Fibonacci extensions point toward $87.98 (200% extension) and potentially $99.00 (223.6% extension) as next major resistance areas.Long-Term Bullish Structure: October’s initial record breakout above $49.81 laid the foundation, with Monday's rally reinforcing the long-term uptrend.
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$XAG
$PAXG

A major upheaval at Zcash, with its development team's mass departure, has triggered a dramatic shift in the privacy cryptocurrency market. Capital is rapidly flowing out of ZEC and into its larger rival, Monero (XMR), which has rocketed over 40% in value. This positions XMR as the new leader and a prime momentum play for cautious investors. Technically, XMR's explosive move has driven it into overbought territory, suggesting a potential short-term pullback. However, if it can maintain support around $470, analysts project a path toward a $700 price target. The situation underscores how project governance and team stability are becoming critical factors for investor confidence in crypto.
Major Points:
Power Shift: Zcash's entire 25-person development team has resigned due to a governance dispute, creating a leadership vacuum in the privacy coin sector.Capital Rotation: Following the news, Monero (XMR) surged over 40% in a week, while Zcash (ZEC) fell nearly 19%, indicating a major shift of investor interest from ZEC to XMR.Market Positioning: With overall market sentiment still cautious, Monero is emerging as the favored "momentum trade" within the resilient privacy token niche.Key Price Level: Analysts identify $470 as a critical support level for XMR. Holding above it could fuel a further rally toward $700 (a potential 49% gain).Context & Risks: Both networks have faced challenges—Zcash with its uncertain future and Monero with a past 51% attack—highlighting the sector's volatility even amid bullish trends.
$XMR
$SOL

Precious metals skyrocketed after the Department of Justice launched an investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, marking a severe escalation in political pressure on the central bank's independence. While gold hit new records and silver led the charge with massive gains, the author warns that the market may have already absorbed the shock. He speculates that with political tensions potentially at their peak, a de-escalation could be next, which might cause the rally in metals and miners to stall and reverse. The key signal to watch will be silver's relative strength during any future downturn.
Major Points:
A Sharp Rise in Precious Metals: Following a DOJ subpoena to the Federal Reserve regarding Chair Jerome Powell's testimony, gold surged 3% to a record high above $4,600, silver jumped over 8%, and mining stocks rose over 4%.Trigger: A Political Attack on the Fed: The move is tied to escalating pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve’s independence, including public insults, a draft firing letter, the dismissal of a Fed governor, and now a Department of Justice criminal investigation.Silver is the Outperformer: Silver’s significant surge suggests it is currently outperforming other precious metals. The author argues that its true breakout potential will be confirmed if it holds up better than gold and miners during the next meaningful market decline.Miners Approach a Critical Test: The GDXJ (junior mining ETF) is nearing its all-time high. However, the author notes that buyers from the 2011 peak are only just breaking even in nominal terms, implying they remain at a loss when adjusted for inflation.Warning of a Potential Top: The author questions whether this rally is sustainable, suggesting the market may have already priced in the "worst-case scenario." He predicts the extreme political pressure could stabilize or de-escalate, potentially causing precious metals and miners to form a price top imminently.A Staggering "What If" for Silver: If the rally does not reverse soon, the analysis suggests silver could theoretically skyrocket to around $120 before forming a medium-term top.

$XAG
$XAU
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Il dollaro statunitense sta arretrando in modo marcato dopo un fallito breakout, proprio come previsto dall'analisi tecnica. Nel frattempo, oro e argento stanno avanzando rapidamente verso nuovi massimi. Questo non è caos di mercato—è una rotazione disciplinata e guidata dal momentum. Il breakout dell'oro è stato confermato, lasciando i rialzisti saldamente in controllo con una chiara strada verso obiettivi più elevati. Anche l'argento sta accelerando verso l'alto. Il tema generale è quello di continuità: il trend al ribasso del dollaro e il robusto trend rialzista dei metalli preziosi rimangono fermamente intatti.