oxydo11

Dear Mati raised a well-noticed question, thanks for the pass, legend!
When they buy, it’s not just “more spot demand.” It’s a capital markets loop: issue stock via ATM, sometimes issue convertibles or preferreds, then turn that capital into $BTC
Their latest SEC update shows this flow on one page: they sold shares under the ATM and used the proceeds to buy 1,142 BTC, taking total holdings to 714,644 BTC as of Feb 8, 2026.
My thoughts on the impact and what happens when Strategy becomes a seller
It probably won’t look like a crash candle
A rational seller that size doesn’t just hit “sell.” They’d use OTC blocks, time-weighted execution, and often hedge with futures to drip out exposure without broadcasting intent. The tape can look calm while positioning quietly shifts.
The first place you feel it is derivatives, not spot
The “tell” is basis and funding. If a huge natural buyer turns into a source of supply or even just stops absorbing dips, the market’s balance changes: futures basis compresses, funding softens, and options skew can flip as hedgers pay up for downside. Spot is the headline; derivatives are the plumbing.
The bigger shock is the flywheel reversing
The true systemic punch is psychological and reflexive, the equity premium that helps them raise capital to buy BTC can compress fast if investors think the treasury strategy is no longer one way. That’s how you go from “persistent bid” to “bid disappears.” This is why “they sold” matters more than “how much they sold.”
“Why would they sell” is everything
Selling to “take profit” breaks their whole story, so the realistic triggers are boring but powerful: liquidity management, refinancing choices or protecting obligations. They’ve been building reserves and reported significant cash as of year-end, which lowers forced-sale risk but also shows they’re actively managing the balance sheet.
Accounting is a pressure amplifier, not a trigger
Under the newer crypto accounting model, big BTC drawdowns hit reported net income directly. That doesn’t force liquidation, but it can change incentives, optics and how investors price their risk.

In extremes, price isn’t “discovering fundamentals.” It’s hunting margin.
When the market is this fearful and the liquidation ladder is stacked, the game becomes simple where is the next forced flow below current price from trapped longs or above it from crowded shorts.
That’s why I’m accumulating spot into stress, keeping stables productive and only scaling alts when $BTC trades in extreme fear.
The index tells you how people feel. The liquidation map tells you where they break
Which side do you think gets squeezed next?