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JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst expectations on January 13, 2026, with adjusted earnings per share of $5.23 versus the $5.00 estimate. The bank’s trading division capitalized on volatile markets in the final quarter of 2025, with markets revenue climbing 17% year-over-year.

Despite the earnings beat and full-year 2025 net income reaching a record $57 billion, JPMorgan shares fell 2.64% to $315.93 as of 9:53 AM EST on the day of the announcement, down from the previous close of $324.46.

Market Volatility Lifts Trading Revenue in Q4

JPMorgan’s fourth-quarter results demonstrated the bank’s ability to capitalize on market turbulence, with total revenue reaching $46.8 billion on a managed basis, up 7% year-over-year. The standout performance came from the Markets division, where revenue surged 17%, driven by a remarkable 40% jump in Equity Markets revenue, particularly in Prime brokerage services. Fixed Income Markets contributed with a 7% increase, benefiting from strong performance in Securitized Products, Rates, and Currencies & Emerging Markets.

CEO Jamie Dimon emphasized the resilience of the U.S. economy in his statement, noting that while labor markets have softened, conditions don’t appear to be worsening. The bank opened 1.7 million net new checking accounts and 10.4 million new credit card accounts during 2025, demonstrating continued franchise growth. However, Dimon also cautioned that markets may be underappreciating potential risks, including complex geopolitical conditions, sticky inflation, and elevated asset prices.

The positive results were partially offset by a $2.2 billion credit reserve established for the forward purchase commitment of the Apple credit card portfolio from Goldman Sachs. This one-time charge reduced reported net income to $13.0 billion ($4.63 per share) for the quarter, though the underlying performance remained strong. Average loans increased 9% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter, while average deposits grew 6% year-over-year.

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Investors Focus on Valuation and Credit Risks

Despite beating earnings expectations, JPMorgan shares traded down to $315.93, representing a 2.64% decline from the previous close of $324.46. The muted market reaction came after an exceptional 2025 performance, during which the stock surged 34.93% for the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 19.67% gain. Trading volume reached approximately 1.98 million shares by mid-morning, below the average volume of 8.83 million, suggesting cautious investor sentiment.

Market analysts attributed the stock’s weakness to high expectations following the strong 2025 run-up, with the bank’s valuation reaching a trailing P/E ratio of 16.00 and a market capitalization of $887.8 billion. David Wagner of Aptus Capital Advisors noted that “the bar for perfection is set pretty high” after such a strong year. The stock traded within a day’s range of $321.11 to $326.86, with the 52-week range spanning from $202.16 to $337.25.

Investors appeared focused on several concerns beyond the strong quarterly results, including the potential impact of President Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates, Investment Banking fees declining 5% year-over-year, and questions about sustainability of trading revenues. The bank maintained its fortress balance sheet with a CET1 capital ratio of 14.5% under the Standardized approach and $1.5 trillion in cash and marketable securities, positioning it well for future challenges despite near-term stock price volatility.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) stock fell 2.01% to $28.31 as of 10:23 AM EST on Monday, January 12, 2026, as Paramount Skydance Corporation intensified its hostile takeover campaign. The entertainment giant faces mounting pressure after Paramount announced plans to nominate its own slate of directors to WBD’s board and filed a lawsuit in Delaware Chancery Court seeking critical financial disclosures.

The escalating battle comes as WBD shareholders weigh competing offers—Paramount’s $30 per share all-cash proposal versus the announced Netflix merger valued at $27.75 per share. With the advance notice window for WBD’s 2026 annual meeting opening in three weeks, investors are bracing for what could become one of Hollywood’s most contentious corporate battles.

Paramount Takes Aggressive Action in Pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery

Paramount Skydance has launched a multi-pronged offensive to advance its $30 per share all-cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, signaling its determination to derail the Netflix transaction announced on December 5, 2025. In a letter to WBD shareholders dated January 12, 2026, Paramount CEO David Ellison outlined the company’s strategy, which includes nominating a slate of directors for election at WBD’s 2026 annual meeting who would, according to their fiduciary duties, engage with Paramount’s superior offer.

Additionally, Paramount plans to propose an amendment to WBD’s bylaws requiring shareholder approval for any separation of Global Networks, a key component of the Netflix deal.

The most significant development is Paramount’s lawsuit filed in Delaware Chancery Court seeking to compel WBD to provide basic financial information that shareholders need to make an informed decision. Paramount argues that WBD has failed to disclose how it valued the Global Networks stub equity, how the purchase price reduction mechanism for debt works in the Netflix transaction, or the basis for its “risk adjustment” of Paramount’s cash offer.

This legal action follows Delaware law precedent requiring boards to provide adequate disclosure when making investment recommendations to shareholders. Paramount emphasized it does not undertake these actions lightly but remains committed to constructive discussions with WBD’s board to reach an agreement in shareholders’ best interests.

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WBD Shares Slide as Takeover Uncertainty Weighs on Investors

Warner Bros. Discovery stock opened at $28.47 and traded in a range of $28.40 to $28.68 during the morning session on January 12, 2026, before settling at $28.31, down $0.58 or 2.01% from the previous close of $28.89.

The stock has experienced significant volatility amid the competing acquisition offers, with a 52-week range of $7.52 to $30.00 reflecting the dramatic turnaround in investor sentiment. With a market capitalization of $70.62 billion and an enterprise value of $100.85 billion, WBD carries substantial debt that factors into the valuation debate between the two suitors.

Despite the impressive 193.61% one-year return through January 12, 2026, analyst sentiment remains mixed, with price targets ranging from $20.00 to $35.00 and an average target of $27.25, slightly below the current trading price. The company’s trailing P/E ratio of 152.03 reflects minimal profitability, with diluted EPS of just $0.19 and a profit margin of 1.28%.

Trading volume of approximately 5.98 million shares was well below the average of 44.9 million, suggesting many investors are waiting for clarity on the takeover situation. The competing offers have created uncertainty about WBD’s strategic direction, particularly regarding the fate of its Global Networks division, which Paramount values at zero equity while Netflix’s transaction includes it as spun-off equity to shareholders.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE: DAL) recently announced its financial results for the December quarter and full year 2025. The airline reported a strong financial performance, with earnings per share (EPS) surpassing expectations. However, the company fell short of its revenue projections.

Q4 Earnings Beat Offsets Slight Revenue Shortfall

Delta Air Lines reported an adjusted EPS of $1.55 for the December quarter, surpassing the anticipated $1.52. This achievement highlights the airline’s robust financial management and operational efficiency. Despite facing challenges in the aviation sector, Delta managed to exceed profit expectations, showcasing its ability to adapt and thrive in a competitive environment.

However, the airline’s revenue for the quarter fell short of expectations. Delta generated $14.61 billion in operating revenue, slightly below the expected $14.72 billion. This shortfall was attributed to a government shutdown that impacted domestic operations, as disclosed by the company earlier in December. Despite this, Delta’s diversified revenue streams, including premium products and loyalty programs, continued to drive growth, with a 7% increase over the previous year.

Delta’s overall financial performance for the December quarter was marked by an operating income of $1.5 billion, with an operating margin of 10.1%. The airline’s ability to maintain a double-digit operating margin amidst a challenging economic landscape underscores its strong position in the industry. This performance is further supported by Delta’s strategic investments and cost management initiatives, which have helped sustain its competitive edge.

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Delta Targets Strong Earnings Growth Heading Into 2026

Looking ahead, Delta Air Lines has set ambitious growth targets for 2026, with expectations of a 20% year-over-year increase in earnings. The airline’s guidance for the March quarter 2026 includes a revenue growth outlook of 5% to 7% over the prior year. This growth is anticipated to be driven by strong consumer and corporate demand, as well as Delta’s continued focus on expanding its premium offerings and enhancing customer experiences.

Delta’s financial guidance for 2026 reflects its commitment to margin expansion and operational excellence. The company expects to achieve an operating margin of 4.5% to 6% in the first quarter of 2026, with projected EPS ranging from $0.50 to $0.90. Delta’s strategic initiatives, including investments in fleet modernization and the expansion of its international network, are expected to support these growth objectives.

In addition to its financial targets, Delta is focused on maintaining its leadership position in the airline industry by investing in sustainability and customer service initiatives. The airline has announced plans to increase its use of sustainable aviation fuel and enhance its customer service offerings, including the introduction of AI-powered support tools. These efforts are designed to strengthen Delta’s brand and enhance its market competitiveness as it navigates the evolving landscape of the aviation industry.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Revvity, Inc. (NYSE:RVTY) shares jumped significantly in premarket trading on January 13, 2026, following the company’s announcement that it expects to exceed its fourth quarter 2025 guidance. The medical equipment and life sciences company disclosed preliminary results showing Q4 revenue of approximately $772 million, representing 6% reported growth and 4% organic growth year-over-year. The stock was trading at $112.30 in premarket, up $8.37 or 8.05% from the previous close of $103.89 as of 6:03 AM EST.

Revenue Outlook Surpasses Estimates

The Waltham, Massachusetts-based company announced Monday that its fourth quarter revenue outlook of approximately $772 million exceeded Wall Street estimates of $760.3 million. The 6% reported growth and 4% organic growth compared to the same period in 2024 demonstrates renewed momentum in the life sciences and diagnostics sector.

This performance continues Revvity’s trend of steady expansion, with the company having posted 3.37% growth over the last twelve months.

For the full year 2025, Revvity projects revenue of approximately $2.855 billion, reflecting 4% reported growth and 3% organic growth year-over-year. This full-year figure also surpassed analyst estimates of $2.84 billion, reinforcing investor confidence.

The company’s preliminary results indicate strong demand for contract research and diagnostics services across its pharmaceutical, biotech, diagnostic labs, academia, and government customer base spanning more than 160 countries.

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Full-Year Earnings Outlook Raised

In addition to the revenue beat, Revvity indicated that its full-year adjusted earnings per share will exceed the upper end of its previous guidance range of $4.90-$5.00, which was provided on October 27, 2025. While analysts had forecast fiscal year 2025 EPS at $5.06, the company’s updated outlook suggests it will surpass even these projections.

This marks a significant achievement for the diagnostics and research company, which currently trades with a P/E ratio of 53.04 and maintains a market capitalization of $11.8 billion.

The company plans to release complete fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results before market open on Monday, February 2, 2026, followed by a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET. President and CEO Prahlad Singh is also scheduled to present at the 44th annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on January 13, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. PT.

With approximately 11,000 employees and a 56-year track record of consecutive dividend payments, Revvity continues to position itself as a stable player in the health sciences solutions market.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

After securing a partnership with Samsung in early 2024 for integration of Gemini Pro and Imagen 2, Google crossed another milestone on Sunday. This time, Google’s partner is none other than the largest retail chain Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT).At the National Retail Federation’s Big Show (NRF ’26), ending on Tuesday, both Google CEO Sundar Pichai and incoming Walmart CEO John Furner announced Gemini’s integration to discover products at Walmart. This includes Sam’s Club, the company’s response to Costco’s warehouse business model.

“The transition from traditional web or app search to agent-led commerce represents the next great evolution in retail. We aren’t just watching the shift, we are driving it.”

John Furner, incoming Walmart CEO (as of February 1st)

The question is, what are the broader implications of this partnership?

The Protocolization of Commerce

Gemini’s integration is not that surprising. Mid-October 2025, Walmart partnered with OpenAI to enable “AI-first shopping”, making it possible to complete purchases within ChatGPT through Instant Checkout.

This time, Walmart leverages Google’s latest Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), launched on Sunday. Fitting into the existing agentic frameworks – Agent2Agent (A2A), Agent Payments Protocol (AP2) and Model Context Protocol (MCP) – UCP standardizes Alphabet’s agentic commerce from discovery and buying to post-purchase support through Google Pay or PayPal.

Whether shopping is done on Shopify, Etsy or Walmart, UCP makes it possible to have AI agents check availability, pricing and product details seamlessly.

In practice, this means Gemini will auto-include Walmart and Sam’s Club products whenever it is relevant to users’ query. In other words, just as people are increasingly discovering internet content via Google’s AI Overview, product discovery is now being abstracted away from traditional search and marketplaces.

This is a natural evolution of the AI era. Given the interactive nature of chat bots, and their more granular focus on users’ needs, commerce is shifting from searching to being suggested. Likewise, instead of relying on visibility through SEO or ad expenditure, companies are now relying on protocol-level inclusion.

For Walmart, this means further entrenchment as a consumer staple. For Alphabet/Google, this means extension from information discovery into transaction orchestration. In addition to regulating what users see, which we previously dubbed Control-as-a-Service (CaaS), Google is becoming intent fulfiller.

Speaking of fulfilling intent, Walmart and Alphabet are also moving to compete with Amazon in the logistics arena.

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Drone Delivery Expands, but Progress Isn’t Linear

Also on Sunday, Walmart and Alphabet announced an expansion of Wing’s drone delivery service to 150 more stores, bringing total coverage of 270 Walmart stores after the expansion. As with other automated delivery services like Serve Robotics (NASDAQ: SERV), the coverage is mainly focused on metropolitan areas with high population density, such as Houston, Orlando, Tampa, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Cincinnati and Miami.

Wing is Alphabet’s drone delivery subsidiary, gaining funding from the company’s “Other Bets” segment. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) granted Wing a Part 135 certification in 2019, first of its kind for Package Delivery by Drone.

Unlike ground-based Serve, Wing has to worry less about interception within high urban crime environments, owing to drones’ dual-propulsion fixed-wing design that is capable of carrying up to 5 pounds (2.3kg) within 6 miles (9.6km).

Wing’s drone capability is similar to Amazon’s Prime Air service, using MK30 drones, mainly limited to parts of Texas and Michigan. After a two-month suspension of Prime Air in early 2025, Amazon continued coverage expansion, with the latest being in Darlington, Northeast England.

However, linear progress should not be expected everywhere, as evidenced by Amazon’s permanent cancellation of Prime Air in Italy, in late 2025. Initially, Amazon set a goal of global 500 million drone deliveries annually by 2030, which is now highly unlikely as it lags behind Wing.

The Bottom Line

Google search has been consistently maintaining 90% global market share. Equally so, Google’s Android has the dominant 71% mobile OS market share, with only Apple’s iOS in the game at 28%.

The Gemini AI model is Alphabet’s latest domination of defaults with 1.5 billion monthly AI Overview interactions and 650 million monthly active app users, as of Q3 2025 earnings call.

As Gemini processed 7 billion tokens per minute in that quarter, Alphabet/Google has increasingly deeper traction into user intent, behavior and transactional readiness across the consumer stack. Consequently, the latest Walmart partnership is a logical extension of Google’s control over defaults.

It is then no surprise that Alphabet (GOOGL) recently joined Nvidia as a $4 trillion company. According to the Wall Street Journal’s consensus, the average GOOGL price target is now $342.13, still above the current price of $327.22 per share. With a similar wide moat, Walmart (WMT) stock’s average price target is $124.35 against its current price of $118.55 per share.

That said, with expectations already elevated and moats well recognized, the risk-reward profile suggests timing discipline matters more with stock market corrections inevitably ahead.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

At the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, Nvidia showcased advances across three main categories: gaming & graphics, autonomous vehicles and AI & data center. Previously, we covered how Nvidia rose to the top with its irreversible AI lock-in, as the company’s position now appears to be further entrenched with the latest Vera Rubin platform. This time, we examine Nvidia’s efforts to make driverless cars a reality. And how does this push compare with autonomous advances in China?

Nvidia’s End-to-End Control of the AV Stack

Just as Nvidia provides a full AI stack for data center deployment, the same is true for the autonomous driving race. And in the same way Nvidia is reliant on TSMC fabs to produce its designed chips, other companies, such as Alphabet’s Waymo and Tesla, are increasingly reliant on Nvidia as the key supplier of self-driving components.

Up to the latest CES 2026 that ended on Friday, Nvidia developed the following autonomous driving pillars:

Nvidia DRIVE AGX Hyperion Platform – Providing automakers with production-ready and safety-certified sensor & compute architecture. From cameras to lidar, these pre-qualified components lower automakers’ costs

Nvidia DRIVE AGX Thor Compute – As an upgrade from Orin, Thor uses Blackwell GPU architecture with a generative AI engine, that is 4-8x more compute performant. Thor unifies infotainment, cockpit function and autonomous driving into a single Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model for L4 autonomy.

Nvidia Halos Safety System – Collaborating with partners like Bosch, Wayve, Omnivision, Continental, ANAB and others, Halos is Nvidia’s full-stack safety framework spanning chip design through deployment, including an accredited inspection lab and a certified evaluation program.

Nvidia Omniverse – A set of libraries that make it possible to simulate conditions as a digital twin of the physical world, effectively validating self-driving approaches to training. Given the billions of edge cases that could possibly exist, omniverse lets automakers account for them within physics-accurate virtual cities that run vehicles, sensors, pedestrians, weather, traffic and other factors.

In short, Nvidia is pursuing Google’s approach that worked so well to proliferate Android, but at a deeper infrastructure layer. As Google standardized APIs and tooling for OEMs like Samsung to differentiate themselves, Android won the mobile OS game, presently at around 71% market share.

Equally so, Nvidia already became the default AI substrate that standardizes simulation, training and deployment for autonomous vehicles (AVs). And not only is there a full software stack with Omniverse/DRIVE/CUDA, but also a hardware stack that perfectly complements software and certification.

Nvidia’s entrenchment runs much deeper, however, because validating autonomy from scratch would be prohibitively costly. Once in this ecosystem, switching out would be irrational. Moreover, no other single company provides such a comprehensive suite of services. The latest AV announcement from CES 2026 only confirms this trajectory.

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Nvidia Addresses the AI Black Box Problem

So far, Nvidia has provided GPUs for training, Omniverse for simulation, DRIVE for inference and safety tooling for validation. Although already impressive, this stack is missing an edge. At CES 2026, Nvidia announced the open source Alpamayo model to address it.

First, what is the underlying problem for autonomous driving?

When people use large language models (LLMs), they may come away with the impression they are engaging with reasoning entities. However, beneath that layer of illusion (addressed by Apple) is a probabilistic machine learning model that calculates the likelihood of every possible next word in the dictionary. The next word is selected based on patterns during training.

LLMs are only partly deterministic in the sense they can build up output based on internet searches or when running a coding problem. In other words, if AI encounters a problem not sufficiently represented in training data, such as driving in novel environmental conditions, it typically confabulates an answer.

Even if perceiving degraded objects, humans can spot subtle cues to correctly identify them regardless. In contrast, AI may detect misaligned pixel patterns for what should constitute a “stop” sign and misinterpret it entirely.

In other words, not knowing what a stop sign actually is, as humans do, constitutes a “Black Box” problem for AI. So far, brute-force approach has been used primarily to address it, demanding ever-increasing compute costs and data center buildup.

The next step in solving AI’s Black Box problem, for the purpose of autonomous driving, is Nvidia’s new Alpamayo family of AI models, tools and datasets. As a large vision-language-action (VLA) model, Alpamayo 1 not only reacts to patterns but also provides chain-of-causation reasoning for every action made.

Together with open source AlpaSim and Physical AI Open Datasets, automakers have more tools than ever to make self-driving as safe and robust as possible.

“Alpamayo creates exciting new opportunities for the industry to accelerate physical AI, improve transparency and increase safe level 4 deployments.”

Sarfraz Maredia, head of autonomous mobility and delivery at Uber

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called the Alpamayo launch “the ChatGPT moment for physical AI”. However, unlike OpenAI that faces many competitors, it is safe to say that Nvidia is in a superior position moving forward as the software/hardware infrastructure stack.

Can China Threaten Nvidia’s AI Stack?

According to December’s Counterpoint data for Q3 2025, Chinese Geely Holding Group is the world’s dominant EV supplier, at 61% market share. Chinese BYD Auto is at 16%, leaving Tesla with a 13% global EV market share.

Interestingly, Alphabet’s Waymo is using Zeekr EV platform, as one of the subsidiaries within the Geely Holding Group. Previously, we came to the conclusion that Tesla is more likely to win the robotaxi race owing to a more unified approach and control of platforms.

Nonetheless, it is clear that China mastered the economy of scale, further boosted by not expending energy on racial strife which is plaguing the West. Case in point, investors should take into account urban crime rates when considering exposure to companies like Serve Robotics (SERV).

Lacking such social fragmentation, it is fair to say that China is more focused and streamlined. By 2024, over 60% of new cars sold on China’s mainland already featured some level of self-driving capability.

Despite export controls on AI chips, China also built its autonomous industry on Nvidia. However, the purported geopolitical animosity is making China’s autonomous sector more diversified, while elaborate workarounds have to be taken to acquire more powerful AI chips like Blackwell.

Altogether, China’s full-stack AI providers come from the following companies:

Baidu provides high-definition maps, algorithms and in-car operating system DuerOS, featuring both AI conversational capabilities and broader self-driving unification. Baidu tightly collaborates with Geely, Chery and GAC to build up its Apollo Go robotaxi fleet. By mid-2025, Baidu deployed over 1,000 robotaxis, making it slightly ahead of both Waymo and Tesla.

On the hardware side, Huawei is working to drive China out of Nvidia’s ecosystem with Ascend AI processors and Autonomous Driving System (ADS), which is a stand-in for Tesla’s FSD. On top of this, Huawei developed the Balong 5000 5G chipset for V2X communications and LiDAR systems. Huawei’s answer to Nvidia frameworks is open source MindSpore, but it is likely to be China-bound.

Of other notable companies, Pony.AI and WeRide focus on full software stacks for level 4 autonomous rollout for both passenger and cargo transit. Complementing them is Horizon Robotics with its proprietary NPU (Neural Network Processor), as well as Hesai Technology and RoboSense for LiDAR sensors.

Although more diversified, China’s autonomous ecosystem tightly collaborates at all levels. This is likely an artifact of the nation’s political class being above its merchant class, as evidenced by Alibaba founder Jack Ma’s prolonged absence from the public spotlight.

When it comes to long-term scaling, Chinese ADS is similar to Waymo in that it relies on lidar and pre-mapping. Accordingly, most reports show Tesla’s FSD (vision-only) approach is better at handling diverse scenarios, while Huawei ADS is better suited at localized urban environments covered by high-precision mapping and denser localized bandwidth.

Consequently, this would make Tesla better suited globally, as we concluded previously.

The Bottom Line

In conclusion, while Huawei’s Ascend chips are comparable to Nvidia’s older H100 chips, China is still catching up to Blackwell, as Nvidia is already moving beyond with Vera Rubin. On top of this hardware gap, Nvidia’s CUDA platform has over two decades of developer loyalty and optimization.

With the launch of open source Alpamayo, equally open source MindSpore from Huawei is unlikely to make a big dent even within Chinese-owned AI firms. Altogether, this makes Nvidia’s hardware and software moats substantial and hardened.

Given that the robotaxi and self-driving economy is just starting to ramp up, it is likely that Nvidia will see valuations far beyond $5 trillion by 2030.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

The post How Nvidia is Tightening its Grip on the Autonomous Vehicle Stack appeared first on Tokenist.

Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Oil prices surged to near four-and-a-half-month highs as escalating Middle East tensions and President Trump’s ambiguous statements about potential US military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict sent shockwaves through global energy markets.

WTI crude jumped 1.69% to $76.41 per barrel while Brent crude climbed 1.29% to $77.69, reflecting growing concerns over supply disruptions in the world’s most critical oil-producing region. The uncertainty has prompted major investment banks to warn of significant price spikes, with Goldman Sachs estimating a $10 per barrel geopolitical premium and Barclays warning of potential prices exceeding $100 if the conflict escalates further.

Geopolitical Risk Premium Drives Market Volatility

Goldman Sachs analysts have calculated that geopolitical tensions could add approximately $10 per barrel to Brent crude prices from current mid-$70s levels, though the bank acknowledges oil could exceed $90 if Iranian supply faces disruption.

The investment bank pointed to the ongoing attacks by Yemeni Houthis on vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a stark example of Middle Eastern oil export vulnerability. These supply route disruptions have already demonstrated how quickly regional conflicts can impact global energy security.

President Trump’s cryptic statements regarding potential US military action have further amplified market uncertainty. When pressed about joining Israel’s bombing campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump told reporters, “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.” This deliberate ambiguity has created additional volatility as traders struggle to assess the likelihood of direct US involvement. The prospect of American military intervention represents a significant escalation that could trigger broader regional conflict and severe supply disruptions.

Goldman Sachs’ base-case scenario previously assumed Brent crude would average $60 per barrel in the final quarter without supply disruptions. However, this optimistic outlook appears increasingly unrealistic given the evolving geopolitical landscape and Trump’s apparent willingness to consider military action against Iran’s nuclear program.

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Oil Supply Disruption Risks and Market Response

Barclays has issued even more dire warnings about potential price movements, suggesting crude could surge above $100 per barrel if Middle East hostilities intensify significantly.

The bank specifically noted that Brent could reach $85 per barrel if just half of Iran’s oil exports were disrupted. Iran currently exports over 2 million barrels of crude daily, with nearly all shipments destined for China, making any supply interruption globally significant.

The oil market’s response has been swift and decisive, with energy commodities leading broader commodity gains amid the geopolitical uncertainty. Natural gas prices also climbed 0.53% to $4.010, while heating oil surged an impressive 4.19% to $2.639, reflecting broader energy sector strength. These price movements demonstrate how quickly geopolitical events can translate into tangible market impacts across the entire energy complex.

Despite the recent gains, oil prices retreated slightly as traders await clearer signals about US intentions and the ultimate scope of potential military action. Market participants remain highly sensitive to any developments that could either escalate or de-escalate the current crisis, with many adopting wait-and-see approaches while positioning for potential supply shocks.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Nike (NYSE: NKE) is approaching its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report on June 26, 2025, with the options market signaling heightened volatility expectations as the athletic apparel giant navigates significant headwinds.

Trading at $59.51 as of June 19, the stock has declined 20.43% year-to-date and faces a challenging consumer environment, intense competition from emerging brands like On Running and Hoka, and potential tariff pressures. The at-the-money June 27th $60 strike straddle is priced at approximately $5.70, representing 9.5% of the current stock price and suggesting options traders anticipate substantial post-earnings movement.

Nike’s Earnings Outlook: Expect a Challenging Quarter Ahead

Nike has guided investors to expect a “mid-teens” revenue decline for Q4, likely 13-15%, which is significantly worse than analyst expectations of an 11.4% drop to $11.07 billion.

This guidance reflects persistent challenges across key segments, with the company’s Q3 2025 results showing revenue of $11.3 billion, down 9% year-over-year. The decline was broad-based, with Nike Direct falling 12% and Wholesale dropping 7%, highlighting weakness across both digital and traditional retail channels.

Alternative data metrics paint a concerning picture for the upcoming quarter. Bloomberg Second Measure Observed Sales data declined 14.95% year-over-year through May 31st, significantly worse than the industry average decline of 7.9%. The company faces pressure in China, where sales declined 17% in Q3, representing a significant drag due to economic slowdown and job security concerns.

CEO Elliott Hill, who recently returned to execute the “Win Now” turnaround strategy, is focusing on innovation, wholesale partnerships, and brand repositioning. However, early progress may not be sufficient to offset macroeconomic headwinds and competitive pressures from brands like On Running and Hoka, which are gaining market share with innovative products in Nike’s traditional running category stronghold.

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Nike’s Stock Performance and Options Activity Signal Big Move Expected

Nike’s stock performance has been deeply concerning for investors, with the shares down 35.87% over the past year and 41.86% over three years, dramatically underperforming the S&P 500’s gains of 9% and 62.75% respectively.

The stock currently trades with a market capitalization of $87.84 billion and a trailing P/E ratio of 19.77, though the forward P/E of 28.49 suggests earnings pressure ahead. Key financial metrics show a profit margin of 9.43% and return on equity of 31.93%, but these figures face pressure from inventory markdowns and margin compression.

The options market is pricing in significantly more volatility than Nike’s historical post-earnings moves. Over the past decade, Nike has experienced an average earnings-related stock price movement of approximately 6% in the week following quarterly results. However, the current at-the-money straddle suggests traders expect a 9.5% move, indicating heightened uncertainty about the company’s ability to navigate current challenges.

Analyst sentiment remains mixed, with price targets ranging from a low of $40 to a high of $120, and an average target of $72.67 representing 22% upside from current levels. The wide range reflects uncertainty about the timeline and success of Nike’s turnaround efforts under Elliott Hill’s leadership. With earnings scheduled for June 26 after market close, the consensus EPS forecast stands at $0.11, dramatically lower than the $1.01 reported in the same quarter last year, highlighting the magnitude of Nike’s current challenges.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Unsurprisingly, it appears that OpenAI’s relationship with Microsoft is nearing exhaustion. According to the Wall Street Journal report on Monday, OpenAI is exploring a legal avenue out of its exclusive contract with Microsoft. Specifically, by seeking a federal regulatory review for potential antitrust law violations.

If such an antitrust complaint were to be deployed, it would serve as a nuclear option to terminate the Microsoft-OpenAI relationship.

However, a federal decision in that direction would be in contrast to the UK’s decision favoring Microsoft. In March 2025, the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) decided that Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI “does not qualify for investigation under the merger provisions of the Enterprise Act 2002.”

If this is the likely outcome of an antitrust investigation in the US as well, it may be the case that OpenAI is seeking to revise the terms of the agreement with Microsoft. Specifically, for Microsoft to allow OpenAI to transition into a public benefit corporation from its existing nonprofit status.

The Information previously reported that OpenAI is willing to give Microsoft a 33% stake in this new restructured entity, while foregoing rights to future profits. Additionally, Microsoft would no longer hold exclusive rights to OpenAI’s models on Azure.OpenAI’s evolving relationships with Microsoft and other companies suggest a growing drive for diversification and independence.

Evolving Entanglement: Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle

After OpenAI’s ChatGPT pushed the AI into the public spotlight, Microsoft was the first Big Tech company to go all in. But even before the AI hype ramped up, Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI in 2019, followed by another round of funding in March 2021, and the largest commitment of $10 billion in January 2023.

In September 2024, Microsoft disclosed that total OpenAI investments accounted for $13 billion, with Microsoft getting 20% of OpenAI’s revenue. The arrangement has been mutually beneficial, as Microsoft offered ready-to-go Azure cloud infrastructure and seamless AI integration into a wide range of legacy software.

In November 2023, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella noted that if OpenAI were to disappear, Microsoft would own all of the organization’s resources.

However, the exclusivity slowly started to shift out of Microsoft’s favor. This first became apparent in June 2024 when OpenAI inked a deal with Oracle for its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), while continuing the partnership with Microsoft.

In January 2025, the strategic relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI officially changed from the existing exclusive access to OpenAI’s IP through 2030. Under that arrangement, OpenAI API (application programming interface) is exclusive to Azure, as OpenAI rolls out its latest models.

Further, Microsoft’s cloud infrastructure would support all OpenAI products, including LLM training. By introducing the right of first refusal (ROFR), Microsoft enabled OpenAI to “build additional capacity, primarily for research and training of models.”

The January 2025 agreement opened the door for OpenAI’s compute capacity outside Microsoft. This expansion is likely within Oracle. Shortly after President Trump was inaugurated, Larry Ellison presented the Stargate Project at the White House, together with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son.

From the entanglement with Oracle, Microsoft’s cloud infrastructure competitor, it was clear back then that OpenAI is not likely to settle for being under Microsoft’s umbrella and its Copilot AI suite. As recently as this month, OpenAI also made a deal with Alphabet’s Google Cloud Platform, although it directly competes with Google’s Gemini model.

At the same time, Microsoft is diversifying its AI stake as well.

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Microsoft’s Road Ahead without OpenAI

While OpenAI sent a strong signal through WSJ that the relationship with Microsoft needs to change, Microsoft was not taken aback. In late May, the Big Tech giant opened up its Azure cloud infrastructure for Elon Musk’s xAI which is developing Grok models.

Microsoft further emphasized that it supports “an open, diverse AI ecosystem, rather than relying on a single model provider.” This is a clear play on the company’s strength to serve as an agnostic cloud provider.

Ending April for fiscal Q3 2025, Microsoft reported 21% year-over-year growth of its Intelligent Cloud division to $26.8 billion. Of the Big Three hyperscalers – Amazon (AWS), Microsoft (Azure), Alphabet (GCP) – Microsoft holds 22% global cloud market share. This is significantly above Google’s 12% and Oracle’s 3% but under Amazon’s 29% share as the dominant cloud provider.

In addition to Grok, in the new landscape of AI agents, Microsoft is also expanding Azure’s AI Foundry to Anthropic. Interestingly, both Google and Amazon poured billions into Anthropic, showing that Microsoft is willing to collaborate even with AI companies backed by its biggest cloud rivals in order to strengthen Azure’s position in the broader AI infrastructure race.

On top of this diversification, Microsoft has plenty of resources and human capital to launch its own model. Namely, the small language model (SML) Phi-4 with its 14 billion parameter range. In late 2024, Phi-4 gained top math scores against its LLM rivals.

Ultimately, Microsoft could end up integrating different AI models based on their most performant niches. But for end users, only robust results would matter, not the name of the AI model under the hood.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

The U.S. Senate made cryptocurrency history on Tuesday, passing the GENIUS Act by a decisive 68-30 vote, marking the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins.

The landmark legislation triggered significant market reactions, with Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) surging 10.57% to $280.67 and Circle Internet Group (NASDAQ: CRCL) experiencing an extraordinary 18.08% jump to $176.12.

This legislative victory represents a milestone for the crypto industry, which invested approximately $250 million in the 2024 election cycle to secure what is now considered the most pro-crypto Congress in U.S. history. The passage signals a potential paradigm shift in digital payments and creates new opportunities for major financial institutions, fintech companies, and even traditional retailers to enter the stablecoin market.

The GENIUS Act: A Regulatory Breakthrough for Stablecoins

The GENIUS Act, formally known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, establishes comprehensive federal guardrails for dollar-pegged stablecoins, including requirements for full reserve backing, monthly audits, and anti-money laundering compliance.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to real-world assets, with approximately 99% of all stablecoins tethered to the U.S. dollar, offering instant settlement and lower transaction fees while directly challenging traditional payment systems. The legislation grants sweeping authority to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who recently projected that the U.S. stablecoin market could grow nearly eightfold to over $2 trillion in the coming years.

The bill opens doors to a broader range of stablecoin issuers, including banks, fintech companies, and major retailers looking to launch their own digital currencies or integrate them into existing payment systems.

However, the GENIUS Act includes restrictions preventing non-financial large tech companies from directly issuing stablecoins unless they establish partnerships with regulated financial entities, a provision designed to address monopoly concerns. Deutsche Bank research indicates that stablecoin transactions reached $28 trillion last year, surpassing the combined transaction volume of Mastercard and Visa, highlighting the growing significance of this digital payment method.

The legislation faced significant political hurdles, initially bleeding Democratic support when an Abu Dhabi-backed firm announced plans to use $2 billion in stablecoin from Trump-linked World Liberty Financial to invest in crypto exchange Binance.

Despite criticism from Democrats including Senator Elizabeth Warren, who argued the bill inadequately addresses conflict-of-interest concerns related to President Trump’s cryptocurrency ventures, 18 Democrats ultimately supported the measure.

Senator Cynthia Lummis noted the unexpected difficulty of the legislative process, stating “I had no idea how hard this was going to be,” while Senator Bill Hagerty described it as “murder to get them there” regarding Democratic support.

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Market Response: Crypto Stocks Capitalize on Legislative Victory

Coinbase Global (COIN) closed at $280.67, representing a substantial 10.57% gain, with the stock showing strong momentum following the Senate vote. The cryptocurrency exchange, with a market capitalization of $71.475 billion, has demonstrated impressive year-to-date returns of 13.02% and one-year returns of 18.93%. Coinbase’s strong financial metrics include a profit margin of 22.03% and revenue of $6.67 billion over the trailing twelve months, positioning the company well to benefit from increased regulatory clarity and mainstream stablecoin adoption.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) experienced an even more dramatic surge, jumping 18.08% to $176.12, reflecting investor enthusiasm for the stablecoin issuer’s prospects under the new regulatory framework. Circle’s market capitalization reached $42.756 billion, with the company showing remarkable year-to-date returns of 468.68%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 2.14% gain over the same period. As a leading stablecoin company with revenue of $1.89 billion and a profit margin of 9.09%, Circle stands to benefit directly from the GENIUS Act’s creation of a regulated pathway for stablecoin issuance and the potential influx of new market participants.

The market enthusiasm reflects broader industry trends, with companies like Shopify already implementing USDC-powered payments through Coinbase and Stripe, while Bank of America’s CEO recently indicated the bank is exploring stablecoin issuance opportunities.

Industry giants including Amazon and Walmart are reportedly developing stablecoin-style payment offerings, suggesting that traditional payment networks may need to adapt to this evolving digital landscape.

JPMorgan Chase has taken a different approach, launching JPMD, a deposit token on Coinbase’s Base blockchain for institutional clients, demonstrating how traditional financial institutions are positioning themselves in the emerging stablecoin ecosystem.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL) has emerged as a standout performer in the electronics manufacturing sector, with shares surging nearly 9% in a single trading session following exceptional third-quarter 2025 results.

The contract electronics manufacturer has delivered impressive returns, posting a remarkable 42.48% year-to-date gain and an outstanding 62.65% one-year return, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s modest 2.11% and 9.46% respective gains.

Trading at $204.83 with a market capitalization of $21.987 billion, Jabil has positioned itself as a critical beneficiary of the artificial intelligence revolution and cloud computing expansion.

Factor 1: AI and Data Center Infrastructure Boom Drives Revenue Growth

The most significant catalyst behind Jabil’s recent stock surge is the company’s strategic positioning in the artificial intelligence and data center infrastructure markets. Third-quarter fiscal 2025 revenue jumped an impressive 16% year-over-year to $7.83 billion, substantially beating analyst estimates of $7.06 billion.

This robust growth stems directly from what CEO Mike Dastoor described as “accelerating AI-driven demand” in the company’s intelligent infrastructure segment.

The proliferation of AI technology across industries has created unprecedented demand for data centers capable of supporting vast computing requirements and complex AI workloads.

Companies rushing to implement AI solutions in their operations have dramatically increased their need for sophisticated data center infrastructure, positioning Jabil perfectly to capitalize on this trend. The manufacturer’s expertise in automation, robotics, and process optimization has made it an essential partner for organizations building AI-capable computing infrastructure.

This positioning as a critical supplier in the AI ecosystem has transformed Jabil from a traditional electronics manufacturer into a key enabler of the artificial intelligence revolution, driving both revenue growth and investor confidence.

The company’s intelligent infrastructure segment has become what management calls “a critical growth engine,” with demand showing no signs of slowing.

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Factor 2: Strategic $500 Million U.S. Manufacturing Expansion

Jabil’s announcement of a substantial $500 million investment in U.S. manufacturing expansion represents the second major factor propelling the stock higher.

This strategic initiative, focused on the Southeastern United States, specifically targets cloud and AI data center infrastructure customers over the next several years. The investment will drive development of new large-scale manufacturing capabilities, capital expenditures, and workforce development initiatives, with the new facility expected to be operational by mid-2026.

This expansion demonstrates management’s confidence in sustained demand growth and positions the company to capture an even larger share of the expanding AI infrastructure market.

The timing of this investment aligns perfectly with broader trends toward reshoring manufacturing capabilities and reducing supply chain vulnerabilities. By expanding its U.S. footprint, Jabil strengthens its competitive position with domestic customers while reducing geopolitical risks associated with overseas manufacturing.

The company already operates 30 facilities across the United States, leveraging established strengths in automation and process optimization, making this expansion a natural evolution of its existing capabilities rather than a risky venture into uncharted territory.

This strategic expansion also complements Jabil’s recent acquisition of Mikros Technologies, a New Hampshire-based leader in liquid cooling and thermal management solutions.

The acquisition enhances Jabil’s capabilities in serving AI data centers, energy storage systems, and semiconductor testing markets. Together, these initiatives create a comprehensive strategy for capturing growth in high-value, high-margin segments of the electronics manufacturing market, providing investors with confidence in the company’s long-term growth trajectory.

Factor 3: Exceptional Financial Performance and Raised Guidance

The third driving factor behind Jabil’s stock surge is the company’s exceptional financial execution and optimistic forward guidance. Third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.55 significantly exceeded analyst expectations of $2.31, representing a robust 21% increase in core net income to $279 million. This strong bottom-line performance demonstrates management’s ability to convert revenue growth into profitable results, a critical factor for sustained stock appreciation. The company’s profit margin of 2.02% and impressive return on equity of 32.39% highlight efficient capital allocation and operational excellence.

Management’s raised full-year guidance provides additional fuel for investor optimism. The company now expects fiscal 2025 revenue of $29 billion, up from the previous forecast of $27.9 billion, while raising adjusted profit per share guidance to $9.33 from $8.95.

This upward revision reflects management’s confidence in sustained demand across key markets and their ability to execute on growth opportunities. The guidance increase, combined with the strong third-quarter results, validates the investment thesis that Jabil is successfully capitalizing on structural shifts in technology infrastructure.

The company’s financial strength is further evidenced by its healthy balance sheet, featuring $1.52 billion in total cash and strong free cash flow generation of $1.41 billion.

This financial flexibility provides the resources necessary to fund the ambitious expansion plans while maintaining operational stability. With analyst price targets ranging from $155 to $230 and an average target of $205.26 closely aligned with current trading levels, the market appears to be efficiently pricing in the company’s improved fundamentals and growth prospects.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

In all sectors, it is exceedingly important to have a force multiplier to get ahead of the competition or to maintain hegemony. This is why there has been a concerted push for AI through public-private partnerships (PPPs), from Larry Ellison’s $500-billion Stargate Project to the $600-billion commitment in Saudi Arabia.

And this is why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the U.S. has to “win in AI and quantum” or “everything else doesn’t matter” at the Milken Institute in early May. For warfare purposes, AI is suitable for a wide range of roles: coordination between autonomous vehicles, missile guidance and tracking, image and video analysis, intercepting and interpreting signals, running wargame simulations, monitoring social media, supply chain optimization, threat detection, automated defence and target acquisition.

But governments can only maintain and expand their power through public-private partnerships, as companies deliver the needed expertise and resources. These companies are rapidly emerging as the top players in the AI-warfare arena.

Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL)

The aforementioned Larry Ellison built up Oracle since the late 1970s into a global Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS), and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) company, with Ellison serving as CTO and executive chairman.

The company’s revenue largely comes from subscription fees for these cloud services, alongside software license updates, consulting and hardware sales. By offering integrated solutions for data analytics and cloud management needs, Oracle services both mid-sized businesses and large multinationals.

However, the overarching drive for Oracle lies in technology-driven governance. This has been demonstrated in Ellison’s major contributions to Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI), the world’s largest and most influential NGO with strong focus on harmonized digital records, and AI to leverage the insight from those records.

Larry Ellison himself noted that AI-powered governance is key to having citizens on their “best behavior”. In addition to the Stargate Project, as the necessary data center infrastructure in collaboration with OpenAI and SoftBank, the company recently announced the Oracle Defense Ecosystem initiative.

This should be understood as another stack in building up future AI-powered governance through Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), which is already in wide use by defense and government contractors. In partnership with Metron, Oracle can then serve as the primary layer to take in other entities, under controlled conditions, and give them OODA (observe, orient, decide, and act) tools.

Of course, this layer has great potential for compounding profits, similar to Palantir’s positioning to provide hegemony technology.

Year-to-date, ORCL stock is up 27%, with the company’s IaaS revenue up 52% to $3 billion in the latest earnings report for fiscal Q4 2025. In the earnings call, Ellison boldly stated that Oracle will become the “most profitable cloud applications company in the world”, given that it will “build more cloud infrastructure data centers than all of our infrastructure competitors combined.”

Presently priced at $211, the average ORCL price target is in line, at $211.45 per share according to WSJ forecasting. The bottom outlook is $170, while the ceiling price target for ORCL stock is $246 per share.

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Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR)

As one of our most covered companies, we’ve maintained that Palantir’s AI stack resembles Microsoft’s path to dominance with its Windows operating system. Serving both governments and corporations, Palantir automates away redundant bureaucracy but also provides “actionable insight” with granular AI-powered workflow.

In close relationship with Elon Musk’s DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) to streamline governance processes, and after getting selected by President Trump to harmonize digital records on citizens, it is now even more likely that Palantir will become the Microsoft of governance systems.

Expectedly, Palantir is also in a strategic relationship with Ellison’s Oracle, leveraging Oracle’s robust cloud infrastructure and existing inroads with government contractors.

In short, as governments and corporations become more complex, the need for their effective and more responsive control will become greater. Although both China and the U.S. already have state-run capitalism, China is more effective by not having democratic layers.

By implementing networked, AI-based layers, this should give the U.S. the necessary edge to compete, putting Oracle and Palantir at the center of this transformation.

Year-to-date, PLTR stock is up 86%, presently priced at $141.41 per share. Although the news-driven bullish trajectory elevated Palantir’s valuation, this is likely to subside. The average PLTR price target is now $107, with the bottom forecast of $40 and the ceiling price target of $160 per share.

Archer Aviation Inc. (NYSE: ACHR)

Continuing with the theme of interconnectedness, both Oracle and Palantir partnered with Anduril Industries, the rising star in the military industrial complex focused on AI-powered autonomous vehicles and ordnance systems.

The head of Anduril is Palmer Luckey, the original founder of Oculus VR which was sold to Facebook in 2014 for $2 billion. Most recently after securing another $2.5 billion funding round, to a total of $6.26 billion, Luckey announced plans for a $900 million manufacturing facility Arsenal-1 in Ohio.

Although Anduril is not a publicly traded company, Archer Aviation will contribute in deploying a new generation of weaponry through its defense division. On its own, Archer is the primary candidate for commercialized eVTOL deployment, as we extensively covered on Monday, including the stock’s prospects.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Aptevo Therapeutics (NASDAQ: APVO) shares exploded in premarket trading, surging an incredible 123.4% to $6.30 after closing at just $2.82 the previous day. The dramatic spike comes after the biotechnology company released breakthrough clinical trial data for its lead cancer treatment, mipletamig, showing remarkable results in treating acute myeloid leukemia (AML).

The premarket surge at 8:51 AM EDT reflects investor excitement over what could be a game-changing therapy for cancer patients who can’t handle intensive chemotherapy.

Aptevo’s Mipletamig Breakthrough: 85% Remission Rate Changes the Game

The catalyst behind today’s massive stock surge is Aptevo’s announcement of compelling clinical data from its Phase 1b/2 RAINIER trial. Their experimental drug mipletamig, a CD123 x CD3 bispecific antibody, achieved an impressive 85% remission rate when combined with existing drugs venetoclax and azacitidine for treating frontline AML patients. This performance significantly outpaces competitor studies and current standard treatments, marking a potential breakthrough for patients who can’t tolerate intensive chemotherapy.

What makes these results even more exciting is the safety profile. Unlike many cancer immunotherapies that cause dangerous side effects, mipletamig showed no cytokine release syndrome (CRS) in the first two patient groups tested.

This suggests the company’s engineered CRIS-7 binding technology successfully reduces toxicity while maintaining powerful anti-cancer effects. Three patients with poor prognosis even achieved complete remission, with one successfully proceeding to a life-saving transplant.

The trial’s momentum continues building as Cohort 3 approaches full enrollment at the highest dose level tested so far.

For a small biotech company with a market cap of just $1.9 million, these results represent a potential paradigm shift that could redefine treatment standards for elderly or unfit AML patients who historically have limited options.

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APVO Stock Brief: From $2.82 to $6.30 in Today’s Premarket Action

The premarket explosion shows quickly biotech stocks can move on promising clinical data. APVO closed yesterday at $2.82, down 22.95% from the previous session, before rocketing 123.4% higher to $6.30 in premarket trading at 8:51 AM EDT. This represents a gain of $3.48 per share, nearly doubling investors’ money overnight on the breakthrough news.

The stock’s recent performance has been challenging, with year-to-date returns showing a brutal 96.73% decline compared to the S&P 500’s positive 1.72% gain. The company’s 52-week range spans from $2.81 to an eye-watering $485.44, highlighting the extreme volatility typical of clinical-stage biotechnology stocks. With an average daily volume of 283,959 shares, today’s surge likely represents significantly higher than normal trading activity.

Key financial metrics paint the picture of a typical cash-burning biotech in development mode. The company shows negative earnings per share of -$325.05, no revenue, and a return on equity of -1,023.93%.

However, with $2.14 million in total cash and analyst price targets averaging $420 per share, the mipletamig breakthrough could be the catalyst needed to transform Aptevo from a struggling penny stock into a legitimate cancer treatment contender.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

GMS Inc. (NYSE: GMS), a leading distributor of specialty building products in North America, has released its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending April 30, 2025. Despite facing challenging market conditions, the company has demonstrated strong pricing strategies and cost management. This article delves into the company’s quarterly performance and future guidance, providing insights for stakeholders and investors.

GMS Inc. Reports Net Sales of $1.33 Billion in Q4, Down 5.6%

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, GMS Inc. reported net sales of $1.33 billion, a 5.6% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year. This figure, however, exceeded the market expectation of $1.29 billion.

The decline in sales was primarily attributed to softer market conditions, although this was partially offset by strategic pricing in key product categories such as Wallboard, Ceilings, and Complementary Products. Notably, steel framing experienced a significant drop in sales due to deflation in steel prices, impacting overall revenue by an estimated $22 million.

Despite these challenges, GMS Inc. achieved an adjusted net income of $50.2 million, or $1.29 per diluted share, slightly above the expected EPS of $1.15. However, this represented a substantial decline from the $81.6 million, or $2.01 per diluted share, recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. The decrease in net income was largely due to lower sales volumes and reduced vendor incentive income, which affected gross profit margins, decreasing by 70 basis points to 31.2%.

Operating expenses for the quarter were $315.1 million, a slight decrease from the previous year, demonstrating effective cost management despite a $14 million increase in expenses related to recent acquisitions. The company has successfully implemented cost reduction strategies, contributing to a 130 basis point increase in SG&A expenses as a percentage of net sales, now at 23.6%.

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GMS Catuiously Optimistic on Fiscal 2026 Outlook

Looking ahead, GMS Inc. is cautiously optimistic about fiscal 2026, expecting market conditions to stabilize and demand to rebound. The company is focusing on strategic acquisitions and greenfield expansions to enhance its market presence and service offerings. Recently, GMS expanded its product offerings with the acquisition of the Lutz Company, a respected distributor in Minnesota, and established new locations in key markets such as Owens Sound, Ontario, and Nashville, Tennessee.

To support these growth initiatives, GMS has maintained a strong balance sheet with no near-term debt maturities. As of April 30, 2025, the company had $55.6 million in cash and $631.3 million in available liquidity under its revolving credit facility. The net debt leverage ratio increased to 2.4 times Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA from 1.7 times a year ago, reflecting strategic investments and share repurchases.

As the company progresses into fiscal 2026, it aims to capitalize on pent-up demand and market improvements. With a leaner organizational structure and continued investments in technology and efficiency optimization, GMS is well-positioned to capture opportunities in the construction market. The company has committed to an additional estimated $25 million in annualized cost reductions, reinforcing its strategic priorities and enhancing shareholder value.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Verve Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VERV) shares are experiencing dramatic premarket gains, surging over 78% to $11.18 after closing at $6.27 on Monday. The biotech company’s stock is responding to reports that pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly is in advanced negotiations to acquire the gene editing specialist for approximately $1.3 billion. The Financial Times broke the story late Monday, citing sources close to the matter, suggesting a deal could be announced as early as this week.

Eli Lilly’s Strategic Move: Why Verve Makes Sense

The rumored acquisition represents a natural progression of the existing partnership between Eli Lilly and Verve Therapeutics that began in mid-2023. Initially focused on advancing Verve’s in vivo gene editing program targeting lipoprotein(a) for treating atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, the collaboration expanded later that year when Lilly paid $200 million upfront to acquire rights to Verve’s PCSK9 and ANGPTL3 programs, plus an undisclosed third cardiovascular target.

According to the Financial Times report, Lilly will pay nearly $1 billion upfront with an additional $300 million tied to achieving certain milestones.

The timing appears strategic, coming just ahead of Lilly’s upcoming opt-in decision on Verve’s leading pipeline candidate, VERVE-102. BMO Capital Markets analysts noted that the transaction “makes sense” given the close ties between the companies and Lilly’s substantial investment in Verve’s technology. The deal would value Verve at approximately $14.50 per share, representing about double its Monday closing price, though analysts had previously set a higher target of $20 per share.

For Lilly, this acquisition continues an active year of business development following January’s agreement to buy Scorpion Therapeutics’ PI3Kα inhibitor program for up to $2.5 billion and the recent purchase of SiteOne Therapeutics for up to $1 billion to expand its pain portfolio. The Verve deal would strengthen Lilly’s position in the rapidly evolving gene editing space, particularly for cardiovascular applications.

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VERV Stock Performance Skyrockets in Premarket Amid Eli Lilly Deal Reports

VERV shares opened Tuesday’s premarket session at $6.25, quickly surging to $11.18, representing a remarkable 78.31% gain from Monday’s close of $6.27.

The stock had shown modest regular-hours performance on Monday, gaining just 1.79%, but the acquisition rumors have dramatically altered investor sentiment. Trading volume reached 2.2 million shares, significantly above the average volume of 3.49 million, indicating heightened institutional and retail interest.

The biotech stock has demonstrated strong year-to-date performance with an 11.17% gain, substantially outperforming the broader market’s 2.58% return. Over the past year, VERV has delivered 15.68% returns to shareholders, though the stock remains well below its historical highs with a 52-week range of $2.87 to $9.31. The company maintains a market capitalization of approximately $559 million based on Monday’s closing price.

Analyst sentiment appears increasingly bullish, with recent coverage suggesting significant upside potential. Wall Street analysts maintain an average price target of $24.33, indicating substantial room for growth even after the premarket surge.

The stock recently reclaimed its 200-day moving average, a technical indicator that many traders view as a positive momentum signal for continued price appreciation.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL) has reported its third quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025, showcasing a robust performance that exceeded market expectations. The company also provided optimistic guidance for the upcoming quarter and fiscal year.

Jabil Inc. Reports Better than Expected Results for Third-Quarter FY’25

In the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Jabil Inc. reported net revenue of $7.828 billion, surpassing the expected $6.97 billion. The company’s U.S. GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) stood at $2.03, slightly below the anticipated $2.28. However, the core diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) was $2.55, exceeding expectations and highlighting the company’s underlying strength.

CEO Mike Dastoor emphasized the company’s performance in sectors like cloud and data center infrastructure, which have been pivotal in driving growth. Despite challenges in areas such as electric vehicles and renewables, Jabil’s diversified portfolio has enabled it to maintain strong core earnings. The Intelligent Infrastructure segment, benefiting from rising AI-driven demand, remains a critical growth engine for the company.

Comparatively, Jabil’s performance in the third quarter of the previous year showcased a net revenue of $6.765 billion, with a U.S. GAAP diluted EPS of $1.06. This year’s results reflect significant growth and operational efficiency, positioning the company well against market expectations and its historical performance.

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Jabil Raises Fiscal 2025 Outlook, Projects Net Revenue Between $7.1-$7.8 Billion

Looking ahead, Jabil has raised its fiscal year 2025 outlook, projecting net revenue between $7.1 billion and $7.8 billion for the fourth quarter. The company anticipates U.S. GAAP operating income to range from $331 million to $411 million, with a core operating income (Non-GAAP) expected between $428 million and $488 million. The guidance for core diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) is set between $2.64 and $3.04, reflecting optimism in sustaining strong performance.

For the full fiscal year, Jabil forecasts net revenue of $29 billion, with a core operating margin (Non-GAAP) of 5.4%. The company also expects core diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) to reach $9.33, supported by adjusted free cash flow exceeding $1.2 billion. This guidance underscores Jabil’s focus on enhancing core margins, optimizing cash flow, and delivering shareholder value through share repurchases and strategic investments in higher-margin opportunities.

Jabil’s forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and forecasts, considering potential risks and uncertainties. The company remains committed to navigating challenges such as customer demand fluctuations, supply chain dependencies, and geopolitical factors, ensuring continued operational excellence and financial stability.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Kirkland’s, Inc. (NASDAQ: KIRK) has announced its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, highlighting a period marked by challenges and strategic shifts. The company is undergoing a significant transformation, including a corporate reorganization and changes to its board of directors, as it navigates a difficult retail environment.

Kirkland Reports Decline in Net Sales in Q1 FY’25

In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, Kirkland’s, Inc. experienced a decline in net sales, reporting $81.5 million compared to $91.8 million in the same period last year. This figure fell short of the anticipated revenue of $91.59 million. The decrease was attributed to a drop in both e-commerce and comparable store sales, compounded by a reduction in store count by approximately 5%. Comparable sales saw an 8.9% decline, with e-commerce sales plummeting by 26.7%. The company also reported a gross profit margin of 24.9%, down from 29.5% in the previous year, primarily due to increased promotional activities and higher store occupancy costs.

Despite these challenges, Kirkland’s CEO Amy Sullivan noted some positive trends, particularly in the performance of Kirkland’s Home stores, which saw a 3% increase in comparable store sales in May compared to the previous year. However, the overall operating loss for the quarter was $10.5 million, a significant increase from the $7.5 million loss reported in the prior year. The adjusted EBITDA loss was $7.9 million, compared to a loss of $4.5 million in the previous year.

The company also reported a net loss of $11.8 million, or $0.54 per diluted share, which was slightly better than the expected EPS loss of $0.5 but still a deterioration from the $8.8 million loss, or $0.68 per diluted share, in the prior year. The diluted weighted average shares outstanding increased to 22.1 million, largely due to Beyond, Inc.’s acquisition of additional shares. This increased share count impacted the EPS comparison to last year.

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Kirkland Focused on Transformation Strategy to Realign Business

Looking ahead, Kirkland’s, Inc. is focusing on a comprehensive transformation strategy to realign its business for improved performance and profitability. The company has announced plans to rebrand as The Brand House Collective, reflecting its evolution into a multi-brand retail operator. This change is pending shareholder approval and is part of a broader effort to strengthen its partnership with Beyond, Inc. and to optimize its asset portfolio.

CEO Amy Sullivan emphasized the importance of these strategic initiatives, which include enhancing inventory productivity, accelerating brand conversion, and closing underperforming assets. While these actions are expected to impact near-term performance, the company believes they will create significant long-term value for shareholders. The recent expansion of the credit agreement with Beyond and the amended collaboration agreements are part of the financial strategy to support these transformation efforts.

The company is also addressing operational disruptions, such as the tornado damage to its Jackson, Tennessee distribution center, which affected its e-commerce operations. Kirkland’s is working with insurance carriers to assess the financial impact and recovery options.

As the company navigates these challenges, it remains committed to leveraging its strategic partnerships and reimagining its future as a leader in the home and family brand space.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Solar stocks experienced a dramatic selloff on Tuesday, June 17, 2025, as the U.S. Senate’s version of President Donald Trump’s tax bill maintained provisions to fully phase out renewable energy incentives by 2028.

Major solar companies saw double-digit losses in premarket trading, with some stocks plummeting over 27% as investors fled the sector.

The Senate bill specifically targets solar and wind power tax incentives while preserving support for nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal energy sources, marking a significant shift in federal energy policy that threatens the renewable energy sector’s growth trajectory.

Trump’s Tax Bill Devastates Solar Stocks

The Senate version of Trump’s tax bill includes a provision that would completely eliminate both solar and wind power tax incentives by 2028, dealing a crushing blow to the renewable energy sector.

Unlike previous versions, this legislation maintains support for nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal energy sources, creating a clear preference for traditional and alternative energy technologies over solar and wind.

The renewable energy incentives were cornerstone policies of former President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, and their removal represents a fundamental reversal of federal clean energy support.

Senate Republicans are pushing aggressively to pass the legislation before the Fourth of July holiday, with the bill also raising the federal debt limit from $4 trillion to $5 trillion. The elimination of these tax credits could severely impact project financing and development timelines across the solar industry.

The legislation’s implications extend beyond solar to other clean energy sectors, particularly electric vehicles, which are also facing policy headwinds.

Senate Republicans have separately proposed ending the $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicle sales within 180 days of the measure becoming law, and immediately terminating credits for leased EVs manufactured outside North America.

This broader assault on clean energy incentives signals a comprehensive shift away from renewable technology support under the Trump administration.

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Panic Among Solar Stocks Following Shift in Policy Outlook

The market reaction to the Senate bill was swift and severe, with leading solar companies experiencing catastrophic losses during Tuesday’s trading session.

Enphase Energy (ENPH) led the decline, plummeting over 24% to $34.63 in premarket trading, while Sunrun (RUN) crashed more than 27% and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) dropped 22%. First Solar (FSLR) fell approximately 12%, demonstrating that even the largest players in the sector were not immune to the selloff.

The broader solar sector performance data reveals the magnitude of the industry’s struggles throughout 2025. Year-to-date returns show the solar industry down 13.99% compared to the S&P 500’s positive 1.95% gain, highlighting the sector’s underperformance even before this latest policy shock.

The one-year returns paint an even more dire picture, with the solar industry declining 44.91% while the broader market gained 10.87%, indicating sustained pressure on renewable energy investments.

Individual company performance data underscores the sector’s vulnerability to policy changes. Among the largest solar companies, First Solar trades at $145.52 with a market cap of $15.579 billion but shows negative returns across multiple timeframes, including a -17.43% year-to-date decline. Enphase Energy, despite its recent 24% drop, still maintains a significant market presence but faces analyst downgrades and earnings disappointments that compound the policy-related headwinds facing the entire renewable energy sector.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU) faces mounting financial pressures as the airline announces significant cost-cutting measures, including flight reductions and aircraft parking, in response to weakening travel demand.

The carrier’s stock has plummeted over 42% year-to-date, with shares declining an additional 3.61% to $4.4050 in recent trading as investors react to internal memos revealing the company’s struggles to achieve profitability.

CEO Joanna Geraghty acknowledged that reaching breakeven operating margin in 2025 now appears “unlikely,” marking a significant departure from the airline’s earlier optimistic projections and highlighting the broader challenges facing the aviation industry.

JetBlue Implements Aggressive Cost-Cutting Strategy

JetBlue Airways is implementing sweeping cost-reduction measures as deteriorating market conditions force the airline to reassess its operational strategy and financial outlook.

According to an internal memo from CEO Joanna Geraghty, the company will reduce flight schedules, park aircraft, and wind down underperforming routes while concentrating resources on profitable operations. The airline is also reassessing the size and scope of its leadership team as part of broader organizational restructuring efforts aimed at preserving cash flow during challenging market conditions.

The New York-based carrier has been particularly impacted by ongoing inspections of RTX’s Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan engines, which have grounded portions of its fleet and increased operational complexity.

Additionally, the airline faces pressure from broader economic uncertainty stemming from trade policies and tariffs that have made consumers more cautious about discretionary travel spending. These operational challenges compound the industry-wide demand weakness that has forced major U.S. airlines to scale back capacity ahead of the traditionally busy summer travel season.

JetBlue’s struggles reflect broader industry headwinds, but the company’s situation appears particularly acute given its previous optimistic projections for 2025 profitability.

The carrier had withdrawn its 2025 forecast in April, citing weakening demand, and has already announced plans to defer deliveries of 44 new Airbus jets, reducing planned capital expenditures by approximately $3 billion through 2029. The company will also pause retrofitting six Airbus aircraft and park them instead, representing a significant scaling back of expansion plans.

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JBLU Stock Performance Reflects Aviation Market Pessimism

JetBlue’s stock performance has deteriorated significantly throughout 2025, with shares declining 3.61% to $4.4050 as of 11:49 AM EDT on June 17, representing a continuation of the stock’s sharp downward trajectory.

The stock has lost more than 42% of its value year-to-date, reflecting investor concerns about the airline’s ability to return to profitability amid challenging operating conditions. With a 52-week range of $3.3400 to $8.3100, the current price sits near the lower end of this range, indicating sustained bearish sentiment among market participants.

Trading volume of 12,168,019 shares significantly exceeded the average volume of 28,047,215, suggesting heightened investor interest and concern following the release of internal communications about cost-cutting measures.

The stock’s market capitalization has contracted to $1.561 billion, while the company’s negative earnings per share of -$0.78 underscores the financial challenges facing the airline. The absence of dividend payments reflects the company’s focus on cash preservation rather than shareholder returns during this difficult period.

Key financial metrics paint a concerning picture for investors, with the stock trading without a meaningful price-to-earnings ratio due to negative earnings and a 1-year target estimate of $4.21 suggesting limited upside potential in the near term.

The company’s beta of 1.83 indicates higher volatility relative to the broader market, making the stock particularly sensitive to industry-wide developments and broader economic conditions. With earnings expected between July 28 and August 1, 2025, investors will be closely watching for additional guidance on the company’s restructuring efforts and path back to profitability.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our  website policy prior to making financial decisions.

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) announced its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, showcasing robust growth in both revenue and net income. The company’s revenue for Q4 2024 reached $13.53 billion, marking a significant 45% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This growth was primarily driven by a 48% rise in volume, with Mounjaro and Zepbound being key contributors. However, this was slightly offset by a 4% decline due to lower realized prices. The non-incretin revenue also experienced a 20% growth over the previous year, highlighting the company’s diverse product portfolio. In terms of profitability, Eli Lilly reported a remarkable 102% increase in earnings per share (EPS) on a reported basis, reaching $4.88. On a non-GAAP basis, EPS surged by 114% to $5.32. This impressive performance included $0.19 of acquired in-process research and development charges. The company’s gross margin for the quarter expanded by 47% to $11.13 billion, with a gross margin percentage of 82.2%, reflecting a favorable product mix despite the pressure from lower prices. The company’s research and development expenses rose by 18% to $3.02 billion, accounting for 22.3% of the revenue. This increase was driven by continued investments in its early and late-stage portfolio. Additionally, marketing, selling, and administrative expenses saw a 26% rise to $2.42 billion, primarily due to promotional efforts for ongoing and future product launches. These investments underscore Eli Lilly’s commitment to maintaining its growth trajectory through innovation and market expansion.

Eli Lilly Reports 45% y/y Revenue Growth, Driven by Key Products

When comparing Eli Lilly’s Q4 2024 performance against market expectations, the results present a mixed picture. The company’s revenue of $13.53 billion fell short of the anticipated $13.78 billion. Despite this, the revenue growth of 45% year-over-year remains a testament to the strong demand for its key products, such as Mounjaro and Zepbound, which continue to drive volume increases.On the earnings front, Eli Lilly exceeded expectations. The non-GAAP EPS of $5.32 surpassed the expected EPS of $5.3, highlighting the company’s ability to manage costs effectively and optimize its product mix. This performance indicates that while revenue targets were not fully met, the company was able to leverage its operational efficiencies to deliver higher-than-expected earnings per share.Notable developments during the quarter included the U.S. FDA approval of Zepbound for a new indication and the approval of Omvoh for Crohn’s disease. These advancements not only bolster Eli Lilly’s product pipeline but also support its long-term growth strategy.

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Eli Lilly Expects Revenue in the $58 Billion to $61 Billion Range for 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, Eli Lilly has provided optimistic guidance, projecting revenue in the range of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion. This represents a potential growth of approximately 32% compared to 2024, driven by the continued success of recently launched products such as Zepbound and Mounjaro, as well as potential new product launches. The company also expects to expand its manufacturing capacity significantly, aiming to produce at least 1.6 times the amount of salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.Eli Lilly has set its EPS guidance for 2025 between $22.05 and $23.55 on a reported basis and $22.50 to $24.00 on a non-GAAP basis. This range reflects the company’s confidence in its ability to sustain earnings growth through strategic investments and operational improvements. The anticipated effective tax rate for 2025 is approximately 16%, which aligns with the company’s financial planning and tax strategy.In terms of operational efficiency, Eli Lilly expects the ratio of (Gross Margin – OPEX) / Revenue to be between 40.5% and 42.5% on a reported basis, and 41.5% to 43.5% on a non-GAAP basis. This indicates a continued focus on optimizing operational costs while driving revenue growth. Additionally, other income (expense) is projected to be an expense in the range of $700 million to $600 million, primarily due to higher interest expenses.

Eli Lilly’s strategic outlook remains positive, with several initiatives underway to support future growth. The company is actively investing in expanding its manufacturing capacity, as evidenced by a $3 billion investment in its facility in Kenosha County, Wisconsin.

This expansion aims to enhance its global injectable product manufacturing network, ensuring the company can meet the growing demand for its products.The company’s commitment to innovation is further demonstrated by its ongoing clinical trials and regulatory submissions. Eli Lilly anticipates several important Phase 3 readouts in 2025, which, if positive, could accelerate its growth trajectory.

The acquisition of Scorpion Therapeutics’ mutant-selective PI3Kα inhibitor program also highlights Eli Lilly’s focus on strengthening its oncology portfolio.Moreover, Eli Lilly continues to prioritize shareholder value through a $15 billion share repurchase program and a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend for the seventh consecutive year.

Disclaimer: The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.

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