张无忌wepoets

Ice and Fire Island Binance Chat Room, welcome all cryptocurrency friends to communicate together.
Weekly live sessions discussing options strategies and data analysis.
Let's be friends with time, enjoy the rental income~hhh
冰火岛聊天室 ← Chat Room Entrance

Many are connected to credit reporting, after borrowing from one, the limit of the other may be reduced or no more loans will be granted. 😄 Unless you quickly go through all of them in a short time, which would require multiple people to do it simultaneously.

This week, US stocks and the A-shares are doing well, especially the A-shares' ChiNext, which reached a four-year high, creating a strong bull market atmosphere.
The cryptocurrency market is warming up; however, the trends still face some divergences, showing signs of insufficient momentum.
The large transactions in options, with a surge in single bets for a month, have encouraged traders.
Let's take a look at the ETH options data.
From the IV perspective, the 1W IV is approaching the 1M level, and RV is also on the rise. It is expected that the subsequent IV will continue to gradually rise.
The VRP has been positive recently, making it easier for sellers.
From the changes in OI, the recent increase in calls has slightly decreased yesterday, while puts have begun to increase, possibly indicating that some traders are taking insurance or protective measures against drawdowns.
From the gamma ex perspective, 3.4K still presents strong resistance, making it difficult for ETH to break through. Below 3.3K is a negative gamma zone, and once there is a pullback, volatility will be amplified.
Overall, the bullish trend remains unchanged, but caution is needed for potential phase pullbacks. In the current market, seller strategies are more advantageous than buyer strategies, such as ratio spreads, butterfly strategies, etc.
Although the valuation of cryptocurrencies is not high, both US stocks and A-shares have risen to historical highs. The direction for 2026 remains to be observed.
It is worth mentioning that the market is generally concerned about the physical delivery shortage issue of comex silver at the end of March, and whether silver will become the first snowflake during a snowball effect is unpredictable.
Keep a close eye on the options skew; currently, the long-term is still negative. The transition to a fully bullish outlook is not far off.
Wishing everyone to be friends with time and to open positions steadily~

A new year, a new week, and the trend looks good.
The price of ETH is rising, but it is still not advisable to be overly optimistic.
From the IV perspective, the recent IV is rising, but the RV is still declining.
From the skew perspective, the near end is correcting positive, while the far end is still negative.
Overall, traders are confident about the recent trend, but the medium to long term still shows bearish sentiment.
Currently, chasing upward with a selling strategy is a relatively stable choice. It is recommended to reduce gamma while maintaining positive Theta and positive delta, observing as we go.
Wishing everyone to be friends with time and open positions steadily~

Basically completed, the upward momentum appears to be exhausted according to the K-line trend, it may be time to take profit.

The near-end IV is low, while the far-end IV is relatively higher. Buy near straddles and sell far 4x wide straddles.
Combine to create a sell-side strategy that resembles a butt. Referred to as the "sell butt" strategy.
Positive gamma, Theta is also slightly positive, negative vega.
Regardless of the price direction changes, it will be profitable. No worries about holding long.
The only risk is if the expiration price remains unchanged, it will result in a slight loss of premium. (Can continue to rollover, with decent tolerance)
As for a dramatic rise beyond both sides' profit range, it is basically impossible. A DDH bottom line can be added.
Recently, the skew in options has turned positive, hoping for a small rise to add some excitement.

At the beginning of the new year, everything is renewed.
This past year, cryptocurrency did not outperform the US stock market and the A-shares, but island friends should not lose confidence; this blue ocean is still the paradise for alpha.
Today, let's review the ETH options data trends from the past year, understanding the gains and losses clearly.
Let’s take a look at the four indicators: IV, RV, skew, and VRP, mainly comparing the 1M and 3M periods, representing the near-term and long-term respectively.
The trend of IV fully reflects the characteristics of volatility and mean reversion; when it rises too much, it falls, and when it falls too much, it rises. Moreover, the near-term breakthroughs and breakdowns relative to the long-term will create a trend continuation for a certain period, making the volatility IV trend very tradeable.
The trend of RV, on the other hand, has a relatively larger span, and the mean reversion of IV is not as obvious. The movement of the larger trend also shows the characteristic of gradually converging volatility.
The trend of skew somewhat aligns with the price movement of the spot market. Both show a trend of a quick rise in the short term followed by a long-term decline.
The trend of VRP selected a 7D cycle, with a larger overall area of negative values and smaller positive values, indirectly reflecting the difficult situation for sellers. Over the past year, the short-term fluctuations of RV have exceeded the magnitude of IV.
Last year, the bull came and then went far away.
In the present new year, options traders may face a more severe IV trend.
Wishing everyone to be a friend of time, transitioning from trading price to trading time and trading volatility, truly becoming a mature options trader!
Happy new year!

On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, and precious metals plummeted, likely due to investors taking profits at the end of the year.
The cryptocurrency market also followed suit, with ETH options previously showing positive skew now reverting to negative values. The market once again experienced a rise followed by a fall, returning to the positive gamma range.
Current data has returned to a familiar state.
From the gamma ex perspective, current prices are in the positive gamma area, and the downward trend will receive effective support. Whether it can re-enter the negative gamma range, specifically above the 3K position, will depend on the market after New Year's Day.
From the implied volatility (IV) perspective, there is a general downward trend in both the near and mid-term, making it hard to expect significant short-term volatility.
Looking at changes in open interest (OI), the increase on the put side is evident, with protective sentiment still dominating.
It is recommended that the seller's strategy can continue, collecting rent to sustain.
Position sizes should not be large.
With changes in IV skew, adjust the delta exposure direction accordingly at any time.
Wishing everyone to be friends with time, steadily collecting rent~

The weekend market is dull, it's advisable to conduct some research and review in a 'carving the boat to seek the sword' manner.
Looking back at the price trend of ETH over the past year and the volatility trend of ETH dvol, after the low point of IV, there has basically been a wave of 'big' movements.
Whether it's a surge or a crash, both long options have performed well.
Today's ETH dvol is basically at a bottom position again.
Is there a possibility of an explosion next week?
From the skew perspective, the RR value has fully turned positive at the near end, and bulls are getting restless.
From the VRP measurement, the current IV is not considered expensive, but the RV has been compressed to a very low position, making the possibility of a rebound extremely high.
If you're bold, placing a bet on a surge is not out of the question. However, a more stable approach is to bet on a surge in IV and gamma without gambling on the price.
The biggest enemy of the long options is time; when to wait for the upward wave is a question. The possibility of IV going lower is not ruled out.
Therefore, it is recommended to set up a position at the money a week later. If there is no action when the U.S. stock market opens tomorrow, then roll forward to a later expiration date.
Wishing everyone to be friends with time and open positions steadily~

By the end of 2025, the crypto options have expired, and the market can finally shake off the old burdens and move forward lightly.
Global stock markets are sluggish, and the A-shares experienced a shocking reversal midway.
Apart from gold, silver, and copper, it seems that other assets are quite stagnant.
Let’s take a look at the changes in my favorite ETH data.
From the IV perspective, the overall IV curve is sinking, and the expected year-end holiday in Europe and the United States will likely lead to even lower liquidity. The RR skew has returned to positive quite a bit, which is a relatively good sign.
From the OI perspective, the long out-of-the-money call positions have increased significantly.
From the gamma ex perspective, 2.9k is firmly holding positive gamma, while around 3K it turns to negative gamma, and future price fluctuations may be amplified.
Overall, it is more suitable for sellers to close positions and take profits at this time, while buyers should be ready to enter the market.
Will there be a wave of market activity around New Year's Day? The opportunity is great.
Wishing everyone to be friends with time and to open positions steadily~

Merry Christmas 🎄
On the 26th, there will be a large options expiration and repositioning at the end of the year, beware of volatility risks ～

According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates is 86.7%.
Besenet recently hinted that the Federal Reserve's policy framework may face significant adjustments, including replacing the fixed point target with an inflation "range system" and canceling the highly watched interest rate path "dot plot".
If Besenet's expectations are realized, reducing the Federal Reserve's presence would be a good thing for the financial markets, diminishing speculation around rate decisions and focusing more on the true value of U.S. stocks.
It could also be a good thing for the cryptocurrency market, reducing short-term volatility.
Let's continue to observe the changes in BTC and ETH options data. The expiration date for options on the 26th is approaching, and many data points have become distorted. It is recommended to look at the data for January 30th separately, as the institutions' position adjustments are likely nearing completion.
Overall, the IV curve for BTC and ETH is showing a downward trend, with all maturities experiencing decreasing volatility.
gamma ex also shows a positive gamma accumulation near the current price, indicating significant resistance to short-term volatility.
It is advisable for sellers to gradually close profitable positions and wait for new data to emerge after the 26th before choosing to enter.
Buyers might consider positioning themselves in advance for the direction in a week or even a month into the new year.
With Christmas and New Year's Day approaching, liquidity is decreasing, making trading more difficult. Sometimes it's better to stay still than to act.
Wishing everyone to be a friend of time and to open positions steadily~

On December 26 at 4 PM (UTC+8), over 50% of the crypto options positions will expire, leading to a massive amount of liquidation and position transfer, which is likely to cause significant volatility in the market.
Let's take a look at the data changes for ETH, which are quite interesting.
Some traders have opened call options with a strike price of 5000 for the end of January; is this the rhythm of a bull market surge?
From the implied volatility (IV), it is evident that the recent near-term IV has dropped significantly, while the long-term IV has not decreased much. The RR value is negative, but it has improved compared to the previous weeks. This is the Christmas rally that everyone is looking forward to, bringing some warmth back to bullish sentiment.
The changes in open interest (OI) further indicate a clear bullish sentiment.
Gamma exposure is completely controlled by the expiring positions on December 26, with the focus of the battle concentrated on the 3K strike price. The maximum pain point upon expiration is 3100; it remains to be seen if this maximum pain point will manifest this time.
It is recommended that sellers close positions in advance and avoid participating in the battle on the 26th, letting buyers fight it out.
Wishing everyone to be friends with time and to open positions steadily~

Tomorrow is Monday again, and the script seems different. The bullish sentiment in the market has warmed up, and many people are looking forward to a bull comeback.
However, institutional analysts are not optimistic; Tom Lee's little brother is still saying ETH will crash to 2000, which is interesting behind the scenes.
Today's ETH IV entire curve is rising, but the RR value has not fallen to negative; instead, it is recovering towards positive values. It's a very interesting phenomenon.
From the gamma ex perspective, the positive gamma at the 3K level is very prominent, while gamma at other levels is decreasing, indicating that the gamma expiring on the 26th will significantly affect short-term trends.
The change in OI yesterday showed strong power in calls, and a strong bullish trend breaking through 3K in the short term cannot be ruled out.
Based on this, it is recommended that sellers reduce their positions to avoid gamma strikes.
Buy-side traders can try to position themselves in advance for the breakout trend.
Of course, saying a bull comeback at this time is still too contrary to common sense; it's merely the probability of a rebound in a bear market.
Everyone still needs to have good put insurance and be well-defended.
Wishing everyone to be friends with time and open positions steadily~

Last night, the US non-farm payrolls released data for October and November, with mixed results; overall positive, but not good enough to favor an immediate rate cut in January. The US stock market also remained stagnant without rebounding last night.
The cryptocurrency sector had already priced in this data in advance, declining first as a form of respect. The likelihood of a rebound this week currently seems low.
The bear market has once again confirmed the trend.
Let's take a look at the ETH data.
From the implied volatility (IV), the overall implied volatility is trending downwards, and the risk-reward (RR) ratio is rising, which indicates that the panic of decline has eased, and the IV premium on the put side has somewhat contracted.
From the open interest (OI), the changes on the put side are more significant, with the largest increase in puts at the 2800 level.
From the gamma exposure, the 3K position on the 26th shows a clear positive gamma, with a huge gamma distribution set to expire on the 26th, indicating strong upward resistance; a rebound may be easier after the 26th.
Additionally, FLY data has also been highly volatile recently, making shorting volatility at highs a good choice. Currently, the trend indicates that there will not be strong impacts from violent ups and downs in the short term, with the negative gamma area significantly reduced, and OI is also centered around the strike price.
From a strategic perspective, we can continue to implement medium- to long-term butterfly spreads. Those who want to bet on changes in this week's CPI can also try a calendar strategy of buying short-dated and selling long-dated options.
In bear market trading, it’s best to use combination strategies to mitigate unilateral risk, manage position sizes well, and avoid reckless moves.
Wishing everyone to be friends with time and open positions steadily~

Hello everyone, it’s a new week again. This week, a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is almost certain, and interest rate decisions from various central banks will also be announced. The US CPI data will also be released.

There is no doubt that it will be another week of significant volatility. Let’s take a look at the ETH options data.

From the IV perspective, the near-term IV has risen again, and panic sentiment has resurfaced. The negative RR value in the near term is quite noticeable, indicating that market sentiment regarding the yen's interest rate hike has already emerged.

From the OI perspective, the new ETH option positions on Sunday are mainly puts, concentrated around the 3000 strike price.

From the gamma ex perspective, 3000 remains a region with obvious positive gamma, and price fluctuations are expected to be smoothed out, making it a strong support level.

If the US CPI is released and exceeds expectations, it could be favorable for interest rate cut expectations, and the possibility of a rebound in the US stock market and cryptocurrencies cannot be ruled out.

At this time, market views are somewhat divided, as everyone is waiting for the data to be released this week.

As the IV rises again, one can short volatility at higher levels. There’s no rush to open positions; wait for the effects of the yen interest rate cut and the US CPI release, entering the market when the IV is relatively high.

Wishing everyone to be friends of time and to open positions steadily~

In December, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. At the same time, it announced a $40 billion Treasury purchase plan to be initiated within two days. Everything seems to be looking good.
The expectation for interest rate cuts next year is not very optimistic. According to the latest economic forecast summary, although the median in the dot plot remains unchanged, indicating one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, there were six 'soft dissent' opinions in the 2026 forecast, which slightly leans towards a hawkish stance.
The implied volatility (IV) of ETH has clearly declined, and the entire surface has sunk and flattened slightly.
Friends who are shorting volatility with a butterfly spread can reap rewards.
How the market will move next remains to be seen with new narratives. Since liquidity has improved, there is no reason not to see a rally, right?
From the FLY data, the curvature of the volatility smile has decreased, and sellers have entered a comfort zone.
From gamma ex, the range between 3K and 3.3K is still in the negative gamma zone, and volatility may be quite intense.
In terms of strategy, one can operate in line with the trend. Sellers suggest a wide dual sell for the medium to long term; buyers may consider directional trading with call ratios and put ratios while also benefiting from falling volatility.
Wishing everyone to be friends with time and to open positions steadily~

U.S. stocks dipped slightly, while cryptocurrencies surged. The independent market performance is indeed strong, especially ETH, which soared by 10% at its peak.
The Fear and Greed Index has shifted from extreme fear to fear, and the overall options implied volatility skew remains deeply negative.
This means that alongside the rebound, bearish sentiment still prevails.
After the interest rate cut on the evening of the 11th, will there be a crash? Everyone's concerns are likely focused on this.
Let's take a look at the data.
In terms of implied volatility, the overall IV has slightly decreased, and the risk-reward ratio remains negative, indicating that risk is still high.
From the changes in open interest, there are many short-term traders betting on an upward movement. In the short term, the possibility of continued violent rebounds cannot be ruled out.
From the gamma exposure perspective, the right side of 3200 has completely shifted to a negative gamma dominance zone. If a gamma squeeze occurs, the effect will be very obvious, pushing volatility to increase.
Overall, there is a clear divergence between bulls and bears. As market prices rise, those who have already profited can take partial profits while waiting for the interest rate cut to make a decision on the larger direction to continue pursuing.
For the selling strategy, it is acceptable to continue a wide-ranging double sell to short volatility in the medium to long term. After the 12th, there should be a trend of decreasing volatility, marking the harvest season.
Wishing everyone to be friends of time and to open positions steadily~