小楼

Article Summary: The 'positive sentiment but no bull market' trend in the crypto industry in 2025. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high but significantly underperformed equities and precious metals, with internal confirmation missing. Divergent capital structure: onshore spot buying, offshore spot inventory replenishment with profit-taking at higher prices, offshore leverage rising, and CME institutional positions declining, with options volatility diverging from price. ETF and DAT holdings surged, but mostly driven by passive capital; retail enthusiasm declined, while exchanges shifted focus to retention and multi-asset operations. Miners continue selling due to AI capital expenditures, and early whales combined with large-scale fraud cases have created selling pressure. The author claims the 'four-year halving' narrative has失效, and Bitcoin is moving toward passive financialization; the future requires transforming compliance and ETF-era legitimacy into on-chain utility and real returns.

This article advocates changing one's 'identity' before altering habits: all behaviors are driven by goals, and goals are perspectives on viewing the world. Without changing one's perspective and self-identity, short-term discipline will eventually revert to old patterns. It proposes a cybernetic framework for intelligence: set a goal—take action—perceive—compare—correct. It introduces a 'daily reset' strategy: write a reverse vision and a vision (including identity statements) in the morning, use reminders during the day to break autopilot and examine behavioral motivations, reflect on enemies and insights in the evening, and establish a one-year mission, this month's 'Boss Battle,' and three specific tasks and rules for tomorrow. It turns life into a 'game,' using continuous feedback to drive long-term transformation.

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This article argues that the recent surge in Chinese Meme coins on BSC has rapidly cooled down, primarily due to three factors: community反感 towards the 'Shandong School' launch model centered around CZ and He Yi, leading to a lack of consensus and difficulty in pooling funds; absence of external liquidity from overseas and other chains; and the fading novelty of Chinese Meme narratives, making it hard to survive short-term cycles after market segmentation. Recently, widespread pullbacks in coins like 'I'm fucking here' and 'I'm the boss' have exposed the fragility of the BSC Meme ecosystem, accelerating cycle transitions and affecting the short-term outlook.

$BNB

This article summarizes the replicable strategies for Lighter airdrop and Perp DEX: Lighter TGE airdrop is approximately $675 million, and although there are zero fees, there are still implicit costs such as spread and slippage. Three paths: Cha Bu Si - early genuine usage, deep technical and community involvement; Jiu Fei Te - covering costs through trading systems, mastering referral commissions, 'using airdrops to fund airdrops'; Sam - meticulously calculating costs and returns, cashing out upon achieving 2–3x ROI. In terms of holding strategies, the first two tend to hold and remain bullish on the roadmap, while Sam opts to cash out and exit. Next opportunities: Perp DEX红利 is nearing exhaustion, so either seek undervalued new sectors or selectively choose projects with differentiation and superior experience (e.g., EdgeX, Variational, Extended). Core approach: participate early, understand the rules, prioritize experience, manage risk, and build information and community advantages.

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The article emphasizes that 'privacy' has become a key narrative in blockchain, especially as institutional participation deepens. While public transparency is a strength of on-chain systems, it can expose corporate secrets and investment strategies. Fully anonymous models (like Monero) are difficult for regulatory bodies to adopt due to their lack of support for KYC/AML requirements; institutions are instead favoring selective privacy. Although Zcash offers both transparent and shielded addresses, disclosure is either fully on or fully off, making it hard to adapt to transaction processes where multiple parties require access to only certain elements. Canton Network, already adopted by entities such as DTCC, uses Daml to split and finely authorize transaction information, achieving compliance and business compatibility while leaving room for connection with open Web3 markets. Privacy-focused blockchains are evolving from 'complete concealment' to 'controlled disclosure,' and in the short term, this evolution will continue to center around institutional trading scenarios.

The article argues that in an era of accelerating information and automation, generalists are more competitive than specialists. The core framework is 'self-education, selfishness, self-sufficiency'—using diverse interests to shape unique perspectives and continuously creating content to make learning public, thereby gaining attention and monetizing through products. A brand is defined as an 'environment' that enables transformation. Content should gather high-density, shareable ideas: build an inspiration library, practice multiple expression structures for the same idea, and improve signal-to-noise ratio and influence. Treat yourself as a business, building an iterative creation and distribution system centered around core deliverables like briefs, making the system itself a differentiated product. The path starts from interest, curating, creating, iterating, and transforming cross-domain perspectives into a long-term career and freedom.

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Article Analysis: a16z's Positioning and Approach: Its announcement of raising $15 billion and RAUM exceeding $90 billion, combined with an engineering culture, platform-based operations, strong marketing, and policy advocacy, is building a 'company rather than a fund.' Taking Databricks as an example, betting on the industry leader and holding long-term has delivered impressive returns (e.g., net TVPI over 10x for AH III, strong performance from LSV and crypto funds). Entering its third era, a16z empowers founders and enhances credibility by shaping rules, connecting with governments and large enterprises, and providing capabilities in hiring and sales, continuously earning trust from top-tier companies and LPs. Its core bet: technology devouring the world, with scale making it stronger and accelerating the future.

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Article Overview: Polymarket's Rise from Niche Crypto to the World's Largest Prediction Market — Trading volume exceeded $44 billion in 2025, backed by a $2 billion investment from ICE and a valuation of approximately $9 billion. Its ecosystem includes 19 categories and over 170 tools, covering AI agents, trading terminals/robots, analytics dashboards, alert monitoring, arbitrage and fund management, aggregators, APIs and infrastructure, education, and community. AI and automation significantly outperform humans in latency arbitrage, news/emotion modeling, and high-frequency strategies. The article provides tool recommendations for beginners, active traders, institutions, developers, and automation enthusiasts. Future highlights include: $POLY token, potential native L1, fair regulatory alignment, cross-platform integration, and institutional participation. Conclusion: Choosing the right tools and strategies will fully unlock the knowledge红利 in prediction markets.

$ETH

Ethereum is accelerating its mainnet ZK transformation to continue increasing the Gas limit and performance while maintaining decentralization. ZK enables nodes to quickly verify through proofs, reducing per-transaction validation and hardware costs; although it does not directly speed up the network, it lays the groundwork for the mainnet's TPS to reach thousands. Vitalik stated that ZK-EVM has entered Alpha stage, with upgrades like PeerDAS progressing. Multiple parallel approaches for ZK-EVM (types 1–4, including Polygon, Scroll, zkSync, Taiko) are being pursued, with eventual convergence expected toward the most cost-effective solution; ZK-VMs (such as Brevis), which are不受EVM限制 and offer higher performance, will be encouraged for long-term ecosystem diversity. Mainnet ZK transformation may attract some ZK L2 users back, but overall will reduce fees and promote L2 development.

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The New York Times' lengthy interview with Trump outlines his power logic for a second term: he claims power is constrained only by his 'own morality,' and international law is subject to his discretion; he has already selected a Federal Reserve chairperson supportive of rate cuts, emphasizing that the central bank should align with his will; he has no intention of pardoning SBF, Maduro, and others; he expects the U.S. to maintain long-term control over Venezuela's oil and use tough 'coercive diplomacy' to intimidate the region; he advocates that Greenland should belong to the United States; he does not see family crypto holdings and overseas transactions as conflicts of interest, and aims to elevate the U.S. to a leader in crypto; he is advancing a 'denaturalization' program, focusing on reviewing citizenship applications from Somalis.

The South Korean Financial Services Commission plans to release guidelines this year, ending the corporate investment ban that has been in place since 2017, allowing listed companies and professional investors to allocate up to 5% of their capital to crypto assets, with the assets limited to the top 20 by market capitalization, and discussing whether to include USD-pegged stablecoins; to control risks, phased trading and price limits will be implemented. Funds are expected to remain concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with most companies adopting a cautious approach to allocation. More critically, the upcoming 'Digital Asset Basic Act,' expected to be finalized within the next quarter, which covers Korean won-pegged stablecoins and crypto spot ETFs, may have a greater impact than this recent opening. Major companies such as Naver could make significant investments, while banks are also advancing initiatives in cross-border remittances and custody services.

Author's roundup of the most anticipated TGEs recently: Brevis, Zama, Tria. $BREV investment eligibility portal is now open (Dec 29 - Jan 3, 6 UTC), Coinbase has been included in the listing roadmap, and buidlpad easter egg details remain undisclosed. Zama will launch auction in about two weeks, OG NFT holders enjoy 5% bonus; Tria will introduce a points system, recommended to get a card and interact with the project. During poor market conditions, use low-cost interactions (e.g., variational, ostium, polymarket) instead of blind trading. rFLR from Flare is now claimable. With so many timelines, the author plans to build a reminder bot.

BONK is positioned as a crypto project combining 'Meme + Utility + TradFi', building a value loop through three moats: infrastructure-wise, BONK fun serves as a dedicated launchpad, with revenue (51%) reinvested into the treasury; at the trading layer, BONKbot/Trade/Swap repurchase and burn BONK via trading fees, creating sustained deflation. The value flywheel is driven by 'repurchase/burn/lock-up': better products → increased trading → accelerated repurchase and burn → reduced circulation and enhanced value → more holding and stronger consensus. In terms of compliance and traditional finance, Bonk, Inc. manages the treasury (BNKK DAT) and has launched an ETP on the Swiss Stock Exchange and a trust product on the U.S. OTCQX, providing compliant access for institutional funds. Overall, BONK has evolved from a 'mascot' into a fully-fledged ecosystem with real cash flow and asset capabilities.

$BONK

The article points out that the altcoin market is trapped in a 'low liquidity + high FDV' four-way loss dilemma, with prices collapsing upon unlocking, harming exchanges, token holders, project teams, and venture capitalists alike. Two attempts to break through: Meme coins achieved 100% circulation as a counterattack but most ended up losing money due to lack of screening; MetaDAO strengthened token holder rights but failed due to misaligned founder incentives, unlimited token issuance, and difficulty listing. Over the next 12 months, the market will digest the supply shock from the previous round of fundraising, and afterward, conditions may improve due to valuation normalization and reduced supply. However, the 'lemon market' risk lies in high-quality teams shifting toward equity models. The author still sees strong potential in tokens' strategic advantages and growth, advocating for KPI-based unlocking, transparent governance, balanced responsibilities, selective token issuance, and strict screening to rebuild equilibrium.

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Powell罕见ly released a video on January 11, accusing the Department of Justice of threatening criminal charges to force the Federal Reserve to comply with Trump's demand for rate cuts, raising concerns about the central bank's independence. The investigation stems from testimony and controversy over fund usage related to the renovation project at the Federal Reserve's headquarters; the Washington prosecutors have opened a case and issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve. Trump denied knowledge and continued to criticize Powell. After the news, stock index futures declined, while gold and silver prices rose, with market bets on holding rates steady in January increasing to 96%. If the investigation escalates, policy could face pressure and inflation risks may rise. Powell faces legal and removal risks, with Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett seen as top contenders to succeed him.

The author reflects on the setbacks in the crypto market in 2025: the strategy of buying on the right side has continuously failed, compounded by leverage leading to account liquidation on October 11. Realized the harsh truth that 'anything above 1 is leverage.' Decided to stop searching for gold in the junkyard, focusing long-term solely on BTC, and scrutinizing narratives and revenues of other projects with stricter standards. Believes the grand narrative of decentralization has reached a阶段性 conclusion, and the market is increasingly resembling a casino. Looking ahead to 2026, will shift focus to more sustainable sectors such as AI, space economy, and robotics in the US and Hong Kong stocks, maintain a defensive stance amid geopolitical risks, pay attention to commodities and defense, striving to rebuild with discipline, health, and consistency between knowledge and action.

Musk predicts severe global power shortages in the next two years: the anchor of labor value may shift from currency to 'watts'; China leads in photovoltaic capacity, and the U.S. should accelerate expansion of solar energy; power generation and heat dissipation will determine the limits of AI, and the difficulty of accessing electricity has been underestimated. Sun Yuchuan said the dependency chain from AI → computing power → electricity will trigger unprecedented power shortages, and he has purchased two hydropower stations in Norway. The summary of comments is: electricity will become the 'gold of the future'.

The article uses the custom of placing the fish head toward the main seat at Shandong dining tables as a metaphor, pointing out the emergence of 'Shandong School' in the crypto world: market trends revolve around individual social media presence, with rules taking a back seat, and the key lies in reading personal preferences. When He Yi posted 'I'm f***ing here' at the start of the new year, the community immediately created a meme with the same name, leading to the listing on Binance Alpha, forming a chain of 'He Yi tweets — community creates token — platform lists it.' This process requires no connections or instructions, proving even more subtle and efficient than 'bestie coins.' The author criticizes such an ecosystem that relies on personal networks and information asymmetry rather than technology and innovation, where sycophants succeed more easily than doers, signaling the industry's decline. Even if the person involved doesn't participate, the atmosphere itself causes the 'fish head' to turn on its own.

$BTC $ETH #巨鲸动向

Spout Finance believes that on-chain real-world assets must achieve T+0 instant settlement: it eliminates the window between execution and finality, reduces counterparty risk, avoids liquidity fragmentation caused by funds in transit, and minimizes operational friction such as reconciliation, enabling capital to be combined in real time. Reliable T+0 requires infrastructure with high throughput, low latency, and deterministic execution, which is why they chose Solana and Solayer, focusing on modular execution and high stability and availability to support real financial activities such as stock-backed and equity-backed stable liquidity.

#美国非农数据低于预期 $BTC $ETH