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Bitcoin made history in 2025 by closing its third year in the red for the first time in 14 years, shaking up its long-standing 4-year cycle and sparking debate among analysts.

Some believed a “super cycle” was emerging, while others thought Bitcoin had topped and a bear market was ahead.

CZ’s tweet, “Super Cycle incoming,” added fuel to the fire. He believed that Bitcoin’s future could be reshaped by institutional buying, especially with Wells Fargo’s recent $383 million Bitcoin purchase.

2 factors pushing Bitcoin ahead
Amid growing market uncertainty, Wells Fargo made headlines with its $383 million Bitcoin purchase in January 2026. This institutional move showed strong support for Bitcoin despite recent declines.

CZ retweeted the news, emphasizing that while retail investors were selling off, institutions like Wells Fargo were loading up on Bitcoin.

“While you were panic selling, U.S. banks were loading up on Bitcoin,”
he said, reflecting his continued optimism for Bitcoin’s growth.
Additionally, CZ saw the U.S. SEC’s decision to remove crypto from its 2026 priority risk list as a bullish signal, reinforcing his belief that Bitcoin [BTC] was entering a super cycle.

This contrasted with those who argued that Bitcoin had peaked and was headed for a bear market.

Is Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle broken?
Bitcoin’s 2025 red close made many question the stability of its 14-year cycle.

Historically, Bitcoin’s cycle has been marked by halvings followed by rallies and corrections. Yet, 2025 closed in red, leaving some to wonder whether the cycle was still valid.

CryptoFlow, however, argued that Bitcoin’s long-term pattern remained intact. They noted that previous cycles had followed a consistent 35-month trend from cycle bottom to cycle top.

This could still hold, with the next cycle low possibly coming in October 2026.

Bitcoin ETFs played a pivotal role as institutional interest grew through these products, potentially influencing Bitcoin’s dynamics beyond the traditional cycle.

What’s next for Bitcoin in 2026?
Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture. 2026 is set to usher in a 5-year super cycle driven by institutional adoption, increased ETF inflows, and extreme demand.

These factors could reshape Bitcoin’s future, but the coming months will determine its trajectory.

Final Thoughts
The 4-year cycle that Bitcoin has followed for over 14 years faces new challenges with growing institutional involvement.
2026 may mark the start of a new growth phase, potentially reshaping Bitcoin’s future.
$BTC $BNB #USNonFarmPayrollReport #CPIWatch #USJobsData

TRON (TRX) continues to demonstrate strong long-term fundamentals and a technically bullish market structure. As one of the leading blockchain networks for stablecoin settlement, TRON has cemented its position as a high-utility protocol, particularly for USDT transfers, which dominate its weekly transaction volume.

Beyond transaction dominance, TRON’s fee burn mechanism, rising staking participation, and growing real-world adoption are reinforcing its value proposition. Recently, digital payments platform Wirex announced a fully on-chain payment layer built on TRON, aimed at enabling seamless everyday spending—another signal of expanding ecosystem utility.

But despite these positives, price action shows that $0.30 remains a critical inflection point.

Weekly Chart Analysis: Bullish Structure Remains Intact

On the 1-week timeframe, TRX continues to hold a bullish swing structure.

The rally from March to August pushed price from $0.21 to $0.37

A corrective pullback later in the year respected the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.272

This level acted as a strong support zone, from which price rebounded decisively

Momentum indicators support the bullish outlook:

On-Balance Volume (OBV) has steadily risen since November, signaling sustained buying pressure

Weekly RSI near 51 suggests a momentum shift in favor of buyers after a period of consolidation

These signals collectively suggest that long-term traders still have the trend on their side.

Why TRON Isn’t Ready to Break Out Just Yet

Despite the bullish structure, traders must remain cautious in the short term.

The $0.30 level is not only a psychological resistance but also a historical supply zone, where sellers stepped in aggressively during early November.

TRX briefly pushed to $0.3025 on January 10

Price was rejected and slipped back to around $0.299

This rejection indicates that sellers are still defending this zone

Adding to the uncertainty is Bitcoin’s stalled momentum. If BTC revisits levels below $89,000, broader market weakness could spill over into altcoins, including TRX.

Trader’s Call to Action: Buy the Breakout, Not the Resistance

On the 1-day chart, the $0.3012 level represents a key swing high from early November.

Given:

A bullish weekly structure

A sustained lower-timeframe uptrend since mid-December

Increasing volume support
The optimal strategy is patience.

👉 Traders may look for:
A daily close above $0.3012
Followed by a successful retest as support

Bullish Targets
$0.324
$0.347

Invalidation Level
A sustained drop below $0.29 would weaken the bullish thesis and suggest further consolidation or downside.

Final Thoughts
TRON continues to show strength both fundamentally and technically. Its role as a stablecoin settlement leader, combined with increasing real-world adoption, strengthens its long-term outlook.
However, $0.30 is the gateway to continuation. A clean breakout above this level could unlock the next bullish leg, while repeated rejections may delay upside momentum.
In this market environment, confirmation matters more than anticipation.
#USTradeDeficitShrink #ZTCBinanceTGE #USJobsData #CryptoMarketAnalysis

Why Washington Panics Over Taiwan—and What TSMC Really Means for Global Power

#加密市场观察 | $币安人生

Vice President Vance of the Trump administration recently spoke with unusual bluntness:
👉 If mainland China reclaims Taiwan, the United States could face an economic depression.

Why such fear?

The answer boils down to two things:
🛰️ Missiles and
💾 Chips

On the surface, these seem unrelated—one military, one economic. In reality, they are tightly interwoven into a single strategic net designed to bind Taiwan through both security dependence and industrial extraction.

🧠 The Real Core Issue Isn’t Taiwan — It’s TSMC

The panic in Washington has little to do with Taiwan itself.
The real nerve center is TSMC, the world’s most critical semiconductor manufacturer.

For decades, the U.S. prioritized finance and virtual economies while hollowing out real manufacturing. Semiconductor production was no exception.

📉 Once producing 37% of the world’s chips, the U.S. now accounts for only 12%.
🌏 The rest is concentrated in East Asia—Taiwan alone holds 22% of global capacity, almost all of it at the cutting edge.

Today, the U.S.:
Has no operational 7nm fab
Has zero 5nm or 3nm mass production
Fully relies on TSMC for advanced chips used in:
Smartphones
Artificial intelligence
Missile radar systems
Military electronics

Although U.S. chip firms dominate 47% of global sales, a shocking 88% of their designs are manufactured overseas—with TSMC as the irreplaceable backbone.

Handing over chip design without owning production is like giving your heart to someone else to keep alive.

⚠️ What Happens If China Reclaims Taiwan?

If Taiwan returns to China, TSMC naturally becomes a Chinese enterprise.
At that point, U.S. access to advanced chips would be severely constrained.
This isn’t about delayed shipments—it’s about systemic collapse.

Building an advanced wafer fab:
Costs $10+ billion
Takes 3–5 years
Has no guarantee of usable yield
Even money can’t buy time or expertise.

🏭 CHIPS Act: Too Little, Too Late

The U.S. talks loudly about reshoring manufacturing, but reality tells a different story:
CHIPS Act subsidies are slow and incomplete

TSMC’s U.S. fab:
Delayed repeatedly
First phase now uncertain until 2025
Second facility pushed beyond 2027

Construction in the U.S.:
Takes twice as long
Costs 30–50% more
Lacks skilled labor and a full supply chain

This is why Washington knows there is no short-term alternative to TSMC.

💰 Economic Extraction Disguised as Partnership

U.S. pressure on TSMC—joint ventures, forced investment, talent transfer—has one core objective:
👉 Extract Taiwan’s industrial heart.

TSMC’s total assets are just over $200 billion, yet Trump demanded $200 billion in U.S. investment—a demand that looks less like cooperation and more like industrial plunder.

Taiwan’s dependence is extreme:
20% of GDP
40% of exports
10% of total electricity consumption

An entire economy orbiting one company.

🛰️ Missiles on One Hand, Chips on the Other

Militarily:
Patriot missiles are sold as “defense”
In reality, Taiwan is turned into a frontline containment outpost
Pressure to raise defense spending from 2.5% to 3% of GDP
Forced purchases of aging U.S. weapons

Economically:
High-end chip capacity is siphoned off

Taiwan pays two protection fees:
1. Industrial fee – moving the “Mountain God” (TSMC) to the U.S.

2. Military fee – buying America’s “security promise”

📉 Why the U.S. Fears Economic Depression

The truth is simple:
America’s hegemonic foundation is fragile.

High-tech dominance is the backbone of U.S. power—and TSMC is the nerve center of that backbone.

Without TSMC:
Automakers stall
Defense systems fail
AI development freezes

Boston Consulting estimates that tech decoupling would cost:

18% market share
$37 billion in revenue
10,000+ high-skill jobs

And that’s only the beginning.

🌏 Reality vs. Hegemonic Illusion

Even if TSMC builds in the U.S.:
Core technologies remain in Asia
Supply chains stay regional
Costs stay uncompetitive

Meanwhile, China’s chip capacity continues rising and is projected to reach 24% of global output.

The more the U.S. tightens its grip, the more its weaknesses are exposed.

If it truly had confidence:

Why cling so desperately to TSMC?

Why fear Taiwan’s reunification?

Why weaponize both missiles and microchips?

🔚 Final Thought

Vance’s words unintentionally reveal the truth of modern hegemony:
Treating territories as chess pieces and industries as hostages.

Taiwan is part of China.
TSMC is ultimately a Chinese industry.

A net woven from missiles and chips may look strong—but it is fragile, contradictory, and unsustainable.

And history shows: illusions of dominance always break first.

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