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#加密市场观察 $币安人生 The Vice President of the Trump administration spoke frankly: if mainland China recovers Taiwan, the United States will face an economic depression. And what's the solution? One is missiles, the other is chips. Patriot missiles ensure 'security,' while TSMC chips ensure 'economy.' On the surface, these are two separate lines, but in reality, they form a single web—a strategic net tightly binding Taiwan through both economic and military interdependence.

So why does the U.S. panic about economic depression if China reclaims Taiwan? The core isn't Taiwan's value—it's that Taiwan holds the key to the U.S. high-tech industry: TSMC.
For decades, the U.S. has focused exclusively on finance and virtual economies, offshoring real manufacturing. Chip manufacturing, in particular, has been hollowed out completely.
In the past, the U.S. could produce 37% of the world's chips, but now it's down to just 12%. The rest is concentrated in East Asia—Taiwan alone accounts for 22% of global capacity, and all of it is top-tier.
The U.S. doesn't even have a single 7nm fabrication plant, let alone advanced 5nm or 3nm facilities—precisely the technologies that power smartphones, artificial intelligence, and missile radars, all of which depend entirely on TSMC for production.
U.S. chip companies may look strong, holding 47% of global sales, but 88% of their designed chips are manufactured overseas. TSMC is their most indispensable foundry—like handing their 'heart' to someone else.
If China reclaims Taiwan, TSMC naturally becomes a Chinese enterprise, and the U.S. will find it much harder to access advanced chips.
This isn't just about losing a few shipments—it would choke off the entire U.S. high-tech industry. Chips aren't something you can manufacture in any random factory. Building the most advanced wafer fab requires over $10 billion in investment and three years to come online. Even if built, there's no guarantee the chips produced will be of acceptable quality.
For years, the U.S. has been shouting about revitalizing domestic manufacturing. Biden signed the CHIPS Act offering subsidies, but the funds haven't even been distributed yet. TSMC's factory construction in the U.S. has been repeatedly delayed—originally slated for completion next year, now pushed to 2025 with no certainty, and the second facility won't even start until after 2027.
It's not that TSMC doesn't want to build—it's that the U.S. lacks enough skilled workers and cannot assemble a complete supply chain. Construction takes twice as long as in Taiwan, and costs 30% to 50% more, making it impossible to compete with Asian production capacity.
The U.S. knows full well that in the short term, there's no viable alternative to TSMC. Their attempts to form joint ventures with TSMC, force additional investments, and even have Taiwan train American workers all come down to one goal: seizing TSMC's technology and production capacity.
TSMC's total assets are just over $200 billion, yet Trump demanded $200 billion in investment—this is nothing short of robbery.
Taiwan is so deeply dependent on TSMC that this single company accounts for 20% of Taiwan's GDP, 40% of its exports, and consumes 10% of the island's power generation. Other industries have been squeezed out of any room to survive.
Regardless, the U.S. only focuses on pulling TSMC into its own orbit—threatening tariffs, offering subsidies—essentially treating Taiwan as a tool to extract industrial value.
At this point, it's clear that Vance's talk of missiles and chips reveals two cards that are actually interwoven into a single net.
Military-wise, they deploy Patriot missiles, claiming it's for security—but really, it turns Taiwan into a frontline outpost to contain China, pressuring Taiwan to buy outdated U.S. weapons and raising defense spending from 2.5% to 3% of GDP, which still isn't enough.
Economically, they hold TSMC in their grip—extracting high-end production capacity while forcing Taiwan to invest real money in the U.S., effectively making Taiwan pay two 'protection fees': one for industry, relocating the 'Mountain God' to America; another for military, buying America's 'security promise'.
The DPP authorities are complicit, claiming TSMC's move to the U.S. is voluntary, then immediately helping the U.S. build tech parks and train workers—effectively handing over Taiwan's entire economic foundation.
The U.S. fears economic depression because it knows its hegemonic foundation is shaky. High-tech industries are the core of America's global dominance, and TSMC is the vital nerve center of that core.
Without TSMC's chip supply, the U.S. automotive industry, defense sector, and artificial intelligence fields would all come to a standstill. Boston Consulting has already calculated that if the U.S. decouples from China technologically, semiconductor companies would lose 18% of market share, $37 billion in revenue, and over 10,000 high-skilled jobs.
This is just the direct loss—downstream chain reactions would be even more alarming. Cars can't be built, phones can't be updated, missiles lack core components. These disruptions would spread through the economy, inevitably leading to recession.
But the U.S. has never considered that tying Taiwan to its war machine and living off the exploitation of others' industries is unsustainable.
Even if TSMC builds factories in the U.S., its core technologies and supply chains remain in Asia. Meanwhile, China's chip production capacity is rapidly rising and is expected to reach 24% of global output soon.
The more the U.S. tries to control Taiwan through military and economic entanglement, the more it exposes its own weakness. If it truly had confidence, why would it cling so tightly to others' industries? If it could truly manufacture advanced chips, why fear China reclaiming Taiwan?
Ultimately, Vance's words expose the logic of hegemony: treating other nations' territories as chess pieces and their industries as hostages. Having caused crises through hollowing out its own industries, the U.S. then blames others for defending their sovereignty.
Taiwan is part of China, and TSMC is ultimately a Chinese industry. The U.S. trying to survive by tying Taiwan to its fate is simply a miscalculation.
This net, woven from missiles and chips, may look strong, but it's fragile—because it contradicts reality and cannot sustain America's hegemonic illusion.

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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted cryptocurrency transactions amounting to over $2 billion. The primary objective of these operations was to circumvent international sanctions and fund cybercriminal activities. Such data is presented in a report by the analytics company Chainalysis.
Experts note that the actual figure could be significantly higher. The current estimate accounts only for addresses that have officially been included in U.S. sanction lists. The situation with Iran reflects a global trend of exponential growth in illicit transactions. Russia and North Korea are also key drivers of this phenomenon.
Record volume of the shadow market for digital assets
In 2025, crime levels in the cryptocurrency sphere reached unprecedented scales. According to Chainalysis statistics, the volume of illegal operations increased by 162% compared to the previous year. In monetary terms, the figure amounted to at least $154 billion.
Jurisdictions under sanctions have significantly expanded the use of digital currencies. This has become the primary tool for overcoming financial barriers.
In the case of Iran, active operations were carried out by proxy groups. Organizations recognized as terrorist in several countries, including Hezbollah and Hamas, are increasingly using crypto assets. Digital tools are used for cross-border transfers and subsequent cashing out of funds.
However, the Middle East region was not the only source of growth in the shadow economy. Russia ranked first in volume of illegal activity in the blockchain.
The trend intensified after the launch of the state-backed stablecoin A7A5, pegged to the ruble. The total transaction volume with the new asset reached $93 billion. It was this factor that caused nearly a sevenfold increase in the activity of sanctioned legal entities.
North Korea hacker attacks and evolution of criminal networks
North Korea continues to remain one of the main threats in cyberspace. The past year was the most destructive in the history of observations. North Korean hackers not only increased the amounts stolen but also refined their attack methods.
Stolen funds continue to pose serious risks to the ecosystem. Hackers linked to Pyongyang are responsible for theft of approximately $2 billion. Moreover, they have significantly complicated the schemes for legitimizing illicit proceeds.
At the same time, China has introduced unexpected changes to the landscape of criminal activity.
Link between digital assets and physical violence
The Chainalysis report, published on Thursday, highlights Chinese money laundering networks (CMLN). In 2025, these structures became the dominant force on the black market.
Organized groups have accelerated the diversification and professionalization of crimes in the blockchain space. They now offer specialized services such as 'money laundering as a service.' Additionally, criminals provide support for the necessary infrastructure.
Based on models similar to Huione Guarantee, these networks have evolved into fully-fledged criminal enterprises. They serve fraudulent schemes, assist in evading sanctions, and fund terrorism. Furthermore, they process proceeds from North Korean hacker attacks.
Analysts highlight a concerning trend: the growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and violent crimes. The company identified direct links between blockchain activity and cases of human trafficking as well as physical coercion.
Chainalysis clarifies that the share of illegal transactions in the overall market remains small. Nevertheless, the issue of safeguarding security and integrity of the ecosystem has become critically important.

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Last Friday, the world woke up to news that U.S. forces had captured Venezuelan President Maduro — a move that shocked geopolitics and markets alike. Now on another Friday night, President Donald Trump made another major announcement telling credit card company leaders that he wants to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year starting Jan. 20 — slashing what many Americans pay on high‑interest debt.
This isn’t just a routine policy idea — it’s a highly aggressive economic proposal aimed at huge financial institutions that often charge 20 %–30 % or more on credit cards. Trump said this caps the “rip‑offs” consumers face and is meant to make credit more affordable. The announcement came suddenly, late at night, and sent banks and CEOs scrambling, because enforcing a 10 % cap — without congressional approval — would be historically unprecedented.
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• If put into effect, a 10 % cap would cut interest paid by millions, but also force credit card issuers to rethink how they lend, potentially limiting access to credit for many borrowers.
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US President Donald Trump on Friday (local time) held a meeting with oil industry leaders at the White House, pressing them to commit to large-scale investment to tap into Venezuela’s vast petroleum reserves following recent US military action in the Latin American nation.

Calling the meeting “great," the US President said they “sort of formed a deal" which would bring an investment of billions of dollars, a move he claimed would benefit both the US and Venezuela through increased energy production and lower oil prices.

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President Donald Trump declined to say in an interview Thursday if he spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin after the United States seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the Atlantic Ocean.
“I don’t want to say that but the fact is that the Russian ships — there was a submarine and a destroyer — they both left very quickly when we arrived and we took over the ship and the oil is being unloaded right now,” the president told Fox News when asked if he had spoken to his Russian counterpart.
US forces boarded and seized the tanker on Wednesday after a weekslong chase on the high seas that has escalated tensions with Moscow and piled further pressure on its ally Venezuela. Although Trump claimed oil is being unloaded from the ship, the vessel was not carrying any oil when it was seized, according to analytics firm Kpler, in contrast with other tankers successfully intercepted by the US Coast Guard in recent weeks.
The aging, rusting tanker, originally called the Bella 1, was sanctioned by the US in 2024 for operating within a “shadow fleet” of tankers transporting illicit Iranian oil. Last month the US Coast Guard attempted to seize the vessel while it was heading to Venezuela to pick up oil, then operating under the flag of Guyana. But the ship’s crew refused to be boarded and made an abrupt turn into the Atlantic.
The Bella 1’s crew later painted a Russian flag on its side, and it appeared in a Russian shipping register under a new name, the Marinera.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed risks of a confrontation with Russia when asked about the seizure earlier this week, arguing Trump maintains a good relationship with Putin.
CNN’s Lex Harvey contributed to this report.