RubyLee
Mình đã bước sang năm thứ 8 tham gia thị trường. Cũng không phải nhà đầu tư giỏi, chỉ là có nhiều kinh nghiệm chút thôi. Vẫn đang học hỏi và tiến bộ mỗi ngày.
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I have changed my investment perspective for this year. Because the January candle closed very poorly, I have completely dismissed the possibility of the market experiencing a weekly rebound.
Top coins have broken through strong support, notably $SOL has completed a head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart, $AAVE has broken through the diagonal trendline with the monthly candle, $LINK has broken through the 11.7-12$ zone. Therefore, there is no weekly rebound here at all. From the February 2026 monthly candle onward, there will only be a rise to retest the already broken strong support before looking for a new bottom.
Combining with my horoscope, from January 19, 2026, to March 18, 2026, is a difficult time for me to make money. From March 19, 2026, to June 14, 2026, is the time when I can easily make money. In the past, when I analyzed by month and year, the times I could easily make money according to my horoscope always coincided with uptrend periods or rebounds, while difficult times corresponded to years and months of downtrends. (because this is my main profession)
I believe that the market will continue to decline until nearly the end of this first quarter, and it may even create a long-term bottom in this first quarter. The second quarter will be a time of price increase, potentially a rebound. Thus, the 6-month candle for the first half of the year will be a long-legged candle. The third quarter will likely be the time when the entire market creates a long-term bottom (or retests the long-term bottom created in the first quarter to form a double bottom pattern). After that, the market will enter a real uptrend.
During this downtrend season, I think top coins will die in droves. This will be a very catastrophic coin cleansing season.
For hold coins, temporarily there is none on my list that closed the last month's candle beautifully enough to confirm exiting the downtrend. So I will wait a bit longer.
Top coins have broken through strong support, notably $SOL has completed a head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart, $AAVE has broken through the diagonal trendline with the monthly candle, $LINK has broken through the 11.7-12$ zone. Therefore, there is no weekly rebound here at all. From the February 2026 monthly candle onward, there will only be a rise to retest the already broken strong support before looking for a new bottom.
Combining with my horoscope, from January 19, 2026, to March 18, 2026, is a difficult time for me to make money. From March 19, 2026, to June 14, 2026, is the time when I can easily make money. In the past, when I analyzed by month and year, the times I could easily make money according to my horoscope always coincided with uptrend periods or rebounds, while difficult times corresponded to years and months of downtrends. (because this is my main profession)
I believe that the market will continue to decline until nearly the end of this first quarter, and it may even create a long-term bottom in this first quarter. The second quarter will be a time of price increase, potentially a rebound. Thus, the 6-month candle for the first half of the year will be a long-legged candle. The third quarter will likely be the time when the entire market creates a long-term bottom (or retests the long-term bottom created in the first quarter to form a double bottom pattern). After that, the market will enter a real uptrend.
During this downtrend season, I think top coins will die in droves. This will be a very catastrophic coin cleansing season.
For hold coins, temporarily there is none on my list that closed the last month's candle beautifully enough to confirm exiting the downtrend. So I will wait a bit longer.
Summary of the investment perspective for this year based on my technical analysis from the first half of the year.
Just like before, this year is a year of downtrend. $BTC and top coins will hit the bottom by the end of Q2 or the beginning of Q3 this year. Currently, it is a corrective wave on a weekly timeframe from the beginning of the year. Therefore, I will not buy and hold. At least there must be signs of a bottom being formed and the entire market stabilizing before I consider buying and holding.
However, it is not that there are no opportunities to buy and hold coins in the first half of this year. Although 99% of altcoin charts have broken their bottoms and the major patterns are completely invalidated. But I think capital will flow from downtrend coins to a few coins that will run in an uptrend.
Regarding new coins, I found $CHZ and $EDU . Both have broken the downtrend pattern and successfully returned to retest on the weekly and monthly frames. #CHZ shows signs of wanting to exit the downtrend on the weekly frame; we just need to wait for this week's candle close to fully confirm it. #EDU successfully retested the weekly and monthly frames, and the indicators on these frames look good. However, it is still running sideways at the bottom in a box. We need to close the weekly candle above the 23 area to confirm the end of the sideways bottom and enter an uptrend.
Regarding stock coins, in my opinion, the anonymous system will still lead this year. Because I use TradingView to look at larger timeframe charts like 3m, 6m, 12m, these coins have all been in a downtrend for 7-8 years and have been in a sideways bottom for 3-4 years now.
Specifically, #ZECUSDT has completed waves 1-2-3, currently running wave 4, still missing the wave 5 increase. #DASH seems about to break out of the downtrend, no signs of completing wave 1 for the 3m timeframe yet.
#zen 's monthly pattern still has not broken, seems like it has not yet run wave 1.
Conclusion: There are a few coins that may run in an uptrend, but the number is very small. The remaining 99% of altcoins will hit rock bottom this year, even including top coins.
Just like before, this year is a year of downtrend. $BTC and top coins will hit the bottom by the end of Q2 or the beginning of Q3 this year. Currently, it is a corrective wave on a weekly timeframe from the beginning of the year. Therefore, I will not buy and hold. At least there must be signs of a bottom being formed and the entire market stabilizing before I consider buying and holding.
However, it is not that there are no opportunities to buy and hold coins in the first half of this year. Although 99% of altcoin charts have broken their bottoms and the major patterns are completely invalidated. But I think capital will flow from downtrend coins to a few coins that will run in an uptrend.
Regarding new coins, I found $CHZ and $EDU . Both have broken the downtrend pattern and successfully returned to retest on the weekly and monthly frames. #CHZ shows signs of wanting to exit the downtrend on the weekly frame; we just need to wait for this week's candle close to fully confirm it. #EDU successfully retested the weekly and monthly frames, and the indicators on these frames look good. However, it is still running sideways at the bottom in a box. We need to close the weekly candle above the 23 area to confirm the end of the sideways bottom and enter an uptrend.
Regarding stock coins, in my opinion, the anonymous system will still lead this year. Because I use TradingView to look at larger timeframe charts like 3m, 6m, 12m, these coins have all been in a downtrend for 7-8 years and have been in a sideways bottom for 3-4 years now.
Specifically, #ZECUSDT has completed waves 1-2-3, currently running wave 4, still missing the wave 5 increase. #DASH seems about to break out of the downtrend, no signs of completing wave 1 for the 3m timeframe yet.
#zen 's monthly pattern still has not broken, seems like it has not yet run wave 1.
Conclusion: There are a few coins that may run in an uptrend, but the number is very small. The remaining 99% of altcoins will hit rock bottom this year, even including top coins.
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Summarizing my January 2026.
I’m a bit lazy but still have to write it. 🤷🤷🤷 Otherwise, how can I look back at my trading diary and analysis later?
This month, I still made a profit because I held #CHZ and still had some good trades.
However, this month my analysis was a bit off 😂😂😂, partly because I was busy cleaning and moving from January 10 until nearly the end of the month. The other part was due to misplaced trust. So, this month I could only get about 65% of the analysis right.
I believed that the market would have a rebound wave on the weekly chart, trusting that the top coins wouldn't break strong support so quickly. I didn’t believe that this season top coins would die in droves. Therefore, even when $BTC broke the temporary uptrend line on the daily chart, I stubbornly refused to change my mind. It wasn’t until it broke 88k that I accepted the fact that there wouldn’t be any rebound wave on the weekly chart here, because the top coins had completely broken through strong support.
I think this was my biggest mistake. Because I wasn’t clear-headed enough when analyzing. Even $BTC had broken the uptrend line and strong support on the weekly chart, isn't it normal for top coins to break through strong support? Most top coins have no practical application, and there aren’t a lot of users, so why can’t they die in droves?? Except for $BTC , all could end up as worthless coins and fade into dust.
I made a very big mistake. That is, my analysis was not entirely based on the actual situation of the price movements. The market operates in its own way, all reflected in indicators and patterns, candle formations. It doesn’t operate on trust or optimistic or pessimistic emotions, etc...
I will have to improve this shortcoming.
I’m a bit lazy but still have to write it. 🤷🤷🤷 Otherwise, how can I look back at my trading diary and analysis later?
This month, I still made a profit because I held #CHZ and still had some good trades.
However, this month my analysis was a bit off 😂😂😂, partly because I was busy cleaning and moving from January 10 until nearly the end of the month. The other part was due to misplaced trust. So, this month I could only get about 65% of the analysis right.
I believed that the market would have a rebound wave on the weekly chart, trusting that the top coins wouldn't break strong support so quickly. I didn’t believe that this season top coins would die in droves. Therefore, even when $BTC broke the temporary uptrend line on the daily chart, I stubbornly refused to change my mind. It wasn’t until it broke 88k that I accepted the fact that there wouldn’t be any rebound wave on the weekly chart here, because the top coins had completely broken through strong support.
I think this was my biggest mistake. Because I wasn’t clear-headed enough when analyzing. Even $BTC had broken the uptrend line and strong support on the weekly chart, isn't it normal for top coins to break through strong support? Most top coins have no practical application, and there aren’t a lot of users, so why can’t they die in droves?? Except for $BTC , all could end up as worthless coins and fade into dust.
I made a very big mistake. That is, my analysis was not entirely based on the actual situation of the price movements. The market operates in its own way, all reflected in indicators and patterns, candle formations. It doesn’t operate on trust or optimistic or pessimistic emotions, etc...
I will have to improve this shortcoming.
$BTC and $ETH have had a test rhythm yesterday. Therefore, the coin has also finished the test rhythm.
If the trendline is not broken, it will continue to rise. If the trendline is broken, it will return to sideways in the box again. 🤔🤔🤔
If the trendline is not broken, it will continue to rise. If the trendline is broken, it will return to sideways in the box again. 🤔🤔🤔
Adjusting the h4 frame should have a rhythm around 66-67k for $BTC . $ETH is in the range of 1990-1960 for testing.
The top coin currently at $NEAR has nearly reached the peak of the recovery wave, it can still go up, but I think it's better for those who bought low to take profits. Buying now has a test rhythm at 1.1$, which carries higher risk.
There are still a few coins that haven't surged yet, like #SUİ #LINK #eth #sol , which can still be purchased.
The top coin currently at $NEAR has nearly reached the peak of the recovery wave, it can still go up, but I think it's better for those who bought low to take profits. Buying now has a test rhythm at 1.1$, which carries higher risk.
There are still a few coins that haven't surged yet, like #SUİ #LINK #eth #sol , which can still be purchased.
Adjusting the h4 frame should have a rhythm around 66-67k for $BTC . $ETH is in the range of 1990-1960 for testing.
The top coin currently at $NEAR has nearly reached the peak of the recovery wave, it can still go up, but I think it's better for those who bought low to take profits. Buying now has a test rhythm at 1.1$, which carries higher risk.
There are still a few coins that haven't surged yet, like #SUİ #LINK #eth #sol , which can still be purchased.
The top coin currently at $NEAR has nearly reached the peak of the recovery wave, it can still go up, but I think it's better for those who bought low to take profits. Buying now has a test rhythm at 1.1$, which carries higher risk.
There are still a few coins that haven't surged yet, like #SUİ #LINK #eth #sol , which can still be purchased.
$ETH the market has recovered to 1944$, higher than my analysis. But basically, I see that it has fully recovered
This section is to see if it can break the 1950 area to continue up or not.
Basically, I believe it will continue to decrease, but who knows 😂😂😂
This section is still worth trading. Only when it breaks out of the sideways area can we consider further.
This section is to see if it can break the 1950 area to continue up or not.
Basically, I believe it will continue to decrease, but who knows 😂😂😂
This section is still worth trading. Only when it breaks out of the sideways area can we consider further.
$ETH support zone 1930 using daily candles. The 3D candle this morning closed not beautifully.
The h12 RSI is at 15, but in the past, the h12 RSI must drop to 6-8 and create 2 bottoms before $ETH can form a bottom.
The RSIStocks indicator on h12 is approaching 0, but has only created a bottom once. This indicator also needs to create 2 bottoms to signal a bottom.
Therefore, the price reduction will not end here, and there will be a rise to test the zone 1910-1930 for the 3D candle and yesterday's daily candle that just closed. After that, it will continue to decrease. It may go down to 1700 to form 2 bottoms or further down to run towards 1550-1650 to create a long-term bottom.
But whatever it is, we still have to wait for clear signs of a bottom from the market.
The h12 RSI is at 15, but in the past, the h12 RSI must drop to 6-8 and create 2 bottoms before $ETH can form a bottom.
The RSIStocks indicator on h12 is approaching 0, but has only created a bottom once. This indicator also needs to create 2 bottoms to signal a bottom.
Therefore, the price reduction will not end here, and there will be a rise to test the zone 1910-1930 for the 3D candle and yesterday's daily candle that just closed. After that, it will continue to decrease. It may go down to 1700 to form 2 bottoms or further down to run towards 1550-1650 to create a long-term bottom.
But whatever it is, we still have to wait for clear signs of a bottom from the market.
$BTC The h1 h2 seems to be creating an inverted cup model.
Finishing the model surely means it will still drop a bit more before recovering. Thus, the wave movement should be similar to yesterday, starting the day with a drop, recovering in the middle of the day, and then dropping again at the end of the day.
Finishing the model surely means it will still drop a bit more before recovering. Thus, the wave movement should be similar to yesterday, starting the day with a drop, recovering in the middle of the day, and then dropping again at the end of the day.
$ETH support zone 1930 using daily candles. The 3D candle this morning closed not beautifully.
The h12 RSI is at 15, but in the past, the h12 RSI must drop to 6-8 and create 2 bottoms before $ETH can form a bottom.
The RSIStocks indicator on h12 is approaching 0, but has only created a bottom once. This indicator also needs to create 2 bottoms to signal a bottom.
Therefore, the price reduction will not end here, and there will be a rise to test the zone 1910-1930 for the 3D candle and yesterday's daily candle that just closed. After that, it will continue to decrease. It may go down to 1700 to form 2 bottoms or further down to run towards 1550-1650 to create a long-term bottom.
But whatever it is, we still have to wait for clear signs of a bottom from the market.
The h12 RSI is at 15, but in the past, the h12 RSI must drop to 6-8 and create 2 bottoms before $ETH can form a bottom.
The RSIStocks indicator on h12 is approaching 0, but has only created a bottom once. This indicator also needs to create 2 bottoms to signal a bottom.
Therefore, the price reduction will not end here, and there will be a rise to test the zone 1910-1930 for the 3D candle and yesterday's daily candle that just closed. After that, it will continue to decrease. It may go down to 1700 to form 2 bottoms or further down to run towards 1550-1650 to create a long-term bottom.
But whatever it is, we still have to wait for clear signs of a bottom from the market.
$BTC gãy vùng 65k5 nên trước mắt sẽ rơi về 60k test đáy lần nữa.
Có thể có nhịp lên test cây nến ngày hôm qua rồi mới rơi tiếp
Có thể có nhịp lên test cây nến ngày hôm qua rồi mới rơi tiếp
Basically, it's still sideways. Most of the time, the price runs within a range. Accumulate waiting for a break or a new bottom.
Similar to last November-December 2025. In the long term, it will definitely continue to decrease, because fundamentally there isn't a solid bottom yet. However, in this segment, I think it's sideways for now and will bounce back first, then decrease again.
Waking up in the morning was a bit surprising, but I only got up at 8:30. At that time, I couldn't enter a trade because the downward momentum had slowed, and I was also in a position where I couldn't identify an entry. The sideways phase is the easiest time to lose money, so I'm also limiting my trades.
Similar to last November-December 2025. In the long term, it will definitely continue to decrease, because fundamentally there isn't a solid bottom yet. However, in this segment, I think it's sideways for now and will bounce back first, then decrease again.
Waking up in the morning was a bit surprising, but I only got up at 8:30. At that time, I couldn't enter a trade because the downward momentum had slowed, and I was also in a position where I couldn't identify an entry. The sideways phase is the easiest time to lose money, so I'm also limiting my trades.
top coins minus some coins break completely like $HBAR $AAVE have run before, most of them are returning to test the recent bottom. Along with that is $BTC break the downtrend line on the H4 timeframe.
It's called a 3-bottom model, and if it breaks, there will be a new bottom. But I think we should stop here. This phase will likely be sideways like in November-December 2025, then in Q2, it will run a rebound wave like in January 2026 to test the quarterly candle.
If it continues to go down here, many top coins will break the last support and end up losing value.
The market running in a small amplitude sideways trend like this makes it a bit difficult to trade. Because the stop loss and take profit ratios are not favorable, leading to a challenge in finding a good entry point.
It's called a 3-bottom model, and if it breaks, there will be a new bottom. But I think we should stop here. This phase will likely be sideways like in November-December 2025, then in Q2, it will run a rebound wave like in January 2026 to test the quarterly candle.
If it continues to go down here, many top coins will break the last support and end up losing value.
The market running in a small amplitude sideways trend like this makes it a bit difficult to trade. Because the stop loss and take profit ratios are not favorable, leading to a challenge in finding a good entry point.
$BTC Along with top coins in general, the daily and 3D candle frames have closed beautifully.
I prioritize gathering top coins like $SUI $NEAR because these coins have not yet completed their recovery wave.
Coins like #hbar and #AAVE #xrp the previous rhythm have almost tested the upper boundary area. It can still increase in this rhythm, but I believe the risks are much higher than other top coins. Therefore, I will not prioritize buying such coins.
I prioritize gathering top coins like $SUI $NEAR because these coins have not yet completed their recovery wave.
Coins like #hbar and #AAVE #xrp the previous rhythm have almost tested the upper boundary area. It can still increase in this rhythm, but I believe the risks are much higher than other top coins. Therefore, I will not prioritize buying such coins.
top coins minus some coins break completely like $HBAR $AAVE have run before, most of them are returning to test the recent bottom. Along with that is $BTC break the downtrend line on the H4 timeframe.
It's called a 3-bottom model, and if it breaks, there will be a new bottom. But I think we should stop here. This phase will likely be sideways like in November-December 2025, then in Q2, it will run a rebound wave like in January 2026 to test the quarterly candle.
If it continues to go down here, many top coins will break the last support and end up losing value.
The market running in a small amplitude sideways trend like this makes it a bit difficult to trade. Because the stop loss and take profit ratios are not favorable, leading to a challenge in finding a good entry point.
It's called a 3-bottom model, and if it breaks, there will be a new bottom. But I think we should stop here. This phase will likely be sideways like in November-December 2025, then in Q2, it will run a rebound wave like in January 2026 to test the quarterly candle.
If it continues to go down here, many top coins will break the last support and end up losing value.
The market running in a small amplitude sideways trend like this makes it a bit difficult to trade. Because the stop loss and take profit ratios are not favorable, leading to a challenge in finding a good entry point.
See translation
Chắc vẫn còn tăng lên được đấy. Nhưng mình cảm thấy đủ thì chốt lãi thôi. Dù sao thì đa phần coin top đang chạm neckline của mô hình vai đầu vai đã hoàn thiện trước đây.
Thị trường chạy kiểu sideway này thì không nên kì vọng lợi nhuận quá nhiều.
Đợi sáng ngày mai đóng nến D và 3D xem sao. Nếu đóng đẹp mình sẽ mua gom coin top khi backtest.
Thị trường chạy kiểu sideway này thì không nên kì vọng lợi nhuận quá nhiều.
Đợi sáng ngày mai đóng nến D và 3D xem sao. Nếu đóng đẹp mình sẽ mua gom coin top khi backtest.
top coins minus some coins break completely like $HBAR $AAVE have run before, most of them are returning to test the recent bottom. Along with that is $BTC break the downtrend line on the H4 timeframe.
It's called a 3-bottom model, and if it breaks, there will be a new bottom. But I think we should stop here. This phase will likely be sideways like in November-December 2025, then in Q2, it will run a rebound wave like in January 2026 to test the quarterly candle.
If it continues to go down here, many top coins will break the last support and end up losing value.
The market running in a small amplitude sideways trend like this makes it a bit difficult to trade. Because the stop loss and take profit ratios are not favorable, leading to a challenge in finding a good entry point.
It's called a 3-bottom model, and if it breaks, there will be a new bottom. But I think we should stop here. This phase will likely be sideways like in November-December 2025, then in Q2, it will run a rebound wave like in January 2026 to test the quarterly candle.
If it continues to go down here, many top coins will break the last support and end up losing value.
The market running in a small amplitude sideways trend like this makes it a bit difficult to trade. Because the stop loss and take profit ratios are not favorable, leading to a challenge in finding a good entry point.
I also want to short, but the market is moving too slowly now. Prices are dropping, but it's in a sideways manner 😂😂😂
Every day, the top coins have a range of only 5-6%, making it not easy to have a reasonable R:R. Therefore, I have to be more precise to enter the orders.
Every day, the top coins have a range of only 5-6%, making it not easy to have a reasonable R:R. Therefore, I have to be more precise to enter the orders.
$SUI $ADA shoulder shoulder frame h2 h4.
To wait for the model to be completed, retest the short order.
The top coin has broken the trendline in the h4 frame already. They all went to test but did not succeed. $BTC is the same.
So I believe that the coins will return to the previous bottom area again. Whether a new bottom is created or not, I do not know yet; I will see if the previous bottom is broken first. But at this time, I personally think it is not advisable to buy. Because the upward momentum is no longer strong, and the indicators show that it wants to decrease further already 🤔🤔🤔
To wait for the model to be completed, retest the short order.
The top coin has broken the trendline in the h4 frame already. They all went to test but did not succeed. $BTC is the same.
So I believe that the coins will return to the previous bottom area again. Whether a new bottom is created or not, I do not know yet; I will see if the previous bottom is broken first. But at this time, I personally think it is not advisable to buy. Because the upward momentum is no longer strong, and the indicators show that it wants to decrease further already 🤔🤔🤔
$ETH is currently running sideways in the box. Most top coins are the same. The trend will only become clear when the price breaks the box upwards or downwards.
However, generally speaking, they have all broken the trendline on the H4 timeframe, testing multiple times but have not returned yet.
I lean more towards a downward direction. But that doesn't mean I will enter a trade at the current time. Because the trend is not clear, it is not advisable to enter a trade.
However, generally speaking, they have all broken the trendline on the H4 timeframe, testing multiple times but have not returned yet.
I lean more towards a downward direction. But that doesn't mean I will enter a trade at the current time. Because the trend is not clear, it is not advisable to enter a trade.
$LINK broke the uptrend line on H4, tested multiple times without returning.
Therefore, in the short term, it fell to the level of $8.4
Therefore, in the short term, it fell to the level of $8.4
$BTC The trendline has been broken on the H4 frame when connecting the 60k candle wicks. Currently falling back to the support trendline drawn by the candle body.
If this point breaks, it will surely drop to 63k.
Many top coins have not yet surged. It's unclear whether the market will continue to rebound or create a new bottom. I guess I have to wait until tomorrow's candle closes to find out 🤔🤔🤔
If tomorrow morning's daily candle closes below the trendline, I will wait for the rise to test the daily candle and then stop-loss all purchased coins. Because no matter how beautiful it is, if $BTC breaks, none will surge stably.
If this point breaks, it will surely drop to 63k.
Many top coins have not yet surged. It's unclear whether the market will continue to rebound or create a new bottom. I guess I have to wait until tomorrow's candle closes to find out 🤔🤔🤔
If tomorrow morning's daily candle closes below the trendline, I will wait for the rise to test the daily candle and then stop-loss all purchased coins. Because no matter how beautiful it is, if $BTC breaks, none will surge stably.
Today the market trend is not clear, so I will take a break from trading.
Tomorrow the day after I will continue with technical analysis.
Tomorrow the day after I will continue with technical analysis.
$ETH back to the trendline now.
Let's wait a bit more for it to come back for a test, then we will buy again 🤔🤔🤔
Let's wait a bit more for it to come back for a test, then we will buy again 🤔🤔🤔
$ETH gãy trendline so it will fall to the range of 1879-1900 to test again
I temporarily cut half of the volume I had gathered to wait for DCA down below
I temporarily cut half of the volume I had gathered to wait for DCA down below
$ETH gãy trendline so it will fall to the range of 1879-1900 to test again
I temporarily cut half of the volume I had gathered to wait for DCA down below
I temporarily cut half of the volume I had gathered to wait for DCA down below
$ETH fell too deep, even broke the trendline.
Let's wait a bit more, other top coins like $SUI $NEAR are still fine. Currently, I have finished gathering.
Let's wait a bit more, other top coins like $SUI $NEAR are still fine. Currently, I have finished gathering.
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