You think trading relies on techniques, but in fact, trading relies on 'human'.
Many people ask me, Oupeng, can you teach me a 'sure-win' trading system, can you give me the 'most accurate' indicator? They think the essence of trading is the technique itself. But I must say something from the heart: Techniques are just 'Shu'; what truly determines success or failure is 'human'. You must remember one thing — Among the five levels of Dao, Fa, Shu, Qi, and Ji, 'Qi' is the state, 'Ji' is the tool, 'Shu' is the technique, 'Fa' is the method, and 'Dao' is the essence. And techniques are the easiest to replicate.
We have taken profits! Currently, I only have long positions in ETH and ICP left, and I will take profits on these two after the Spring Festival! Have a good rest, and I wish everyone a Happy Spring Festival! 🎈🎉🎁💰🍻
欧鹏同学
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The live broadcast room opened ETH long position at 1995 + SOL long position at 80.7, plus the TSLA (Tesla) short position opened the night before yesterday at 420, currently holding three positions. $TSLA {future}(TSLAUSDT) $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) $SOL {future}(SOLUSDT)
Tomorrow is New Year's Eve, wishing everyone a Happy Spring Festival! 🧨🧧🎁🎉💗 In the next few days, I won't be watching the market, opening new positions, or live streaming. It's a time for family reunion, so take a good rest to avoid affecting your mood with trading. Let me briefly talk about the ICP that will be opened tonight. Although it is a relatively niche altcoin, it has a characteristic that I really like: fewer spikes, and once the trend starts, the price tends to continue running along the EMA/MA20 moving average. It either moves down along the moving average or steadily goes up along it, with a relatively clear structure, making it easier to execute. I have closed my Tesla short position for profit. Currently, I hold three long positions: $ETH 1995 Long position $SOL 80.7 Long position $ICP 2.466 Long position As long as the structure is not broken and the take profit or stop loss is not triggered, these three positions will be held as medium to long-term trades. See you in the Binance Square live stream after the Spring Festival.
欧鹏同学
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Bullish
The live room opened a long position for ICP 2.466, the last order before the Spring Festival. Current positions held: SOL 80.7 long position, ETH 1995 long position, ICP 2.466 $SOL {future}(SOLUSDT) $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) $ICP {future}(ICPUSDT)
The live room opened a long position for ICP 2.466, the last order before the Spring Festival. Current positions held: SOL 80.7 long position, ETH 1995 long position, ICP 2.466 $SOL $ETH $ICP
欧鹏同学
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The live broadcast room opened ETH long position at 1995 + SOL long position at 80.7, plus the TSLA (Tesla) short position opened the night before yesterday at 420, currently holding three positions. $TSLA {future}(TSLAUSDT) $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) $SOL {future}(SOLUSDT)
Fidelity's latest view: $60,000 may have already been a temporary low. Last week, Bitcoin retraced to $60,000, just hitting the support area previously marked by Fidelity. Compared to past rounds of 'crypto winters', this retracement is relatively mild. Fidelity even proposed a possibility: the extreme bull-bear structure that occurs every four years is gradually maturing. We can understand this from two dimensions. First, liquidity. Bitcoin is highly correlated with the global liquidity cycle. When global money supply contracts, BTC often enters a correction; when liquidity expands, the trend unfolds. Current data is not strongly accommodative, but the global money supply growth rate has begun to stabilize. What does this mean? It means that the liquidity pressure on prices is weakening. Second, structural maturity. Looking back at the past few cycles, a clear change can be observed: The magnitude of each decline is shrinking; The structure of each rise is smoother and more rational; Volatility is gradually compressing. With institutional participation, ETF launches, and clearer compliance paths, Bitcoin is gradually moving from a 'high-volatility speculative asset' to a 'macro risk asset'. Market maturity means: Fewer wild price swings; Longer time dimensions; Trends are more dependent on macro liquidity rather than pure sentiment. If $60,000 indeed becomes a temporary bottom, then what follows may not be a straight reversal, but a period of consolidation with fluctuations. Chip turnover, volatility compression, sentiment repair. $BTC
GM☀️Today is 2.14, wishing everyone a Happy Valentine's Day! Currently holding three positions: short on TSLA, long on ETH and SOL. At the same time, let's take a look at Bitcoin's historical prices on Valentine's Day: 2011: $1 2012: $5 2013: $20 2014: $600 2015: $300 2016: $450 2017: $1,200 2018: $10,000 2019: $3,631 2020: $10,000 2021: $45,000 2022: $42,500 2023: $22,000 2024: $75,000 2025: $95,000 2026: $70,000
欧鹏同学
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SOL and ETH are currently in a clear bearish formation on the daily level, with the 20EMA at the top, followed by the 60EMA, and the 120EMA continuing to apply downward pressure, maintaining a dominant downward trend structure. However, after a continuous acceleration in the decline, the price has already moved significantly away from the 20/60 moving average range, creating a technical rebound demand for mean reversion in the short term. The daily level for SOL has seen a long lower shadow with increased volume near previous lows, forming a repair structure after emotional release in the short term. As long as the lows are not effectively broken, I am more inclined to view the current wave as the starting point of an oversold rebound. According to the dual moving average logic, the first target is not a trend reversal, but a pullback to complete technical repair in the 20EMA and 60EMA zone. My SOL long position was opened at 80.73, with the logic being to bet on a rebound to the mean reversion near the 20/60 moving average range, rather than bottom fishing for a reversal.
ETH has a similar structure, with a clear bearish formation on the daily level, but the price has already moved away from the 20EMA, and momentum indicators are showing signs of stage exhaustion. The long position at 1995 is essentially also betting on a rebound to retest the moving average range. As long as the price does not create new trend lows, a rebound to the 20/60 moving average area is a higher probability path. It is important to emphasize that this is not a trend reversal trade, but a structural rebound in line with mean reversion logic. A true trend reversal must see the 20EMA flatten or even turn upwards, and the price must stand above the 60EMA to confirm. $SOL {future}(SOLUSDT) $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
SOL and ETH are currently in a clear bearish formation on the daily level, with the 20EMA at the top, followed by the 60EMA, and the 120EMA continuing to apply downward pressure, maintaining a dominant downward trend structure. However, after a continuous acceleration in the decline, the price has already moved significantly away from the 20/60 moving average range, creating a technical rebound demand for mean reversion in the short term. The daily level for SOL has seen a long lower shadow with increased volume near previous lows, forming a repair structure after emotional release in the short term. As long as the lows are not effectively broken, I am more inclined to view the current wave as the starting point of an oversold rebound. According to the dual moving average logic, the first target is not a trend reversal, but a pullback to complete technical repair in the 20EMA and 60EMA zone. My SOL long position was opened at 80.73, with the logic being to bet on a rebound to the mean reversion near the 20/60 moving average range, rather than bottom fishing for a reversal.
ETH has a similar structure, with a clear bearish formation on the daily level, but the price has already moved away from the 20EMA, and momentum indicators are showing signs of stage exhaustion. The long position at 1995 is essentially also betting on a rebound to retest the moving average range. As long as the price does not create new trend lows, a rebound to the 20/60 moving average area is a higher probability path. It is important to emphasize that this is not a trend reversal trade, but a structural rebound in line with mean reversion logic. A true trend reversal must see the 20EMA flatten or even turn upwards, and the price must stand above the 60EMA to confirm. $SOL $ETH
欧鹏同学
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The live broadcast room opened ETH long position at 1995 + SOL long position at 80.7, plus the TSLA (Tesla) short position opened the night before yesterday at 420, currently holding three positions. $TSLA {future}(TSLAUSDT) $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT) $SOL {future}(SOLUSDT)
The live broadcast room opened ETH long position at 1995 + SOL long position at 80.7, plus the TSLA (Tesla) short position opened the night before yesterday at 420, currently holding three positions. $TSLA $ETH $SOL
欧鹏同学
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Bearish
Tesla $TSLA : In the 8-hour cycle, Tesla's current structure is bearish, and the trend has not yet completed its correction. According to my dual moving average trading system, a standard bearish arrangement has formed at the current 8-hour level. The 20 moving average group operates below the 60 moving average group, which is also positioned below the 120 group, presenting a suppression structure from top to bottom, with an overall downward slope. This arrangement is not oscillatory but rather a trend-type pullback. Throughout the rebound process, the price has consistently failed to effectively stabilize above the 20EMA, and each time it touches the upper edge of the moving average band, it faces suppression, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. The rebound appears more like a correction within the trend rather than a reversal signal. In the dual moving average system, as long as the price cannot return above the 60EMA and bring the 20 group to cross above, the structure will still belong to the bearish dominance. The current state of the moving average dispersion indicates that the trend still has a probability of continuation. The yellow area below is the first and second take-profit levels I have set. The first target is a structural support area, and the second target is a deeper liquidity support area. If the trend continues, these two positions are reasonable profit-taking areas for trend-following trades. Before the structure is corrected, any rebound should be treated as a weak pullback rather than a trend reversal. {future}(TSLAUSDT)
Tesla $TSLA : In the 8-hour cycle, Tesla's current structure is bearish, and the trend has not yet completed its correction. According to my dual moving average trading system, a standard bearish arrangement has formed at the current 8-hour level. The 20 moving average group operates below the 60 moving average group, which is also positioned below the 120 group, presenting a suppression structure from top to bottom, with an overall downward slope. This arrangement is not oscillatory but rather a trend-type pullback. Throughout the rebound process, the price has consistently failed to effectively stabilize above the 20EMA, and each time it touches the upper edge of the moving average band, it faces suppression, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. The rebound appears more like a correction within the trend rather than a reversal signal. In the dual moving average system, as long as the price cannot return above the 60EMA and bring the 20 group to cross above, the structure will still belong to the bearish dominance. The current state of the moving average dispersion indicates that the trend still has a probability of continuation. The yellow area below is the first and second take-profit levels I have set. The first target is a structural support area, and the second target is a deeper liquidity support area. If the trend continues, these two positions are reasonable profit-taking areas for trend-following trades. Before the structure is corrected, any rebound should be treated as a weak pullback rather than a trend reversal.
欧鹏同学
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BCH short position was closed in the morning with a floating loss, replaced with a BNB long position at 615.2. Currently, I have a total of three positions: BNB long position at 615.2; XAU short position at 4949.39 with 5x leverage; TSLA short position at 420.45 with 3x leverage. $TSLA {future}(TSLAUSDT) $BCH {future}(BCHUSDT) $BNB
Extreme fear is often not the beginning of risk, but the end of risk release. Looking back at history: the 2012 crash, the Mt.Gox incident, the 2017-2018 bear market, the pandemic crash, the FTX collapse—each time, market sentiment has plummeted into "extreme fear." At those times, the price of Bitcoin was around $7, $400, $3000, and $15000 respectively. In those moments, everyone thought "this time it's different," as if the world was about to end. But the cycle proves one thing: What is truly destroyed is leverage and emotion, not the network itself. Now, we have returned to the extreme fear range once again. The difference is: The network's computing power is stronger. Institutional funds have deeply participated. ETFs have become a reality. Some sovereign countries have begun participating in mining and reserves. Infrastructure, liquidity, and compliance frameworks far exceed any previous cycle. Extreme fear typically appears at the cyclical low because chips have been washed out, narratives have been shattered, and confidence has been withdrawn. But structurally, Bitcoin has traversed multiple macro shocks, exchange collapses, and liquidity crises. History has never ended because of fear, and Bitcoin has never vanished because of panic. What truly determines the outcome is never extreme emotion, but long-term belief and structural evolution. $BTC
BCH short position was closed in the morning with a floating loss, replaced with a BNB long position at 615.2. Currently, I have a total of three positions: BNB long position at 615.2; XAU short position at 4949.39 with 5x leverage; TSLA short position at 420.45 with 3x leverage. $TSLA $BCH $BNB
欧鹏同学
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Bearish
Continue empty: TSLA opening price 420.45, stop loss 436; XAU opening price 4949.39, stop loss 5010; BCH opening price 498.17, stop loss 530. Just now (February 13, 2026, 00:30) for unknown reasons: spot gold plummeted $200 during the day, spot silver fell 10% during the day, Ethereum fell below $1900, and Bitcoin fell below $66,000. — 📢 Must scold again, BCH is really not human! On 2/12, the U.S. stock market opened and the market rebounded to take profit on ASTER long positions and BCH short positions. At that time, BCH also started to rise, so the short positions were closed, but now it has fallen again... $BCH {future}(BCHUSDT) $XAU {future}(XAUUSDT) $TSLA {future}(TSLAUSDT)
Continue empty: TSLA opening price 420.45, stop loss 436; XAU opening price 4949.39, stop loss 5010; BCH opening price 498.17, stop loss 530. Just now (February 13, 2026, 00:30) for unknown reasons: spot gold plummeted $200 during the day, spot silver fell 10% during the day, Ethereum fell below $1900, and Bitcoin fell below $66,000. — 📢 Must scold again, BCH is really not human! On 2/12, the U.S. stock market opened and the market rebounded to take profit on ASTER long positions and BCH short positions. At that time, BCH also started to rise, so the short positions were closed, but now it has fallen again... $BCH $XAU $TSLA
欧鹏同学
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ASTER and BCH have taken profits😎 I just want to say: BCH performed too poorly this time👎🏻 See you at the Binance Square live at 22:30!
I won't be live streaming tonight as I'll be back late. Tomorrow night (2/13) and the night after tomorrow (2/14) at 10 PM in Binance Square, I'll be taking a break before the Spring Festival long position. See you tomorrow night at 10 PM in the Binance Square live room.
ASTER and BCH have taken profits😎 I just want to say: BCH performed too poorly this time👎🏻 See you at the Binance Square live at 22:30!
欧鹏同学
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Bullish
ASTER 0.66 has entered a long position. Tonight, while chatting about ASTER in the live broadcast room and community, I actually noticed the bullish structure at the 4-hour level, but at that time the price had not broken through the key position, so I chose to wait patiently and did not enter the market early. On Beijing time 2026/2/10 23:40, the price broke through the 0.65 level with increased volume. After confirming the structure, I directly followed up with a small leveraged long position. In the current market environment, my thinking is very simple: leverage should not be too large, and the stop-loss space should be slightly relaxed to increase the margin of error. The focus is on whether the structure continues, rather than short-term fluctuations. This trade is essentially a confirmation trade of the 4H structure, not chasing emotions or betting on news. Next, we will see if the price can be accepted by the market above the breakout area. $ASTER {future}(ASTERUSDT)
The true trading system does not solve for profit, but for survival.
Most people enter the market with only one question in mind: how to earn more. They study strategies to improve their win rate; they optimize methods to expand profits; they review their trades to find the next opportunity to double their investment. All efforts revolve around one goal—profit. But when you stay in the market long enough, you gradually realize one thing: what truly determines whether a trader can go far is not how much they made in a single trade, but whether they can survive in the toughest times. Profit is temporary; survival is long-term.