I will immediately outline the possible variations for Bitcoin that I have discussed in my reviews.
In the case that our growth has ended with a terminal diagonal with the peak of wave 5 at the mark of 126,000, the current movement can fit into 2 models.
Option 1 - a 5-wave structure down, which can be marked as wave A of the cycle, then there would be B and C with movement to 50k and below.
Option 2 - a completed WXY structure, which ends with wave Y in the structure 98 - 69,000.
In both variations, growth from the current point is possible through an entry impulse.
Variation through the plane with a peak at 110,000 from January 2025, and the formation of ABC with the end of wave C in a terminal diagonal, in this case, we have completed 3 waves down, there will be 4 and 5.
In all variations, a rebound, correction, price reversal upwards can be expected, and one must carefully monitor the candle structure on the 4-hour and daily charts.
Indicator data: Replenishment coefficient: 0.00462700%. For BTC, this indicator is positive, but very low. It does not indicate extreme bullish sentiment (which would be >0.02%) or bearish sentiment (@-0.02%). It suggests a relatively balanced, but slightly positive ongoing market sentiment, which during a downtrend may sometimes precede a short-term squeeze or pause, but in itself is not a strong signal against the trend.
$BTC According to market data from CoinAnk Current price: 65265.50 US dollars Change over 24 hours: -3.301% Key support levels: S1=65063.60 USDT, S2=64063.51 USDT, S3=62500.91 USDT. Key resistance levels: R1=67626.30 USDT, R2=69188.90 USDT, R3=70188.99 USDT Current trend: Fluctuating with a bearish bias Detailed explanation:
📊Forecast for the end of 2026, performed using regression analysis method (Provides a general understanding of possible directions. Posted on December 31, 2025):
1st place — 🛢Brent Oil 2-3rd place - 🐖 hogs 4th place — 🇺🇸S&P 500 5th place – 🇪🇺🇺🇸EURUSD Pair 6th place — 🌎Bitcoin 7th place — 🥇Gold
➖Трендовый канал от 6 октября 2025 года 📉нисходящий. Котировки находятся в его нижней части. Корректируются от трендовой средней. Пространства для 📉снижения немного меньше, чем для 📈роста.
➖Действует 📉нисходящая ценовая модель с уже выполненными базовой целью $89 000 — 99 000 и экстремальной на $53 000 — 63 000.
➖Цены снова ударились в промежуточное сопротивление $69 000 — 71 000. Но пробиться выше не удалось.
➖Закреп выше $71 000 резко повысит вероятность 📈роста к следующему уровню $79 000 — 81 000.
➖В случае 📉закрепа ниже $63 000, следующий уровень поддержки на $53 000. Здесь трендовая поддержка. Пробиться ниже сложно.
📩🇯🇵Japan — Core CPI in Tokyo (Feb) y/y — 🔴worse than the forecast - 📉slowdown from 2.0% to 1.8% - the lowest since October 2024 — the consensus forecast saw 📉a slowdown to 1.7%
📩🇯🇵Industrial production (Jan) m/m — strong 📈growth, but below 🔴expectations - acceleration from -0.1% to 2.2% - the highest since September 2025 - the consensus forecast saw 📈acceleration of growth to 5.5% m/m
📩🇯🇵Retail sales (Jan) y/y — 🟢better than expectations — 📈acceleration from -0.9% to 1.8% - the highest since June 2025 — the consensus forecast saw 📈acceleration only to 0.1%
📢Comment: Despite the significant 📈acceleration of consumer activity and industrial production, one of the most important indicators of price pressure in 🇯🇵Japan 📉fell below the target of 2.0% y/y.
➖This is the ideal picture. It should allow the 🇯🇵🏛Bank of Japan to extend the pause in the cycle of 📈interest rate hikes. Positive for 🇯🇵Japanese stocks. However, the main reason for disinflation may be government subsidies for energy carriers. The regulator needs more data to ensure the sustainability of 📉the downward trend. Otherwise, 📈the rise in interest rates may continue.
📩🇯🇵Japan — Core CPI in Tokyo (Feb) y/y — 🔴worse than the forecast - 📉slowdown from 2.0% to 1.8% - the lowest since October 2024 — the consensus forecast saw 📉a slowdown to 1.7%
📩🇯🇵Industrial production (Jan) m/m — strong 📈growth, but below 🔴expectations - acceleration from -0.1% to 2.2% - the highest since September 2025 - the consensus forecast saw 📈acceleration of growth to 5.5% m/m
📩🇯🇵Retail sales (Jan) y/y — 🟢better than expectations — 📈acceleration from -0.9% to 1.8% - the highest since June 2025 — the consensus forecast saw 📈acceleration only to 0.1%
📢Comment: Despite the significant 📈acceleration of consumer activity and industrial production, one of the most important indicators of price pressure in 🇯🇵Japan 📉fell below the target of 2.0% y/y.
➖This is the ideal picture. It should allow the 🇯🇵🏛Bank of Japan to extend the pause in the cycle of 📈interest rate hikes. Positive for 🇯🇵Japanese stocks. However, the main reason for disinflation may be government subsidies for energy carriers. The regulator needs more data to ensure the sustainability of 📉the downward trend. Otherwise, 📈the rise in interest rates may continue.
📩🇯🇵Japan — Core CPI in Tokyo (Feb) y/y — 🔴worse than the forecast - 📉slowdown from 2.0% to 1.8% - the lowest since October 2024 — the consensus forecast saw 📉a slowdown to 1.7%
📩🇯🇵Industrial production (Jan) m/m — strong 📈growth, but below 🔴expectations - acceleration from -0.1% to 2.2% - the highest since September 2025 - the consensus forecast saw 📈acceleration of growth to 5.5% m/m
📩🇯🇵Retail sales (Jan) y/y — 🟢better than expectations — 📈acceleration from -0.9% to 1.8% - the highest since June 2025 — the consensus forecast saw 📈acceleration only to 0.1%
📢Comment: Despite the significant 📈acceleration of consumer activity and industrial production, one of the most important indicators of price pressure in 🇯🇵Japan 📉fell below the target of 2.0% y/y.
➖This is the ideal picture. It should allow the 🇯🇵🏛Bank of Japan to extend the pause in the cycle of 📈interest rate hikes. Positive for 🇯🇵Japanese stocks. However, the main reason for disinflation may be government subsidies for energy carriers. The regulator needs more data to ensure the sustainability of 📉the downward trend. Otherwise, 📈the rise in interest rates may continue.
It's time to test the 2nd zone at $95, which will be the 2nd target. We might go even higher. The trend has been developing for 10 days, along with its growing structure.