[Why is there no 4-year bull-bear cycle for BTC anymore?]
This needs to talk about the mechanism of BTC. The total amount of BTC is 21 million. Since the creation of BTC (2009).
Every 10 minutes, 1 block is rewarded, and 1 block contains 50 BTC. However, after every 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years), the number of BTC rewarded per block is halved.
Approximately 2.63 million BTC was mined in the first year. About 10 million BTC was mined in the first 4 years.
Starting from the fourth year, because the reward for each block is 'halved', 1 block only rewards 25 BTC. At this time, only 1.3 million BTC is mined each year.
Then in the second four years, a total of 5.2 million BTC was mined.
1. This meme itself is quite popular, not only in the crypto community but also because this year is the Year of the Horse, which naturally lends itself to puns. Combined with Chinese cultural context, this asset has: Chinese elements + Year of the Horse + wordplay puns +++ most importantly, it was promoted by the main traffic driver — a top influencer posted about it, and it was featured on Binance Alpha.
2. The clear opportunity emerged after Binance Alpha featured this meme, sparking widespread backlash. However, this criticism was directed at Binance and its leadership, not the meme itself.
Ironically, this backlash actually boosted the meme's visibility; it also indicates that those who are complaining likely don’t hold any tokens and won’t dump. Therefore, their criticism has no real impact on the asset.
4. Furthermore, the negative comments from many KOLs will inevitably bring massive traffic. This exposure introduces the asset to a large audience. Among them, some may hold tokens, but the majority don’t (since the market cap was still relatively low at the time).
The motivations of these KOLs are limited to two: either they have no holdings and are just venting due to recent losses, or they want others to sell so they can buy at a lower price.
5. Looking further: among the massive traffic, a small portion may sell out of fear (FUD). As a result, the price initially corrected — dropping from around 5M to about 3.6M.
6. However, the token’s distribution is healthy — there were no suspicious addresses accumulating large positions ahead of time to manipulate or dump the price.
Therefore, once those selling due to FUD have exited, and with no malicious actors to cause a complete collapse, the price can recover. During this process, some buyers (like me) will step in, further driving the price upward.
7. As the price rises, more traffic comes in, fueling further price increases. This cycle continues until the current narrative reaches what people perceive as its peak valuation. #我踏马来了 $我踏马来了
The demand for new asset launches in this area is still quite strong.
However, no company with the vision of Binance in the previous round has emerged yet.
Therefore, competition among various platforms continues. Although there are a few leading ones—form pump virtual—but it's not yet a complete monopoly.
If a company can empower its native platform token and focus on user needs, it's highly likely to become a standout player.
In the future, many 'cultural' assets could potentially thrive through such platforms.
The recent intense competition in per also holds potential for exceptional companies. There are opportunities everywhere—just be patient and wait.
1. Today, Binance Alpha launched~"I finally made it." Because everyone thought the name was bad, they were all complaining.
But I know. It's because people have been losing money lately, and their frustration is high.
However, the biggest mistake in investing is "emotion."~And this is an opportunity.
Today I went to try skiing. This news came out before I started skiing.
I only had 1000u worth of Alpha in my phone. I bought in and then placed a limit order to go skiing. When I came back from skiing, the order had been filled. I made a 40% profit.
I'm quite satisfied.
The key isn't making money—it's that the logic has been validated. No emotion. Not carried away by the market.
Grateful. Grateful. Grateful.
2. Last night, Binance launched Binance Life, which surged by over 40% instantly.
But today, it not only retraced, but dropped even further.
Yesterday, I sold 1/3 of my nearly cost-free spot positions.
Everyone knew it would eventually launch, so many were waiting to sell right before launch, setting up early positions. Most likely, it will now come back down.
It's a bit unfortunate that my hedging position was stopped out on both sides two days before the launch. Otherwise, I might have had a small win.
But looking at the results, there are still many strategies in Web3 that offer solid returns. After all, the current rules are still unclear.
But if there is $币安人生 on Binance, the profit from a long position will be very large, but a short position will lose 1600 u.
Did not wait for the announcement. The wear and tear is not significant. Acceptable
But if market sentiment comes, the probability of certain opportunities is very high with good odds, and it is essential to use appropriate methods to earn certain returns.
1. Recently, there's a trade with relatively high certainty—BREV. I did some research, waiting for the airdrop and holder-related selling pressure to subside. I planned to go long on a dip for a short-term play, with a high payoff ratio.
But I didn't do it. The 24-hour return was around 50%.
Do I regret it? Not at all—actually, I'm a bit happy.
Because several times when I picked up my trading phone to act, a voice asked me in that moment: Is this the right thing to do?
No, it isn't.
Because by choosing not to trade—despite the 99% certainty—I rejected the uncertainty of 'trading'.
We're surrounded by too many temptations. And these temptations often come from the 'short term'. But once we focus on the short term, the outcome is usually not good.
Start with the end in mind.
2. Today's Binance new token launch was based on a 5 million FDV. 26.4% circulating supply, with funding around 10 million.
I calculated it would likely yield at least 20x. I decided to participate immediately.
Although the final return was over 30x.
But. But. But. The oversubscription was 1200x, with individual participation amounts under 1.5u. Individual returns were around 35u—pretty average, really.
But if there is $币安人生 on Binance, the profit from a long position will be very large, but a short position will lose 1600 u.
Did not wait for the announcement. The wear and tear is not significant. Acceptable
But if market sentiment comes, the probability of certain opportunities is very high with good odds, and it is essential to use appropriate methods to earn certain returns.