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The model of exchange-traded companies that 'simply hold BTC/ETH' is starting to grate. Mike Novogratz states plainly: if a company doesn't build a real business, merely holding assets will no longer be sufficient, as ETFs have given investors a simpler alternative.
ETFs have eliminated part of the premium that once applied to crypto treasure companies — the market no longer wants to pay extra for mere exposure.
Around 40% of 'bitcoin treasure companies' are now valued below NAV, and Novogratz suggests: short-term buybacks + long-term business development.

Sentiment around ETH on social media is turning heavy again — and according to Santiment, it resembles the situation before the previous strong rally. Paradoxically, it's precisely 'bad sentiment' that often fuels the market when it starts to turn.
Santiment sees similarities between the current sentiment and the period before the big ETH surge in 2025.

The market is caught between a bull and bear phase: fear dominates, but fundamentals and narratives (e.g. staking) remain hot.

Can 'bad sentiment' be bullish?

The Russian Social Fund acknowledges that it is increasingly receiving questions about receiving benefits in cryptocurrencies. It sounds absurd, but it reveals something important: the adoption of digital assets is penetrating even discussions about the pension system.
The Fund has recorded a growing number of inquiries about pensions in crypto and the impact of mining on benefits.

Russia is among the largest crypto markets in Europe, and on-chain activity and DeFi growth are advancing faster than in many countries in the region.
Where does this trend come from, given that benefits are already in rubles?

Monero (XMR) did something few had on their radar: a new all-time high, despite the broader market moving sideways. This looks like more than a random candle — the privacy narrative is once again attracting capital.
XMR broke through ~598 USD and is strongly positive year-to-date.
Demand for privacy coins is growing in the shadow of regulations, cash outflows, and increased control over payments.

Why is XMR rising more strongly than the rest of the market?
The new XMR record is the result of two forces. First: privacy projects already looked relatively defensive by the end of 2025 — during uncertain times, some capital rotates to places where the 'use-case' is clear.

Jerome Powell confirmed that prosecutors are investigating his Senate testimony. Officially, it concerns renovation costs of Fed buildings — unofficially, the question arises: is the White House trying to pressure the central bank?

The investigation concerns Powell's testimony and cost overruns on a renovation project worth approximately $2.5 billion.
Powell suggests political pressure — and the market sees risks to the Fed's independence.
Renovation or pretext? The stakes may be the Fed's independence
Powell stated that the Fed received a subpoena (a major grand jury matter), and the investigation will examine whether the chairman misled senators regarding the scale and costs of renovations to the Washington headquarters.

The founder of CryptoQuant claims X is reducing reach and blocking crypto content instead of targeting bots and spam. The problem is worsening because AI makes 'account factories' cheaper and more effective than ever.
Ki Young Ju talks about 'algorithmic repression' against crypto content following the spam explosion.
Paid verification was meant to filter quality, but — according to critics — enabled bots to 'pay for spam'.

Why doesn't Elon Musk want crypto on X?
Ki Young Ju highlighted the spike in automated activity around crypto hashtags and the number of posts that appear unnatural.

BTC remains above $90,000 despite political tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, an increasing number of technical analysts argue that a pattern is forming on higher timeframes, which often ends in a stronger correction.

Three classic bearish signals appear simultaneously on the weekly and monthly charts.
Even if BTC rebounds to $97,000–$107,000, some analysts still see a scenario of a drop down to around $70,000 (or ~$68,000).
Three red flags on the BTC chart

Just weeks before the deadline, two major industry events in Paris – NFT Paris and RWA Paris 2026 – were canceled. Organizers cite a 'market collapse,' but behind the scenes, a topic no one wants to openly discuss is growing: participant safety.
NFT Paris and RWA Paris 2026 are disappearing from the calendar – organizers failed to close the budget despite cost cuts.

Meanwhile in France, there is a rising wave of brutal crimes against individuals associated with cryptocurrencies, changing the approach to public events.

Sam Bankman-Fried unexpectedly spoke out on the U.S. operation in Venezuela. The former FTX CEO accused liberal media of political hypocrisy and double standards.

• SBF claims the criticism of the U.S. following Maduro's arrest is politically motivated, not legally grounded.

• His statements sparked a debate about the motivations and possible shift in narrative from the former billionaire.
Controversial comment from the former FTX chief

Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of the FTX exchange serving a 25-year sentence for financial fraud, published a series of posts on the X platform addressing the arrest of Nicolás Maduro by the United States.

MSCI decided to delay plans for changes in the classification of companies holding significant cryptocurrency reserves. The decision calmed markets and led to an increase in the stock prices of companies such as Strategy.

• MSCI is not changing the classification rules for companies with significant exposure to cryptocurrencies at this time.

• Strategy's stocks reacted positively, although the topic remains subject to further analysis.
Strategy remains in the indices — at least for now

Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) announced it is postponing plans to reclassify companies whose balance sheets are largely based on digital assets. This means that even if cryptocurrencies make up more than half of a company's assets, it will not be automatically excluded from indices.

Early 2026 brought unprecedented activity in the ether-based ETF market. Record trading volumes coincide with new initiatives from major financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley.

• Spot ETH ETFs recorded the highest trading volumes in history, sustained over several sessions.

• Morgan Stanley filed a proposal for an ETH ETF with the capability to stake part of the assets.
Record ETH ETF volumes
Data from the analytics firm Santiment shows that at the beginning of January, ether-based ETFs achieved historically highest daily trading volumes. Sessions on the 2nd and 5th of January stood out with particularly high activity, second only to a single, unusual spike in August of last year.

BTC closed 2025 in the red, while traditional assets delivered great results. Some commentators argue, however, that shorting bitcoin in 2026 could be an expensive game.
S&P 500 ended 2025 at about +16%. Financial Times
Because Hines warns that 'bearish on 2026' is a bad bet.

Weak finish = potential turning point?
In 2025, sentiment towards BTC cooled, and capital more often chose 'safer' narratives.

At the same time, the US stock market delivered solid results – S&P 500 grew by about 16–16.5%. Financial Times+1

ETH returned above $3,000, but more interesting things are happening under the hood: Ethereum ended the year with a record number of daily transactions and a strong increase in addresses.

On December 31, a record of about 1.87 million transactions per day was set.

The number of active and new addresses is increasing - adoption is not slowing down.
Fundamentals are growing faster than the price.

Market data indicates that on December 31, Ethereum reached about 1.87 million transactions per day, breaking previous peaks from 2021 and 2025.

At the same time, the number of active addresses increased (around 728,000) and the number of new addresses in one day (over 270,000, the highest in years).

Ilya Lichtenstein, associated with the notorious hack on Bitfinex in 2016, announced his early release. He attributes it to the First Step Act reform.

Lichtenstein links his early release to the First Step Act.
He declares that he wants to work 'on the bright side', including catching up on AI.

What do we know about the release?

Lichtenstein informed on social media that he was released from prison early thanks to the First Step Act (a reform from 2018) and that he wants to quickly return to the tech industry.

Many emotional interpretations are circulating online. If you cut through the noise, three hard elements remain: energy, strategic interests, and a demonstration of agency.

Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world – the stakes are enormous.
Trump spoke directly about rebuilding production by American companies.

Oil as the main 'asset' of this story

According to reports from major media and agencies, after the US operation and the detention of Maduro, President Trump announced that American oil companies are to invest billions in rebuilding Venezuelan extraction infrastructure.

A part of the market was concerned about the geopolitical 'risk-off'. However, a well-known analyst claims that the impact of events in Venezuela on Bitcoin may be limited.
Van de Poppe does not expect a broad correction just from this one impulse.
History shows that BTC's reactions to conflicts can be delayed and depend on escalation.

Does geopolitics have to drag down Bitcoin?
Michael van de Poppe assessed that the market might treat events in Venezuela as a 'closed episode' and that the probability of further waves of negative sentiment is low.

The market started 2026 on a positive note. Bitcoin returned above 90 thousand USD, and part of the capital also flowed to tokens associated with Donald Trump.

BTC reached around 91.7 thousand USD – the highest since mid-December.
Markets are more playing 'economic consequences' than the shock of geopolitics.

Why did the markets react positively?

According to media reports, the USA conducted a military operation in Venezuela, which led to the arrest of Nicolás Maduro, triggering a global political and legal discussion.

Binance Blockchain Week once again proved to be one of the most important events in the blockchain world. For two days, the industry discussed the future of Web3, regulation, and adoption.
The event gathered over 5,200 participants from around the world.
On stage, over 200 leaders in the blockchain industry performed.

Why is Binance Blockchain Week a celebration of cryptocurrencies?
This year's edition of Binance Blockchain Week attracted over 5,200 participants and 200+ speakers representing exchanges, funds, Web3 startups, regulators, and the academic community.

Binance launches the 'Christmas Is For Sharing' campaign. Just refer the platform to a friend so both parties can grab 20 USDC in the holiday promotion.

You recommend Binance → both parties get $20 USDC.
Rewards go to Mystery Boxes in the rewards center.

How does the Binance holiday promotion work?
As part of the 'Christmas Is For Sharing' campaign, Binance users can earn 20 USDC for each successful referral — and exactly the same amount is received by the invited person.

The terms are simple:

Binance launches Binance Junior – an application that allows parents to introduce their children to the world of cryptocurrencies and digital savings in a controlled manner. This is a new chapter in financial education for the youngest.
Binance Junior is a crypto app for children and teenagers (ages 6–17).

The account is fully managed and supervised by parents.

What is Binance Junior and for whom?
Binance Junior is a new application designed for children and teenagers that allows parents to build family savings in cryptocurrencies and teach the younger generation the basics of digital finance.