paodun

Non-farm data landing smoothly: US stocks slightly higher, markets awaiting the 'shoe to drop' on tariff rulings
January 9 report, US stocks rose slightly on Friday, with the December non-farm employment report not altering expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching a potential Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump's proposed tariff increases. Cayla Seder, macro multi-asset strategist at State Street, said: 'Today's labor data indicates the labor market is more balanced than weak. The figure is strong enough to show the economy remains in decent shape, yet not strong enough to significantly shift market expectations for monetary policy, which is favorable for equities.' Regarding the tariff ruling, the US Supreme Court is set to rule on the constitutionality of President Trump's comprehensive tariff policy introduced in April, marking one of the next major tests for US stocks and bonds. The policy once caused significant market turmoil. If the ruling determines the tariffs are unconstitutional, equities could be boosted due to improved profit margins and reduced consumer burden. At the same time, Treasury bonds may come under pressure, as such a potential stimulus could complicate the Federal Reserve's path toward rate cuts and increase the risk of expanding government budget deficits.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

The center of geopolitical storm shifts, Iran unrest triggers a sharp rise in oil prices
January 9 report: As deadly protests erupt in Iran and the U.S. issues threats of retaliation, the oil market's reaction to Iran's situation is intensifying. Brent crude futures rose over 4% in the past two trading sessions, having previously erased all gains made after last weekend's U.S. arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro. Traders are now paying the highest option premiums since last summer's reciprocal airstrikes between Israel and Iran to hedge against potential future price spikes. Although Venezuela's situation has quickly turned bearish for prices due to U.S. plans to release millions of barrels into the global market, any supply disruption from Iran—a much larger producer and exporter—would have far greater repercussions. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at A/S Global Risk Management, said: "The focus has now shifted to Iran, where violent protests are taking place. Markets are increasingly concerned that under Trump's leadership, the U.S. might exploit this chaos to attempt to overthrow the regime, as we saw in Venezuela." This week, the volume of Brent crude call options exceeded 750,000, the highest since October.
$BTC
$XAU
$XAG

Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei: The US President once claimed, 'If the Iranian government takes certain actions, I will stand with the protesters.' The protesters indeed placed their hopes in him. But first, if he has the ability, let him manage his own country properly.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Non-farm employment data below expectations, US stock index futures rise
According to reports, US stock index futures further increased after last month's employment growth slightly missed expectations. The US non-farm employment increased by 50,000 last month, below the market consensus expectation of 73,000. The unemployment rate dropped from the revised 4.5% in November to 4.4%. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, pointed out that the core takeaway from the report is that, in the first timely release of employment data in three months, there were more positive than negative aspects. The data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again later this month, although the market still expects rate cuts later this year.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Grayscale has officially registered the Grayscale HYPE ETF in Delaware.
According to the U.S. Delaware corporate registration information, Grayscale has formally registered the Grayscale HYPE ETF in Delaware, with registration number 10465863. The entity type is a Statutory Trust, with CSC DELAWARE TRUST COMPANY as the registered agent, and the registered address is 251 LITTLE FALLS DRIVE, WILMINGTON, DE 19808.
Earlier today, it was reported that Grayscale's BNB ETF has also completed registration in Delaware.
$HYPE
$BNB
$BTC

A major whale has established a long position worth $310 million, with current total profits exceeding $9.4 million.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, the whale who previously sold 255 BTC has established a long position worth $310 million:
1,210 BTC ($109.5 million)
32,474 ETH ($100.6 million)
503,778 SOL ($69.9 million)
14.26 million XRP (approximately $29.9 million)
His total profit has now exceeded $9.4 million.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

VanEck: Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050
VanEck releases a new report on long-term capital market assumptions for Bitcoin, forecasting strong growth over the coming decades and outlining how institutional investors might allocate this asset in diversified portfolios. The report, authored by Matthew Sigel, Director of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush, models Bitcoin reaching $2.9 million per unit by 2050 under a base scenario.
This projection implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% from current prices. The model assumes Bitcoin will account for 5–10% of global trade and become a central bank reserve asset, representing 2.5% of their balance sheets. In a conservative (bearish) scenario, Bitcoin would grow at just 2% annually, reaching about $130,000 per unit by 2050. Under an extreme bullish 'super Bitcoinization' scenario—where Bitcoin accounts for 20% of global trade and 10% of global GDP—Bitcoin could theoretically reach $53.4 million per unit, corresponding to a 29% CAGR.
The report emphasizes Bitcoin's potential as a strategic, low-correlation asset within institutional portfolios. VanEck recommends allocating 1–3% of diversified portfolios to Bitcoin. For investors with higher risk tolerance, historically increasing allocations to up to 20% can optimize returns. VanEck believes Bitcoin is evolving beyond a speculative asset and has the potential to become a reserve asset, offering a hedge against currency devaluation, particularly in developed markets facing high sovereign debt.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Nominal value of $1.87 billion in BTC options and $395 million in ETH options will expire today
According to Deribit data, options expiration and settlement will occur at 4 PM today, including: · $1.87 billion in BTC options, put/call ratio of 1.07, maximum pain point at $90,000; · $395 million in ETH options, put/call ratio of 0.88, maximum pain point at $3,100.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Trump has decided on the Federal Reserve chairman, but has not revealed the specific person.
According to reports, during an interview with The New York Times, U.S. President Trump stated that he has decided on who will be nominated as the next Federal Reserve chairman, but did not disclose the specific name. He mentioned, "I already have a decision in mind," and said he has not yet discussed it with anyone. Trump said his chief economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, "is definitely one of the people I like." Prediction markets on Kalshi show that Kevin Warsh has a 41% chance of becoming Federal Reserve chairman, Kevin Hassett has a 39% chance, and Christopher Waller has a 12% chance.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

If Bitcoin breaks above $92,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.15 billion.
According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin surpasses $92,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.15 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin drops below $89,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $944 million.
Note: The liquidation chart does not display the exact number of contracts awaiting liquidation or the precise value of liquidated contracts. The bars on the liquidation chart actually represent the relative importance of each liquidation cluster compared to nearby clusters, i.e., intensity. Therefore, the liquidation chart illustrates how severely a certain price level will be impacted. Higher "liquidation bars" indicate a stronger reaction will occur due to a liquidity wave once the price reaches that level.
#BTC
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

TrueBit allegedly attacked, loss of approximately $26.4 million
On-chain data shows that the blockchain computing scalability protocol TrueBit was allegedly attacked, resulting in a loss of 8,535 ETH, equivalent to about $26.4 million.
#ETH
$ETH

Russia draws a red line: if the UK and France station troops in Ukraine after a ceasefire, they will become 'legitimate targets'\nIn response to the UK and France announcing plans to deploy a multinational force to Ukraine after a ceasefire, Russia has issued a stern warning. Although the US has ruled out sending troops, the Trump administration has expressed support for the related security agreement.\n$BTC \n\n$ETH \n\n$BNB \n

Breaking News:
1. Trump said Wednesday evening that he expects the U.S. to take over Venezuela and extract crude oil from its vast reserves for many years to come.
2. According to CNBC: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the only missing factor for the economy to strengthen further is a more substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
3. Federal Reserve Board member Milan expects about a 150 basis point rate cut by 2026.
4. The U.S. trade deficit in October 2025 was $29.4 billion, the smallest since June 2009.
5. Initial jobless claims last week were 208,000, revised from a previous figure of 199,000 to 200,000.
6. Russia's Foreign Ministry expressed serious concern over the U.S.'s illegal use of force against the tanker Mariner.
7. The White House: The U.S. is actively discussing the 'purchase' of Greenland.
8. Zelenskyy: The U.S.-Ukraine security agreement is ready and will be finalized by the two leaders.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Data: The current holdings of whales on the Hyperliquid platform amount to $6.286 billion, with a long-to-short ratio of 0.89.
According to Coinglass data, the current holdings of whales on the Hyperliquid platform amount to $6.286 billion, with long positions totaling $2.957 billion, accounting for 47.05%, and short positions totaling $3.328 billion, accounting for 52.95%. The profit and loss for long positions is -$161 million, while for short positions it is $240 million.
Among them, the whale address 0xb317..ae went all-in long on ETH at 5x leverage at a price of $3,147.39, with an unrealized P&L of -$10.674 million as of now.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Upbit hacker is continuously transferring funds to Tornado Cash, with 1,400 ETH already transferred
According to MistTrack monitoring, the attacker (address starting with 0x93A0) responsible for the Upbit hack, which caused approximately $36 million in losses, is continuously moving funds to Tornado Cash. To date, 1,400 ETH have been transferred.
$ETH

North American mining companies are seizing the benefits of the bull market in precious metals, with last year's financing reaching a 12-year high.
Amid rising precious metal prices, a wave of financing has swept through capital markets, driven by small and mid-sized players, while large enterprises are demonstrating capital discipline, signaling positive market sentiment and an optimistic outlook for 2026.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

If ETH breaks above $3,314, the total short liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $1.785 billion

According to Coinglass data, if ETH breaks above $3,314, the total short liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $1.785 billion. Conversely, if ETH falls below $3,002, the total long liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $1.016 billion.

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

If BTC breaks above $95,649, the total short liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $2.532 billion.
According to Coinglass data, if BTC breaks above $95,649, the total short liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $2.532 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $87,099, the total long liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $1.87 billion.
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Data: BlackRock has withdrawn 3,040 BTC and 61,359 ETH from Coinbase Prime over the past 8 hours
According to Onchain Lens monitoring, in the last 8 hours, BlackRock has withdrawn 3,040 BTC ($277.7 million) and 61,359 ETH ($193.23 million).
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB