Nicolas Samui
Open Trade
BNB Holder
Occasional Trader
4.9 Years
Créateur de la chaine youtube et de la newsletter "les clefs du marchés" 👉 https://nicolas777.substack.com/
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165 Followers
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The Institutional Domino: why the Magnificent 7 might end up stacking Bitcoin!
We may be witnessing the beginning of a silent shift.
Bank of America is leading the way for cryptos.
Vanguard, the temple of financial conservatism, is changing its doctrine and finally listing Bitcoin.
Grayscale predicts a broken cycle and new peaks.
• Bank of America
BoA now allows certain clients to allocate up to 4% of their portfolio to digital assets.
For a bank that spent 10 years repeating that 'Bitcoin has no intrinsic value', this is a total turnaround.
Bank of America is leading the way for cryptos.
Vanguard, the temple of financial conservatism, is changing its doctrine and finally listing Bitcoin.
Grayscale predicts a broken cycle and new peaks.
• Bank of America
BoA now allows certain clients to allocate up to 4% of their portfolio to digital assets.
For a bank that spent 10 years repeating that 'Bitcoin has no intrinsic value', this is a total turnaround.
See original
Nasdaq and CME Group have just launched a common reference index for cryptocurrencies: the Nasdaq–CME Crypto Index.
Assets included:
$BTC , $ETH , XRP, SOL, LINK, ADA, AVAX.
Wall Street is thus standardizing its exposure to cryptocurrencies.
Assets included:
$BTC , $ETH , XRP, SOL, LINK, ADA, AVAX.
Wall Street is thus standardizing its exposure to cryptocurrencies.
See original
The inflation target of #Fed to 2% could evolve over time, but no decision is imminent:
The official target of the Federal Reserve remains fixed at 2% as of January 10, 2026, unchanged since its formalization in 2012.
Scott Bessent confirmed in December 2025 his openness to a future review, contingent upon inflation being sustainably stabilized around 2%.
The proposed options include an inflation range, such as 1.5–2.5% or 1–3%, as opposed to the single-point target that has been in place for over 13 years.
#Bessent explicitly excludes any changes as long as inflation remains above target, to avoid an adjustment perceived as inflationary.
Since January 1, 2026, no new or advanced formal statements have been reported by Bloomberg, Reuters, or CNBC.
Core inflation is estimated at around 2.3% at the beginning of January 2026, compared to a peak above 4% observed in 2023.
The speech on January 8, 2026, emphasized faster rate cuts in 2026, presented as the key lever to support growth.
Market attention is now focused on the rate cut schedule and the appointment of the next Fed chair, expected early 2026.
The inflation target remains unchanged, and the debate remains conditional and without immediate impact on monetary policy.
The official target of the Federal Reserve remains fixed at 2% as of January 10, 2026, unchanged since its formalization in 2012.
Scott Bessent confirmed in December 2025 his openness to a future review, contingent upon inflation being sustainably stabilized around 2%.
The proposed options include an inflation range, such as 1.5–2.5% or 1–3%, as opposed to the single-point target that has been in place for over 13 years.
#Bessent explicitly excludes any changes as long as inflation remains above target, to avoid an adjustment perceived as inflationary.
Since January 1, 2026, no new or advanced formal statements have been reported by Bloomberg, Reuters, or CNBC.
Core inflation is estimated at around 2.3% at the beginning of January 2026, compared to a peak above 4% observed in 2023.
The speech on January 8, 2026, emphasized faster rate cuts in 2026, presented as the key lever to support growth.
Market attention is now focused on the rate cut schedule and the appointment of the next Fed chair, expected early 2026.
The inflation target remains unchanged, and the debate remains conditional and without immediate impact on monetary policy.
See original
🟢 Mon Outlook macro 2026 🇺🇸
- Commodity prices (metals) continue to rise, driven by demand related to AI and geopolitical risks
- Long-term rates (US10Y) remain high for some time
- PCE inflation stagnates
- Tech companies face margin compression (due to massive investments)
- AI improves margins in other sectors
- As a result, US GDP growth is capped
In a second phase,
- Commodity prices stop rising
- AI-related layoffs reduce consumer purchasing power
- The regime becomes slightly deflationary
- To support growth, the Fed resumes QE
$BTC
- Commodity prices (metals) continue to rise, driven by demand related to AI and geopolitical risks
- Long-term rates (US10Y) remain high for some time
- PCE inflation stagnates
- Tech companies face margin compression (due to massive investments)
- AI improves margins in other sectors
- As a result, US GDP growth is capped
In a second phase,
- Commodity prices stop rising
- AI-related layoffs reduce consumer purchasing power
- The regime becomes slightly deflationary
- To support growth, the Fed resumes QE
$BTC
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What will happen in markets in 2026?
Markets love simple stories, but 2026 won't be a simple year.
We are entering a very particular macro regime.
A world where geopolitical tensions, commodities, and AI are reshaping economic balances.
Before discussing forecasts or investments, let's start with observable facts.
My macroeconomic analysis
The rise in the CRB Index is not an isolated phenomenon. It acts as a revealer of the macro regime we have entered. Sustained demand for commodities, driven by both geopolitical tensions and the surge in AI-related needs, is profoundly altering economic equilibria.
We are entering a very particular macro regime.
A world where geopolitical tensions, commodities, and AI are reshaping economic balances.
Before discussing forecasts or investments, let's start with observable facts.
My macroeconomic analysis
The rise in the CRB Index is not an isolated phenomenon. It acts as a revealer of the macro regime we have entered. Sustained demand for commodities, driven by both geopolitical tensions and the surge in AI-related needs, is profoundly altering economic equilibria.
See original
One of the most respected macro investors has just shared his vision of what is coming.
Debt, bubbles, AI, monetary policy, Ray Dalio sees 2026 as a major turning point in the global economic cycle.
We have synthesized his key alerts and positioning into a single infographic.
If you like this type of insight, let me know in the comments.
$BTC
Debt, bubbles, AI, monetary policy, Ray Dalio sees 2026 as a major turning point in the global economic cycle.
We have synthesized his key alerts and positioning into a single infographic.
If you like this type of insight, let me know in the comments.
$BTC
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Joe Lubin predicts that by mid-2026, Linea (ConsenSys's Ethereum L2) and MetaMask will enable SWIFT to make payment settlements on the blockchain through their ISO 20022 partnership.
He also anticipates native tokenization of shares by major companies in the next 12 months, boosting real-world assets (RWA) on the blockchain. $ETH
He also anticipates native tokenization of shares by major companies in the next 12 months, boosting real-world assets (RWA) on the blockchain. $ETH
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No one really talks about him, and yet Alex Saab could be one of the most influential individuals in the Bitcoin market.
Officially, Venezuela would hold 240 $BTC , but unofficial estimates would suggest up to 600,000 BTC, or nearly 60 billion $, excluding public and invisible on-chain balances.
Alex Saab would not be a trader, but a network architect: an unofficial diplomat of Maduro and a central figure in the systems of sanctions evasion linking gold, oil, USDT, and potentially Bitcoin.
There would be no on-chain evidence, only reconstructed flows, estimates based on OECD data, and cold geopolitical logic, exactly what a state would seek if discretion were the priority.
The real question is not whether it’s proven, but what would happen to Bitcoin if the market discovered that a single individual could control a hidden state reserve.
👇 Plausible or fiction?
Officially, Venezuela would hold 240 $BTC , but unofficial estimates would suggest up to 600,000 BTC, or nearly 60 billion $, excluding public and invisible on-chain balances.
Alex Saab would not be a trader, but a network architect: an unofficial diplomat of Maduro and a central figure in the systems of sanctions evasion linking gold, oil, USDT, and potentially Bitcoin.
There would be no on-chain evidence, only reconstructed flows, estimates based on OECD data, and cold geopolitical logic, exactly what a state would seek if discretion were the priority.
The real question is not whether it’s proven, but what would happen to Bitcoin if the market discovered that a single individual could control a hidden state reserve.
👇 Plausible or fiction?
See original
Prediction markets are supposed to price uncertainty.
And yet, on #Polymarket , some portfolios only bet on certainties.
Strange coincidence. Very strange.
And yet, on #Polymarket , some portfolios only bet on certainties.
Strange coincidence. Very strange.
See original
There were 717 business bankruptcies in 2025 in the USA
Mainly due to the persistence of high interest rates and tariffs that heavily penalize industrial sectors (110 cases) and discretionary consumption (retail/fashion, about 85 cases).
The least affected sectors remain technology/AI, public services, and health, which show resilience.
#IA
Mainly due to the persistence of high interest rates and tariffs that heavily penalize industrial sectors (110 cases) and discretionary consumption (retail/fashion, about 85 cases).
The least affected sectors remain technology/AI, public services, and health, which show resilience.
#IA
See original
Why Trump's initiative in Venezuela could be one of the major strategic moves of the decade in energy
Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of proven reserves, the largest in the world.
By securing influence over Venezuela, the United States gains potential long-term leverage over the global oil supply.
Energy is not just an economic variable. It is a geopolitical weapon.
This move allows the United States to:
– Reduce the strategic leverage of Russia and Iran
– Strengthen the dollar through oil trading
– Offer an alternative to countries dependent on Russian oil
– Influence global oil prices
It is also a strong signal sent to China, which has been gradually expanding its influence in South America.
In many ways, this resembles a modern reaffirmation of the Monroe Doctrine.
The real question is not whether this matters, but how markets and international alliances will integrate it into prices.
What long-term impact do you see on energy markets and the US dollar?
$BTC $XAU
Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of proven reserves, the largest in the world.
By securing influence over Venezuela, the United States gains potential long-term leverage over the global oil supply.
Energy is not just an economic variable. It is a geopolitical weapon.
This move allows the United States to:
– Reduce the strategic leverage of Russia and Iran
– Strengthen the dollar through oil trading
– Offer an alternative to countries dependent on Russian oil
– Influence global oil prices
It is also a strong signal sent to China, which has been gradually expanding its influence in South America.
In many ways, this resembles a modern reaffirmation of the Monroe Doctrine.
The real question is not whether this matters, but how markets and international alliances will integrate it into prices.
What long-term impact do you see on energy markets and the US dollar?
$BTC $XAU
See original
A Vanguard chart (December 2025) clearly shows where the #IA stands.
The investment cycle is still at an early stage: only 30 to 40% of historical peaks.
Since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, AI has already added about 250 billion dollars to the US GDP, and this contribution is expected to continue growing in 2026.
The transformation related to AI requires massive capital investments (data centers, chips, energy, infrastructure), which increasingly concentrates risks for investors.
The next phase will depend on the major "AI scalers":
Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and a few others.
They have committed to investing 2.1 trillion dollars by 2027.
The investment cycle is still at an early stage: only 30 to 40% of historical peaks.
Since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, AI has already added about 250 billion dollars to the US GDP, and this contribution is expected to continue growing in 2026.
The transformation related to AI requires massive capital investments (data centers, chips, energy, infrastructure), which increasingly concentrates risks for investors.
The next phase will depend on the major "AI scalers":
Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and a few others.
They have committed to investing 2.1 trillion dollars by 2027.
See original
Or, Argent, IA, $BTC : crisis or opportunity in 2026 ?
In this video, I answer this question. Don't forget to like and share.
Subscribe to my YT channel and my newsletter so you don't miss my upcoming publications, the link is in the description of my profile.
See you soon!
In this video, I answer this question. Don't forget to like and share.
Subscribe to my YT channel and my newsletter so you don't miss my upcoming publications, the link is in the description of my profile.
See you soon!
See original
Can the S&P 500 reach a higher level in 2026?
All the major banks respond "YES", with a price target of 8,000 points set by Deutsche Bank. 😳😳😳
Do you think this is possible? #S&P500
All the major banks respond "YES", with a price target of 8,000 points set by Deutsche Bank. 😳😳😳
Do you think this is possible? #S&P500
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The first million is difficult to earn because it requires a change in mindset.
You have to learn everything at the same time. This is where 99% of people fail.
At first, it's fun.
Then it becomes frustrating, as the results are not immediate.
Most people give up because they do not understand that compound interest also applies to stocks.
There is an inertia between action and result.
And yes, it seems easier to make money in other ways.
This belief is one of the biggest illusions of modern economics.
#BTC
You have to learn everything at the same time. This is where 99% of people fail.
At first, it's fun.
Then it becomes frustrating, as the results are not immediate.
Most people give up because they do not understand that compound interest also applies to stocks.
There is an inertia between action and result.
And yes, it seems easier to make money in other ways.
This belief is one of the biggest illusions of modern economics.
#BTC
See original
The drama surrounding the Aave protocol clearly shows one thing: the #DeFi is not yet mature.
We are going through an identity crisis, somewhat like adolescence in human beings. It is chaotic, confusing, inevitable. This will eventually resolve itself over time.
But for now, investors, even in a safe value like Aave, do not really know what they are investing in:
- what is owed to them,
- what rights the token actually confers to them,
- and where governance really begins and ends.
If you are wondering why altcoins are losing momentum, here is part of the answer.
We are going through an identity crisis, somewhat like adolescence in human beings. It is chaotic, confusing, inevitable. This will eventually resolve itself over time.
But for now, investors, even in a safe value like Aave, do not really know what they are investing in:
- what is owed to them,
- what rights the token actually confers to them,
- and where governance really begins and ends.
If you are wondering why altcoins are losing momentum, here is part of the answer.
See original
The Christmas rally has been launched after the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Japan.
#BTC #ETH #BOJ
#BTC #ETH #BOJ
See original
Why the BoJ's rate hike to 0.75% is good news (or the least bad) for the markets.
Let me explain 👇
The #BoJ does not perceive major risks for the markets: it is raising its rates calmly, signaling a smooth normalization.
The BoJ has not focused on an aggressive fight against inflation: no accelerated hikes or stricter quantitative tightening (QT).
On the contrary, it has sent positive signals:
- Growing confidence in sustainable inflation around 2% by the end of 2026/2027.
- Future rate hikes only gradual.
- Moderate economic recovery.
- Maintaining the virtuous cycle of wages and prices. The policy remains accommodative (negative real rates).
- Economists forecast a terminal rate around 1% (Oxford, ANZ).
Moderate inflation of 2% is positive: prices and wages are rising together, supporting growth and real purchasing power.
#BTC #JPY #USD #BoJ
Let me explain 👇
The #BoJ does not perceive major risks for the markets: it is raising its rates calmly, signaling a smooth normalization.
The BoJ has not focused on an aggressive fight against inflation: no accelerated hikes or stricter quantitative tightening (QT).
On the contrary, it has sent positive signals:
- Growing confidence in sustainable inflation around 2% by the end of 2026/2027.
- Future rate hikes only gradual.
- Moderate economic recovery.
- Maintaining the virtuous cycle of wages and prices. The policy remains accommodative (negative real rates).
- Economists forecast a terminal rate around 1% (Oxford, ANZ).
Moderate inflation of 2% is positive: prices and wages are rising together, supporting growth and real purchasing power.
#BTC #JPY #USD #BoJ
See original
Why haven't altcoins really taken off yet?
The problem doesn't lie with the technology, but with everything that surrounds it. After years of using blockchain, I've realized that as soon as you step outside the chain, you hit a wall of rules, frictions, and internal politics unrelated to innovation.
There's no real crypto credit, almost no loans, and too many neobanks acting in bad faith... Adoption isn't blocked by the lack of use cases, but by the lack of integration.
The good news is that this is starting to change.
Players are working on creating an all-in-one application: stocks, crypto, DeFi, prediction markets, and financial infrastructure, all in one place.
It's the integration that was missing in crypto. When crypto becomes transparent and invisible within the financial system, altcoins won't just soar, they will reach a completely different scale.
$BTC
The problem doesn't lie with the technology, but with everything that surrounds it. After years of using blockchain, I've realized that as soon as you step outside the chain, you hit a wall of rules, frictions, and internal politics unrelated to innovation.
There's no real crypto credit, almost no loans, and too many neobanks acting in bad faith... Adoption isn't blocked by the lack of use cases, but by the lack of integration.
The good news is that this is starting to change.
Players are working on creating an all-in-one application: stocks, crypto, DeFi, prediction markets, and financial infrastructure, all in one place.
It's the integration that was missing in crypto. When crypto becomes transparent and invisible within the financial system, altcoins won't just soar, they will reach a completely different scale.
$BTC
See original
Since the end of the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening (QT) on December 1, 2025, which prevents a monthly reduction of $25 billion in liquidity in Treasuries, several injections have taken place to stabilize the financial system.
#Fed
#Fed
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