金鑫鑫-数字舞者
专注币圈多年，善于把握各种短线，波段操作，对趋势有敏锐的洞察力，专业耕丹解套。
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Top-level prediction Current price short Instant arrival It's that smooth! $BTC $ETH
Weak upward momentum Bitcoin, Ethereum current price short Look at 82200 2700 $BTC $ETH
On the daily scale, Ethereum is currently under an absolute bearish trend, with persistent downward pressure evident in the market. Yesterday's market closed with narrow fluctuations, and the bulls did not form an effective counterattack. Today, the market opened low and continued to decline, producing a solid bearish candlestick that completely engulfed the previous slight rebound's gains, declaring the bulls' counterattack ineffective in this phase.
From the perspective of price and technical indicators, the coin price has effectively broken below the recent consolidation range's lower edge, running into the middle-lower area of the Bollinger Bands, just a step away from the lower support of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the current downward momentum is still being released, with no signs of momentum exhaustion appearing yet. At the same time, the coin price has significantly breached several key moving averages, including the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMA, with the short-term moving average system showing a downward diverging bearish arrangement, further reinforcing the effectiveness and certainty of the bearish trend from a trend indicator perspective.
The 4-hour cycle trend resonates with the daily level, with the overall market under pressure and forming a clear staircase-like downward pattern. Recently, the price has repeatedly broken through several key short-term support levels, establishing a clear downward channel, with each rebound failing to break through the previous wave's half-point pressure level, highlighting weak rebound strength and the bulls' lack of upward momentum. From the K-line structure performance, the market has continuously produced multiple bearish candlesticks, with the bearish candlestick bodies gradually expanding, visually reflecting the continuous strengthening of short-term downward momentum. Currently, the coin price is running below the lower track of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, completely detaching from the short-term moving average system support. Although it has entered the potential rebound brewing stage after being oversold, the market has yet to release any clear stabilization or reversal signals.
On the hourly scale, Ethereum has entered a narrow consolidation phase. After a significant drop early this morning, the price is caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, forming a small fluctuation consolidation platform. From the market details, the competition between the bulls and bears has become intense, with the price volatility continuing to narrow, while exhibiting typical volume-price divergence characteristics: the price fluctuation space is minimal, yet the corresponding trading volume continues to shrink, reflecting that the overall sentiment of market participants is trending towards caution, with both bulls and bears maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, and there is no clear direction choice in the market.
January 30 operation notes
Ethereum: 2770-2810 short
Target: 2720-2540
$ETH #以太坊行情走势分析
From the perspective of price and technical indicators, the coin price has effectively broken below the recent consolidation range's lower edge, running into the middle-lower area of the Bollinger Bands, just a step away from the lower support of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the current downward momentum is still being released, with no signs of momentum exhaustion appearing yet. At the same time, the coin price has significantly breached several key moving averages, including the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMA, with the short-term moving average system showing a downward diverging bearish arrangement, further reinforcing the effectiveness and certainty of the bearish trend from a trend indicator perspective.
The 4-hour cycle trend resonates with the daily level, with the overall market under pressure and forming a clear staircase-like downward pattern. Recently, the price has repeatedly broken through several key short-term support levels, establishing a clear downward channel, with each rebound failing to break through the previous wave's half-point pressure level, highlighting weak rebound strength and the bulls' lack of upward momentum. From the K-line structure performance, the market has continuously produced multiple bearish candlesticks, with the bearish candlestick bodies gradually expanding, visually reflecting the continuous strengthening of short-term downward momentum. Currently, the coin price is running below the lower track of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, completely detaching from the short-term moving average system support. Although it has entered the potential rebound brewing stage after being oversold, the market has yet to release any clear stabilization or reversal signals.
On the hourly scale, Ethereum has entered a narrow consolidation phase. After a significant drop early this morning, the price is caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, forming a small fluctuation consolidation platform. From the market details, the competition between the bulls and bears has become intense, with the price volatility continuing to narrow, while exhibiting typical volume-price divergence characteristics: the price fluctuation space is minimal, yet the corresponding trading volume continues to shrink, reflecting that the overall sentiment of market participants is trending towards caution, with both bulls and bears maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, and there is no clear direction choice in the market.
January 30 operation notes
Ethereum: 2770-2810 short
Target: 2720-2540
$ETH #以太坊行情走势分析
1月30日#比特币行情分析 &操作建议
比特币当前呈现多周期共振走弱的态势，日线、4 小时及小时线级别均形成明确的空头主导格局，下行趋势延续性较强。
日线级别上，比特币下行趋势清晰确立，近期盘面整体以阴线走势为主。今日收出的阴线直接吞噬前两日的反弹涨幅，形成典型的吞没式下跌形态，直观反映出市场空头动能十分强劲。指标层面，布林带持续向下开口，价格始终运行于布林下轨下方，意味着当前下跌趋势仍处于加速阶段，原有下方支撑位接连被有效突破。均线系统同样印证空头格局，5 日、10 日、20 日等短期均线全部向下发散，同时长期均线对价格形成持续压制，进一步巩固了日线级别的弱势走势。
4 小时周期内，比特币走势与日线级别形成联动承压，走出阶梯式下跌的结构。K 线形态上，近期 4 小时级别多次出现阴包阳走势，每一轮反弹都无法突破上一轮的反弹高点，反弹力量逐步衰竭。成交量层面呈现典型的弱势特征，下跌阶段伴随成交量有效放大，而反弹过程中成交量持续萎缩，形成量价背离，说明市场多头承接力度薄弱、反弹意愿不足，短期盘面依旧由空头主导。
小时线级别中，比特币处于急跌之后的弱反弹震荡整理阶段。反弹过程中，K 线实体不断缩小，体现出反弹动能持续衰减；同时价格反弹始终无法突破小时线布林中轨的压制，布林中轨也由此成为短期盘面的重要阻力位置，若无法有效站稳该位置，弱势整理格局或将延续。
1 月 30 日操作笔记
$BTC ：83500-84000空
目标：83000-78500
免责声明：观点分享，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资有风险，盈亏须自负。
比特币当前呈现多周期共振走弱的态势，日线、4 小时及小时线级别均形成明确的空头主导格局，下行趋势延续性较强。
日线级别上，比特币下行趋势清晰确立，近期盘面整体以阴线走势为主。今日收出的阴线直接吞噬前两日的反弹涨幅，形成典型的吞没式下跌形态，直观反映出市场空头动能十分强劲。指标层面，布林带持续向下开口，价格始终运行于布林下轨下方，意味着当前下跌趋势仍处于加速阶段，原有下方支撑位接连被有效突破。均线系统同样印证空头格局，5 日、10 日、20 日等短期均线全部向下发散，同时长期均线对价格形成持续压制，进一步巩固了日线级别的弱势走势。
4 小时周期内，比特币走势与日线级别形成联动承压，走出阶梯式下跌的结构。K 线形态上，近期 4 小时级别多次出现阴包阳走势，每一轮反弹都无法突破上一轮的反弹高点，反弹力量逐步衰竭。成交量层面呈现典型的弱势特征，下跌阶段伴随成交量有效放大，而反弹过程中成交量持续萎缩，形成量价背离，说明市场多头承接力度薄弱、反弹意愿不足，短期盘面依旧由空头主导。
小时线级别中，比特币处于急跌之后的弱反弹震荡整理阶段。反弹过程中，K 线实体不断缩小，体现出反弹动能持续衰减；同时价格反弹始终无法突破小时线布林中轨的压制，布林中轨也由此成为短期盘面的重要阻力位置，若无法有效站稳该位置，弱势整理格局或将延续。
1 月 30 日操作笔记
$BTC ：83500-84000空
目标：83000-78500
免责声明：观点分享，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资有风险，盈亏须自负。
Bitcoin's current downward momentum is strong, and the key support level of 80600 is expected to be difficult to withstand. The intraday market is likely to further explore downwards, with hopes of reaching the support area near 78500.
$BTC #比特币暴跌
$BTC #比特币暴跌
Bitcoin plummets, the market is in panic, retail investors are at a loss.
But isn't this smooth one-sided decline a rare trading opportunity?
There's no need to get tangled up in going long or short; just recognize the bearish trend, and directly open a short position on the pullback. The thought process is straightforward, the operation is simple, and it's much easier to grasp than the grinding market. $BTC #比特币暴跌
But isn't this smooth one-sided decline a rare trading opportunity?
There's no need to get tangled up in going long or short; just recognize the bearish trend, and directly open a short position on the pullback. The thought process is straightforward, the operation is simple, and it's much easier to grasp than the grinding market. $BTC #比特币暴跌
January 29 Ethereum Market Analysis & Trading Suggestions
Today, Ethereum continues to show a volatile consolidation pattern, with intense competition between bulls and bears, as the price repeatedly oscillates around the key watershed of $2950, showing no clear direction in the short term.
The current estimated leverage ratio for Ethereum futures has risen to a historical peak, with the market accumulating a large number of high-risk margin positions, sharply increasing overall trading risk. According to Coinglass data, ETH has formed a clear liquidation threshold: if the price falls below $2857, it is very likely to trigger a forced liquidation of long positions amounting to as much as $1.476 billion; if the price breaks above $3152, it may cause the liquidation of short positions totaling $729 million. The extreme leverage environment is like a market "powder keg"; regardless of which direction the price moves in a one-sided trend, the chain liquidation effect will be significantly amplified, making extreme fluctuations such as flash crashes or violent surges highly likely.
The current estimated leverage ratio for Ethereum futures has risen to a historical peak, with the market accumulating a large number of high-risk margin positions, sharply increasing overall trading risk. According to Coinglass data, ETH has formed a clear liquidation threshold: if the price falls below $2857, it is very likely to trigger a forced liquidation of long positions amounting to as much as $1.476 billion; if the price breaks above $3152, it may cause the liquidation of short positions totaling $729 million. The extreme leverage environment is like a market "powder keg"; regardless of which direction the price moves in a one-sided trend, the chain liquidation effect will be significantly amplified, making extreme fluctuations such as flash crashes or violent surges highly likely.
January 29 Bitcoin Market Analysis & Trading Suggestions
Today's Bitcoin market trend is dominated by two core factors: the unchanged Federal Reserve policy and the continuous escalation of geopolitical risks. Under the influence of these dual factors, Bitcoin has shown a trend of rising and then falling, followed by a period of consolidation.
From the price movement rhythm, Bitcoin started to decline from above $95,000, and although there was a temporary rebound, the height of the rebound has always been significantly suppressed, and the price has been unable to effectively stabilize above the $90,000 mark. Based on the structure of the trend, the current stage's rebound leans more towards a technical correction after a downtrend, lacking the core conditions for a trend reversal.
From the perspective of market sentiment and technical analysis, there is a significant divergence between bulls and bears, creating an intense market competition atmosphere. Technical indicator ratings show a pattern of 16 strong sell signals, 6 neutral signals, and 3 buy signals, with the overall signal leaning towards bearish. At the same time, the presence of neutral indicators reflects a strong wait-and-see attitude among market participants, with neither bulls nor bears forming an overwhelming advantage.
In terms of trading volume, the recent market has been overall quiet, with no sustained signals of funding pushing the volume up. In the absence of volume support, it is difficult for the market to break through the current range and form an effective one-sided trend. The Bitcoin market is likely to maintain a range-bound consolidation pattern going forward.
January 29 Trading Notes
Bitcoin: 89300-89800 short
Target: 88800-87200
Disclaimer: The views shared are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks, and profits and losses are to be borne by oneself.
#$BTC #比特币行情走势分析
Today's Bitcoin market trend is dominated by two core factors: the unchanged Federal Reserve policy and the continuous escalation of geopolitical risks. Under the influence of these dual factors, Bitcoin has shown a trend of rising and then falling, followed by a period of consolidation.
From the price movement rhythm, Bitcoin started to decline from above $95,000, and although there was a temporary rebound, the height of the rebound has always been significantly suppressed, and the price has been unable to effectively stabilize above the $90,000 mark. Based on the structure of the trend, the current stage's rebound leans more towards a technical correction after a downtrend, lacking the core conditions for a trend reversal.
From the perspective of market sentiment and technical analysis, there is a significant divergence between bulls and bears, creating an intense market competition atmosphere. Technical indicator ratings show a pattern of 16 strong sell signals, 6 neutral signals, and 3 buy signals, with the overall signal leaning towards bearish. At the same time, the presence of neutral indicators reflects a strong wait-and-see attitude among market participants, with neither bulls nor bears forming an overwhelming advantage.
In terms of trading volume, the recent market has been overall quiet, with no sustained signals of funding pushing the volume up. In the absence of volume support, it is difficult for the market to break through the current range and form an effective one-sided trend. The Bitcoin market is likely to maintain a range-bound consolidation pattern going forward.
January 29 Trading Notes
Bitcoin: 89300-89800 short
Target: 88800-87200
Disclaimer: The views shared are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks, and profits and losses are to be borne by oneself.
#$BTC #比特币行情走势分析
Last Night's Major News: Federal Reserve Hits the 'Pause' Button on Rate Cuts
On January 28, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting concluded, and the core decision was made - to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. This is the first pause in the easing cycle after three consecutive rate cuts last year, with a policy tone leaning towards hawkishness, sending a clear signal to the market: inflation remains sticky, and easing will not be 'rushed'.
1. Core Decision: Interest rate unchanged + hawkish statement, 2 votes against highlight divergence
- Interest Rate Decision: In line with market expectations, the interest rate range remains at 3.5%-3.75%, with no further rate cuts and no resumption of rate hikes;
- Voting Results: A voting pattern of 10 votes in favor and 2 votes against highlights policy divergence. Opponents (Federal Reserve officials Milan and Waller) believe that a further rate cut of 25 basis points should be implemented to support economic recovery;
1. Core Decision: Interest rate unchanged + hawkish statement, 2 votes against highlight divergence
- Interest Rate Decision: In line with market expectations, the interest rate range remains at 3.5%-3.75%, with no further rate cuts and no resumption of rate hikes;
- Voting Results: A voting pattern of 10 votes in favor and 2 votes against highlights policy divergence. Opponents (Federal Reserve officials Milan and Waller) believe that a further rate cut of 25 basis points should be implemented to support economic recovery;
It's too radical early in the morning. Admitting mistakes is not shameful; facing problems is the key to solving them. $BTC
Bitcoin and Ethereum current price more Target 89600 3030
$BTC $ETH
$BTC $ETH
Not watching Brother Xin's strategy is your loss!
What can I say! The aggressive brothers must have hit a pit today, right?
No matter how we go, one word: grasp it!
Today I knew there would be a surge, so I set the position high and also took a long position in the middle!
Again, it's a double hit $BTC $ETH
What can I say! The aggressive brothers must have hit a pit today, right?
No matter how we go, one word: grasp it!
Today I knew there would be a surge, so I set the position high and also took a long position in the middle!
Again, it's a double hit $BTC $ETH
We believe that the essence of trading is actually a confrontation with human nature.
When one can rationally view each profit and loss, they have already surpassed most investors. Many traders often fall into a misconception, actually protecting capital is far more important than making a profit. The premise of stability must be slow compounding over time.
For our stable trading members, we have identified several traits!
First, strictly adhere to trading rules and do not arbitrarily change plans! Second, have great patience, waiting for our high-probability signals, and do not trade frequently!
Third, accept losses; losses are also a part of trading, the key is to achieve long-term stable profits.
Fourth, establish strict rules, tightly control funds, and maintain fixed positions.
Fifth, be able to manage positions well, enter and exit based on our signals, and set stop-losses and targets.
After stabilizing trading, one must prevent excessive confidence in increasing positions after consecutive profits, ignoring market risks. The correct approach is to continue to maintain a humble and calm mindset, and to respect the market!
#交易心理 $BTC
When one can rationally view each profit and loss, they have already surpassed most investors. Many traders often fall into a misconception, actually protecting capital is far more important than making a profit. The premise of stability must be slow compounding over time.
For our stable trading members, we have identified several traits!
First, strictly adhere to trading rules and do not arbitrarily change plans! Second, have great patience, waiting for our high-probability signals, and do not trade frequently!
Third, accept losses; losses are also a part of trading, the key is to achieve long-term stable profits.
Fourth, establish strict rules, tightly control funds, and maintain fixed positions.
Fifth, be able to manage positions well, enter and exit based on our signals, and set stop-losses and targets.
After stabilizing trading, one must prevent excessive confidence in increasing positions after consecutive profits, ignoring market risks. The correct approach is to continue to maintain a humble and calm mindset, and to respect the market!
#交易心理 $BTC
Ethereum has recently shown a trend characteristic of 'consolidation and weak rebound'.
From the trend structure perspective, Ethereum was previously in a recovery phase after a decline at the daily level, and the moving average system still shows a bearish arrangement. The short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages have not yet formed a golden cross resonance, indicating that the medium to long-term trend has not completely reversed.
Trading volume aspect, during today's rebound, there was no significant increase in trading volume, showing a 'volume contraction rebound' characteristic, indicating that the bullish momentum is relatively weak, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable.
January 28 operation notes
Ethereum: 3020-3060 short
Target: 2980-2950
$ETH #以太坊行情走势分析
From the trend structure perspective, Ethereum was previously in a recovery phase after a decline at the daily level, and the moving average system still shows a bearish arrangement. The short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages have not yet formed a golden cross resonance, indicating that the medium to long-term trend has not completely reversed.
Trading volume aspect, during today's rebound, there was no significant increase in trading volume, showing a 'volume contraction rebound' characteristic, indicating that the bullish momentum is relatively weak, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable.
January 28 operation notes
Ethereum: 3020-3060 short
Target: 2980-2950
$ETH #以太坊行情走势分析
January 28 Bitcoin Market Analysis & Trading Suggestions
From the daily candlestick pattern, Bitcoin is currently consolidating in the range of 88500-89500, with an overall structure showing a pattern of 'decline-rebound-drop', and has not yet formed an effective breakthrough of previous highs or a trend of higher highs.
The rebound on the 4-hour chart exhibits characteristics of a weak market with 'no-volume rebound and high points under pressure'. During the decline, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator has clearly weakened, and during the rebound, the CVD has not simultaneously reached new highs, indicating that there is buying interest but insufficient strength, mainly driven by short-term funds, and a trend of bullish strength has not formed. If the price cannot stabilize above 90000, the bearish expectations on the 4-hour level will continue.
The rebound on the 4-hour chart exhibits characteristics of a weak market with 'no-volume rebound and high points under pressure'. During the decline, the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator has clearly weakened, and during the rebound, the CVD has not simultaneously reached new highs, indicating that there is buying interest but insufficient strength, mainly driven by short-term funds, and a trend of bullish strength has not formed. If the price cannot stabilize above 90000, the bearish expectations on the 4-hour level will continue.
Why market structure makes more sense after real losses
Most traders learn market structure through charts, videos, and posts.
Higher highs, lower lows, BOS, CHoCH—it all seems simple on paper.
But here’s a truth that most people won’t tell you:
➤ Market structure only truly makes sense until you actually lose money.
Before losing money, the structure feels like an academic theory.
After losing money, it becomes a logic of survival.
When trading goes smoothly, I don’t really understand market structure.
It’s only when the market punishes my assumptions, ignores my biases, and takes money from my account that I understand.
Higher highs, lower lows, BOS, CHoCH—it all seems simple on paper.
But here’s a truth that most people won’t tell you:
➤ Market structure only truly makes sense until you actually lose money.
Before losing money, the structure feels like an academic theory.
After losing money, it becomes a logic of survival.
When trading goes smoothly, I don’t really understand market structure.
It’s only when the market punishes my assumptions, ignores my biases, and takes money from my account that I understand.
Since I joined the square, in terms of strategy accuracy and the hard strength of current price calls, I ask who can surpass it?!
In contrast, those who only know how to draw charts, tell stories, and analyze ambiguously, the difference is clear!
Here, I only speak with results; keep up the rhythm, and you can turn the strategy into real profits!
Brothers who have made a profit, give a wave of 666 support! $BTC
In contrast, those who only know how to draw charts, tell stories, and analyze ambiguously, the difference is clear!
Here, I only speak with results; keep up the rhythm, and you can turn the strategy into real profits!
Brothers who have made a profit, give a wave of 666 support! $BTC
Ethereum currently needs to focus on two conflicting signals: Spot Ethereum ETF has seen a significant net inflow of $110 million in a single day, indicating clear actions of capital positioning at lower levels; however, at the same time, a dormant ETH whale address that has been inactive for 9 years has transferred a large amount of tokens to an exchange, and the market may face potential selling pressure.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a clear bearish trend for Ethereum, with prices still in a weak rebound phase after a significant drop, and the overall downward pattern has not yet broken; the 4-hour chart shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin, with prices stuck in a horizontal consolidation near the middle Bollinger band; the hourly chart has entered a narrow fluctuation range, with the moving average system entangled and flattening, market trading sentiment is becoming cautious, and trading volume is also shrinking.
January 27 operation notes$ETH
Ethereum: 2910-2940 short
Target: 2860-2720
#以太坊行情走势分析
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a clear bearish trend for Ethereum, with prices still in a weak rebound phase after a significant drop, and the overall downward pattern has not yet broken; the 4-hour chart shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin, with prices stuck in a horizontal consolidation near the middle Bollinger band; the hourly chart has entered a narrow fluctuation range, with the moving average system entangled and flattening, market trading sentiment is becoming cautious, and trading volume is also shrinking.
January 27 operation notes$ETH
Ethereum: 2910-2940 short
Target: 2860-2720
#以太坊行情走势分析
Bitcoin Evening Market Analysis
From the daily chart perspective, Bitcoin is still in a technical rebound phase after a decline, and has not yet formed an effective reversal pattern.
In terms of K-line patterns, the recent rebound failed to break through the core resistance zone of $94,000 - $98,000, and has not formed a higher high. The current price has fallen below the 30-day moving average and only received weak support at the 7-day moving average; the volume shows a clear divergence characteristic of price increase but volume decrease, with the 24-hour trading volume not significantly larger than during the previous rebound phase, confirming that this rebound is not driven by new bullish funds, but rather a technical repair under the games of existing funds, with the overall market still dominated by bears in a fluctuating pattern.
In addition, the death cross bearish signal formed by the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average has not been repaired, further solidifying the medium to long-term bearish structural foundation.
The 4-hour trend continues to exhibit weak characteristics, with prices repeatedly failing to effectively break through the pressure zone and instead forming a downward pressure pattern; there has not been a strong market characteristic of "key levels quickly reclaimed and stabilized" that should occur in a strong market, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. The current trend is only a phase correction within a downward trend, and the market has not yet shown clear reversal signals.
January 27 operation note $BTC
Bitcoin: 88300-88800 Short
Target: 87500-84700
#比特币行情分析
From the daily chart perspective, Bitcoin is still in a technical rebound phase after a decline, and has not yet formed an effective reversal pattern.
In terms of K-line patterns, the recent rebound failed to break through the core resistance zone of $94,000 - $98,000, and has not formed a higher high. The current price has fallen below the 30-day moving average and only received weak support at the 7-day moving average; the volume shows a clear divergence characteristic of price increase but volume decrease, with the 24-hour trading volume not significantly larger than during the previous rebound phase, confirming that this rebound is not driven by new bullish funds, but rather a technical repair under the games of existing funds, with the overall market still dominated by bears in a fluctuating pattern.
In addition, the death cross bearish signal formed by the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average has not been repaired, further solidifying the medium to long-term bearish structural foundation.
The 4-hour trend continues to exhibit weak characteristics, with prices repeatedly failing to effectively break through the pressure zone and instead forming a downward pressure pattern; there has not been a strong market characteristic of "key levels quickly reclaimed and stabilized" that should occur in a strong market, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. The current trend is only a phase correction within a downward trend, and the market has not yet shown clear reversal signals.
January 27 operation note $BTC
Bitcoin: 88300-88800 Short
Target: 87500-84700
#比特币行情分析
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