一哥交易经

A new week has begun.
The narrow-range consolidation of Bitcoin last week left a clear K-line indicating significant bull-bear divergence at the upper end of the broad consolidation structure, seemingly facing resistance there. Therefore, this week's key focus will be whether it can break through the upper boundary of the consolidation zone, thus triggering a larger-scale rebound.

This morning, it followed the futures rally, but showed clear weakness after reaching the resistance level near 925.
Midday today saw another false breakout, with a retest of the 905 support level, temporarily stabilizing and beginning a rebound.
Since returning to the consolidation structure, before breaking below the 905-895 support zone, we should still regard it as a range-bound upward movement, aiming to complete the larger-scale cup-and-handle pattern mentioned last week.

$BTC
After Friday's NFP data, there was a brief, symbolic up-and-down spike on the smaller timeframes, followed by a sustained downward move, with a final re-entry near the close.
The tariff ruling, which was originally expected to be completed on Friday, has been postponed to the 14th of this month.
The weekend saw a dull, narrow-range consolidation. The overall outlook remains consistent with last Monday.
As long as Bitcoin hasn't broken below the 905-895 range, the bullish cup-and-handle pattern remains increasingly likely to form.
After a subsequent breakout above 9w4, the daily-level pullback ends, and a new bullish market structure resumes.

The trading plan is now clear: with support and resistance levels holding, the risk-reward ratio remains higher for long positions.

BTC and US stocks completed a volume-driven bottoming out after the market close, followed by a weak intraday rebound and transition into consolidation. Intraday weak consolidation continues.
The major non-farm data will be released at 9:30, along with tariff rulings.

After the data release, focus on testing the support around 895 again. If this level holds, treat the subsequent move as a rebounding consolidation with an upward bias.
Serves as the key dividing line between bull and bear in the daily timeframe wide-range consolidation. If broken with high volume, the entire bullish rebound ends, and the short-term trend reverts to bearish. The next potential support for bulls lies around 80,800.

Resistance levels: 92500/94500/95490

Support levels: 90500/89500/88000

$ETH
After the 4H level retracement shows signs of reversal, intraday shifts into a low-level consolidation.

$BTC
SPX is clearly showing signs of stagnation at higher levels. It has started a natural pullback, dragging Bitcoin into a simultaneous correction.

Bitcoin's pullback is slightly deeper. The price is now testing the 90,000 psychological level. On the price action, the short side continues to show gradual volume increase, suggesting a potential breakdown below key levels.
During the evening US market session, if it breaks below this range with strong volume, the bullish cup-and-handle pattern will be invalidated. Close short positions quickly and take profits early, as the risk-reward ratio for short positions is too small.

The market is likely to transition into a broad-range consolidation. Watch for support around 895/880 to position for longs.

Resistance level: 92500/94500/95490

Support level: 89500/88500/86600

$ETH
Intraday correction continues, stabilizing around 3080 and gradually entering a narrow-range consolidation.

0108 Midday Update

Bitcoin follows the US stock market's high-level correction. After breaking below 915, the rebound failed to reclaim it.

Hourly-level correction continues. Watch the key support zone at 905-900 today, the pivotal point for bullish/bearish sentiment in the daily chart. The correction ends only after a bottom is confirmed. Otherwise, continue with a consolidation structure, potentially a bullish continuation. If broken, the daily chart will return to broad-range trading.

Resistance levels: 92500/94500/95490

Support levels: 90500/89500/88000

Following the overall market correction. The correction continues after breaking below 3200, with a rebound test at 3180 facing resistance.

Currently testing support around 3130. Monitor price action at current position. After hourly-level stabilization, treat the day with a range-bound strategy.

$BTC
Bitcoin has started a consolidation phase during the day. After showing clear stagnation at higher levels, a short-term correction has begun.
The overall strategy and outlook for the evening remain consistent with previous views. Wait for a rebound after a pullback and hold long positions on a steady recovery.
Watch for long positions around 910-905 during the pullback.

Resistance levels: 94500/95490/97500

Support levels: 91500/90500/89500

$ETH
Since the day before yesterday, the hourly divergence has shown signs of stagnation. Clear signs of profit-taking by bulls have emerged during the day.
A pullback is expected to unfold. Focus on the bottoming level in the evening. If the short-term level holds above around 3200, further upward rebound can still be anticipated.
If broken with high volume, watch for long positions around 3130/3080.

0107 Midday Update

BTC



US stocks hit a new high before closing. Bitcoin hourly chart surged again last night but failed to break above 94,000. It quickly dropped to the support zone around 915 and rebounded rapidly. Watch for a potential breakout and sustained move above 95,000 during the day. If broken, continue to expect bullish momentum upward.

In a smaller time frame, if it breaks below 925 again during the day, a pullback and consolidation phase is expected. Then look to position longs near 915/905. Short positions require quick execution and frequent profit-taking.

Upper Resistance: 94500/95490/97500

Lower Support: 91500/90500/89500

$BTC
The large cake continued its bullish震荡 upward movement yesterday. It reached a key level at 95 on the daily chart.
Profit-taking has started to emerge at the current price level. Going long at this point offers a very poor risk-reward ratio.
Be patient and wait for a pullback to find a good entry opportunity.

Resistance levels: 95490/97500/98360

Support levels: 91500/90500/89500

$ETH
ETH followed the large cake's upward move, but did not make new highs intraday, entering a narrow-range consolidation.
Overall strategy follows the large cake; currently avoid chasing long positions. Look to buy on pullbacks.

Resistance levels: 3250/3303/3356

Support levels: 3104/3080/3030

$SOL

After breaking through and stabilizing above the 133-135 area, a minor pullback tested the support level, which proved effective.

$BTC

After the early morning surge of Bitcoin, there was a slight reduction in volume followed by a narrow range of oscillation and consolidation.
Staying around 9w3 waiting for the start of the US stock market, as the concept stocks in the crypto sector are surging ahead of the US market open. Therefore, it is very likely that the bullish trend will continue to rise in the evening.
So the trading plan for the US stock market session remains very clear, still looking to buy on the dip.
As for shorting at the top, the timing is not right.
Bullish positions can be reduced whenever under pressure.

Upper resistance: 94050/95490/97500

Lower support: 91500/90500/89500

$ETH
The whole segment is rising. The strength of ETH is obviously weaker than Bitcoin.

BTC big pie followed the futures surge as expected. The rebound of the bulls continues.

The current position is close to the major pressure level of 94,000 on the daily chart, and the main thought for the day remains to buy on dips.

Resistance above: 94050/95490/97500

Support below: 91500/90500/89500

ETH

The bullish rebound continues, after a quick rise in the morning, there is an expectation of a pullback during the day. There are also obvious divergences starting to appear.

Do not chase the bulls at high positions. Treat it the same way with low buys on dips during the day.

Resistance above: 3250/3303

Support below: 3104/3080/3030

SOL broke through and stands above the resistance around 133-135.

The bulls continue to follow the market upwards. Pay attention to the pullback and retest in this range during the day, as long as the US stock market does not break below this range. The bulls will continue.