Several U.S. economic figures are expected this week. These could greatly influence investor sentiment and thus also affect the Bitcoin price.
Investors can strategically adjust their portfolios by trading around the following news reports during the week of January 12 to 17.
4 U.S. economic events to follow this week
The four major macroeconomic events take place between Tuesday and Thursday. Therefore, the chance of Bitcoin price volatility around these days is high.
The release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday is the week's most important macro event. Markets expect the decline in inflation to continue.
A CPI of approximately 2.7% on a year-over-year basis is expected (same as in November), with core CPI between 2.6% and 2.7%. This reflects the continued disinflation momentum at the end of 2025.
This follows a November report that came in lower than predicted. That sparked optimism about policy easing by the Federal Reserve in 2026.
If the result comes in lower than expected (i.e., lower inflation), the likelihood of a rate cut before the end-of-January FOMC meeting increases. This could weaken the dollar and allow riskier assets like BTC to benefit.
Bitcoin may rise after disappointing inflation figures, as lower values stimulate investment in 'digital gold' amid increased liquidity. If inflation is higher than expected, this could temporarily cause volatility and downward pressure, amplified by a strict Fed policy. This could push BTC toward the support level of $90,000.
Bitcoin was trading at $91,977 at the time of writing, with little volatility. This presents an opportunity for a further recovery rally should CPI come in lower. Overall, expectations for Bitcoin remain positive. Volatility is possible, but a positive outcome is expected under a dovish policy.
US PPI with November data
Another key U.S. economic indicator this week is the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday, showing November 2025 data. The U.S. PPI is considered a leading indicator of inflation at the wholesale level and often predicts developments in the CPI.
The expectation is a stable figure around 2.7% on a year-over-year basis (comparable to recent figures). The core PPI is also expected to remain around that level. This indicates limited inflationary pressure despite ongoing uncertainty about trade.
The PPI is important in shaping the Fed's policy. A figure lower than expected strengthens the narrative of declining inflation and potential further rate cuts. This would be favorable for riskier assets like Bitcoin, as liquidity improves.
This fits the pattern where lower producer inflation weakens the dollar and stimulates investment in riskier assets such as BTC.
If the figure comes in higher, concerns about persistent inflation (especially with the ongoing tariff debate) arise. This could lead to further rate increases and be negative for crypto.
Sentiment around Bitcoin on X remains cautiously optimistic. The PPI is seen as a secondary but confirming indicator following Tuesday's CPI. If the cooling inflation trend is confirmed, it could strengthen the recovery after CPI and help BTC stay above $92,000 or reclaim that level.
If the figure unexpectedly comes in high, short-term pullbacks toward $88,000-$90,000 may occur. Nevertheless, it's notable that Bitcoin has shown resilience recently amid macroeconomic data, suggesting the PPI will likely not be the sole trend driver, but could amplify risk sentiment if the figure comes in positive.
Next scheduled High Court Opinion Day
The Supreme Court may issue rulings this week on significant cases, such as the decision regarding Trump’s tariffs. The High Court’s opinion day on January 14 carries weight, as it is likely to determine the legality of President Trump’s national 'Liberation Day' tariff, implemented via the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
After no statement on January 9, markets (such as Polymarket, with a 27% chance) estimate the Court will reject these tariffs. Possibly, $133 billion to over $150 billion in collected tariffs may need to be refunded.
A decision on Wednesday could be a key macro catalyst for Bitcoin, especially if it is rejected:
Inflation expectations are declining (tariffs often lead to higher inflation)
Financial conditions are becoming looser
The dollar is weakening
Risk appetite is increasing
All these factors would be favorable for BTC as a hedge and could potentially trigger a short-term rebound, increased upward volatility, and capital inflow.
Conversely, if the Supreme Court chooses to uphold the Trump tariffs—which is less likely—trade tensions will persist. This would increase inflation risks and put downward pressure on riskier assets like BTC in the near term.
Claims for unemployment benefits
The Thursday report on claims for unemployment benefits provides the most current view of the health of the U.S. labor market. Recent data have shown resilience. Last week, there were approximately 208,000 claims, while over 210,000 were expected.
Forecasts are around 220,000, pointing to stable but not overheated conditions. These data—number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week—are important for the Fed.
Fewer claims (thus fewer layoffs) support the idea of a soft landing, meaning a significant rate cut may not be needed soon. This could limit the upside potential for BTC in the short term.
More claims could signal cooling employment, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut. This could act as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, as more liquidity is anticipated.
If the number comes in lower than expected, interest rates may rise and BTC could fall toward $88,000. If the figures are higher and sentiment is bullish, the positive momentum following CPI/PPI data may persist longer.
Traders see these figures more as confirmation than decisive, but they could increase volatility in a week full of inflation data.
