Bitcoin is approaching 2026 with an evident macro risk: President Donald Trump's tariff agenda. In 2025, crypto traders saw tariff announcements move prices as quickly as inflows into ETFs.
Several tariff tools are now ready for 2026. Some already have a date. Others depend on diplomacy or legal disputes. In any case, they can reverse sentiment from risk-on to risk-off in a matter of hours.
How Trump's tariffs moved the crypto market in 2025
The tightening of tariffs in 2025 has repeatedly triggered large waves of selling in the crypto market.
When Trump announced new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China at the beginning of February, Bitcoin dropped to its lowest in the last three weeks near $91,400. Ethereum lost about 25% in three days, and a large portion of the major tokens recorded declines exceeding 20% in a single day, as traders rushed to reduce risks.
Next came the tariff shock of April called 'Liberation Day' and the USA-China escalation. Bitcoin dropped slightly below $82,000 during the worst phase of the risk-off wave, along with a sell-off of crypto-related stocks.
However, once the White House hinted at possible pauses, the crypto market rebounded. In May, after the USA and China agreed to a temporary truce on tariffs, Bitcoin rose again above $100,000, while ETH surged strongly.
Digital asset funds also recorded new inflows during this phase of relief.
The strongest stress test came in October. After Trump suggested a new 100% tariff on Chinese imports linked to tensions over rare earths, Bitcoin plummeted by over 16% in a matter of minutes. Liquidations surged, with reports of $19 billion burned in forced closures across exchanges in a single day. As of December 2025, the market has yet to recover from this liquidation shock.
These tariffs foresee a new tax of 100% on all Chinese imports, unless negotiations lead to an agreement. Trump announced them in October 2025 and later postponed them, now aiming for the end of 2026.
If Trump were to reactivate them, markets would expect weaker growth and more persistent inflation. This combination could hit Bitcoin by tightening financial conditions, forcing traders to reduce leverage and dragging risky assets down synchronously.
2. An increase in global base tariffs
The President of the United States had already hinted at a possible broad increase in import tariffs, surpassing the baseline level of 10% introduced in 2025. Trump also campaigned on a much higher universal tariff, keeping this risk alive.
An increase in the base threshold would not be a one-day story. It would act as a constant pressure on risk appetite.
For Bitcoin, this usually implies more unstable rallies, shallower rebounds, and greater sensitivity to rate expectations.
3. Retaliatory tariffs on the digital services tax against Europe
These would be new tariffs aimed at countries that impose taxes on digital services or similar rules on US tech companies. Trump warned in 2025 that countries maintaining these taxes risk 'significant' tariffs.
If the USA were to hit EU or UK exports, global markets could face a downturn. The crypto market also tends to initially follow this risk-off dynamic.
In 2025, this dynamic contributed to translating headlines on tariffs into rapid crashes driven by liquidations.
4. Tariffs on pharmaceutical products that could rise up to 200%
These tariffs target brand-name or patented drugs imported, with penalties for companies that do not move production to the USA. Trump signaled very high rates in 2025 and presented the policy as a measure for reindustrialization.
If tariffs rose towards 200% in 2026, investors might view it as an inflationary stimulus. Bitcoin can attract 'hedge' discussions during inflation fears, but often trading initially moves in the opposite direction: risky assets are sold when liquidity tightens.
5. Extension of secondary tariffs related to exchanges subject to sanctions
The secondary tariffs would punish countries that purchase oil or goods from adversaries of the United States, even if these countries are not the direct target. Trump introduced this concept in 2025, applying it in a very visible way.
If Trump were to expand this tool in 2026, it could potentially involve more countries in a tariff war and increase uncertainty globally.
For Bitcoin, the main channel is volatility. Greater uncertainty usually leads to wider swings, more forced selling, and slower recoveries, unless liquidity improves.
