PokerTim

With Xmr exploding to all time high, that can only mean a few things.

1. Zec is bound to catch up, and is lagging due to recent resignation news.
(since Zcash is a better tech than Xmr, for those of you who argue otherwise, you can check for yourself)

2. Xmr's price is falling back down, since it cannot sustain a higher valuation than a better protocol (Zec).

that leads to the analysis of how much higher of a valuation of Xmr is to Zec.

Currently, the market cap (not fdv) of Zec is 6.83B while xmr is at 12.85B.

i would argue this leaves a lot of room for margin of safety.

side note:
the fact that Xmr is exploding, it means potential narrative shift to privacy again. ( I think tailwind for privacy is here, not just short term but to stay)

in terms of interest of "privacy" in google search, developed countries are more prevalent. (more potential buying power)

#zec #zcash #privacy

伟大的思想家们在他们的思维方式上有很多的共同点

在查理·芒格的一个视频片段中，他谈到了人类心理误判，他提到了斯坦福的守卫和囚犯实验。

在那个例子中，他说原因不仅仅是互惠倾向和角色理论（你被期望扮演好你的角色），还有一致性和承诺倾向，你越是作出某种行为，你就越是在你的头脑中强化那个想法。

这与乔丹·彼得森 所说的话产生了共鸣

那就是：你就是你的行为

他说，没有人足够聪明到，行为是一套，脑中个人的身份认同却是另一套

例如：你不可能每天都起不了床，脑中还觉得自己是个意志力十分强大的人

The great people actually share a lot in common in their thinking.

In one of Charlie Munger's clips, he speaks about the human psychology of misjudgement, he mentions the Standford experiment of the guard and prisoner.

In that example, he says it's not just RECIPROCATION TENDENCY and ROLE THEORY (you are expected to act out your role) that caused it, but also CONSISTENCY and COMMITMENT TENDENCY, the more you act out certain behaviour, the more you are pounding that idea into your head.

This resonates with what Jordan Peterson has said, which is: you are what you act out.

he says nobody is sophisticated enough to act one way and be another in their own head.

Peter Thiel's idea of evaluating a business.
a business create X% of value and capture Y%
X and Y are independent value.

most biggest innovations have their profits competed away, so the Y% is close to zero.
eg: railroad, airlines etc.

when he did paypal, he calculated most cash flow come from years later, thus it's important to evaluate whether business would still exit long after, rather than purely focusing on growth rate,
eg: a company can be doing growth at 100% a year and go out of business in 5 years time because of competition. thus it's not worth investing from an investor perspective.

therefore he likes business in monopoly because of Y% and business life expectancy.

that got me thinking, how do you know a business has defensible moat over the long run especially we live in a world where there is breakthrough in tech everyday, one way of him evaluating is whether the product has network effect.

while it's true, we simply do not know what is going to come along and new innovations can still disrupt everything,
eg: AI search to google search
(maybe not the best example as al search now complements google search to some extent )

there is a tweet from @naval
"Continuous learning is the only defensible moat."

doesn't this reach the conclusion of always investing in capable and ethical people, and that's almost the only determining factor?

tho in the book "poor Charlie's almanack", Charlie did say if you had to pick between good business and good management team, he would lean more towards good business.

I actually wonder if that is because he doesn't invest in businesses that have high multiples anyway (as he describes as having high margin of safety), therefore he leans towards the good business side, and it doesn't apply as much in tech companies.

Fortune rewards the patient.
$ZEC

I just found out someone used my name and icon to do a telegram group, i am not running any sort of telegram group, be careful and stay safe.

I find it quite funny that often many kols would talk about macro as if they were experts/ spend years studying it, marco is super complicated with many strings pulling in many different directions.

I personally would only listen to people like ray dalio that have remarkable achievements in life.

Zec shielded pool is making a comeback, open interst going up rapidly, we might be able to ride this momentum to all time high.
#zec #zcash

Bought this dip, in the form of BTC, majors have room to pump since the current price is quite far from all time high, r/r is decent, funding rate mostly close to 0, similar to april imo, just not as extreme.
#btc

Crypto depends very much on narrative, thus the strength of a particular narrative is very important.

How do we evaluate the strength of a narrative? If a narrative has been here since the dawn of time, that means the narrative is more true than the others because it has survived the test of time.

Privacy is that narrative

technology is evolving ever faster, we often don’t know which narrative to catch because everything could just change tmr, but yet, freedom, privacy, these topics are timely, and never go away, bitcoin rose because of freedom.

Now it’s up to us to contemplate privacy once again, in the form of Zcash. Use @zashi_app wallet for your own sake.

$Zec

The risk appetite is still very strong, S&P 500 actually turned green after a sudden drop, dips contiued to be bought, crypto is a bit underpriced relative to equity in my opinion. Will keep monitoring.

Bought this dip, in the form of robinhood in stock, safer to bid this dip in equity for the time being, will be looking to buy in crypto too.

Don’t be clicking buttons, there aren’t that many great opportunities to trade, stay patient guys.

The volume does speak for itself, truly incredible.

The only downside is that it’s clearly visible we see sell pressure at around 700$, but if we consolidate here by changing hands and btc ripping, then this would be a very succesful trade, the r/r is still solid.

Btw ignore all the noise, just look at data, a good rule of thumb is that traders that give you a thousand coins are often incapable traders.

Just like a theory that explains everything explains nothing
or
if everything is of equal importance, nothing is important.



#zec #zcash

It’s amazing to see all the fud about Zcash, the sentiment is not great yet the price is still holding up.

Let’s pray for a pump in btc, then we will have another massive rally in $Zec. Buckle up buddies.
#zcash #zec

Closely monitoring Zec’s data.
#zec #zcash

Congrats to the ones who followed my trades, because we got extra 3% in the last several days just from funding rate haha.
$Zec Zcash.

勇者們 為何要頂着這麼高的資金費率去做空？
我只能說多謝你們

The shorts are going to become fuel to fire for #zcash Zec’s price.
#zec

My thesis remains the same,
I SEE MORE UPSIDE TO ZEC

I have been closely monitoring Zec$ data, and I have to say it’s just impressive, and most people don’t know how to check Zcash data, which makes it even more effective.

Small recap, negative funding rate, price surge driven by spot, healthy dynamic.

BTC, ETH, BNB all down today, and $Zec remains strong,
BUY COINS THAT PERFORM BEST IN DOWNTURN.

Unless we have a bear market coming in already, $Zec is going to outperform.

DOUBLE DOWN ON YOUR WINNERS NOT LOSERS. (Peter Lynch)

Going to buy up some $Aster at the right timing.

Aster is a strategic product of Binance against hyperliquid.
(CZ openly said he thinks dex is going to take over in the future and if he were ten years younger, he would be building a dex)

and I think CZ saying him treating Aster like BNB, which might imply he is going to work inside Aster? He could be having second thought like: afterall im still young haha. @CZ
Who knows, but this is definitely a +EV bet in the long term.
#aster