GEMINI
I'm just an immature trader and a crypto lover ๐
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Market behavior in early 2026 shows a clear slowdown in activity from long term holders compared to the intense spending seen in the latter half of 2025. Profit taking has eased to levels that are typically associated with shallow bear market phases.
This change points to rising uncertainty and a more defensive mindset among investors. Historically, this kind of environment often appears during pauses within a larger bull cycle, although it can also represent the initial stage of a deeper market downturn as confidence temporarily fades.
This change points to rising uncertainty and a more defensive mindset among investors. Historically, this kind of environment often appears during pauses within a larger bull cycle, although it can also represent the initial stage of a deeper market downturn as confidence temporarily fades.
The flow of long held #Bitcoin into the market is losing strength. After a period of heavy distribution, net outflows have eased back from extreme levels, signaling that much of the older supply has already changed hands.
Buyers are gradually absorbing coins from long term holders, reducing the amount of supply sitting above current prices. With this overhang thinning out, overall market pressure appears more balanced.
Buyers are gradually absorbing coins from long term holders, reducing the amount of supply sitting above current prices. With this overhang thinning out, overall market pressure appears more balanced.
Still Fear ๐
#Bitcoin is trading in a fragile range between the Short Term Holder Cost Basis near $102.7k and the True Market Mean around $81.3k. Recent on chain data shows weakening demand, cautious derivatives positioning, and overall softening market strength, a setup that looks similar to early 2022. Although price is still holding slightly above the True Market Mean, unrealized and realized losses are rising, and long term holders are spending at elevated levels, adding pressure to the market.
The first important upside level to watch is the 0.75 quantile near $95k, followed by the STH Cost Basis. Until these levels are reclaimed, the True Market Mean remains the most likely support zone and potential bottom, assuming no major macro or liquidity shock hits the market.
The first important upside level to watch is the 0.75 quantile near $95k, followed by the STH Cost Basis. Until these levels are reclaimed, the True Market Mean remains the most likely support zone and potential bottom, assuming no major macro or liquidity shock hits the market.
Aggressive buyers have taken control of #bitcoin trading on #bybit with the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio jumping to 30.33. This shows overwhelming buy pressure, as market participants are prioritizing speed over price to secure long positions. Such behavior often indicates strong conviction from large traders.
When taker buys dominate this heavily, sellers struggle to push price lower. Still, extremes like this can invite volatility. If price fails to break higher, crowded long positions may unwind quickly. Keeping an eye on price reaction, open interest and funding rates will help confirm whether this buying strength can hold.
When taker buys dominate this heavily, sellers struggle to push price lower. Still, extremes like this can invite volatility. If price fails to break higher, crowded long positions may unwind quickly. Keeping an eye on price reaction, open interest and funding rates will help confirm whether this buying strength can hold.
#BTC moved from $80K to $90K, and UTxO Loss Supply dropped from 7.5M to 6.1M BTC. This does not mean new money entered the market or that the bottom was heavily bought. The drop happened because of a mark to market effect.
Each #UTXO has a creation price. When BTC trades above that price, the UTxO automatically shifts from loss to profit without any on chain transaction. So around 1.4M BTC moved out of loss on paper only, driven by price recovery, not real buying pressure.
Each #UTXO has a creation price. When BTC trades above that price, the UTxO automatically shifts from loss to profit without any on chain transaction. So around 1.4M BTC moved out of loss on paper only, driven by price recovery, not real buying pressure.
Over the last 24 hours, the market saw heavy liquidations as 71,713 traders were forced out of their positions. Total losses from liquidations stood at $169.51 million. The biggest hit came from a single #BTCUSD trade on Hyperliquid, valued at $2.51 million.
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๐ S&P 500 closes above 6,966 for the first time in history.
๐บ๐ธ Fedโs Bostic says inflation is still well above the 2% target and the Fed is ready to act to bring it down.
At the moment, the VDD Multiple for #Bitcoin remains positioned in the lower band, highlighting a phase of steady accumulation. Long term holders are largely inactive on the selling side, keeping distribution pressure muted.
Rather than showing signs of exhaustion, the market is smoothly absorbing earlier gains. This behavior points to a solid underlying structure, where supply is being taken up gradually and the overall setup stays supportive for further upside if buying interest remains consistent.
Rather than showing signs of exhaustion, the market is smoothly absorbing earlier gains. This behavior points to a solid underlying structure, where supply is being taken up gradually and the overall setup stays supportive for further upside if buying interest remains consistent.
Since January 2023, #Bitcoinโs on chain transfer volume has been steadily declining and this weakness has continued even as price moves higher, the current rally is not supported by a recovery in real network activity. Instead, the move is largely driven by FOMO, shaped by political backing for Bitcoin in the U.S., the launch of spot ETFs, accumulation by corporate treasuries, and an increasingly bullish media narrative promoted by major KOLs.
Most market participants are not actively transacting but are holding their coins, waiting for higher price levels where selling becomes more attractive. This behavior keeps on chain activity low while pushing prices up through reduced circulating supply, making the rally more narrative driven than fundamentally supported and increasing the risk of heightened volatility once sentiment shifts or profit taking begins.
Most market participants are not actively transacting but are holding their coins, waiting for higher price levels where selling becomes more attractive. This behavior keeps on chain activity low while pushing prices up through reduced circulating supply, making the rally more narrative driven than fundamentally supported and increasing the risk of heightened volatility once sentiment shifts or profit taking begins.
Still Fear ๐
#Bitcoin is trading around $89.9K, sitting below the short term holder cost basis at $98.9K, which keeps short term sentiment under pressure. Price is hovering near the Active Investors Mean at $87.7K, a zone that often reflects fair value during consolidation.
The True Market Mean around $81.0K remains an important support level, while the realized price at $56.2K shows that long term holders are still comfortably in profit. Overall, the structure looks more like consolidation than weakness.
The True Market Mean around $81.0K remains an important support level, while the realized price at $56.2K shows that long term holders are still comfortably in profit. Overall, the structure looks more like consolidation than weakness.
Still Fear ๐
Catch up on the news over the last 24 hours!
๐ฅ Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas says "spot bitcoin ETFs are coming into 2026 like a lion", as they recorded $1.2B inflows in just two days.
๐จ Stablecoin issuers generated around $5B in revenue from Ethereum deployments in 2025, per Token Terminal.
๐จ opBNB has completed its Fourier Mainnet hardfork, cutting block time from 500ms to 250ms for faster transaction finality.
๐บ๐ธ US community banks push to close GENIUS Act "loophole" allowing exchanges to offer stablecoin yields, claiming it undercuts traditional banking.
โก๏ธ $2.2T banking giant Barclays makes its first stablecoin investment, backing Ubyx.
๐ฅ $1.3T Morgan Stanley files an S-1 registration for an Ethereum Trust with the SEC.
โก๏ธ Rumble enables $BTC tipping for streamers via MoonPay wallet integration.
โก๏ธ Binance releases its 38th Proof of Reserves, user holdings rise to 618K $BTC, 4.17M $ETH, and 38.2B $USDT as of Jan 1.
๐บ๐ธ Donald Trump says he plans to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to address housing affordability.
๐บ๐ธ Wyoming becomes the first US state to issue a stablecoin, rolling out $FRNT on Solana.
๐ฅ S&P 500 futures hit 7,000 for the first time ever.
๐จ Ripple says it has no plans for an IPO, pointing to a strong balance sheet and prioritizing product expansion and acquisitions over going public.
๐บ๐ธ Trump-backed World Liberty Financial has applied for a national trust bank charter to issue and custody USD1 stablecoins.
๐ฅ Solana Mobile is set to launch its SKR token on January 21, 2AM UTC.
๐จ Stablecoin issuers generated around $5B in revenue from Ethereum deployments in 2025, per Token Terminal.
๐จ opBNB has completed its Fourier Mainnet hardfork, cutting block time from 500ms to 250ms for faster transaction finality.
๐บ๐ธ US community banks push to close GENIUS Act "loophole" allowing exchanges to offer stablecoin yields, claiming it undercuts traditional banking.
โก๏ธ $2.2T banking giant Barclays makes its first stablecoin investment, backing Ubyx.
๐ฅ $1.3T Morgan Stanley files an S-1 registration for an Ethereum Trust with the SEC.
โก๏ธ Rumble enables $BTC tipping for streamers via MoonPay wallet integration.
โก๏ธ Binance releases its 38th Proof of Reserves, user holdings rise to 618K $BTC, 4.17M $ETH, and 38.2B $USDT as of Jan 1.
๐บ๐ธ Donald Trump says he plans to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to address housing affordability.
๐บ๐ธ Wyoming becomes the first US state to issue a stablecoin, rolling out $FRNT on Solana.
๐ฅ S&P 500 futures hit 7,000 for the first time ever.
๐จ Ripple says it has no plans for an IPO, pointing to a strong balance sheet and prioritizing product expansion and acquisitions over going public.
๐บ๐ธ Trump-backed World Liberty Financial has applied for a national trust bank charter to issue and custody USD1 stablecoins.
๐ฅ Solana Mobile is set to launch its SKR token on January 21, 2AM UTC.
๐ค Riot sells $162M worth of Bitcoin as mining hash price drops.
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