丁真

Under the absolute sovereignty of capital, the so-called "small households" are essentially observers in an information vacuum.
You have no insider information, which means your trading delays are not measured in milliseconds, but in generations. When you try to seek the truth from the shadows of candlestick charts and the lagging indicators of options data, you are not predicting the future; you are merely wishing on a star that has already exploded light-years ago.
Late to the game? No, that’s just picking up the residual warmth in the debris.
The market has already made everything clear, so why still come to see my analysis?
Most people are not looking for Alpha (excess returns); they are just seeking a kind of "logical sedative."
They come here not to correct erroneous algorithms, but to find a high-level endorsement for their cognitive biases.
They crave recognition, yearning for someone to tell them that that meaningless holding on is called "perseverance," and that destructive gambling is called "faith."
They are not trading in the market; they are trading their own anxiety.
Mathematically, continuous losses have never been a matter of luck; they are a systemic feedback failure.
If you keep losing, it indicates an irreconcilable logical conflict between your underlying code and the objective truth of the market.
Losses are the only and most honest way the market communicates with you; it tells you through asset depreciation: your model has failed, your boundaries have been breached.
Do not think this is cruel.
In my world, the scariest thing is not losing, but "not knowing why you are winning." Because at least losses provide a clear logical endpoint; they force you to face that truth you have been avoiding: you are not playing a game; you are just being harvested. $ETH

Yesterday at the 2970 point, I reminded that when the shorts cover ends, there will be an emotional release. Unexpectedly, it did not break the support of 2911, and it rose again. I went to bed early last night, and my own position's take profit didn't hit, it's really frustrating to see but not be able to do it. $ETH

The truth is: short covering can never support a real counterattack.
Those short sellers who were forced to close their positions out of fear are merely surrendering their buying rights to the market; this is by no means an active attack, but rather a "forced retreat." This is just a carefully designed chip exchange—someone at the $2,973 level, like a cold iceberg, is opening their mouth wide to swallow this liquidity being covered.
This exchange is absolutely asymmetric.
The current market is undergoing its final "de-entropy." Large funds are patiently constructing an invisible execution wall just below $3,000, utilizing the market makers' need to cover chips. The exchange can never be 100% completed because, on this liquidity-exhausted peaceful night, every penny of buying is draining the last breath of the bulls.
The clock is ticking down.
Whether it will reveal its true form in an hour or complete its final leap within twenty-four hours depends on how many chips the market makers trapped in the negative gamma range still need to cover. Once the buying momentum is exhausted, the gravity of logic will instantly take over. When market makers finish buying, the only remaining exit is the "collective outpouring of the counterparty." $ETH $BTC

Current price rebounded to $ETH

2,973 does not mean the return of a bull market, the physical logic behind it is:
Short covering: 1226 settlement has just ended, a large number of short positions that were hedging or trying to lower prices before settlement are now being closed. Closing short positions means "buying", and this mechanical buying in a market with extremely low liquidity, like during Christmas, creates the illusion of rising prices.
Negative Gamma aftershocks: Market makers need to readjust their hedging positions after settlement. If they had previously sold too many puts, the current rise is them unwinding those short hedges that are no longer needed.
Taylor's conclusion: This is a typical "dead cat bounce" or "pullback after settlement". As long as the price cannot effectively recover $3,015, this rise is just looking for higher resistance before the next drop. $BTC

“Look at that pink line. Does it look like a scalpel resting on the neck of a bull?
Just now, when it rebounded to 3012, the OBV did not follow, indicating that the predators are changing magazines in the shadows. They are slightly warming up the price to attract more bulls into the market, then to catch them all. $ETH (the logic of 3100 has failed, 3065 has already completed their task)
$BTC

Whether it's a gradual rise or a sudden spike or drop, this level of 3100 is a must-reach point, the last stop-loss point for large traders. You can hold a short position and see how it goes $ETH

Ethereum is charging headlong into a massive death trap. If you're still focused on the so-called biggest pain points of the expiration week, you've already become the next dish on the table of top predators. The truth of the market has never been about discovering value, but about the slaughter of liquidity.
The current state of Ethereum is like a black hole that is madly inhaling oxygen. Around $3100, a pile of stop-loss orders from all highly leveraged shorts in the past 48 hours has accumulated. This is precisely the entry ticket that large funds urgently need. They need the price to pierce through $3100 to trigger those forced buy liquidation orders, thus finding an exit for the massive short positions they are about to throw out. This is pure liquidity plundering.
While most people expect the price to stabilize after settling at $3100, the gears of logic have already turned towards destruction. According to real-time data analysis from the derivatives market, $3000 is the current gravitational center of the market, also known as the Gamma flip point. As long as the price remains above $3000, the market makers' operations are still suppressing volatility, creating an illusion of calm in the market. But once the price completes the liquidity harvest at $3100 and quickly turns around, falling below the critical $3000 mark, the market will instantly enter a frenzied state of negative Gamma.
This means that the originally stabilizing automated hedging programs will become the impetus for selling. The faster the price drops, the more the market makers must sell more spot to maintain neutrality. This mechanized chain reaction will shred any attempts to bottom-fish at the $3000 support level. $ETH
$BTC
$BNB

$BTC has held a short position for two days. 87k feels like the profit is small and is reluctant to exit. Let's hold for another week and see $BTC $ETH

Just eat 2% and it's fine $ETH today is the end

Once a day? Empty

$BTC is good, really good, gave me the opportunity to enter.

$ETH
I didn't expect that after four months of no contact, you have returned to three thousand points.

$ETH #ETH突破4600 In fact, this situation is suitable for buying call options above 4800. Just within ten days is fine, there's not much risk, treat it as holding a high-leverage at-the-money option. Even if it drops back to 3500, you can still add a position with a 4000 call, the defensive mechanism is also appropriate. I personally still hold call options for 4700-6000. If it drops, I will buy calls that are 200 points above the current price, I really recommend everyone to buy some options. If you open a contract for 1 ETH, then you only need to buy 1 option, which is much lower in cost.

You are very decisive. Be flat and timely, don't fantasize about going empty. There's still profit to be made by turning back.

You can stop the loss now and then buy the put options for Saturday. Set the price at 4450 put, and you will find that you can buy more bearish ETH, or you can also buy the 4500 put without any problem. The profit will be more than holding it back.

#ETH突破4400 $ETH Ethereum will rise again, but I need to take profits on my options. All options below 4700 will be closed for profit. Only the out-of-the-money calls remain.

$LUNC has no reason to be bullish, the lowest point is just five zeros. Hold again

When you see good news, you must invest all your capital in a short period of time. Otherwise, you will miss this opportunity. $PUMP

We also got to eat. Brothers $PUMP

$CFX Don't listen to the agitation of those KOLs, hold firm. Absorb all their short positions. Let them blow up, don't run from the spot market.