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Reality check on “Alts are ATL (All time low)”

A lot of alts are deeply drawndown, and some individual names may be near multi year lows, but it’s not accurate to treat “alts” as one chart that’s universally at all-time lows. What is clear is the macro-unwind behavior: BTC dumped and majors like Ethereum and XRP got hit hard in the same move, which is typical when liquidity tightens.

What usually happens next: 3 scenarios

1) Base case: choppy bounce, not a “clean alt season”

If BTC stabilizes, alts often rebound because oversold conditions unwind.

But rallies can be sharp and short, then fade if macro pressure stays.

Market wide positioning right now still reads more like “Bitcoin season” than “alt season” (CoinMarketCap shows an Altcoin Season Index around 30/100, which is not an alt-season regime).

2) Bull case: alts rally hard

This happens if:

BTC stops dumping and starts building a base (volatility cools, fewer liquidation cascades).

Dominance stops rising and capital rotates back into majors and high-quality alts.

Macro headlines calm down (less “liquidity fear” in the tape).

3) Bear case: alts bleed or re-test lows

This happens if:

BTC makes another leg down.

ETH continues heavy downside momentum (it just printed a very large daily drop in the same risk-off move).

In this scenario, correlation stays high and “alts don’t get to hide” remains the rule.

My call, framed as probabilities without fake precision

Right now, the most reasonable expectation is tactical rebounds and chop first, then a clearer direction later. A true “good alts rally” becomes more likely only after BTC volatility cools and the market stops trading as one macro basket.

$ETH $BNB

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