CryptoQuant Quicktake

The average cost basis of permanent holders has never been lost throughout Ethereum's history. If this level holds at the current range, there is a high probability that ETH will stage another strong rebound.

Written by crypto sunmoon

The divergence continues, where market buy orders remain stronger than market sell orders, moving opposite to price action.

This pattern suggests a high probability of either a strong rebound in the near term or a transition from the downtrend to an uptrend phase.

Written by crypto sunmoon

The divergence where market buy orders are strengthening against market sell orders, moving opposite to price action, is appearing in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. but the signal is notably stronger in Ethereum.

Ethereum shows a high probability of a strong rebound in the near term, with the potential to outperform Bitcoin.

Written by crypto sunmoon

1️⃣ $80k - $73k LIQUIDITY LEVELS: The liquidity levels on the Binance SPOT order book are not proof of the whole Bitcoin universe and all Bitcoin liquidity. But the order book of the highest-volume exchange in the world is also a proxy for the whole Bitcoin market, and it should be used as a reference. On this order book, since late October - early November, there has been very dense liquidity (limit buy orders) between $80k and $73k. During all this time, even though Bitcoin rose from 80k to 100k, this liquidity was not removed. It kept waiting there in a very stubborn and persistent way.

2️⃣ $80k - $73k UTXO EMPTY SPACE LEVEL: We can support the same zone with an on-chain dataset. In the second image, the UTXO price histogram shows an empty space between $80k and $73k. Not many UTXOs were created at these prices. Because when price was there, there were not many transfers, not many realizations, and this area was more like a “transit zone” that was passed very fast. It was passed with low volume, without people understanding what happened, and without building cost basis there. As a result, this zone stayed empty like an “air pocket”. And there is a tendency for this empty space to be filled.

3️⃣ SPOT ETF INVESTOR AVERAGE COST: In the last image, we see that the average cost of the SPOT ETF investor (with a realized price approach) is at $79k. Since January 2024, when Bitcoin Spot ETFs started trading for the first time, Bitcoin price has never fallen below this average cost basis (except for short dips). For this reason, we should note it as an important level.

🌟 CONCLUSION: No one can know if price will go to this important zone between $80k and $73k, and no one can claim it with certainty. But when such important datasets point to the same zone, this is a risk on the table. Investors should include these levels in their risk scenarios when they make their game plan, and they should keep them in mind.

Written by CryptoMe

We’ve reached a point where current losses and profits are at levels typically seen during a bear market.


The situation does not seem to be improving and is pushing even more investors, and in this case, UTXOs into loss.

This chart illustrates the situation using a ratio that compares UTXOs in loss versus those in profit.

When this ratio becomes very high (🟣), it indicates that profits are starting to weigh on the market, increasing the risk of a sell-off as those profits may be realized.

Conversely, when losses become increasingly dominant, the ratio drops sharply.
When it reaches certain low levels (🔵), this has often coincided with the end of a correction or a bear market.

We are currently approaching that level.

This suggests that the majority of investors are now under significant pressure.


The lack of profit creates a negative environment and fuels fear across the market.

The short-term dynamic remains fairly bearish, however this type of context can also create interesting opportunities.

Written by Darkfost

📰 Daily Market Update:

📊 [Bitcoin ETF] Daily Netflow Trend

This chart tracks daily net flows into Bitcoin ETFs, measured in USD.

It is widely considered one of the clearest indicators of institutional demand.

📈 Positive netflow → real spot BTC buying → bullish pressure

📉 Negative netflow → BTC selling or exposure reduction → bearish pressure

🔬 What stands out:

📅 On January 29, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF recorded a massive negative netflow exceeding $4.2B.

📅 This is the first notable negative ETF flow since December 15, when outflows reached around $3.2B.

📊 [BTC] - Binance Whale to Exchange Flow

This chart shows the USD value of Bitcoin transferred by whales to Binance, aggregated over a 30-day period.

🔬 Key observations:

📅 Starting January 18, whale inflows to Binance began to rise.

📈 Total inflows increased from $2.74B on Jan 18 to $3.65B by Jan 30.

📉 During the same period, Bitcoin price dropped from above $95k to below $84k, roughly within 15 days.

📊 Fed Net Liquidity – Macro Pressure Builds

Fed net liquidity is generally calculated as the Federal Reserve's total assets minus the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) and reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) balances.

Why It Matters:

📈 Liquidity expansion → supports risk assets (stocks, Crypto)

📉 Liquidity contraction → pressures risk assets

🔬 Recent developments:

📅 On January 21, liquidity dropped from $5.8T to $5.71T.

📅 Additional contractions occurred on January 28 and 29, pushing liquidity down to $5.65T.

📈 When macro liquidity shrinks, speculative assets like Bitcoin often struggle to sustain strong upside momentum.

🧠 Final Conclusion

Historically, sharp ETF outflows often reflect profit-taking, or exposure reduction.

⏲️ This does not guarantee an immediate crash, but it raises caution flags for aggressive long positioning and suggests that upside may remain limited unless liquidity conditions improve.

Written by Amr Taha

The CEX Volume Ratio: Bitcoin vs. Altcoins (90d MA) has dropped to 2.24, marking its lowest level since December 2024. While a declining ratio usually signals “Altseason” during a bull run, in the current bearish environment, this metric carries a starkly different warning.

Contextual Analysis:

Given that Bitcoin has retraced from its October peak of

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123kto

83k, and the Altcoin Market Cap has shed nearly 35% (falling from

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2Tto

1.3T), the downward trend in this chart indicates the following:

Institutional Apathy: The drop in Bitcoin’s relative volume doesn’t stem from buyers flocking to Altcoins; rather, it highlights the exit of whales and institutional investors from Bitcoin markets. “Smart money” has stepped back, causing BTC volume to dry up faster than the speculative volume seen in Altcoins.

Sell-Side Pressure on Alts: Even though the volume ratio has shifted towards Altcoins, their market cap is collapsing. This implies that the activity in the Altcoin market is not accumulation, but rather panic selling and capitulation. The volume is high because retail traders are liquidating positions, not opening new ones.

Absence of “Flight to Safety”: Typically, in a standard bear market, capital rotates back into Bitcoin as a safe haven, causing this ratio to rise. The current downtrend suggests that traders are bypassing Bitcoin entirely and exiting the crypto ecosystem for stablecoins or fiat.

Conclusion:

The level of 2.24 is not a buy signal in this specific structure. It represents severe stagnation and a lack of strong hands defending Bitcoin’s price. Until we see a resurgence in Bitcoin dominance and volume—reversing this ratio trend—the probability of a sustainable market recovery remains low.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Derivatives data for Ethereum highlights a significant structural shift in market behavior. The Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has reached a new all-time high of approximately 0.675, marking the highest level ever recorded for this metric. This reading signals an unprecedented reliance on leveraged positions, reflecting a clear increase in risk appetite despite the absence of a strong directional price breakout.

Notably, this surge in leverage has occurred while Ethereum has been trading around $2,700, without decisive bullish momentum. This suggests that traders are increasingly deploying leverage tactically to amplify returns from relatively limited price movements, rather than committing large amounts of capital to long-term directional bets. Historically, leverage ratio readings approaching the 0.70 level are associated with heightened market fragility and a greater sensitivity to sudden price swings.

In contrast, Open Interest data presents a markedly different picture. Total Ethereum open interest has declined to approximately $16.4 billion, representing its lowest level since last November. This drop indicates a substantial reduction in the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, pointing to a contraction in overall market exposure rather than an influx of fresh capital.

The divergence between record-high leverage usage and declining open interest suggests that the market is undergoing a process of repositioning rather than broad participation. Fewer positions remain open, but those that do are carrying significantly higher leverage, resulting in a more concentrated and risk-sensitive liquidity structure.

Written by Arab Chain

• When analyzing the market, I start from the premise that there are different versions of the same price, mainly defined by the market context and recent price history. Depending on the version, I decide what to do and how much capital to allocate: long, short, and/or stay liquid.

In the present analysis, I compare Ethereum at 2.7K in July 2025 vs. 2.7K in January 2026:

• ETH 2.7K - July 2025 Context:

1) BTC’s price showed buying strength, closing above the AVWAP Trump’s Victory, the SMA50 weekly timeframe, and the AVWAP Fourth Halving.

2) ETH ETF holdings were increasing. It marked the first leg of its institutional narrative.

3) The U.S. Clarity pro-crypto law was pending a vote in the House of Representatives and had bipartisan support.

4) UPR Whales: 10-100K ETH = +0.43 and ≥100K ETH = +0.75. Whales had a comfortable unrealized profit cushion.

• ETH 2.7K - January 2026 Context:

1) BTC’s price is showing selling pressure, closing below the SMA50 weekly timeframe and the AVWAP Trump’s Victory, which has recently acted as resistance. Now, it is trading below the AVWAP Fourth Halving. The weekly close on Sunday is important.

2) Also, during this bull cycle, on-chain data show that this latest drop was the most painful for Bitcoiners.

3) ETH ETF holdings have been declining since their October ATH.

4) The U.S. Clarity pro-crypto law was delayed and recently advanced in the Senate Agriculture Committee on a party-line vote. Democrats expressed concerns over the lack of provisions against political profiteering.

5) UPR Whales: 10-100K ETH = +0.15 (-65%) and ≥100K ETH = +0.38 (-49%). Whales’ unrealized profit cushion has shrunk significantly compared to July 2025.

• It can be observed that ETH at 2.7K in July 2025 represented a version of this price level where taking a short-to-medium-term long had a relatively good probability of success, but today the options that seem most reasonable to me are: long-term DCA buys, staying liquid, and/or taking shorts.

Written by _OnChain

Analyzing Bitcoin's price action, the weekly timeframe reveals the RSI is below the 50-point mark, a zone dominated by sellers—an expected scenario in a bear market. The critical data point, however, is its proximity to the oversold region, currently marked at 36.78 points.

Historically, the last two times this indicator plunged below 30 points on this timeframe marked the bottoms of the bear markets in 2018 and 2022. The current approach to this level increases the probability of a sharper correction, pointing to the potential formation of a bottom.

On the fundamental front, after closing at $89.2K post-FOMC on January 28, 2025, BTC experienced a sharp 9% correction the next day, dropping to $81K. This move confirms a pattern observed throughout 2025: Federal Reserve meetings frequently trigger immediate adjustments in the asset's price.

THE THREE PILLARS OF RSI

◾ Divergences: When price and RSI move in opposite directions, they signal an imminent reversal. This is the indicator's most reliable alert.

◾ Swing Failures: A failed attempt by the RSI to break through an extreme zone (e.g., above 70) and its subsequent failure to surpass a prior swing indicate a weakening of the prevailing momentum.

◾ Dynamic Support and Resistance: In strong trends, the 50 line on the RSI acts as support (in an uptrend) or resistance (in a downtrend). Its breakout can confirm shifts in market sentiment.

When validated by price action, these behaviors turn the RSI from a basic momentum gauge into a strategic tool for anticipating market moves.

CONCLUSION

The weekly RSI nearing the 30-point level triggers a historical signal. In the past two bear markets, the bottom was confirmed only when the indicator broke below this barrier, recording 29.73 (12/10/2018) and 25.74 (06/04/2022 - 07/13/2022). Currently at 36.78, the market nears the threshold of a decisive moment. This technical setup, combined with macroeconomic pressure, places the market on the brink of a critical test.

Written by GugaOnChain

Global demand in the crypto market remains weak.

For the past two weeks, ETFs have been recording continuous outflows.

The DATS that were previously racing to launch BTC reserves have gone quiet, aside from Strategy, and on the stablecoin side, conditions are not improving either.

The change in USDT market cap has now reached levels as low as those seen at the exit of the bear market, following a sharp decline.

The 60-day average change in USDT market cap has dropped from $15.9B at the end of October to less than $1B today.

This highlights the current lack of incoming liquidity in the crypto market and a clear form of investor disinterest.

While such periods of low interest can create attractive opportunities, their duration is difficult to assess.

In the short term, the trend continues, with the 60-day average market cap decreasing by more than $1B in just four days.

For now, there is no clear signal that would justify a strong and sustained recovery in BTC.

Patience seems to be required.

Written by Darkfost

• When analyzing the market, I start from the premise that there are different versions of the same price, mainly defined by the market context and recent price history. Depending on the version, I decide what to do and how much capital to allocate: long, short, and/or stay liquid.

In the present analysis, I compare Ethereum at 2.7K in July 2025 vs. 2.7K at present:

• ETH 2.7K - July 2025 Context:

1) BTC’s price showed buying strength, closing above the AVWAP Trump’s Victory, the SMA50 weekly timeframe, and the AVWAP Fourth Halving.

2) ETH ETF holdings were increasing. It marked the first leg of its institutional narrative.

3) The U.S. Clarity pro-crypto law was pending a vote in the House of Representatives and had bipartisan support.

4) UPR Whales: 10-100K ETH = +0.43 and ≥100K ETH = +0.75. Whales had a comfortable unrealized profit cushion.

• ETH 2.7K - Current Context:

1) BTC’s price is showing selling pressure, closing below the SMA50 weekly timeframe and the AVWAP Trump’s Victory, which has recently acted as resistance. Now, it is trading below the AVWAP Fourth Halving. The weekly close on Sunday is important.

2) Also, during this bull cycle, on-chain data show that this latest drop was the most painful for Bitcoiners.

3) ETH ETF holdings have been declining since their October ATH.

4) The U.S. Clarity pro-crypto law was delayed and recently advanced in the Senate Agriculture Committee on a party-line vote. Democrats expressed concerns over the lack of provisions against political profiteering.

5) UPR Whales: 10-100K ETH = +0.15 (-65%) and ≥100K ETH = +0.38 (-49%). Whales’ unrealized profit cushion has shrunk significantly compared to July 2025.

• It can be observed that ETH at 2.7K in July 2025 represented a version of this price level where taking a short-to-medium-term long had a relatively good probability of success, but today the options that seem most reasonable to me are: long-term DCA buys, staying liquid, and/or taking selective shorts.

Written by _OnChain

On January 28, 2026, XWIN Research analyzed the simultaneous decline in ERC-20 stablecoin supply and exchange reserves, noting reduced short-term buying power while cautioning against premature bearish conclusions. Subsequent data suggests that the drop in stablecoins has multiple interpretations.

A key indicator is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which measures stablecoin purchasing power relative to Bitcoin. The SSR has fallen to 12.57 from the 18–19 range, indicating that liquidity has shifted from being deployed into BTC to remaining on standby. This implies capital is not leaving crypto, but waiting. (Oro Crypto @oro_crypto)

This view contradicts the narrative that Bitcoin selling is directly financing gold’s rally. Large investors typically diversify across multiple asset classes, and the lower SSR supports the idea that liquidity remains within the crypto ecosystem rather than exiting it.

Cross-chain data reinforces this. Between January 19 and 20, 2026, USDT on Tron (TRC-20) increased by about 1 billion, while Ethereum-based stablecoins declined by roughly 6.5 billion in total. The timing suggests migration across networks, not redemption into fiat.( Teddy @TeddyVision)

USDT often moves to cheaper networks to support derivatives and OTC activity, while USDC is more closely tied to spot trading and on-chain settlement. A simultaneous decline in both on Ethereum points to weaker spot demand and more defensive positioning.

In short, falling ERC-20 stablecoin supply is bearish for Ethereum on-chain activity and neutral-to-bearish for spot-driven risk, but it does not indicate capital fleeing crypto. Liquidity is still inside the system—changing rails and waiting for clearer opportunities.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

The 7-day Moving Average (SMA7) of the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) for Bitcoin on Binance has surged to a critical level of 0.188. This spike is occurring precisely while Bitcoin’s price is undergoing a significant correction, reaching its lowest levels in recent months (trading around $82.9K).

Key Takeaways:

High Risk Appetite vs. Weak Price: The divergence between rising leverage and falling prices is a classic “bearish divergence” in the derivatives market. It indicates that despite the price weakness, traders are aggressively increasing their leverage positions.

Overheated Derivatives Market: An ELR of 0.188 suggests that the Open Interest is exceptionally high relative to the exchange’s reserves. This implies that the market is heavily over-leveraged.

Potential for Volatility: When leverage peaks during a price downtrend, it often signals that traders are either “buying the dip” with high leverage or aggressively shorting. This setup usually precedes a violent Liquidation Cascade.

Conclusion:

The market is currently in a high-tension zone. The combination of peak leverage and local price lows suggests a “squeeze” is imminent. Whether it is a Short Squeeze or a Long Liquidation event depends on the dominant side, but volatility is guaranteed. Caution is advised.

Written by CryptoOnchain

For a long time, Exchange Netflow on the chart has been predominantly negative. In other words, ETH is being withdrawn from Binance. Under normal conditions, this leads to a reduction in selling pressure and is considered a positive signal for price in the medium term. But the price has declined. So why?

1. Selling may be occurring more in derivatives than in the spot market.

Short-oriented leveraged positions are dominant. Netflow measures spot supply, but price is mainly determined in margin and derivatives markets.

2. ETH may be leaving Binance, but indirect selling can occur through OTC desks, prime brokers, other exchanges, and the Layer-2 ecosystem.

In other words, most of the selling is taking place outside Binance.

3. When price declines while netflow remains negative, we can say there are no sellers on Binance, but buyers are also cautious.

Since Binance is the exchange with the strongest liquidity, large investors usually gather there. Therefore, we understand that there are no strong inflows both on Binance and on the ETF side.

4. Supply is decreasing, but demand is falling faster.

It is especially important to take Binance data seriously in Netflow charts because the deepest spot and derivatives liquidity exists on this exchange. Its liquidation mechanism is more stable compared to competitors, flash liquidation risk is lower, and institutional transactions appear on Binance first. Therefore, Binance shows cash flows most clearly and at the earliest stage. The outflows we see on this chart represent real investor behavior.

Netflow averages SMA(50) and SMA(100) have broken downward and remain persistent in negative territory. Price is being pressured due to short positioning and macro uncertainty. This type of structure has historically formed just before a bottom. Therefore, a new bottom may be near.

Written by PelinayPA

I believe we are navigating a difficult market phase, characterized by negative funding rates contrasting with rising leverage on Binance. My attention is drawn to Bitfinex’s stablecoin reserves crossing the 230,000,000 mark on January 25th, echoing the signals from 2025 where this threshold preceded distinct shifts—specifically, a downturn in late January versus a sustained rally in early July. Although I am mindful that the mid-June 2022 pattern failed to reverse the trend, resulting in further downside, the striking timing coincidence with last year's late January signal suggests to me that we are once again on the verge of a major market transition.

You can find the article from that time here:

https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/679a145637939776ed3d1412-Bitfinex-Reserve-Binance-Funding-Rate-Thresholds-Crossed-Is-This-the-Bottom

Written by nino

Data on monthly Bitcoin futures trading volume across all exchanges indicate a clear slowdown in derivatives market activity, with total volume in January declining to approximately $1.09 trillion, marking the lowest level recorded since 2024. Despite this overall contraction, trading activity remained highly concentrated on major platforms. Binance led the market with futures trading volume of around $378 billion, followed by OKX at approximately $169 billion, and Bybit with nearly $156 billion. This concentration suggests that while aggregate participation has declined, liquidity continues to be anchored within a small group of dominant exchanges.

The drop to the lowest monthly volume since 2024 reflects a noticeable reduction in trading intensity compared with earlier phases of the cycle, when monthly futures volumes frequently exceeded $2 trillion. This decline points to a moderation in short-term speculative activity and a pullback in aggressive positioning, particularly among participants who rely heavily on leverage. Such phases are commonly observed after extended periods of elevated volatility, as traders reassess risk exposure and adjust positioning strategies.

Importantly, the nature of this volume contraction appears orderly rather than abrupt. The gradual decline suggests a controlled reduction in market participation, rather than stress-driven liquidations or forced deleveraging. Large participants seem to be selectively scaling back exposure, leading to lower turnover without destabilizing market conditions.

Written by Arab Chain

On-chain cycle indicators suggest Bitcoin is moving into a cooling phase rather than a full capitulation. Despite price weakness from recent highs, extreme cycle conditions remain limited, indicating the market is releasing excess rather than undergoing a structural reset.

The Bitcoin Cycle Extreme Oscillator shows that recent drawdowns were not accompanied by persistent extreme spikes. Historically, cycle tops are marked by clustered and sustained extreme readings, reflecting synchronized speculative excess. In contrast, recent signals appeared briefly and faded quickly, pointing to localized profit-taking instead of broad cycle exhaustion. The declining 30-day average further supports gradual pressure release.

This view is reinforced by the Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index, which currently sits near the mid-range (~28–30%), well below levels associated with euphoric bull extremes. Bull extreme signals have weakened since the Q3 peak, while bear extremes are present but remain scattered rather than concentrated. Volatility percentile has risen from compressed levels, suggesting redistribution rather than panic-driven deleveraging.

From a valuation perspective, the Bubble vs Crash Market Structure shows Bitcoin trading below its adjusted MVRV baseline, but not in deep undervaluation territory. Previous crash regimes required sustained MVRV breakdowns accompanied by aggressive downside acceleration, which is not yet evident.

Overall, on-chain data points to a market cooling without systemic stress. Cycle momentum has weakened, but the lack of synchronized extreme signals suggests Bitcoin remains in a transitional macro phase rather than a confirmed bear market reset.

Written by CryptoZeno

As mentioned in the last post, $ETH have reached the support line.

$ETH is down to $2,682. This price zone is the realized price of the $ETH accumulation address.

The $ETH whales' buying price is a very strong support level. This level is currently providing support.

$ETH whales' buying continues to be strong.

As long as the $ETH accumulation group do not give up, the current price level is likely to be supported.

Written by CW8900

Data on changes in Bitcoin whale balances (addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC) show a clear structural shift in the behavior of major investors. Recent readings indicate a notable acceleration in the pace of accumulation compared with previous periods, reaching the highest level since 2024. Total whale holdings have risen to approximately 3.204 million BTC, confirming a renewed return of long-term interest from this influential group.

Meanwhile, whale activity data on the Binance platform show a notable increase in the share of whale-driven activity. The indicator reached nearly 0.65 during January, its highest level since last November This dynamic often points to active position management, in which whales allocate a portion of their liquidity to hedge against volatility, rotate capital across different financial instruments, or open and close derivative positions without abandoning their core long-term holdings.

In terms of flows, the data show a strong 30-day change of approximately 152,000 BTC, reflecting a clear acceleration in net accumulation. and suggests that the current buildup is not merely a short-term move, but part of a broader repositioning cycle. By contrast, the 7-day change registered a positive reading of nearly 30,000 BTC, indicating that positive momentum remains intact even across shorter timeframes.

the current on-chain and exchange-level data suggest that Bitcoin is entering a phase of structural consolidation driven by large holders rather than speculative excess.

Written by Arab Chain