加密龐克

Technical aspect: To get straight to the point, after the bloodbath drop hitting 60000 this week and bouncing back, a large portion of the spot buy orders around 60000 have already been executed. Currently, for two consecutive days, it has closed above the key level of 69138. If there is a continuous slow rebound, we still need to pay attention to the possibility of being blocked again near 74000. The range of 69138 to 74000 remains a significant obstacle above.

Another common question from friends is about the V reversal. This week, the weekly chart has created a lower low. After the larger market framework has shifted, it will be relatively difficult to see it perform a V reversal. First, it must be able to close above 74000 within a day, that is, before the weekly candlestick closes. If that happens, there will be a chance to continue bouncing back, and the overall structure may change, meaning that the low of 60000 is likely to be the lowest point before a drop, but this is not without difficulty.

Today, there are two main points. Firstly, if you are one of those who have been averaging down in the key range of 59567 to 61097 based on our videos over the past few days, my suggestion is that especially if you are trading contracts, then the range of 69138 to 74000 is a price where you must at least take some profits in batches, as this is also the most likely area to face resistance on the rebound.

The second point is to pay attention to the weekly K closing. Unless the weekly K closes above the key level of 74000, this can still be considered a sharp drop rebound. If we want to see a V-turn established, 74000 must be reclaimed, which makes it interesting. But let's focus on it for now.

It's so exaggerated... Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin has dropped below the 1011 flash crash.

The Binance fee has indeed reached an exaggerated -0.013%, the last time it was this low was during 1011.

However, this time is different as everyone is looking for the reasons behind the decline, but they can't find any. Most of the explanations are cobbled together, and the most common thing people say is this "100% man-made."

The decline may not need so many reasons; everyone should know how poor the liquidity in the crypto circle has been recently. Additionally, the STH to Exchanges Sum indicates that the amount of BTC transferred to exchanges in the last 24 hours reached a historic record of 88,000 coins. The panic selling pressure of nearly 6 billion USD from short-term holders has suddenly hit a market that already had poor liquidity. I think this might be the main reason for the crash.

Get straight to the point, earlier BTC fell again, and Bitcoin has now touched the key level of 74000. In terms of operation, I opened a long position here according to the plan when it was being reclaimed, and a spot order I placed a few days ago at 74000, 69138... has already been executed.

This is a very important high-level key support zone, so the next reaction will determine the key for a "small-scale bear market or a big bear market for 3-5 months." If it is to bounce back, we must at least see a reclaim of the previous low point at 80600.

Let’s also take a look at the data part (Figure 2). It is very clear that the number of purchases by large whales in recent times has not been too many, all around 1000-2000, but all three occurrences happened when there was a sharp drop back to almost the lowest point at that moment.

Currently, Bitcoin is still a bit short of touching the key level of 74000. Earlier, after the CME opened, BTC indeed left a daily level gap (Figure 1), and this gap is huge, over 2700 USD. According to all historical data, as long as it's a daily level gap caused by a decline, the probability of it being filled is 100%. For gaps caused by a sharp rise, the filling probability is about 90% or so.

Currently, this bearish flag that we have been closely monitoring for the past few weeks is almost reaching its symmetrical fulfillment point (Figure 2). When calculated proportionally, it just happens to be near the key level of 74000. Here, it is also a super large key support range of 69138~74000. This point is very critical, as it may determine what kind of market movement we will see in the coming months or even more than half a year.

Technical aspect: To get straight to the point, it has already hit 75600, just one step away from the satisfaction point of this large-scale bear flag at 74000 (Figure 1). In the latest video, I discussed my upcoming plans in detail. In simple terms, all major key levels below 74000 are where I will start buying spot. Here are a few more important levels: 73949, 69138, 61097; these are the places where I have already placed orders.

Especially here at 73949~69138, this is what we mentioned before, the boundary between a large-scale small bear market and a big bear market (Figure 2). It can be understood that as long as it breaks, the time needed for consolidation will be significantly extended. However, before breaking, it is still considered a small-scale bear market lasting 3 to 5 months.