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#USCryptoReserve
What to know:
The White House crypto summit could trigger heightened trading activity.
Rumors suggest Trump may announce a strategic BTC reserve at the summit.
Options markets indicate potential volatility in BTC, ETH, and SOL post-summit.
If you plan to disconnect from trading screens this weekend, think twice. Analysis from digital assets trading firm STS Digital suggests that Friday's White House crypto summit could lead to heightened activity.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who promised a strategic crypto reserve in the lead-up to the November election, will host top players from the industry, including Coinbase, Chainlink and Exodus
The latest rumor suggests that at the summit, Trump may announce the creation of a strategic bitcoin (BTC) reserve, shifting away from the Sunday disclosure that hinted at the basket of altcoins like XRP, Cardano"s ADA and Solana (SOL) along with BTC and ether (ETH) as the core.
The pricing of BTC, ETH and SOL options on Deribit suggests traders are bracing for a volatile weekend in the aftermath of the summit..
Options markets are showing the nerves (and illiquidity) going into the weekend and the raft of potentials. The Friday vs Saturday IV [implied volatility] Spread is nearly 25 vols wide across the board with Friday expiries missing the expected variance," Jeff Anderson, head of Asia at STS Digital, told CoinDesk.
Implied volatility, a metric derived from the pricing of options, indicates how much traders expect the asset's price to fluctuate over a specific period. Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date.
Early Thursday, bitcoin options expiring Friday suggested an annualized implied volatility of 56%, while those expiring on Saturday traded at 80% volatility. The 24-point gap indicates expectations for increased price turbulence following Friday's summit.
A similar pattern was seen in ether and solana options.
BTC, ETH, SOL implied and forward volatilities and breakevens. (STS Digital)
BTC, ETH, SOL implied and forward volatilities and breakevens. (STS Digital)
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The table shows implied and forward volatilities for BTC, ETH, and SOL and straddle breakevens (expected price swings).
Forward volatility is calculated by comparing the implied volatility of options with different maturities and indicates the expected volatility over the period between the two specified expiration dates, in this case, Friday and Saturday.
The 105% BTC forward volatility translates to a 5.5% price movement expected between Friday 08:00 UTC and Saturday 08:00 UTC. (Deribit options expire at 08:00 UTC).
In other words, BTC could swing nearly $5K in either direction following the summit. ETH and SOL volatilities are pricing a move of $135 and $13, respectively.
Per Anderson, expectations for large volatility often end up in disappointment.
"Quite often, large expected volatility like this is a disappointment in crypto as expectations > reality. That said, the breakevens do not feel large and options are by far the safest play for directional views in this environment," Anderson said, pointing to risks involved in taking directional bets in options expiring Mar. 14.
"We would expect option prices further out in tenor to come lower after the event as fears subside and volatility decays," Anderson noted.$BTC
BTC
90,830.18
+0.26%
$ETH
ETH
2,283.4
+2.47%
$XRP
XRP
2.5918
+3.64%

XRP
2.5918
+3.64%
#TrumpCongressSpeech #USCryptoReserve

#TrumpCryptoOrder $BTC #BTC☀️
Bitcoin’s price action is mimicking the 2016 to 2017 cycle and could hit a top of $150,000, says Glassnode lead analyst James Check.

Check said in a Jan. 23 episode of the Theya podcast that $120,000 to $150,000 is what he would call the “topping cloud” for Bitcoin ( BTC ), and any level above that likely won’t hold for long.

Bitcoin likely won’t hold at $150,000
“We can absolutely bust out the top end of that, with a very, very low probability of staying at the top end,” Check said.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $103,019, and Check added that the “average guy” is “quite profitable” if it reaches $120,000 — significantly more so if it reaches $150,000.

“Above that is speculative fever, and I probably would think if we go above it, we will go back down through it,” he said.

Bitbo data shows Bitcoin’s short-term holders have paid an average of $90,349 per BTC, while long-term holders have paid an average of $24,627.

The cryptocurrency hitting $150,000 would give short-term holders an average of 66% profit and long-term holders an average of 509% profit.

Bitcoin’s long-term holder realized price is $24,627. Source: Bitbo
“A lot of comparisons” to 2017 cycle
Check said, “There are a lot of comparisons” between the current crypto cycle and the cycle between 2016 and 2017.

“The way I would describe 2016-2017, very spot driven, we didn’t actually have derivatives, stablecoins weren’t really significant,” he said.

Bitcoin was consolidating and fluctuating around $800 and $1,600 in the first half of 2017 before surging in the second half to hit a peak of $19,783.

If Bitcoin continues to follow the 2017 pattern, the asset may stay in a consolidation period until May.

“We’re getting these nice moderate rallies, nice corrections, moderate rallies, cool down,” Check said.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $104,120, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Bitcoin is trading at $104,120 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap
Other traders say Bitcoin might not hit its 2025 peak until later in the year.

In a Jan. 23 X post, pseudonymous crypto trader Bitquant stated that regardless of Bitcoin’s next move — even if a price correction occurs — those claiming Bitcoin has “topped out” at its current level are “simply setting themselves up to miss out on significant gains.”

Meanwhile, crypto trader Braver shared the popular view that the first quarter of 2025 will see a crypto bull run, but he doesn’t think it will be the biggest one of the year.

“The bull market will rally strong to its true macro cycle top in Q4 2025,” they said in a Jan. 23 X post.

The trader explained that “a true bear market will commence for 2026.”

Crypto trader Mags said that since Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $109,000 on Jan. 20, if history repeats, it could reach its next one within 230 to 330 days — likely between July and October.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

#TrumptMarketInsights #TrumpMarketWatch #BTCBreaksATH

Bitcoin briefly surged above $109,000 on Jan. 20, breaking its previous high above $108,000 recorded in mid-December 2024.

The price of Bitcoin surged by more than 6% in minutes to a new high ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration as president of the United States.

Bitcoin briefly surged above $109,000 on Jan. 20, breaking its previous all-time high above $108,000 recorded on Dec. 17, 2024.

According to data from TradingView, BTC hit a new high of $109,036 at 6:55 am UTC before dropping below $108,000 in minutes.

Bitcoin traded at $108,342 at the time of writing and is up around 3% over the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinGecko.

Bitcoin hits new ATH hours before Trump will be sworn in as POTUS

Bitcoin’s new high came hours before Trump was to be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States at 4:00 pm UTC.

Trump’s inauguration has been a major catalyst for bullish action in cryptocurrency markets. His Nov. 6 presidential victory fueled a massive crypto rally, leading to Bitcoin surging above $100,000 for the first time in early December 2024.

Growing optimism around Trump’s presidency in the crypto community is largely attributed to his ambitious crypto-related plans, including a potential strategic Bitcoin reserve for the US and expected crypto deregulation.

Sharp spike in odds of BTC reserve in the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency

Bitcoin’s latest record high came amid a sharp increase in speculation that Trump will establish a strategic BTC reserve within his first 100 days in office.

Odds of a US BTC reserve in Trump’s first 100 days saw sharp volatility on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket before BTC hit its new high.

Polymarket saw a sharp rise in the odds of Trump creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve soon after taking office. Source: Polymarket

The odds on Polymarket began to climb at around 5:30 am UTC, surging to a multimonth high of 69% at 6:30 am UTC, just minutes before the BTC price pumped.

Trump began selling his newly launched memecoin, Official Trump (TRUMP), on Jan. 18. Launched on Jan. 17, the TRUMP token saw record-breaking growth, which may have multiplied Trump’s net worth by as much as 5x.