A US government shutdown is basically confirmed at 12:00 AM ET tomorrow.
Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing an 86% chance.. US government shutdown as funding expires at midnight Friday.
This is a data blackout.
Here’s what we could be facing:
– The Jobs Report (NFP): The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is part of the shutdown. If this drags on, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report gets delayed.
– Inflation Data (CPI/PPI): The data collectors for the Consumer Price Index stop working. This means we won't know if inflation is going up or down.
– GDP & PCE: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) typically halts operations, meaning no GDP updates and no PCE (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge).
– CFTC Reports: The "Commitment of Traders" (CoT) report, which tells us how the big money is positioned, stops coming out.
– The SEC halts mostly everything except emergency enforcement.
– IPO & M&A Stalled: New IPOs and merger reviews get put on hold. If you’re waiting for a deal approval, good luck.
– Historically, shutdowns shave about 0.1% to 0.2% off GDP growth for every week they last.
The longer this lasts, the more the "uncertainty discount" gets priced into stocks.
Anyway, I’ll keep you updated on what he does.
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines $BTC $ENSO
🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP EXPECTED TO NAME KEVIN WARSH AS NEXT FED CHAIR. $BERA
President Trump is expected to announce his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair this morning, Friday, January 30, 2026. 👇
Markets are already pricing it in ; Polymarket odds show a 93% probability that Kevin Warsh will be selected.
The announcement comes with Jerome Powell’s term set to end in May 2026. Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for not cutting rates aggressively enough, and Warsh is widely viewed as more dovish on rate cuts and more closely aligned with the President’s economic agenda.
If confirmed, this could mark a major policy shift at the Fed ; and a potentially bullish setup for markets. 📈 $ENSO $BIFI