BlockVibe

🚨THIS IS WHEN CRYPTO MARKET WILL BOTTOM
Right now most people think Bitcoin already bottomed at $60K.
And they are wrong.
That was likely just a local bottom, not the final cycle low.
Let’s break down what actually needs to happen before the real bottom forms.
LIQUIDITY: THE BIGGEST DRIVER
Every major crypto bottom in history has happened when U.S. liquidity starts expanding again. Right now the opposite is happening.
YoY liquidity growth in the U.S. is still negative. That means money is being drained out of the system, not added.
When liquidity is falling:
Crypto sells off first.
Stocks sell off too.
Risk assets stay weak.
We are seeing exactly that right now.
The liquidity being provided by the Fed is simply not enough compared to what markets need to turn bullish again.
This is also why:
- Corporate bankruptcies are rising.
- Consumers are defaulting on debt.
- Economic stress is building.
Until liquidity turns positive, a full market bottom is very unlikely.
MAYER MULTIPLE: NOT AT BOTTOM LEVELS YET
The Mayer Multiple shows whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold compared to its long-term average. At previous cycle bottoms, this metric dropped below 0.6 every time. Right now it is around 0.67.
That means: the market is oversold… but not at historical bottom extremes. So again, more like a temporary bottom, not the final one.
LONG TERM HOLDER REALIZED PRICE
This is one of the most reliable bottom indicators. It shows the average price where long term holders bought their Bitcoin.
Historically, Bitcoin cycle bottoms form very close to this level. Right now this sits around $41K, and BTC is nowhere near it.
That gives us a very important clue:
The real bottom zone is likely somewhere near a long term holder cost basis.
MINING ELECTRICAL COST
Mining cost acts like a bear market floor. Currently, electrical production cost is around $57.5K.
But during bear phases, this cost usually drops 15–20%.
If that happens again:
Electrical cost falls to roughly $45K–$46K.
When multiple bottom indicators converge in the same zone, that zone becomes extremely important.
TECHNICAL + INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND ZONE
From a pure market structure perspective, the biggest demand area this cycle has been $45K to $50K.
Why this zone matters:
- ETFs were approved here.
- August 2024 crash bottom formed here.
- Institutions accumulated heavily here.
- Whale buying was strongest here.
This is the price range large players are most likely to defend.
THIS CYCLE IS NOT PLAYING OUT NORMALLY
There are major structural differences vs. past 4-year cycles: Bitcoin made a new ATH before the halving (never happened before).
Post-halving Q4, usually bullish, was negative this time.
Bitcoin started dropping earlier than expected. Many altcoins topped before Bitcoin’s ATH.
This tells us one thing:
This cycle is front-running expectations. So the bottom timing may also come earlier than people expect.
SO WHEN COULD THE BOTTOM FORM?
Most people are waiting for a classic Q4 bottom. But based on the current structure, the bottom could form earlier. Estimated window → August to September
Markets tend to front-run consensus timelines. So both price and time could bottom sooner than the majority expects.
PSYCHOLOGY AT THE BOTTOM
If Bitcoin enters $45K–$48K, you’ll start hearing calls for $30K, $25K, and even $20K.
Just like in November 2022: When BTC hit $16K, people called for $10K... $8K... $5K.
None of those levels ever came. Markets trap both sides.
So here’s the full picture:
Liquidity hasn’t turned positive yet. Onchain bottom signals aren’t fully hit. Mining cost floor sits lower. Institutional demand sits lower. Cycle structure is front-running.
This means:
The $60K move was likely just a local bottom.
The real cycle bottom is more likely below the $50K zone, possibly forming late summer to early fall, when liquidity conditions finally improve.
That’s the window where the market will fully reset before the next major expansion phase.

#TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned #USNFPBlowout #MarketRebound #OpenClawFounderJoinsOpenAI #TradeCryptosOnX

🐸 PEPE Tržní Zpráva: Žába Skáče, jak Objem Exploduje o 283% 📈
Sektor meme coinů zažívá obrovskou rotaci kapitálu, a PEPE vede tuto iniciativu! 🚀 S nárůstem ceny o 19% a ohromujícím 283% nárůstem obchodního objemu se PEPE rychle blíží tržní hodnotě 2 miliardy dolarů. 💰
📊 Rozdělení Dat
Aktuální Cena: $0.00000469 🟢 (+19.07% za 24h)
7-Denní Výkon: +23.28% 📈
Tržní Dominance: 0.083% 🌍
Obchodní Objem: $1.22B (Nárůst o 259%) 🔥
I přes to, že je o 19.5% pod svým 30denním maximem, Index Strachu a Chamtivosti se nachází na hodnotě 13 (Extrémní Strach). 😨 Historicky, pro "Chytré Peníze," extrémní zóny strachu představují ideální okna pro akumulaci před obratem trendu! 💎🙌

🇳🇱 Nizozemsko oznámilo daň ve výši 36 % na NEREALIZOVANÉ kapitálové zisky.

Pravidlo se vztahuje na akcie, ETF, úspory a kryptoměny. Každý rok vláda zkoumá, o kolik vzrostla hodnota vašeho portfolia, a zdaní tento zisk sazbou 36 %.

Takhle to funguje:

Pokud někdo investuje 100 000 € a do konce roku portfólio vzroste na 140 000 €, dluží daň z 40 000 € zisku, i když nic neprodal nebo žádné peníze nevybral.

Po prahu osvobození od daně ve výši 1 800 € se zdanitelný zisk stává 38 200 €. Při 36 % to znamená 13 752 € na zaplacených daních, i když nebyly vybrány žádné peníze z trhu.

After 12+ months of downside, broken charts, and collapsing sentiment, the structure under the Altcoin market is starting to shift.
The Others Dominance chart which tracks how altcoins perform relative to Bitcoin is flashing early signs of recovery.
Here’s what’s happening right now:
Others dominance has already reclaimed the levels we saw before the October 10th crash.
But, Bitcoin is still trading roughly 42% below its highs from that same period.
So while BTC is still structurally weak, Altcoins are already stabilizing and gaining relative strength. This divergence usually signals seller exhaustion.
If alts were still in heavy distribution, dominance would keep falling.
But it isn’t.
Instead, it has risen 17% in just the last two months which means the forced selling phase in alts may already be behind us.
We saw a similar setup in 2019-2020.
When the Fed ended QE, Bitcoin continued correcting for months. But the Others dominance bottomed and never revisited those lows again, not even during the March 2020 crash.
That marked the start of a multi year alt uptrend. Now add more bullish signals on top:
• RSI on Others dominance has crossed above its moving average for the first time since July 2023, historically this crossover has preceded alt strength phases.
• Russell 2000 just broke its highs after a delayed cycle, small caps often lead liquidity rotation before altcoins move.
• ISM has climbed to 52, highest in 40 months. A move above 55 historically aligns with strong performance in high-beta assets like alts.
• Core inflation just printed a 5-year low which could increase the odds of more Fed easing.
• Gold and Silver rallies are cooling and often this leads to a rotation from hard assets to risk assets.
Structurally, the market is reset:
Most altcoins are still down 80–90%. Leverage has been flushed. Sentiment is near cycle lows. Positioning is extremely light.
Historically, mid-term election year has been bearish for the crypto market, so it's possible that we could see more sideways accumulation until Q3/Q4 before a reversal.

🚨 WARNING: A BIG STORM IS COMING!!!
Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates to 1.00% in April, according to Bank of America.
Japan hasn’t been at 1.00% since the mid 1990s.
And if you think Japan has no impact on global markets
YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG.
Let me explain this in simple words:
The last time Japan was in this zone, the world was already getting hit.
In 1994, bonds got wrecked in the “Great Bond Massacre” about $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value got wiped out.
Then in early 1995, stress kept stacking.
And the yen went NUCLEAR.
On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY hit about 79.75
a record low for the dollar.
Now here’s the part people forget.
Japan tried higher rates, then had to CUT again later that year
BOJ took the discount rate down to 0.50% in September 1995.
That one fact explains a lot.
Because when Japan tightens into a fragile setup, it doesn’t stay “local”.
Japan is the CHEAP MONEY hub.
And Japan is a GIANT global holder.
Japan owns about $1.2 TRILLION of U.S. Treasuries.
So if Japan tightens, the whole world feels it through funding and flows.
THIS IS A WARNING.
Not because “rates went up”.
Because the last time we were here, the system was already under stress
and it forced reactions fast.
Markets are not pricing it now.
But they will.
I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October $BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.

I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

🚨POWELL IS IN A BIG TROUBLE NOW.

Just now, US CPI and Core CPI data got released.

CPI came in at 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected, while Core CPI came in at 2.5% vs. 2.5% expected.

The US CPI is now at its lowest level since April 2025, right before when tariffs were imposed.

Core CPI is at its lowest level in almost 5 years, when the entire US economy was in lockdown.

This means, despite the Fed's claims of inflation heating up, it's trending lower.

Meanwhile, the other aspect of the US economy is breaking.

The labor market is getting worse.

Credit card delinquencies are rising.

Corporate bankruptcies are hitting 2008 crisis levels.

This is a clear sign that the Fed has committed a huge policy mistake.

The Fed has been hawkish for longer than expected, which is harming the US economy.

In 2020-21, they remained dovish longer than expected, which caused inflation to spike.

This time, the real risk is deflation, which is far worse than inflation.

With each passing day, it feels like Trump's comments around "Too Late Powell" are true.

#CZAMAonBinanceSquare #TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned #CPIWatch #USTechFundFlows #WhaleDeRiskETH

NOVINKA: Korporátní selhání v USA a stres spotřebitelů právě dosáhly úrovní krize, nejhorší od roku 2008.
Během pouhých posledních 3 týdnů podalo 18 velkých společností, z nichž každá má závazky přes 50 milionů dolarů, žádost o bankrot. Jen minulý týden šlo do bankrotu 9 velkých amerických společností.
To posunulo 3týdenní průměr na 6, nejrychlejší tempo velkých bankrotů od pandemie v roce 2020. Pro představu, nejhorší období tohoto století bylo během finanční krize v roce 2009, kdy 3týdenní průměr dosáhl vrcholu na 9.
Jsme tedy na úrovních vrcholu krize.

GOLD HAS ENTERED THE SAME ZONE WHERE EVERY MAJOR BULL RUN HAS HISTORICALLY ENDED.
Last month, Gold just hit a new cycle high near $5,600, and is still up +427% in this 2016 → 2026 run.
Now zoom out on what this chart is really showing:
1) Gold moves in decade long super runs
1970 → 1980: +2,403%
2001 → 2011: +655%
2016 → 2026: +427% (so far)
Different decades. Same pattern: gold doesn’t trend up forever. It tends to run hard for 9-10 years, then cool off for years and sometime decades.
BUT WHAT USUALLY ENDS A GOLD SUPER RUN?
It’s usually a mix of:
- Inflation finally cooling
- Real rates moving up
- The Fed getting tighter for longer
- The dollar stabilizing
- Tisk appetite coming back
That’s why gold peaks often show up around major policy shifts.
When gold topped in 1980, it wasn’t the end of markets. It was the start of a long rotation: gold cooled off, stocks entered a long uptrend that lasted for 20 years.
When gold topped again in 2011, we saw a similar shift: gold went sideways/down for years, stocks went into a long bull trend through the 2010s and beyond.
So the historical pattern looks like this:
Gold super run ends → capital rotates back into growth assets → equities get a long runway.
Currently gold recently pushing to a new high area ($5.6k) after a strong multi year climb. That doesn’t confirm a top by itself.
But it does tell you something important: We are no longer early in this move.
THE BIG DIFFERENCE THIS TIME: In 1980, there was no crypto. In 2011, Bitcoin was still tiny and ignored. In 2026, crypto is a real market with: institutional participation, ETFs and big platforms, public companies holding BTC, a much bigger investor base than any prior cycle.
So if the classic post gold rotation happens again…
This time it may not be: Gold → Stocks only
It could be: Gold → Stocks + Bitcoin + high beta crypto
Because crypto is now part of the risk-on world.
Gold has a history of 10 year super trends, When those trends mature, stocks often get a long runway.
This cycle is now in the same late stage decade window. And crypto is the new player that could absorb part of the next rotation.$XAU

🚨 VAROVÁNÍ: 100% DŮKAZ, CO DALŠÍHO ČEKAT NA STŘÍBRO!!!
Strávil jsem 41 hodin výzkumem tohoto, a čísla vypadají skvěle.
Objevil jsem metriky, které jsou příliš silné na to, abych je ignoroval, a data podporují vše, co říkám.
Odpojení papírového a fyzického stříbra dosáhlo extrému.
Sleduji tok prostředků pro signál kapitulace, který konečně prolomí mechanismus potlačení.
Zde jsou data týkající se skryté války mezi východem a západem:
PROČ ČÍNA POTŘEBUJE, ABY TO BYLO LEVNÉ
Většina maloobchodních investorů funguje na základě předpokladu, že Čína chce, aby stříbro vystřelilo.

🚨 POTVRZENÍ O UZAVŘENÍ VLÁDY USA NA 14. ÚNORA!
To může být nejhorší den roku 2026 pro trhy.
Pokud si myslíte, že je to „jen politika“, vzpomeňte si, co se stalo během předchozího uzavření:
→ HDP kleslo o 2,8 %
→ Trilliony smazány z akciového trhu
→ Krypto spadlo o 16 % za jeden den
Takto se „politika“ mění v plnohodnotný kolaps trhu:
Politické napětí vře a demokraté je využívají k zpomalení financování DHS v Senátu.
Ano, znovu.
A to je celý příběh.

🚨 PREZIDENT TRUMP 2026 PLÁN TRHU ÚNIK.

Mnoho lidí očekává, že trhy v roce 2026 výrazně vzrostou, ale budou se mýlit nějakou dobu.

Tady je, co Trump plánuje v roce 2026:

ČÁST 1: KOLAP

Právě teď se americká ekonomika již jeví slabá:

Propouštění roste.
Bankroty narůstají.
Kreditní selhání se hromadí.
Poptávka po bydlení se hroutí.
Prodávající domů výrazně převyšují kupující.

Kvůli tomu je slušná šance na korekci akciového trhu v příštích 2-3 měsících, podobně jako Q1 2025.

Americký trh práce vysílá hlavní signály recese.

Poptávka po práci je nyní slabší než úrovně viděné během recese v roce 2001.

Počet pracovních nabídek v USA právě klesl na 6,5 milionu, což je pokles o 386 000 pouze v prosinci, nejnižší úroveň od září 2020, zatímco během posledních 2 měsíců se nabídky propadly o 907 000.

Od vrcholu v březnu 2022 klesl počet pracovních nabídek o 5,6 milionu, což ukazuje, jak rychle se poptávka po práci ochladila.

Počty nabídek jsou nyní pod úrovněmi před pandemií, které byly viděny v letech 2018–2019.

Toto už není dobrý trh práce. Rychle slábne. Poměr volných pracovních míst k nezaměstnaným klesl na 0,87. To znamená, že je méně než 1 pracovní místo k dispozici na každého nezaměstnaného pracovníka.

#bitcoin Mohla dosáhnout dna po rozbití 12-měsíčního RSI
Bitcoin se zdá, že dokončil roční korekci po významném rozbití měsíčního RSI, přičemž struktura trhu nyní naznačuje potenciální býčí pohyb.
⬤ Bitcoin vypadá, že se konečně stabilizuje po přibližně 12 měsících v režimu poklesu. Kryptoměna mohla dosáhnout dna po rozbití své měsíční struktury RSI – vzoru, který historicky signalizuje konec dlouhodobých korekčních fází.
⬤ Měsíční RSI je makro momentum indikátor, který obchodníci s kryptoměnami pozorně sledují během hlavních cyklů Bitcoinu. Během posledního roku, $BTC zůstal uvíznutý v oblasti retracementu, zatímco jeho dlouhodobé momentum stále oslabovalo. Nyní, když RSI rozpadlo, naznačuje to, že korekční tlak, který na trh tlačil měsíce, by mohl být zcela vyčerpaný. To by mohlo znamenat skutečný zlom v tom, jak se trh chová dopředu.